1. 1 February 17, 2011 Charlene Li Founder and Partner Hot Or Not: Disruptive Technologies To Watch in 2011

2. 2 Source: Wordle.net

7. Likenomics evaluation 5 User experience impact - moderate People with high social currency will enjoy benefits, richer experiences, receive psychic income. People with low social currency will find ways to get it. Business model impact – moderate New economics create opportunity for people who understand Likenomics to leverage gas. The cost of accessing social currency will increase, and raise barriers to entry. Ecosystem value impact – none

8. Special deals for special people Group Buying, Flash Sales, Member Sales, etc. Gilt, Ruelala, iDeeli, Facebook Deals Local sales and retailers Group buying variation: Groupon and Living Social In-store check-ins: Shopkick and Checkpoints Dynamic pricing Off and Away and Swoopo Mobile price checking Amazon mobile apps, eBay platform New payment methods: Square and Facebook Credits 2) Buy 2.0 6

9. How shopping will change 7 Store knows it’s me I walk into the store And maps out planned and promoted products

10. Buy 2.0 evaluation 8 User experience impact - High New ways to buy and connect with each other and retailers. Business model impact – Moderate Acquisition costs can increase/decrease substantially with adoption. Increased noise/clutter requires more marketing. Ecosystem value impact – Moderate New entrants like GroupOn become intermediaries.

11. 9 3) Social Search – Beyond Friends Social sharing rises as a search ranking signal, esp in the enterprise Create a social content hub to gain traction Use microformats to highlight granularity (e.g. hProduct & hReview)

12. Social Search evaluation 10 User experience impact - Moderate Search becomes more useful, relevant to people. Business model impact – Moderate SEO takes on a different dimension, rewards companies with social currency, personalized experiences. Ecosystem value impact – Moderate New power brokers are social data/profile players who capture activity data and profiles. Google has little of either.

13. Social monitoring merges with Web analytics HOT: Omniture, Coremetrics/IBM, Webtrends Technology like Hadoop makes it easy for companies to tap “Big Data” E.g. New York Times making its archives public Twitter archived by Library of Congress Facebook Cassandra, Amazon Dynamo, Google BigTable Data visualization tools make it easy to digest Balancing privacy and personalization 4) Big Data 11

14. Big Data evaluation 12 User experience impact - Low Most users won’t directly experience Big Data. Business model impact – High New businesses and initiatives can be started at very low cost. Ecosystem value impact – Moderate Owners of Big Data repositories can assert control, demand payments for access.

15. 13 5) Enterprise Social Networking

16. Enterprise Social Networking evaluation 14 User experience impact – High Work gets social, employees get connected to each other. Business model impact – Moderate Work gets done faster, cheaper. New organizational structures and cultures emerge. Ecosystem value impact – Moderate Traditional enterprise application players face new, more nimble entrants.

17. 15 6) Game-ification

18. TurboTaxused “games” to encourage sharing and support 16 Social design can enter training, collaboration, support, hiring

19. Gamification evaluation 17 User experience impact – High Experiences get richer, more engaging Business model impact – Moderate Work gets done faster, cheaper. New organizational structures and cultures emerge. Ecosystem value impact – Low Service providers will remain focused, boutique firms.

20. 18 7) Print extensions QR Codes Imagine images as Bit.ly codes

21. Print extensions evaluation 19 User experience impact – Moderate Users get new ways to get information quickly. No need to download special software, understand quirky images. Business model impact – Moderate Leverage print investment to extend further into buying process. Impacts importance of SEO. Ecosystem value impact – Low Standards, not new service providers, play a role.

22. Print extensions evaluation 20 User experience impact – Moderate Users get new power, earn social status, when they become curators. Business model impact – Moderate Lower cost of acquisition. Ecosystem value impact – Moderate Standards, not new service providers, play a role.

23. 8)DIY and Co-creation 21

24. DIY an Co-creation evaluation 22 User experience impact – Moderate Users become more loyal/engaged with organizations that invite them in. Develop a sense of shared ownership in the success of the organization. Business model impact – High Reduced merchandising costs. Reduced marketing costs due to viral loop. Ecosystem value impact – Low Mostly home-grown, internal development.

25. 23 9) Curation

26. Curation evaluation 24 User experience impact – Moderate Users gain new power as market influencers. Business model impact – Low Low unless tapped as part of Co-creation initiative. Ecosystem value impact – Moderate Power shifts to users who steal attention and loyalty from established players.

27. 25 Not Hot Yet in 2011: Augmented Reality When scanning tech improves, will get hot

28. Augmented Reality evaluation 26 User experience impact – Moderate Still hard to use, limited availability. But when available, creates unique, new experience. Business model impact – Low Unclear if new experiences lower costs, raise revenues. Ecosystem value impact – Low Few intermediaries emerge in new experiences. Usually home-grown.

29. 27 To Watch: Quora – Quality Q&A? Monitor your brand Engage by being helpful

30. Summary of disruptions 28

31. Bonus #1: Transparency

32. 30 Bonus #2: Leadership How to be out of control and still in command

33. It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change. - Charles Darwin Preparing for disruption 31

34. Charlene Li charlene@altimetergroup.com charleneli.com/blog Twitter: charleneli For slides, send an email to slides@altimetergroup.com For more information & to buy the book visit open-leadership.com © 2010 Altimeter Group