Weekly Conspectus April 19, 2014


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Weekly Technical Analysis Newsletter. We specialize in isolated symmetry wave patterns. This is for education purposes only. No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.

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Weekly Conspectus April 19, 2014

  1. 1. Æther Analytics Weekly Technical Conspectus publish date : 4/19/2014 Author : Alex Bernal, CMT alex@aetheranalytics.com 805.252.7161
  2. 2. DISCLAIMER The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (“we” or “us” ) believes reliable, but no representation is made by us that such information is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein. This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or otherwise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their own investment decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are denominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice and / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses. The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other participants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk. No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein. Report Details  Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included.  Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening  If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email alex@aetheranalytics. com Table of Contents Section 1 : Quick Table Summary Quick Glance Table Current Trade Setups Section 2 : Currencies AUDCAD AUDJPY AUDNZD AUDUSD EURAUD EURCAD EURGBP EURJPY EURNZD EURTRY EURUSD GBPAUD GBPCAD GBPJPY GBPNZD HKDJPY NZDJPY NZDUSD USDCAD USDHKD USDJPY USDMXN USDSGD USDTRY Section 3 : Energy Complex WTI Crude Brent Crude Section 4 : Financials 10 Year T Note 30 Year T Bond Ultra Bond Section 5 : Indices SP 500 Nasdaq 100 Russell 2000 DJIA VIX VXX VXZ Nikkei Shanghai Heng Seng Jakarta Section 6 : Metals Gold Silver
  3. 3. Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level Recommended Entry Price Current Stops Targets Quick NoteTime Frame AUDCAD Sell stop to entry 1.06 1/2 @ 1.04, 1/2 @ 1.05 0.99 & 0.96 Bearish butterfly pattern. Possible wave 3 of 5 so I would suggest 3/4 of normal position size if traded.Daily AUDJPY Entry 95.00 Triggered 1/2 @ 97.14 , 1/2 @ 97.63 (1) 93-92, (2) 89 -87 Trade is Live.Daily AUDNZD Fractals Exist but pattern rank is not high enough for trade suggestions. AUDUSD Entry 0.935 Triggered 1/2 @ 0.958, 1/2 @ 0.956 91 & 88 Trade is LiveDaily EURAUD Buy Stop Entry 1.488 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.5948 minimum Entry trigger very close to happeningWeekly EURCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias EURGBP Possible Three Drives Reversal Pattern EURJPY Clearly tracing out a corrective symmetrical triangle pattern. Breakout targets (150 or 134) long term EURNZD Buy Stop Triggered 1.605 1/2 @ 1.578, 1/2 @ 1.572 1.64 & 1.70 Trade is live.Daily EURTRY ABC corrective type structure. Slight upside bias. No trade suggestions currently EURUSD Sell stop entry 1.367 1/2 @ 1.415, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.24 Large Scale primary Gartley reversal pattern identified. Weekly scale Trade PRZ not Met yet.Weekly GBPAUD Small scale bullish crab reversal GBPCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias GBPJPY No tradable patterns. Downside bias GBPNZD Entry Triggered 1.953 1/2 @ 1.91 1/2 @ 1.92 2.00—2.03, LT 2.10 Trade is LiveDaily HKDJPY No tradable patterns. No bias NZDJPY Sell stop entry 86.00 1/2 @ 92.98, 1/2 @ 93.99 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave EW pattern with Bearish Harmonic within Wave 4 and 5. Great trade setupWeekly NZDUSD Entry triggered 0.864 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.885 0.876 & 0.86 Trade is LiveDaily USDCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias USDHKD No tradable patterns. Downside bias
  4. 4. Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level Recommended Entry Price Current Stop Target Quick NoteTime Frame USDJPY No tradable patterns. USDMXN Potential Bullish Gartley, Pattern rank is too low to suggest trade. USDSGD Potential Bullish Bat, PRZ Not Reached Yet USDTRY No tradable patterns. WTI CRUDE Sell stop entry 102.58 1/2 @ 106.96, 1/2 @ 107.61 99 & 94 High pattern rank Bearish Gartley. Great trade set up. Suggest 150% of normal position size . Very Close to triggeringDaily BRENT CRUDE Very complex pattern, no trade suggested. GOLD No tradable patterns. SILVER Buy stop entry 20.00 1/2 @ 18.51, 1/2 @ 18.90 22 & 24 Possible Bullish Bat, PRZ reached. Looking for a move through 20 to trigger buy stop to entryDaily 10 YEAR NOTE Bullish Bat Reversal confirmed, Minor Bearish cypher caused reversal. No trade Recommended 30 YEAR BOND Buy stop entry 135.16 131.16 142.16 Reverse Head and Shoulders breaking out, Small long trade suggestedWeekly SP500 No tradable patterns. NASDAQ 100 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended RUSSELL 2000 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended DJIA No tradable patterns. VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns. NIKKEI No tradable patterns. Downside bias SHANG HAI INDEX Sell stop entry 2185 1/2 @ 2261, 1/2 @ 2286 1980 Trade is LiveDaily HENG SENG No tradable patterns. No bias JAKARTA Sell stop entry 4704 1/2 @ 4151, 1/2 @ 5209 4000 ENTRY WAS NOT TRIGGERED YET. TRADE IS LIVE BOMBAY SENSEX No tradable patterns. Upside bias
  5. 5. Forex
  6. 6. AUDCAD - Extended Butterfly setting up here. Clear impulse wave up from January low. One could easily fit this wave structure as a possible wave 3 of 5 up secondary wave. I believe its still worth considering for a harmonic trade setup. We have a nice price / momentum divergence on the last up wave. Suggested sell stop to entry level is 1.016. Stop levels if triggered would be 1.0491 for 1/2 and 10452 for the remaining 1/2. Possible targets are .99 and .96.
