Strategic Analysis of APAC Passenger Electric
             Vehicles Market: Fad or Reality?
                              ...
Focus Points

 Challenges and Solutions for EV Implementation
 Current Electric Vehicle Market Structure
 Product and Tech...
Challenges and Likely Solutions for EV Implementation – Infrastructure,
    Battery Costs, Standardisation are key challen...
Current Electric Vehicle Market Structure – Conglomeration of OEMs, Electric
Utilities, Government, Battery Manufacturers ...
Product and Technology Roadmap – OEMs and Suppliers are working
towards increased driving range and lower charging times g...
Scenario Analysis – Mass commercialisation of electric vehicles is likely to
happen during 2012-2013



            250
  ...
Japan and China to be the biggest markets for Electric Vehicles in APAC




            80000
                            ...
Infrastructure and Leasing Models in different APAC Regions – Conventional
business model is likely to be successful in AP...
Electric Vehicle market to create opportunities and attractiveness for industries
like telematics, mobile phones, fleet bu...
EV Customer Profile – Private

                                                                   OWNERSHIP & MAIN USAGE
 ...
Strategic Conclusions and Recommendations – Factors such as Government
support, technology standardisation and infrastruct...
Research Titles Available to Date and Planned:
  Each Study is Average of 500 research hours
 Already Published
 1.Strateg...
Next Steps

 Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep
 abreast of innovative growth opportun...
Your Feedback is Important to Us

           What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?

Growth Forecasts?

Competi...
Contact Us

   If you have questions or would like further information about anything we
   discussed, please send your qu...
Thank You

               THANK YOU




            We Accelerate Growth
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2009 05 Electric Vehicles In Apac – Fad Or Reality Frost & Sullivan

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Electric Vehicles (EV) are seen as a key future trend in the automotive industry in terms of oil independence.

Frost & Sullivan\'s Industry Manager, Vijayendra Rao, will share his views on challenges facing implementation of EVs in APAC, legislative, new business models, infrastructure trends emerging in APAC for implementation of EVs and threat analysis, and recommendations for EV manufacturers and suppliers.

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2009 05 Electric Vehicles In Apac – Fad Or Reality Frost & Sullivan

