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MENA Early Stage Data Handbook 2023 - Limited Release - Clearworld

  1. 35 charts and data insights to use in your operations and tactical decision-making 29 are published for the first time in MENA Edited By Eden Rabbie March 2023 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023Market conditions and available pipeline, valuation benchmarks, round sizes, founder dilution, matriculation rates, failure rates, success probabilities, and holding period from seed to series A to series B ―— with scientific reliability. Limited Release
  2. T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 ROADMAP Stress Testing January – March Stress-test the model’s margins of error against 2023 data not used in building the model 0.1 α β 1.0 Limited Release March Charts and overall insights shared with the community; PDF, LinkedIn, landing page, no marketing Full Release May – June Data on sectors, in-depth insights for application in ops, and methodology documentaiton In Vivo Q3 Joint project with a select VC partner to verify The Handbook’s usefulness in real world situations
  3. 3 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 HANDBOOK NAVIGATOR ※ Alpha Version (α) This version of The Handbook is at limited release stage. Charts and insights are finalized, and methodology remarks are mentioned in the footnote section of each slide. However, detailed sections such as sector data, in-depth insights and methodology documentation are scheduled for the full release. See: Roadmap Copyright © 2023 Eden Rabbie and Clearworld, PO Box 415816 Dubai, UAE. This document is not financial advice. You may use any part of this document for any purpose on condition that you link to it and cite it properly: Rabbie, Eden. (2023). The MENA Early Stage Handbook 2023. Clearworld. https://clear.world/handbook 05 Market Situation Pipeline noise, expected deal flow quality, viable pipeline by stage and geolocation 37 Crossing To Growth Stage Series A holding period, series A-to-B conversion success and failure rates, round and ticket size Seed Stage Conversion success and failure rates, premoney valuations, round and ticket size, dilution Highly Experimental Cutting-edge insights on limited data and wide margin of error for your experimenting: series A and B valuations and dilution 13 47 Ending Notes Why The Handbook was created, why this service is free, info on the datasets, Clearworld and Startup Report MENA The Road To Series A Seed holding period, seed-to-A conversion success and failure rates, round and ticket size 27 55
  4. 5 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 THE MENA VENTURE MARKET SITUATION
  5. 65% Noise 9% Zombie 26% Viable MARKET SITUATION 6 1. What dealflow to expect in the MENA venture space? ※ Active includes companies who report their status as “Active”, including who shutdown and neglect to update their public information (for details, see: Failure Rate) ※ VC minimum criteria: Not IT development companies, marketing agencies nor similarly non-product/non-tech-based companies ※ Zombie companies: Companies who are too old to raise seed (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of 1/1/2023 Dataset of MENA startups founded since 2008, size N=10276; 95% CI margin of error ±1%; classifier model performance: precision 93%, specificity 91%, FPR 8%  Below 60% Noise Rate on a per-cohort basis since the 2016 cohort 1/4th 1 out of every 4 companies who are still active and self-identify as ‘startup’ in MENA today are fit for VC minimum criteria NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  6. MARKET SITUATION 7 2. What dealflow quality to expect in the MENA venture space? Improved Quality: Dealflow noise has improved since 2016 Less new outsiders are coming in; the public knows better what a ‘startup’ should be like Dataset of MENA startups founded since 2008, size N=10276; cohort 95% CI margin of error max values -6.8/+7.5%; model performance: precision 93%, specificity 91%, FPR 8% 48% 52% 52% 52% 54% 56% 68% 70% 72% 75% 83% 84% 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Per-Cohort Noise Rate: Percentage of new additions of IT development companies, marketing agencies and similarly non-product/non-tech-based companies out of all companies who are listed on MENA startup discovery platforms for that year (2010-2021) NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE Noise Rate
  7. MARKET SITUATION 8 2,886 Active ventures in MENA today* Share UAE 42.9% Egypt 20.9% Saudi 12.8% Rest of MENA 23.4% Margin of error ±3% Unfunded & pre-seed Seed Series A Series B Post-B 3. Where to find active ventures? 43% of active ventures take home in UAE This share remains unchanged since 2017 * Additionally, 554 ventures (-7.5/+8%) are not VC-backed (PE, ICO, etc.) Dataset of MENA startups founded since 2008, size N=10276 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  8. 1804 -51/+50 858 -47/+49 153 -22/+25 56 -13/+17 15 -6/+10 62.5% Unfunded and Pre-seed 29.7% Seed 5.3% Series A 1.9% Series B 0.5% Post-B 9 MARKET SITUATION NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE Dataset of MENA non-noise startups founded since 2008, size N*=3624; active as of 1/1/2023 N=2886, 95% CI margin of error ±3%, ො 𝑝 95% CI margin of error max values ±2% Plenty of Supply For More Early Stage Investors Two thirds of startups in MENA are unfunded and pre-seed, while seed makes up 80% of the remaining pipeline 4. What stage are the active ventures in MENA?
