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2011_Painel / Panel14_Paul Steele - IATA

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Estratégias ambientais internacionais | International Environmental Strategies

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2011_Painel / Panel14_Paul Steele - IATA

  1. 1. Aviation and Climate Change Paul Steele Director Aviation Environment IATA Aviation is a key driver of socio-economic2.3 Billion passengers development32 Million jobsMajor driver of tourism and trade8% of global GDP (US$ 3.5 trillion)2% of global man-made CO2 emissions (IPCC) 1
  2. 2. Air Transport Contribution to Climate Change Global CO2 emissions Our carbon footprint is small but growing From 2% today to 3% in 2050 (IPCC) Source: IPPC/WRI Aviation faces emissions challenge 1600 Pre-recession 1400 ICAO forecast CO2 emissions from the global fuel Post-recession 1200 burn of commercial airlines IATA forecastMillion tonnes CO2 1000 800 600 628 Mt 400 (2010) 200 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 Source: IATA 2
  3. 3. But our track record is strong 70 1200 65 Emissions at 1100 Fuel efficiency frozen 1990Fuel efficiency, litres/100 TKP 60 technology 1000 CO2 million tonnes 55 900 50 3.3 Billion tonnes of 800 CO2 saved 45 700 CO2 40 600 Actual Emissions 35 500 30 400 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Industry Commitment on Climate Change 2008 3
  4. 4. Our four-pillar strategy: Invest in new technology Fly more efficiently Build and use efficient infrastructure Use effective economic measures Technology – Fuel saving potential Baseline Well beyond 2005 Retrofit Modifications Around 2020 2020Retrofits: 0% New aircraft types• Wingtips (around 2020):• More efficient APU • New engine architecture• Engine retrofits -10% • (geared turbofan / counter-• Composite secondary rotating fan / open rotor) structures • Natural and hybrid laminar -20% flowSerial modifications: New aircraft types• Composite primary -30% (well beyond 2020): structures • Variable cycle• Engine upgrades • Hybrid wing body• Active load alleviation -40% • Truss-braced wing • Fuel cell -50% 4
  5. 5. Operations and Infrastructure Operations Improved maintenance techniques Flight and fuel planning accuracy Taxiing with one engine out Ground power instead of APU Infrastructure Through RVSM, RNP, flex tracks, etc Limitations related to safety, capacity, noise, weather, etc Improvement potential in congested airspaceAIRPORT CARBON ACCREDITATIONEurope’s Airports response to Climate Change Olivier Jankovec, Director General, ACI EUROPE World Tourism Forum, 14 April 2011 - Lucerne 5
  6. 6. HOW? Scheme structure VOLUNTARY SCHEME 3+ TIER PROGRAMME = Airport Carbon Accredited labels - 1. FOOTPRINT: definition, assessment, verification = MAPPING LEVEL - 2. MANAGEMENT PLAN + FOOTPRINT REDUCTION = REDUCTION LEVEL - 3. EXTENSION OF FOOTPRINT + ENGAGEMENT PLAN = OPTIMISATION LEVEL - 3+. CARBON NEUTRALITY = NEUTRALITY LEVEL THIRD PARTY VERIFICATION INDEPENDENT ADMINISTRATION EXTERNAL RECOGNITION 6
  7. 7. RESULTS? Carbon Management Standard JUNE 2010: 17 AIRPORTS ACCREDITED - Impact of global crisis - Resource intensity (staff) - Scheme is demanding APRIL 2011: 43 AIRPORTS ACCREDITED - 43% of European air traffic - -749.000 T CO2RESULTS? Accredited airports 7
  8. 8. CO2 Abatement cost curve in 2020 CO Marginal Abatement Cost Curve in 2020 2 for global commercial airline fuel burn USD/tCO 1,000 2 Jet fuel price; 800 100 $/barrel 600 200 Carbon price 65 US$/tCO2 0 MtCO2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 -200 -400 -600 -800 European ATM Improvements Next Gen Wingtips Biofuels Early retirement - Re engining Gulf region Cabin weight reductions Engine retrofit/upgrades No tankering Airspace China redesign Use of ground power Reduced speed operation with current fleet Flexible tracks North Pacific Takeoff and Landing Procedures PRD Center of Gravity Flexible Usage of Military airspace Pilot Technique Drag reduction Fuel Management Taxiing with some engines shut down Optimizing cost index RVSM RussiaSource: IATA Carbon Model Global industry targets 2010 2020 2050 1.5% p/a fuel CNG from 2020 50% reduction in efficiency net CO2 Implementation of emissions over Working global sectoral 2005 levels towards CNG approach 8
  9. 9. Emissions reduction roadmap No action CO2emissions “Frozen technology” emissions Gross emissions trajectory CNG 2020 -50% by 2050 (schematic) 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Emissions reduction roadmap “Frozen technology” emissions No action CO2 Known technology, operations and infrastructureemissions measures Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Tech Gross emissions trajectory Ops Infra CNG 2020 -50% by 2050 (schematic) 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 9
