A presentation covering the currently known House and Senate results and their implications. Check out our Blog for a detailed analysis of the Senate picture as it stands: http://blog.aigroup.com.au/election-2016-whats-going-on-in-the-senate-and-what-does-it-mean-for-industry/

2. Political update
July 7 2016

3. Agenda
1. The election result is not yet fully known
2. House results
3. Senate results
4. Political implications
5. Policy implications

4. 1. The election result is not yet fully known
House: counting continues in close seats; there may be recounts.
Senate: many seats are clear from the first preference vote. However the
size and composition of the crossbench will not be clear until a final
distribution of preferences is made, no earlier than 16 July.
Bottom line: we may not know full results for a couple of weeks.
Negotiations on any minority government may take longer.

5. 2. House results
73
67
5
0
15
30
45
60
75
Coalition ALP Greens NXT KAP Wilkie McGowan In doubt
76 votes needed to pass legislation
Someone must provide a Speaker, who does not vote
Crossbench will be 5
Potential further seats are depicted based on
current leads, but these are small and postal votes
traditionally favour the Coalition - the Coalition may
take more than the 2 it is currently leading

6. 3. Senate results
27
23
5
2
10
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Liberal /
National
ALP Greens NXT JLN One Nation Hinch Unknown
39 votes needed to pass legislation
Coalition needs 2-13 extra votes;
ALP needs 6-17 extra votes.
Crossbench of 9-24 with blocs from Greens, NXT and
possibly One Nation, others unaffiliated.
10 unknown spots involve hard-to-anticipate
preference flows

7. 4. Political implications
Coalition will form government, but has suffered a major swing
Close numbers a constant risk, test of party unity and logistics as much as
crossbench relations
2010-13 hung Parliament:
• went full term and produced much legislation
• ALP was divided over leadership, but not policy substance
Early election? Maybe, but last resort

8. 4. Policy implications
Signature Coalition policies will likely either fail to pass (ABCC, RO) or be
heavily reduced in scope (company tax cuts)
Potential for agreement between Coalition and ALP on some issues
Crossbench will negotiate hard for their priorities
• NXT: Industry jobs, especially in SA at Arrium and Holden
• JLN: Job creation through Government contracts, 50c dairy levy, retain
family payments, reverse aged care cuts
• One Nation: Job creation, family law reform, restrict foreign ownership