  9. 1804 -51/+50 858 -47/+49 153 -22/+25 56 -13/+17 15 -6/+10 62.5% Unfunded and Pre-seed 29.7% Seed 5.3% Series A 1.9% Series B 0.5% Post-B 10 MARKET SITUATION NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE Dataset of MENA non-noise startups founded since 2008, size N*=3624; active as of 1/1/2023 N=2886, 95% CI margin of error ±3%, ො 𝑝 95% CI margin of error max values ±2% The Growth Stage Hurdle Ahead Series B deal flow* is increasing; now at 153 series A companies To put this in perspective, MENA had as many series B deals (≈149) in the last five years combined For early stage actors, this could be a bottleneck * Success and failure rates are covered in a later section
  10. 11 MARKET SITUATION NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 184 -24/+27 139 -21/+24 31 -9/+13 12 -5/+9 3 -2/+6 49.9% Unfunded + Pre-seed 37.7% Seed 8.4% Series A 3.3% Series B 0.8% Post-B 348 -33/+36 218 -26/+30 26 -8/+12 10 -4/+9 2 -1/+6 57.6% Unfunded + Pre-seed 36.1% Seed 4.3% Series A 1.7% Series B 0.3% Post-B 845 -47/+49 296 -30/+34 68 -14/+18 21 -7/+11 8 -4/+8 68.3% Unfunded + Pre-seed 23.9% Seed 5.5% Series A 1.7% Series B 0.6% Post-B UAEHastheLargest PipelineAcrossStages 1.2X the size of Saudi and Egypt combined 3.2X 1.7X 1.8X ACTIVE PIPELINE SIZE COMPARISON 5. Active Dealflow In MENA By Stage and Geolocation Dataset of MENA non-noise startups founded since 2008, size N*=3624; active as of 1/1/2023 N=2886, 95% CI margin of error ±3%, ො 𝑝 95% CI margin of error max values ±3% U A E S A U D I E G Y P T
  11. 13 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 SEED STAGE
  12. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success 34% 30% 60% 51% ConversiontoSeedinMENA Success 30% Failure 51% Danger Zone: By the end of 2023, 177 more startups will confirm failure – that’s 21% of the pipeline available today effectively getting written-off 14 SEED BENCHMARKS ※ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate: Counts companies who shutdown or are too old to raise seed (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of the measurement year, divided by the cohort size to which these companies belong to, pooled over a 5-yr window; measurement years are each year from 2019 to 2023 MENA startups sample size N=3663; conversions to seed o=1080 6. Matriculation: How many make it to seed stage, and how many never do? NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate Cohort ►
  13. 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 31% 27% 69% 57% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 42% 37% 53% 44% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 37% 30% 43% 35% Cohort ► See previous page for definitions and how calculations are done. MENA startups sample size N=3663; conversions to seed o=1080 SEED BENCHMARKS Pre-Seed Failure Rateis Coming Down Historical change reflects demand for seed deals across MENA; a sharp rise in the blue area shows peak investor interest Failure Rate = Success Rate = 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate 27% 57% 37% 44% 30% 35%  Highest  Highest U A E S A U D I E G Y P T NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  14. 16 Comparison: Years From Foundation Until First Seed Raise 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS 0 1 2 3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023  1.9  1.7  2  2.1 years 6. How old are the startups who get seeded in MENA? 1.7 Years in UAE, 2 Years Everywhere Else—In Line with Non-MENA The normal range in MENA is converging and increasing since 2018, now it is between 1 and 3 years  3  1.1 Age At First Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 UAE 1.6 1.7 Overall MENA 1.9 1.9 Non-MENA 1.9 2.0 Saudi 2.0 2.0 Egypt 2.0 2.1 75% of all MENA ≥ 1.0 ≥ 1.1 75% of all MENA ≤ 2.9 ≤ 3 PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA seed N=899, o=487; median absolute deviation 0.920, ො 𝜎 = 0.620 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  15. 