Airport forecasting article 3


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Airport Forecasting- Article 3, it show how to plan to match long range target by short range targets, with differents models

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Airport forecasting article 3

  1. 1. AIRPORTS ForecastingMatching Long Range Data TargetsBy Short Range Data Targetsby: Mohammed Salem AwadResearch Scholar – Aviation ManagementForecasting is the right tool for a fair decision making, we useit to create a proper plans ,activities and setting up budgets.But what is the right effective model, what are the rightparameters to measure the goodness of fits, and how to plan tomatch the long range targets by a short range targets, can weget same answer from different models. This is what we willaddress it in …. “Plans are nothing; planning is everything.”Nice Airport Case Study: Dwight D. Eisenhower 1- Developing Long Range Targets:Trend Model:Based on annual historical data period (1950-2011)Input Data: 51 sets ( Annually )Coefficient of Determination:99.6 %Signal Tracking : 0.0000011Results :Passengers Forecast 2012 =10,467,360Passengers Forecast 2013 =10,493,391 2- Developing Short Range Targets:Seasonality Model:Based on monthly 3 years dataperiod (2009-2011)Input Data: 36 sets ( Monthly )Coefficient of Determination:96.7 %Signal Tracking : -30.14Results :Passengers Forecast 2012 =10,467,360Passengers Forecast 2013 =10,493,391Summary:The results are fairly matched, so itpossible to plan in such a way that,we utilize the annual trends tomeet the annual cumulativeforecast of the seasonality modelfor two forecasted years, keepingin mind the pre-request constrainsfor both models.
  2. 2. AIRPORTS Forecasting YEMEN Airports: SANAAAirport Airports Forecasting: Airport forecasting is an important issue in Aviation industry. It becomes an integral parts of transportation planning. It sets targets and goals for the airports, either for long term or medium term planning. The primary statistical methods used in airport aviation activity forecasting are market share approach, econometric modeling, and time series modeling. Model Used: Based on a historical data of the airports, (3 years on monthly bases) the mathematical model is developed where its fairness and goodness of fit can be defined by two important factors: R2 (Coeff. Of Determination) > 80% S. T (Signal Tracking) ..(- 4  S.T.  4) This time we try to set (S.T.) to Zero Airport Performances: There are many factors that may measure the airport performance, mainly: 1) Number of Passengers. 2) Aircraft Movement and 3) Freight SANAA Airport: Sanaa International Airport or El Rahaba Airport (Sanaa International) (IATA: SAH, ICAO: OYSN) is an international airport located in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen. Recently Yemen passes in a transition phase, as results a democracy. This situation effects on 2011 data base. So the basic analysis addressing 2008, 2009, and 2010. And the forecasted period are 2011 and 2012. But in this issue we are addressed the Yemenia and Other Operators Yemenia : Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 764,398 Pax Peak Periods: July-August Annual Growth : (0.02) % The Model is not fair as R = 44% Other Operators: Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 600513Pax Peak Periods: July Annual Growth : 0.08 % The Model is not fair as R = 77% Total – Yemenia and Other Operators Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 1,340,118Pax Peak Periods: July - August Annual Growth : 0.01 % The Model is not fair as R = 66%
  3. 3. AIRPORTS Forecasting INTERNATIONALS Airports Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport (IATA: CDG, ICAO: LFPG) (French: Aéroport Paris- Charles de Gaulle), is one of the worlds principal aviation centers, as well as Frances largest airport. It is named after Charles de Gaulle (1890–1970), leader of the Free French Forces and founder of the French Fifth Republic. It is located within portions of several communes, 25 km (16 mi) to the northeast of Paris. The airport serves as the principal hub for Air France. In 2011, the airport handled 60,970,551 passengers and 514,059 aircraft movements, making it the worlds sixth busiest airport and Europes second busiest airport (after London Heathrow) in passengers served. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 62,166,461 Pax Annual Growth : 2.6 % The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 93 % Denver International Airport (IATA: DEN, ICAO: KDEN, FAA LID: DEN), often referred to as DIA, is an airport in Denver, Colorado. In 2011 Denver International Airport was the 11th- busiest airport in the world by passenger traffic with 52,699,298 passengers. It was the fifth- busiest airport in the world by aircraft movements with over 635,000 movements in 2010.. Denver International Airport is the main hub for low-cost carrier Frontier Airlines and commuter carrier Great Lakes Airlines. It is also the fourth-largest hub for United Airlines. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 53,986,884 Pax Annual Growth : 2.21% The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 97.7 % Chicago OHare International Airport (IATA: ORD, ICAO: KORD, FAA LID: ORD), also known as OHare Airport, OHare Field, Chicago Airport, Chicago International Airport, or simply OHare, is a major airport located in the northwestern-most corner of Chicago, Illinois, United States. prior to 1998, OHare was the busiest airport in the world in terms of the number of passengers. OHare has a strong international presence, with flights to more than 60 foreign destinations: it is the fourth busiest international gateway in the United States behind John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City, Los Angeles International Airport and Miami International Airport. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 67,859,340 Pax Annual Growth : 1.34 % The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 97.3 %
  4. 4. AIRPORTS Forecasting INTERNATIONALS Airports Nice Côte dAzur Airport (IATA: NCE, ICAO: LFMN) is an airport located 3.2 NM (5.9 km; 3.7 mi) southwest of Nice, in the Alpes- Maritimes department of France. The airport is positioned 7 km (4 mi) west of the city centre, and is the principal port of arrival for passengers to the Côte dAzur. It is the third busiest airport in France after Charles de Gaulle International Airport and Orly Airport, both in Paris. Due to its proximity to the Principality of Monaco, it also serves as the city-states airport, Some airlines marketed Monaco as a destination via Nice Airport. it is also serves as a hub for Air France. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 10,496,380 Pax Annual Growth : 2.62 % The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 98.3 % Edmonton International Airport (IATA: YEG, ICAO: CYEG) is the primary air passenger and air cargo facility in the Edmonton region of the Canadian province of Alberta. It is a hub facility for Northern Alberta and Northern Canada, providing regularly scheduled nonstop flights to over fifty communities in Canada, the United States, Latin America and Europe. It is one of Canadas largest airports by total land area, the 5th busiest airport by passenger traffic, and the 10th busiest by aircraft movements. Operated by Edmonton Airports and located 14 NM (26 km; 16 mi) south southwest of downtown Edmonton, in Leduc County, and adjacent to the City of Leduc, it served over 6.2 million passengers in 2011. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 6,329,057 Pax Annual Growth : 1.4 % The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 91.9 % London Heathrow Airport or Heathrow (IATA: LHR, ICAO: EGLL) is a major international airport serving London, England, United Kingdom. Located in the London Borough of Hillingdon, in West London, Heathrow is the busiest airport in the United Kingdom and the third busiest airport in the world (as of 2012) in terms of total passenger traffic, handling more international passengers than any other airport around the globe. It is also the busiest airport in the EU by passenger traffic and the third busiest in Europe given the number of traffic movements, with a figure surpassed only by Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport and Frankfurt Airport. Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 70,557,827 Pax Annual Growth : 2.6 % The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 89 %