  1. 1. Strategic Analysis of APAC Passenger Electric Vehicles Market: Fad or Reality? Vijayendra Rao, Industry Manager Automotive & Transportation 27th May 2009 © 2009 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
  2. 2. Focus Points Challenges and Solutions for EV Implementation Current Electric Vehicle Market Structure Product and Technology Roadmap Scenario Analysis for Electric Vehicles in APAC Market Breakdown By OEM and Type of Electric Vehicle Infrastructure and Business Model Opportunities in EV Market EV Customer Profile Conclusions and Recommendations Existing and Planned Powertrain Topics Q&A 2
  3. 3. Challenges and Likely Solutions for EV Implementation – Infrastructure, Battery Costs, Standardisation are key challenges for EV implementation Electric Vehicle Market: Challenges and Solutions (APAC), 2008 Better Place has taken Lack of initiatives to set up infrastructu charging, swapping Mass commercialisation, re to High costs of stations in Australia, Standardisation and introduce batteries and Japan and likely to Leasing model is likely to electric Electric penetrate other APAC solve this issue vehicles Vehicles markets. OEMs and Battery Battery OEMs, suppliers are technology is Governments are working not advanced EV Technology is running test fleets extensively to enough to not proven and to showcase improve the range promote EVs consumers are consumers that EV and top speed of with higher wary of buying technology is EVs. BYD claims range and top Electric Vehicles proven for longer their EV e6 has speed viability range of 250 miles. EV Technology is a Most OEMs and suppliers medium-long term strategy Global economic Price of oil at present is have realised that EVs are rather than short term. In crisis is likely to put hovering around likely to be a future viable the coming years, Oil some of EV projects 50$/barrel that is likely to option and are not prices are likely to in the back burner act as barrier for EV shunning any projects due increase to up to 100- commercialisation 150$/barrel to the crisis. Source: Frost & Sullivan 3
  4. 4. Current Electric Vehicle Market Structure – Conglomeration of OEMs, Electric Utilities, Government, Battery Manufacturers required for increased electric vehicle penetration Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs and Government Others: e.g. Project Utilities OEMs Better Place Lower fuel Key Subsidies for dependency by Responsibility: EV purchase expanding the Key and Development of use of Responsibility: investment in Charging renewable R&D to Promotion of EV Infrastructure energy sources reduce use Supplies emissions Development of infrastructure to performing distribute their batteries energy Infrastruct Charging Station Battery Government Manufacturers ure Manufacturers supplier Could work to improve charging time and safety Source: Frost & Sullivan 4
  5. 5. Product and Technology Roadmap – OEMs and Suppliers are working towards increased driving range and lower charging times going forward Driving Distance/charge-up to 60 kms Up to 130 kms 200 + kms Performance Charge Time – 6 to 8 hrs < 1 hour < 30 minutes Battery Capacity – up to 16kWh Up to 50 kWh 50 kWh + Motor Power- Up to 70 kW 70 kW – 140 kW Slow charging - onboard Infrastru Fast charging – mostly off board cture Battery Swapping Products Source: Frost & Sullivan Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle City Electric Vehicle Range extended Electric Vehicle 2005 2010 2015 5
  6. 6. Scenario Analysis – Mass commercialisation of electric vehicles is likely to happen during 2012-2013 250 Unit Shipments (Thousands) Volumes doubling Source: Frost & Sullivan due to early market entrants Volumes by Small OEMs- Identical in all 3 scenarios 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Conservative Frost & Sullivan Optimistic 6
  7. 7. Japan and China to be the biggest markets for Electric Vehicles in APAC 80000 ~170K 70000 21% 60000 50000 40000 30000 75% 20000 650 10000 0 4% Japan China India Korea Australia Others 2015 2008 NEVs CEVs PHEVs Others include Malaysia, Singapore NEV Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle CEV City Electric Vehicles eREV/PHEV Extended Range/ Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Source: Frost & Sullivan 7
  8. 8. Infrastructure and Leasing Models in different APAC Regions – Conventional business model is likely to be successful in APAC except Australia Country Infrastructure Business Model With Better Place entering the Australian market and working closely with utility OEMs/ Distributors, Battery companies and government, Australia is well positioned to provide infrastructure Leasing, Battery+Car Leasing to electric and plug-in hybrids in the coming years. OEMs and Government is working on pilot projects to provide infrastructure to OEMs/Distributors, Battery electric and plug-in hybrids. Better place is also setting up swapping stations for Swapping long distance driving. There is no initiative either from government or any external agencies to set up OEMs/ Distributors, Battery recharging stations in India. However, Hero Group (2-wheeler manufacturer) has Leasing plans to set up recharging stations in India. China has a great potential in terms of electric vehicles mainly due to availability OEMs/Distributors of raw materials, advanced motor technologies, competitive prices. However there is no major initiative to set up recharging stations in China. There is a need for government initiatives to drive the growth of EV Market in China. South Korea is predominantly likely to adopt hybrid vehicles rather than electric OEMs/Distributors vehicles mainly due to the lack to infrastructure and no major initiative to set up charging stations in South Korea. 8
