Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
Similar to David Laborde_EgyptNPS_20220628.pptx
Similar to David Laborde_EgyptNPS_20220628.pptx (20)
More from Ahmed Ali
More from Ahmed Ali (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
David Laborde_EgyptNPS_20220628.pptx
- 1. IMPLICATIONS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE FOR GLOBAL FOOD PRICES AND FOOD SECURITY: LESSONS FOR MENA David Laborde International Food Policy Research Institute IEO Seminar June 17, 2022 Please visit: https://www.ifpri.org/landing/war-ukraine-blog-landing-page
- 2. Food prices were already on the rise before war in Ukraine for various factors: climate, demand, COVID-19 disruptions, policies Food Prices https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ Production and stocks http://www.amis-outlook.org/ https://www.foodsecurityportal.org/node/1734 Russia 5.8% Global Market Share in Calories Ukraine 6% Global Market Share in Calories About 12% of world market calories (food & feed) Glauber and Laborde, 2022
- 3. Markets have taken further hits since the start of the invasion 3 https://www.ifpri.org/blog/do-no-harm-measured- policy-responses-are-key-addressing-food-security- impacts-ukraine-crisis
- 5. 5 https://www.ifpri.org/blog/high-fertilizer-prices- contribute-rising-global-food-security-concerns
- 6. Export restrictions Food & Feed Fertilizers
- 7. Country vulnerability Country vulnerability - Direct exposure to Black Sea supply - Food import dependency - Macroeconomic vulnerability - Fertilizer import dependency - Existing local food market dynamics
- 8. Recommendations on short term policy responses DO's Remove biofuel subsidies and mandates Target social safety nets to the most needy Boost funding to WFP and other humanitarian programs Allow market prices to guide producer and consumer decisions. DON'TS Apply sanctions that obstruct food and fertilizer trade Implement export restrictions Panic buying Target subsidies to specific crops, or large-scale fertilizer subsidies programs Cancel environmental initiatives without weighing long term costs Promote self sufficiency policy, autarky strategy or artificial “diversification” https://www.ifpri.org/blog/do-no-harm-measured-policy-responses-are-key-addressing-food-security-impacts-ukraine- crisis
Editor's Notes
- Strong demand: Large purchases from China since early 2021 Limited supply: La Nina hurt South America, in particular soybean production But Argentina wheat production has been spared Drought in Middle-East: increased demand Supply constraint and trade restrictions on Palm Oil in SE-Asia Low Inventories: Wheat stocks at lowest level since 2007/08 Corn stocks at lowest level since 2012/13 Soybean stocks at lowest level since 2011/12 Rice stocks at highest level in more than 20 years Rising production costs : Fertilizers Energy Labor
- Technological response: Smart planting decision based on the best soil and weather info new opportunities for diversification, bridging the yield gap, addressing the nutrient management issue