  7. 7. AUDJPY - Trade was triggered on 4/15. Stops loss orders are live. Clear corrective type wave structure from A to D. X is very impulsive, which should contribute to a well behaved reversal here. Aggressive traders could dip in shorting here. For more conservative traders, waiting for a move below 95 is prudent. Sell stops to entry at 95, with stop loss levels at 97.14 for 1/2 the position and 97.63 for one half the position are calculated. Targets of 93 and 89.
  8. 8. AUDNZD - Smaller scale harmonic repeating fractal. Complex flat corrective EW structure. If AUD weakens across the currency matrix this could be a nice reversal. No Trade suggestion because pattern rank is too low.
  9. 9. AUDUSD- Entry was triggered at 0.9350 with targets of 0.91 and 0.88. suggested stops are now at 0.953 & 0.947
  10. 10. EURAUD - Buy stop entry at 1.488 still yet to trigger. Very nice AB = CD wave setting up here at .618% of the previous impulse wave. Clearly a nice area to get long with the prevailing trend. Detrended oscillator confirms a moderately oversold reading as well. Buy stop to entry at 1.488 is suggested with stops 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424. Minimum expected target is 1.59
  11. 11. EURGBP—Possible Minor wave three drive reversal pattern
  12. 12. EURJPY—Corrective Symmetrical triangle. Slight upside bias despite the double top underneath a major top formation.
  13. 13. EURNZD—Buy stop to entry was triggered 4/11/2014, stops are now at 1.578 for 1/2 the position and 1.572 for 1/2. Preceding structure lacks the traits of a 5 wave im- pulse or extension (blow off) at X so we are less confident in this particular trade.
  14. 14. EURUSD— Weekly scale corrective EW pattern suggests that the current up move from the 2012 low could be at a critical reversal juncture. The Gartley PRZ of 1.401 has not been tested yet but we think this pattern is of high enough rank to merit early short positions for aggressive traders. No formal trade is suggested yet until the PRZ is reached for conservative traders. But if the PRZ gets hit a sell stop to entry at 1.367 is what we calculate. Stops at 1.424 and 1.415 would be used if filled. Poten- tial downside targets could be 1.24 or new lows long term.
  15. 15. GBPAUD— Small scale crab caught a reversal here. No trade recommended due to low structure rating but suggested stops are shown for those whom want to take the risk.
  16. 16. GBPNZD— Buy stop to entry was triggered at 1.953. Current Stops at 1.92 and 1.91 Measured move targets at minimum at 2.00 and we suggest taking off 3/4 of the total position if this is reached since the target 2 is beyond what we see feasible in the next move.
  17. 17. NZDJPY— Very high ranking pattern symmetry. Clearly a 5 wave EW impulse with a “Bat-Crab” in between wave 3 and 5. When we get a high ranking Ew pattern that also has a Harmonic relationship in the 3—5 wave termination points it’s a very high conviction trade setup. We recommend 200% normal position size for ag- gressive traders. Sell stop to entry at 86.00, with stops at 92.98 & 93.99 respectively. Minimum expected targets are 78 and 70.
  18. 18. NZDUSD— Sitting on nice profits here. Sell stop to entry was triggered on 4/11/2014 at 0.8635. Stops are now at 0.876 and 0.86 Potential targets include 0.8472 and 0.8150
  19. 19. USDMXN— potential bullish Gartley pattern
  20. 20. USDSGD— potential bullish Bat, PRZ not yet reached
  21. 21. Commodities
  22. 22. WTI Crude Oil— FINGER ON THE TRIGGER! High pattern rank bearish Gartley pattern identified. Sell stop entry @ 102.58 suggested, with stops to be placed at 106.9 and 107.6 respectively. Possible targets include 99 and 94. Since the geometry of this pattern is in the higher quartile of our ranking system we suggest a 150% in- crease of normal position size for aggressive traders.
  23. 23. Gold— Down wave underway. Here are the potential fib extension zone levels.
