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SEO Keyword Research - Market Analysis and Forecasting

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SEO Keyword Research - Market Analysis and Forecasting

  1. 1. Keyword ResearchMarket Analysis and ForecastingAlejandro CarvajalAugust 2012
  2. 2. What we’ll talk about today … Purpose Goals Philosophy Principals Trend Analysis Conclusion
  3. 3. Preface
  4. 4. Preface This presentation is based on the economic theories on trading outlined in the book “Principals of Professional Speculation” The two main theories presented are: – The Austrian School of Economics (Fundamental) – Dow Theory (Technical)
  5. 5. Purpose
  6. 6. Purpose Provide - Analytical Framework by combining fundamental and technical principals for market analysis and keyword forecasting Deliver - Improved keyword research and organic search outcomes
  7. 7. Goals
  8. 8. Goal Principals Preservation of capital – Produce something (Content) – Risk/Reward analysis Consistent profitability – Capital management (Preserve gains, minimise losses) – Asset allocation Pursuit of superior returns – Aggressive risk taking with profits (increase size of position)
  9. 9. Philosophy
  10. 10. Philosophy Definition – Particular view of the world that you believe as the truth Because search is an inexact science and includes measures of subjectivity, each person has their own philosophy on KWR
  11. 11. Principals
  12. 12. Purpose of Principals  Principals act as screens for separating the essentials from the irrelevant and making sound marketing analysis and forecasting possible Fundamental Principals Technical Principals Market Analysis & Forecasting
  13. 13. Fundamental Principals
  14. 14. The Austrian School of Economics Universally valid economic theory Analysis of man and his choices/actions due to conditions of environment
  15. 15. First Guiding Principal“In general movements of the market are the result offundamental economic forces which in turn areconsequences of political actions and decisions”1. Sperandeo - Trader VIC II – Principals of Professional Speculation
  16. 16. CARS Program In the middle of the United States, Automobile Industry Recession (2008-2010) an upward trend is seen in “new car” search queries. “new car” searches Why?
  17. 17. CARS Programme Obama signs into law the Cars Allowance Rebate System (CARS)
  18. 18. Second Guiding Principals“In past events we can see what will happen in thefuture” “new car” queries peak in January “honeymoon” queries also peak in January1. Sperandeo - Trader VIC II – Principals of Professional Speculation
  19. 19. Third Guiding Principals“Recognize the existence of false belief, monitor itsprogress and act decisively just before everyone elsewakes up”1. Sperandeo - Trader VIC II – Principals of Professional Speculation
  20. 20. Google Wave
  21. 21. Technical Principals
  22. 22. What is Dow Theory? Dow theory states that there are three trends – Short-term trend (days to weeks) • Traders | Social Media – Intermediate-term trend (weeks to months) • Speculators | Events Based (seasonal peaks) – Long-term trend (month to years) • Investors | Vertical Campaign
  23. 23. What is Dow Theory? These three trends are in constant movement Vital to understand the nature and direction of the long-term trend for short and medium-term success. Long-term trend analysis includes – Market Perception (true or not) – Age (extent/duration) – Current Phase
  24. 24. Trend Analysis
  25. 25. Four Phases of the Market Long-term trend can be defined in four phases – Accumulated (acquired gradually) – Distributed (sold gradually) – Trending Up or Down – Consolidating (taking in a confirmed trend) If it is not trending it is drawing a line which means it is either accumulating, distributing or consolidating
  26. 26. Nature of Upward Trends Upward trend - movement consisting of higher highs and higher lows Higher Highs Higher Lows
  27. 27. Nature of Down Trends Downward trend - movement consisting of lower lows and lower highs Lower Highs Lower Lows
  28. 28. Nature of Trend Changes1. Movement must cross current trend line Upward trend – draw line from lowest low to highest minor low preceding highest high Downward trend – draw line from highest high to lowest minor high preceding lowest low2. Movement must stop making higher highs (upward trend)or lower lows (downward trend)
  29. 29. Nature of Trend Changes Choose period for consideration, either long-term, inter- mediate or short-term Failure to make Higher highs Upward trend Downward line Trend brakes trend line line Period of Confirmation of consideration trend change
  30. 30. Conclusion
  31. 31. Putting it all together Fundamental analysis - broad view of what is likely to happen Technical analysis - identify trends and potential for change Market psychology – recognize trend whose premise is false
  32. 32. Building a Strategy Bet on market cycle expectancy for greater gains. Speculate when high, sell when low. – More traffic when Ranked #1 in seasonal peak for keyword Make selections that move with general trend but to a greater extend – Be flexible enough to optimise for the inter-mediate trend cycle Take positions in both the broader market and individual stocks to limit risk – Optimise for both the short and long tail to limit risk