17 SEED BENCHMARKS 13. How many investors participate in the seed round in MENA? One, and Rarely Above Three More Co-Invest: An uptrend led by Egypt startups is emerging, making having 2-3 investors split the round not uncommon L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2241; MENA disclosed seed rounds N=863, o=534; Egypt o=113 Investor Count At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 5 6 Egypt 1 2 Saudi 1 1 UAE 1 1 Overall MENA 1 1 75% of all MENA ≥ 1 ≥ 1 75% of all MENA ≤ 2 ≤ 3 Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% Historical Profile: Number of Investors at Seed Raise (left) with Detailed Profile 2022 (right) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  16. $0M $5M $10M $15M $20M $25M $30M $35M $40M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 18 SEED BENCHMARKS UAE Highest in MENA Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=133; o=92, median absolute deviation 2.50M, ො 𝜎 = 1.686 M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 7. What is the premoney valuation when raising seed in MENA? $3M The Normal Range in MENA is $1M to $9M UAE Leading: with a median of $5M and larger spread, UAE is well above MENA in seed valuations The Elite: 15% of seeded companies in MENA are spred across a wide span between $9M and $22M Companies above the $22M mark are outliers
  17. 19 Historical Profile: Premoney Valuation At Seed Round 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS  $3.4M  $8.4M  $2M Premoney Valuation At Seed Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $10M $9.5M UAE $6M $8.4M Overall MENA $3M $3.4M Saudi $2M $2M Egypt $1.4M $1.4M 75% of all MENA ≥ $9M ≥ $10M 75% of all MENA ≤ $1M ≤ $1.4M 8. Trends in MENA seed round premoney valuation for 2023 UAE valuations are increasing faster than elsewhere in MENA UAE prices are diverging, resulting in a very wide span between the median and the top 25% in MENA  $10M   $1.4M $0M $2M $4M $6M $8M $10M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023  $9.5M PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=133, o=92; median absolute deviation 2.50M, ො 𝜎 = 1.686 M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  18. $0M $1M $2M $3M $4M $5M $6M $7M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 20 SEED BENCHMARKS $870k The Normal Range in MENA is $250k to $2.2M Cheap Seeding in Egypt: At $500k, seed rounds in Egypt are the smallest, but with a huge spread The Elite: 15% of seeded companies are spred across a very wide span between $2.2M and $5M Companies who raise >$5.1M in seed are outliers Egypt Lowest in MENA Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො 𝜎 = 490 k 9. What is the funding size when raising seed in MENA?
  19. 21 Historical Profile: Round Size At Seed Raise 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS  $1M  $1.4M  $1.3M Round Size At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $1.9M $2M UAE $1.1M $1.4M Saudi $1.1M $1.3M Overall MENA $870k $1M Egypt $500k $625k 75% of all MENA ≥ $250k ≥ $400k 75% of all MENA ≤ $2.2M ≤ $2.5M 10. Trends in MENA seed round size for 2023 Money Raised at Seed Stage is Going Higher, Most Significantly in Saudi The wide span between the average and the top 25% gives lots of room for elite startups to raise more  $2.5M  $400k  $2M $0M $1M $2M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023  $625k PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො 𝜎 = 490 k
  20. 22 SEED BENCHMARKS 12.3% The normal dilution range in MENA is 5.4% to 21% Buyer Power in Saudi: With a median of 16%, dilution in Saudi is significantly higher than MENA Seller Power: 15% of seeded companies raise at exceptionally low dilution between 2.6% and 5.4% Above 21% is rare, while >43.5% is outlier territory L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=116, o=78; median absolute deviation 7.62%, ො 𝜎 = 5.14 % ; Saudi o=9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Saudi Highest in MENA Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 11. What is the expected dilution when raising seed in MENA?