  10. 10. Emissions reduction roadmap “Frozen technology” emissions No action CO2 Known technology, operations and infrastructure measuresemissions Biofuels and additional technology Tech Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Ops Gross emissions trajectory Infra Economic measures Biofuels + CNG 2020 add. Tech -50% by 2050 (schematic) 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Our biggest opportunity is sustainable biofuels With the potential to reduce our carbon footprint by 80% Full certification by Q1 2011 Next step: scaling up and commercialization 10
  11. 11. Biofuels could completely replace Jet A-1 100% 90% High 80% Central (high) Proportion of jet demand 70% Central (low) 60% Low 50% 40% Very low 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: E4techPromotion of aviation biofuels Governments have their part to play R&D funding Pilot projects Fiscal & investment incentives Transport & energy policyBig opportunity for developing countries!! 11
  12. 12. How can governments help? Invest in infrastructure and ATM improvements Invest in R&D funding for new technology Promote scaling up and of sustainable biofuel production Emissions reduction roadmap “Frozen technology” emissions Known technology, operations and infrastructure measures No action CO2 Biofuels and additional technologyemissions Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Tech Gross emissions trajectory Ops Economic measures Infra Biofuels + CNG 2020 add. Tech -50% by 2050 (schematic) 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 12
  13. 13. Market-based measures Industry recognises that MBMs will be needed to “close the gap” But we need positive not punitive measures Fiscal/financial/policy measures to Accelerate R&D Incentivize technical/operational improvements Promote alternative fuels Industry offsets mechanisms must also be recognized to reach post-2020 targetsEmerging uncoordinated patchwork “Green” taxes$3.5bn $1.2bn $0.2bn $25bn? $? $? Emissions trading$ 1-13 bn $ 4 mn $? $? $? $? $? 13
  14. 14. Concerns with Environment Taxes “Green” taxes do nothing for the environment Money goes into central treasury funds Netherlands tax repealed after 18% shift in traffic across borders Distance banding causes market distortions UK APD distortions because based on capital cities Cheaper to fly to Hawaii than Bermuda Taxes hurt developing country trade and tourism Usually distant from tourism source and trade target marketsAviation needs a global frameworkBased on sound principlesEmissions accounting at global levelNo double counting of emissionsEmissions addressed through basket of measures Technology, including biofuels Infrastructure Operations Economic, including offsetsAny revenues prioritised for reinvestment in aviation carbonreductionDiffering needs of states taken into accountLevel playing field for operators between markets 14
  15. 15. How can governments help?By agreeing A coordinated policy approach A global framework under ICAO to address aviation emissionsBy avoiding A fragmented policy approach Unilateral use of national/regional measures UNFCCC – COP16 Outcomes No progress on “Bunker Fuels” debate Strong recognition of movement in ICAO “Green Climate Fund” may target aviation/shipping 15
  16. 16. ICAO – Plays a vital role Specialised UN body 60+ years experience Success in managing other issues e.g. noise ICAO 37th Assembly ResolutionOutcomes First ever global sectoral agreement on CO2 Reflects industry goal of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 Lists 15 principles for MBMs Transparency and simplicity No duplication Minimize leakage and distortion Appropriate access to all carbon markets Step in the right direction 16
  17. 17. ICAO 37th Assembly Resolution –Next StepsBy 2011 Review de minimis threshold for MBMsBy 2013 Review CNG2020 goal Explore long-term aspirational goal (-2050) Develop a framework for market-based measures Explore feasibility of a global MBM scheme Develop global CO2 standard for aircraftConclusionsAviation is a key economic driver for developingtrade and tourismAviation industry has a robust plan to addressemissions growthAir traffic management improvements, technologyand biofuels are the keyPositive economic measures needed not taxesMajor opportunities for countries like BrazilBrazil can play a leading role: Global Framework through ICAO Development of aviation biofuels 17
  18. 18. Aviation and Climate Change Paul Steele Director Aviation Environment IATA 18

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