  9. 9. Electric Vehicle market to create opportunities and attractiveness for industries like telematics, mobile phones, fleet businesses Potential for businesses to enter New business opportunities for EV market with relatively low Utilities and Innovative financial- investment; strategise to partner leasing firms- To be resilient High with OEMs before it makes profits Utilities Leasing Potential to generate revenue Battery Businesses Rejuvenation Financial Fleet Businesses Medium Coach Recycling Service/ Builders Dealership Telematics Innovative model but due to Marketing Insurance demographics it requires good EV penetration and customer Low Mobile Phone utilization- to have high impact if Swap Stations successful Low Medium High Effort required to develop EV business Source: Frost & Sullivan : Size of the bubble represents the impact on EV market 9
  10. 10. EV Customer Profile – Private OWNERSHIP & MAIN USAGE • Driving the vehicle to work is his main priority • Shopping during weekends. DEMOGRAPHICS MOTIVATING FACTORS • Male/female falling under the age group of 26-45 • Contribution to environment yrs • Reduced fuel cost • Has a university degree • Savings on tax and other Govt subsidies • Earning between $50K - $100K. • Free from congestion charging • Resides in Urban Area (Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney) • Compact and ease in parking • Flat /semi-detached house residence Male/Female (26-45 yrs) FEEDBACK ON LEASING BATTERIES SUGGESTIONS ON EV IMPROVEMENT • Prefer to lease battery than source it directly • Reliability and after-sales service from manufacturer. • Latest battery to aid in greater distance travelled • Efforts to dispose and effect on environment • Improved and increased access to charging stations key reasons • Improved interior designs for greater experience • Navigation tools to improve access to P-O- I* NEEDS • Reliability, price and fuel economy were the most important issues considered while purchasing EV • Improved charging capability, provision of fast charger kits and maintenance free motors were features that consumers would consider to boost chances of EV purchase Source: Frost & Sullivan 10
  11. 11. Strategic Conclusions and Recommendations – Factors such as Government support, technology standardisation and infrastructure are likely to make electric vehicles a long viable solution OEMs have to push local governments for incentives, tax cuts to promote Electric Vehicles OEMs, Suppliers, Utility Technology Companies have to work standardisation is very closely to promote Electric critical to mass market EV Vehicles at a faster pace Recommendations Global economic downturn should not hamper OEMs Target Gen Y Customers market strategy in terms of as they are open to ideas EVs as EV is termed as in terms of battery medium-long term leasing, swapping sustainable solution Source: Frost & Sullivan 11
  12. 12. Research Titles Available to Date and Planned: Each Study is Average of 500 research hours Already Published 1.Strategic Assessment of European Passenger Electric Vehicles Market - May 2008 2.Strategic Analysis of European Market for Electric Corner Modules - Oct 08 3.Strategic Analysis of Global Market for Fuel Cell Electric - Aug 2008 4.World Hybrid/Electric Vehicle Battery Markets -Jun 2008 5.Strategic Analysis of In Car Green Technologies - Jun 2008 6.Advances in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (Technical Insights) 7.Global Market Analysis of Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Dec 2007 8.European Consumers’ Attitudes & Perceptions Towards Sustainability, Environment and Alternate Power-trains - Includes section on Electric Vehicles Research in Progress 1.Strategic Review of New EV Business Models in the Automotive Industry – Q1, 2009 2.Analysis of Electric Vehicles Infrastructure for Automotive Applications in Europe and Revenue Generation Opportunities for Utilities – Q1, 2009 3.Strategic Analysis of the Fleet Market Opportunity for Electric Vehicles in Europe – Q2, 2009 4.Asia Pacific Market Analysis for Electric Vehicles for Fleets and Private Consumer – Q1, 2009 5.North American Market for Electric Vehicles for Fleets and Private Consumer – Q2, 2009 6.VOC Study on EVs – Customers Interest in Electric Vehicles and Acceptability to New Business Models 7.The Generation Y Consumer: Future Vehicle and Features Choice and Brand Marketing Positioning Study – Consumer Study to have section on EVs – Q2, 2009 Note: new titles and schedule is subject to change and is not guaranteed 12
  13. 13. Next Steps Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news) Register for the next Chairman’s Series on Growth on 16 June 2009: The CEO’s Marketing Team: Spearheading Profitable Growth (visit http://www.frost.com/growthapac) Join us at a Growth, Innovation and Leadership 2009: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth (visit www.frost-gil.coml) Request a proposal for a Growth Partnership Service to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. (email apacfrost@frost.com) 13
  14. 14. Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan? Growth Forecasts? Competitive Structure? Emerging Trends? Strategic Recommendations? Other? 14
  15. 15. Contact Us If you have questions or would like further information about anything we discussed, please send your query to the email provided below and we will get back to you shortly. Alvin Chua Account Manager Automotive, Transportation & Logistics DID: +65 6890 0997 Mob: +65 9199 4566 eMail: alvin.chua@frost.com 15
  16. 16. Thank You THANK YOU We Accelerate Growth 16

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