  21. 23 Historical Profile: Dilution At Seed Raise 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS  11.3%  11%  16% Dilution At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Saudi 16% 16% Overall MENA 12.3% 12.3% Egypt 9% 12% Non-MENA 10.6% 11.3% UAE 11.7% 11% 75% of all MENA ≥ 5.4% ≥ 5.7% 75% of all MENA ≤ 21% ≤ 22% 12. Trends in MENA seed round dilution for 2023 11-12% dilution across MENA is similar to abroad, with one exception: Saudi Despite the massive demand shock from PIF, Saudi startups don’t get the best terms on seed dilution; Egypt shows significant rise nudging closer to Saudi, while UAE posts the lowest seed dilution in MENA  22%  5.7%  12.3% L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=116, o=78; median absolute deviation 7.62%, ො 𝜎 = 5.14 % ; Saudi o=9  12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PROJECTION NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  22. $0.0M $0.5M $1.0M $1.5M $2.0M $2.5M $3.0M $3.5M $4.0M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 24 SEED BENCHMARKS $500k The Normal Seed Ticket Range in MENA is $190k to $1.1M UAE Big Spread: 40% of seeded UAE companies are spred across a massive span between $630k and $3.5M, setting UAE’s outlier threshold to above $3.5M Seed rounds with >$2.5M tickets in MENA are outliers Egypt Lowest in MENA Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො 𝜎 = 490 k 14. What is the ticket size when doing a seed round in MENA? NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  23. $0.00M $0.25M $0.50M $0.75M $1.00M $1.25M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25 Historical Profile: Ticket Size At Seed Raise (Uniform Split Among Participants) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED BENCHMARKS  $525k  $670k  $800k Ticket Size At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Saudi $560k $800k UAE $625k $670k Overall MENA $500k $525k Non-MENA $310k $320k Egypt $250k $330k 75% of all MENA ≥ $190k ≥ $250k 75% of all MENA ≤ $1.1M ≤ $1.3M 15. Trends in MENA seed round tickets size for 2023 Up and Up: Seed Tickets in Saudi are Getting Expensive, Leapfrogging UAE This further highlights the high demand and entry requirements for Saudi seed stage investing Note how seed tickets in MENA are more expensive than Non-MENA since 2020  $1.3M  $250k  $330k PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=863, o=534; median absolute deviation 727k, ො 𝜎 = 490 k NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  24. 27 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 THE ROAD TO SERIES A
  25. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success 14% 14% 65% 52% 28 SEED/A BENCHMARKS MovingFromSeedtoSeriesA Success 14% Failure 52% Danger Zone: In 2024, 151 more seed startups will confirm failure – that’s 27% of the pipeline available today effectively getting written off ※ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate: Counts seed ventures who shutdown or are too old to raise series A (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of the measurement year, divided by the cohort size to which these companies belong to, pooled over a 5-yr window; measurement years are each year from 2019 to 2023 MENA seed-funded sample size N=1080; conversions seed to A o=130 16. Matriculation: How many move from seed to series A, and how many never do? ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate Cohort ► NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  26. 29 Cohort ► See previous page for definitions and how calculations are done. MENA seed-funded sample size N=1080; conversions seed to A o=130 SEED/A BENCHMARKS At70% FailureRate, EgyptSeed Ventures NeedMore Attention Seed-to-A success rate is highest in countries who actively work on developing their post-seed environment Failure Rate = Success Rate = 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate 18% 53% 16% 45% 8% 79%  Highest  Highest 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 15% 18% 55% 53% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 35% 16% 70% 45% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9% 8% 76% 79% U A E S A U D I E G Y P T NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  27. 0 1 2 3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 30 Comparison: Years From First Seed Raise Until First Series A Raise 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SEED/A BENCHMARKS  2.2  2.5 years   2.1 17. How long does it take to move from seed stage to series A in MENA? Seed Holding Period: 2.5 Years in Saudi, 2 Years Everywhere Else The normal range in MENA is stable since 2020, roughly between 1 and 3 years  3.2  1.3  1.4 Seed Holding Period To Series A (Years) 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 1.6 1.4 UAE 1.9 2.1 Egypt 1.9 2.1 Overall MENA 2.0 2.2 Saudi 2.0 2.5 75% of all MENA ≥ 1.0 ≥ 1.3 75% of all MENA ≤ 2.9 ≤ 3.2 L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA converted seed to series A N=130; o=101, median absolute deviation 0.843, ො 𝜎 = 0.569 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  28. 