  24. 24. Silver— Nice Bullish Bat setting up here . Suggested Buy stop entry 20.00 with stops at 1/2 @ 18.51, 1/2 @ 18.90 with Targets at 22 & 24.
  25. 25. US Ten Year Treasury Note—Bullish bat in early April reversed nicely but caught a bearish cypher in a minor wave. Looks like a potential wave 5 down move below recent lows
  26. 26. US 30 Year Treasury Bond—Weekly Reverse Head and Shoulders bullish breakout. Tested neck line and failed. Large primary butterfly held support and we are now seeing a bottom structure reversal. Small buy stop to entry at 135.16 is recommended with stops at 131.16, possible target measured move is 142.16. Alternative wave forecast maybe a ABC up retracement that could reverse to the downside and project towards 125.50
  27. 27. Indices
  28. 28. Nasdaq—Nice bounce off extended Bat ratios. No trade was recommended because pattern had low structure rank
  29. 29. Russell 2000—Nice Reversal off double bat measurements. No trade recommended because of low pattern rank.
  30. 30. SHANG HAI INDEX— Amongst the very complex structure here we have found a nice minor wave Bearish Bat pattern. The Sell stop to entry zone we suggest is 2185 with stops at 1/2 @ 2261, 1/2 @ 2286 Potential Targets are minimum at 1980. Trade is Live and aggressive traders can enter now. Conservative traders wait for anoth- er push through 2185.
  31. 31. Jakarta Index—Update : ENTRY Suggestion Not triggered yet. High ranking bearish Gartley pattern on the weekly scale. There is also nice symmetry inside the X and C legs. This indicates there is some well behaved wave energy occurring in this market and should be high conviction trade. We recommend %150 bigger position size than normal.
  32. 32. Symbol Entry Date Entry price Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L Notes EURNZD 4/11/2014 Buy Stop entry triggered 1.605 Stops at 1/2 @ 1.575, 1/2 @ 1.569 currently NZDUSD 4/11/2014 Sell stop entry triggered 0.8635 Stops currently at 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.885 AUDJPY 4/15/2014 Sell Stop entry triggered 95.00 Stop currently : 1/2 @ 97.14 & 1.2 @ 97.63 AUDUSD 4/17/2014 Sell Stop entry triggered 0.935 Stops currently : 1/2 @ 0.958 & 1/2 @ 0.956 NZDUSD 4/15/2014 Sell stop entry triggered 0.863 Stops currently : 1/2 @ 0.99 & 1/2 @ 0.885 Trade Log
  33. 33. Appendix Methodology & Strategy Harmonic— “any component of a periodic oscillation whose frequency is and integral multiple of the fundamental frequency.” “The periods of neighboring waves in price action tend to be related by the small whole number.” - J.M. Hurst Our aim with this report is to only focus on identifying the best possible trading patterns that are occurring in any given market. We utilize a variety of algorithms to find specific geometric ratio wave patterns that have favorable risk to reward projected movements. Most of our trades are harmonic patterns and ideal symmetry elliott waves in the tradition of H.M. Gartley, Larry Pesavento, Ross Beck, Scott Carney, R.N. Elliot, Ian Copsey & Bryce Gilmore. We blend all the best nuances that we have studied and thoroughly tested from each of the noted analysts and have also developed some proprietary tools of our own for trade qualification, entry and management. In terms of Elliot Wave theory we analyze waves in isolation for our primary trading time periods (daily & weekly). We don’t believe in the subjective nature of manually counting elliott waves but rather only focusing on 5 and 3 wave patterns that have perfect symmetry in regards to time and price. In essence we focus only on waves we recognize to have high probability fractal structures. Meaning only if specific geometric symmetry is identified we then investigate for a trade entry point. When the market is creating wave fractals that are not amongst our high probability pattern repertoire no trade is taken or forecasted. Pattern Rank—Our proprietary measurement system ranks patterns based on many variables within the internal structure as well as the macro technical environment (longer term waves & trend). We will highlight these patterns but if the rank is too low we will not recommend a trade. PRZ—Potential Reversal Zone, is also defined as our clearly defined level that a pattern must reach / test at least once in order to qualify as a harmonic pattern Trade Management We primarily recommend trades that have a minimum of 3 to 1 risk reward ratio. Initial risk (stop loss) levels we often utilize are (ATR 14, 1.618), (ATR 21, 1.272), (ATR 14, 2.5) (ATR 21, 3.0) from the entry price. Then a trailing stop from the current price is used with the ATR measures previously outlined. Entry technique is the only somewhat subject process in our trading methodology. Users should always be aware that if a trade risk to reward ratio is less than 3:1 then the entry point, risk point or minimum targets need to be revised. We always show 2 potential target areas for each trade. Once Target 1 has been reached we recommend at a minimum putting the trade stop loss at break even. Typically we take 1/2 the position off at Target 1 and trail stops until target 2 is reached or we get stopped out. Contact alex@whentotrade.com +1.805.252.7161 Skype : alexbernal0