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Fall TV Show Down Using Social Data To Predict This Season’S Tv Hits


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Sadly, summer is ending, but the fall season has several bright spots… including a vast array of new TV shows (more than 30 in all). Which shows are viewers excited to see? Can social media monitoring predict the next big thing that will knock Grey’s Anatomy and House off the top of the most viewed TV shows list?

Will ABC’s faux documentary My Generation live up to the buzz it generated early-on, or will Shatner’s Tweet-inspired show persevere? Will Boardwalk Empire continue HBO’s tradition of creating original and ground-breaking productions? We were wondering what the answers would be, so we ran an SM2 analysis of the most highly anticipated new TV shows for this fall.

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Fall TV Show Down Using Social Data To Predict This Season’S Tv Hits

  1. 1. Monitoring the buzz around the new shows from ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, FX, NBC & HBO Jim Reynolds
  2. 2. Details: • Keywords for Top Fall shows • Location Limited to US • SM2 Category Rules for Topic • 10 Weeks of Data • All Languages
  3. 3. Daily Volume Analysis: • Conversation primarily driven by other media types (CW community + friendfeed + delicious) • Early spikes resulting from summer previews of fall shows • Major spike on 9/7 focused on the premiere of Terriers on FX • Major spike on 9/8 – 9/9 focused on the premiere of Nikita/Hellcats
  4. 4. Share of Voice: Ranking The New Shows Analysis: 1. S#*! My Dad Says 18% 2. Hawaii 5-0 18% 3. Nikita - 14% 4. Hellcats - 13% 5. Boardwalk Empire - 8% 6. No Ordinary Family - 5% 7. Terriers – 4.6% 8. Undercovers – 4.4% 9. Outsourced – 4.2% 10. Blue Bloods – 4.2% 11. My Generation – 4.1% 12. Running Wilde – 3%
  5. 5. Analysis: • No Ordinary Family & My Generation are trending at a similar pace • Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is split nearly 50/50
  6. 6. Analysis: • S#*! My Day Says had an early lead but late in July Hawaii 5-0 took off, while Blue Bloods remained a distant third • Audience is 55% male • Sentiment is generally positive* *Sentiment Dictionary was modified for “S#*! My Dad Says”
  7. 7. Analysis: • Hellcats has the lead but Nikita just behind • Audience is 52% male – 48% female • Sentiment is predominately positive with a large increase around the premiere’s
  8. 8. Analysis: • Terriers dominates Running Wilde • Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is slightly more positive than negative
  9. 9. Analysis: • Boardwalk Empire has maintained consistent buzz that is slowly building before the premiere • Audience is 75% male • Boardwalk has the highest percentage of positive conversations among all shows
  10. 10. Analysis: • Undercovers has a slight lead due to an early spike, but Outsouced has taken the lead since • Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is primarily negative with the conversation focused on Outsourced
  11. 11. • Based on buzz alone, CBS seems to have a great shot at maintaining its leadership in prime-time television with consistently high ratings • HBO’s Boardwalk Empire has garnered the most positive sentiment • Based on the pre-premiere buzz, Running Wilde (FOX) and Outsourced (NBC) appear to have the highest chance to sink to the bottom