31 SERIES A BENCHMARKS 20. How many investors participate in the series A round in MENA? Three, and Rarely Above Five—Except In Egypt The normal range in MENA has converged between 1 and 5 co-investors per series A round Egypt companies are seeing more co-investing at series A, making up to 8 co-investors not as rare L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2241; MENA disclosed series A rounds N=392, o=134; Egypt o=31 Investor Count At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 6 6 Egypt 3 4 Overall MENA 3 3 UAE 2 2 Saudi 2 2 75% of all MENA ≥ 1 ≥ 1 75% of all MENA ≤ 5 ≤ 5 Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% Historical Profile: Number of Investors at Series A Round (left) with Detailed Profile 2022 (right) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* 0 5 10 15 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  29. 32 SERIES A BENCHMARKS $6.7M The normal range in MENA is $2.4M to $15M More Funding in UAE …and Egypt: Through only 8% seeded companies make it to series A in Egypt, their funding spread is similar to that in UAE The Elite: 15% of series A companies are spred across a wide span between $15M and $27M Companies who raise >$34M at series A are outliers L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 4.681M, ො 𝜎 = 3.157 M $0M $5M $10M $15M $20M $25M $30M $35M $40M $45M $50M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% UAE Highest in MENA 18. What is the funding size when raising series A in MENA?
  30. 33 Historical Profile: Round Size At Series A Round 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A BENCHMARKS  $7M  $10M  $7.2M Round Size At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $10M $10M UAE $10M $10M Egypt $7M $9M Saudi $7.2M $7.2M Overall MENA $6.7M $7M 75% of all MENA ≥ $2.4M ≥ $3M 75% of all MENA ≤ $15M ≤ $16M 19. Trends in MENA series A round size for 2023 Money Raised at Series A Has Rallied Since 2020, Most Significantly in Egypt Series A rounds in UAE are similar in size to non-MENA series A where the same investors deploy  $16M  $3M  $9M PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 4.681M, ො 𝜎 = 3.157 M $0M $5M $10M $15M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
  31. $0M $2M $4M $6M $8M $10M $12M $14M $16M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 34 SERIES A BENCHMARKS $2.2M The normal range in MENA is $1.2M to $5M Volatility on the Way Up: Series A ticket sizes are witnessing significant volatility with an increasing number of above average tickets Tickets above $10M at series A are outliers, though are becoming less unlikely L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 1.236M, ො 𝜎 = 0.833 M Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% UAE Highest in MENA 21. What is the ticket size when doing a series A round in MENA? NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  32. $0M $1M $2M $3M $4M $5M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35 Historical Profile: Ticket Size At Series A Round (Uniform Split Among Participants) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A BENCHMARKS  $2.5M  $3M  $2.7M Ticket Size At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 UAE $3.0M $3.0M Saudi $2.3M $2.7M Overall MENA $2.2M $2.5M Egypt $2.2M $2.3M Non-MENA $1.7M $1.7M 75% of all MENA ≥ $1.1M ≥ $1.4M 75% of all MENA ≤ $4.8M ≤ $5.0M 22. Trends in MENA series A ticket size for 2023 Series A Tickets 2019 Rally Continues in MENA As of 2021, series A tickets in MENA are pricier than non-MENA where the same investors deploy  $5M  $1.4M  $2.3M PROJECTION  $1.7M L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=202, o=134; median absolute deviation 1.236M, ො 𝜎 = 0.833 M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  33. 37 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 CROSSING TO GROWTH STAGE
  34. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success 38% 27% 34% 33% 38 SERIES A/B BENCHMARKS AdvancingFromSeriesA Success 27% Failure 33% Danger Zone: By 2024, 26 more series A ventures will confirm failure – that’s 28% of the viable pipeline available today ※ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate: Counts series A ventures who shutdown or are too old to raise B or above (exceeded the anomaly upper bound defined as quartile 3 + 1.5 IQR) as of the measurement year, divided by the cohort size to which these companies belong to, pooled over a 5-yr window; measurement years are each year from 2019 to 2023 MENA series A-funded sample size N=236; conversions to next stage o=69 23. Matriculation: How many move from series A to B, and how many never do? ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate Cohort ► COUNT < 5 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  35. 39 Cohort ► U A E See previous page for definitions and how calculations are done. MENA series A-funded sample size N=236; conversions to next stage o=69 SERIES A/B BENCHMARKS Advancing ToGrowth StageStill Hasthe Fewest Crowd 46% of MENA exits after series A are series A ventures who don’t make it to series B Failure Rate = Success Rate = 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Failure Too early to call Success ▬ Failure 5-yr Moving Rate ▬ Success 5-yr Moving Rate 32% 28% 21% 20% 26% 20%  Highest  Highest 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 41% 32% 37% 28% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 41% 21% 50% 20% COUNT < 5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 40% 26% 31% 20% COUNT < 5 COUNT < 5 S A U D I E G Y P T NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  36. 0 1 2 3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 40 Comparison: Years From First Series A Raise Until the Next Stage Raise (Most Commonly Series B) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A/B BENCHMARKS   1.6  2.1 years  1.7 24. How long does it take to move from series A to the next stage in MENA? Series A Holding Period: 2 Years in Saudi, Less Than 2 Years Everywhere Else Median outside Saudi is converging rapidly; the entire MENA range is roughly between 1 and 2.5 years  2.6  1.2  1.4 Series A Holding Period To Next (Years) 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 1.4 1.4 UAE 1.6 1.6 Overall MENA 1.9 1.6 Egypt 2.0 1.7 Saudi 2.3 2.1 75% of all MENA ≥ 1.0 ≥ 1.2 75% of all MENA ≤ 2.9 ≤ 2.6 L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA converted series A to next stage N=69, o=60; median absolute deviation 0.778, ො 𝜎 = 0.524 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  37. 41 SERIES B BENCHMARKS 27. How many investors participate in the series B round in MENA? Four, and Rarely Above Six The normal range in MENA has converged between 2 and 6 co-investors per series B round Saudi series B rounds are seeing significant increase in co-investors L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2241; MENA disclosed series B rounds N=78, o=59; Saudi o=11 Investor Count At Series B Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA 6 6 Saudi 5 5 UAE 4 5 Overall MENA 4 4 Egypt 4 4 75% of all MENA ≥ 1 ≥ 1 75% of all MENA ≤ 6 ≤ 6 Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% Historical Profile: Number of Investors at Series B Round (left) with Detailed Profile 2022 (right) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  38. 42 SERIES B BENCHMARKS $15M The normal range in MENA is $6M to $30M Similar Spreads: All MENA ranges are similar, with notable concentration towards the lower end in Egypt The Elite: 15% of companies are spred across a moderate span between $30M and $50M Companies who raise >$66M at series B are outliers L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 10.500M, ො 𝜎 = 7.082 M $0M $10M $20M $30M $40M $50M $60M $70M $80M $90M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% Egypt Concentration in the lower quartile 25. What is the funding size when raising series B in MENA?
  39. 43 Historical Profile: Round Size At Series B Round 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES B BENCHMARKS  $17M  $21.6M  $19.5M Round Size At Series B Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $23M $22M UAE $20M $21.6M Saudi $19M $19.5M Overall MENA $15M $17M Egypt $8M $10M 75% of all MENA ≥ $6M ≥ $7M 75% of all MENA ≤ $30M ≤ $31M 26. Trends in MENA series B round size for 2023 Money raised at series B in an uptrend since 2020, similar to the series A trend Series B rounds in UAE are similar in size to non-MENA series B where the same investors deploy  $31M  $7M  $10M PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 10.500M, ො 𝜎 = 7.082 M $0M $10M $20M $30M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023  $22M
  40. $0M $5M $10M $15M $20M $25M $30M $35M $40M UAE Saudi Egypt MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 44 SERIES B BENCHMARKS $4M The normal range in MENA is $2M to $11M Volatility in UAE: Compared to tight markets elsewhere in MENA, series B tickes in UAE are spred very widely, thanks to MENA fintechs choosing to be domiciled in UAE before series B Tickets above $24M at series B are outliers in MENA L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 2.666M, ො 𝜎 = 1.798 M Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% UAE Highest in MENA 28. What is the ticket size when doing a series B round in MENA? NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  41. $0M $2M $4M $6M $8M $10M $12M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 45 Historical Profile: Ticket Size At Series B Round (Uniform Split Among Participants) 5-yr Moving Median Across MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES B BENCHMARKS  $5M  $4M Ticket Size At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 UAE $5.8M $5.1M Non-MENA $4.4M $4.8M Saudi $4.4M $4.1M Overall MENA $4.2M $4.2M Egypt $2.3M $3.4M 75% of all MENA ≥ $2.0M ≥ $1.9M 75% of all MENA ≤ $10.9M ≤ $10.4M 29. Trends in MENA series B ticket size for 2023 Wide Range, But Strong Convergence at $4M Matching Non-MENA Tickets Taking medians, series B tickets in MENA are pretty much standard, especially with Egypt catching up  $10M  $1.9M  $3.4M PROJECTION L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=78, o=59; median absolute deviation 2.666M, ො 𝜎 = 1.798 M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE
  42. 47 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL USE ONLY FOR FURTHER INVESTIGATION
  43. $0M $25M $50M $75M $100M $125M $150M $175M $200M $225M $250M $275M $300M $325M MENA Non-MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 48 SERIES A BENCHMARKS $11M The normal range in MENA is $6M to $24M The Elite: 15% of companies are spred across a very wide span between $24M and $154M Companies above the $52M mark are outliers ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable to use for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=19, o=14; median absolute deviation 9.750M, ො 𝜎 = 6.576 M Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 30. What is the premoney valuation when raising series A in MENA? HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  44. 49 Historical Profile: Premoney Valuation At Series A Round 5-yr Moving Median MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A BENCHMARKS  $9.2M  $4.3M 31. Trends in MENA series A round premoney valuation for 2023 Series A Premoney Valuations Might Be Coming Down The premoney range is shrinking, reflecting a monetary-tightening, risk-averse sentiment  $19.5M  $73M PROJECTION ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable to use for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed seed N=19, o=14; median absolute deviation 9.750M, ො 𝜎 = 6.576 M $0M $10M $20M $30M $40M $50M $60M $70M 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Premoney Valuation At Series A Round 2022 and 2023 Non-MENA $73M $73M Overall MENA $11M $9.2M 75% of all MENA ≥ $6M ≥ $4.3M 75% of all MENA ≤ $24.5M ≤ $19.5M NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  45. 50 SERIES A BENCHMARKS ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=17, o=12; median absolute deviation 7.95%, ො 𝜎 = 5.36 % 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% MENA Non-MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE 32. What is the expected dilution when raising series A in MENA? 18.2% Series A normal dilution range in MENA is 8.9% to 22.8% Seller Power: 15% of companies raise at exceptionally low dilution between 7.4% and 8.9% Above 23% is rare, while >28% is outlier territory HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  46. 51 Historical Profile: Dilution At Series A Raise 5-yr Moving Median MENA Ventures vs Non-MENA Ventures* SERIES A BENCHMARKS  14% Dilution At Seed Raise 2022 and 2023 Overall MENA 18% 19% Non-MENA 14% 14% 75% of all MENA ≥ 5.4% ≥ 25% 75% of all MENA ≤ 21% ≤ 22% 33. Trends in MENA series A round dilution for 2023 19% Dilution Across MENA is Higher Than Series A Abroad Dilution is stable since 2018, while a contracting range indicates more standardization of deal terms  25%  11%  19% ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; however, the interquartile range is reliable for rest of MENA and for use in further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series A N=17, o=12; median absolute deviation 7.95%, ො 𝜎 = 5.36 % 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  47. $0M $100M $200M $300M $400M $500M $600M $700M $800M $900M $1,000M $1,100M $1,200M $1,300M $1,400M $1,500M $1,600M $1,700M $1,800M MENA Non-MENA 2023 Median Anomaly 52 SERIES B BENCHMARKS ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; data can be used to guide further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt; non-MENA data is reliable L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=9, o=7; median absolute deviation 69.9M, ො 𝜎 = 47.1 M Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL 34. What is the premoney valuation when raising series B in MENA? $70M The normal range in MENA is $39M to $315M The Elite: 15% of companies are spred across a narrow span between $315M and $384M Companies above the $730M mark are outliers
  48. 53 SERIES B BENCHMARKS ※ Less than 5 records from Saudi and Egypt; data can be used to guide further treatment to cover Saudi and Egypt; non-MENA data is reliable L-estimators on 5-yr moving basis ending 1/1/2023; sample size N*=2934; MENA disclosed series B N=9, o=7; median absolute deviation 7.33%, ො 𝜎 = 4.95 % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% MENA Non-MENA 2023 Median Anomaly Top 10% Top 25% Median Lowest 25% Lowest 10% 35. What is the expected dilution when raising series B in MENA? 19-24% The biggest chunk of companies in MENA raise series B at 19.3% to 24% dilution Series B normal dilution range is 19.3% to 46%, 24% being the midpoint Above 47% is rare, and below 15.5% is very rare NOT PUBLISHED BEFORE HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL
  49. 55 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 ENDING NOTES
  50. 10,276 Companies Self-identifying as ‘startup’, founded in MENA since 1/1/2008 3,663 are startups 6,613 are not, but are used in hypothesis testing 1,140 Non-MENA Non-MENA startups whose cap table includes investors from MENA or investors active in MENA Used for comparisons, benchmarks and hypothesis testing 1,345 Investors From MENA or active in MENA after 1/1/2010 344 MENA-based firms 1,001 Non-MENA firms 5,157 Funding Rounds Announced after 1/1/2010 2,930 seed to post-B 1,642 with MENA ventures 1,288 Non-MENA ventures T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E DATA HANDBOOK 2023 THE DATASETS ※ The Clearworld Model is a data enrichment model built on top of publicly-accessible data from Crunchbase Pro. The Model with its 160 enrichment features is a proprietary model of Clearworld developed since 2019 to enable scientifically and statistically-sound research into venture industries that suffer from limited data not assuming normalcy. It is a generalized model with MENA being a special case. Clearworld do not sell, re-sell or share access to the raw dataset, which can be accessed through the Crunchbase platform independently. 56
  51. To contact the editor: Eden Rabbie eden.rabbie@clear.world +971501385522 linkedin.com/in/edenrabbie 57 Clearworld is a firm created purposefully to handle uncertainty. We use scientific and statistical models to create quantifiable clarity, then feed it into real-world execution models. We specialize in orphaned strategy situations: when a goal, aspiration, or strategic statement exists, but no clarity on execution and close to zero meaningful action, data and insights. A. Brick up the gaps between strategy and action B. Shorten the lead time to execution C. Minimize execution uncertainties in real time D. Convert the outcome into rational entities with measurable performance and answers to the variables needed for proper project management Startup Report MENA (startupreport.me) is a platform developed using the Clearworld Model. It is a public service managed by Clearworld aimed to catalyze the innovation and venture capital industry in MENA. The intention is to keep it free of charge. Clearworld is a Dubai-based management consultancy, DET license 946385.
  52. Selling data now is a mistake. In a nascent industry like MENA ventures, it is a mistake. 1. Dearth of data is a big barrier to entry in this industry. It is common to see a fund manager who wants to dabble in early stage, and as he designs a portfolio he realizes that even the most basic building blocks such as expected returns or holding period averages is just not there. How bad is the discussion with your LP prospect when you promise an expected return based on assumptions, or an allocation strategy based on famous outlier exits or, worse, US rules of thumb. You don't have to imagine because It’s. Our. Reality. 2. New VCs in MENA don’t bring in new liquidity. Our new VCs are almost always established by ex-employees of another local VC and rarely by new entrants. Those ex-employees carry over the same LP network, barely adding any new liquidity to the system. We need new liquidity to advance MENA ventures. Not more SWFs, but new market forces with industry rationality mandates to allow for the evolutionary process in the industry to kick in. For that to happen, we must remove all barriers to entry: good regulation, public-private partnerships, AND complete information on what to expect when you enter. Under these conditions, every act that may hinder access to information is a shot in the foot. Our initiative here is to make benchmarks and insights available for all—incumbents and new entrants. We urge everyone to help advance our tech innovation industry with a simple first step: Embrace open data to unlock new liquidity. Eden Rabbie Partner - Director of Data Science and Business Insight at Clearworld March 2023 T H E M E N A E A R L Y S T A G E D A T A H A N D B O O K 2023
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