The State of the Housing Market 2012 -2013

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November 2012: This is my presentation given at the Super Agent Summit on the State of the Housing Market in November 2012 and where we are headed in 2013.

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  • The State of the Housing Market 2012 -2013

    1. 1. real estate marketing AgentRedefined The State of the Market 2012 and Where we are headed to in 2013AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 1 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    2. 2. AgentRedefined Complete Real Estate Marketing Solutions for Realtors The State of the MarketA complete guide for Realtors marketing themselves and their properties online.
    3. 3. real estate marketing Meet the team Super Agent Summit | November 7th, 2012AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 3 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    4. 4. real estate marketing Meet the team Super Agent Summit | November 7th, 2012 MICHAEL CUEVAS REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONAL GEORGE CUEVAS AND TEAM REAL ESTATE BUILDER MARKETING SPECIALISTAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 3 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    5. 5. real estate Agent Redefined? marketing Complete Real Estate Marketing Training for Realtors by George “El Gaupo” Cuevas WHAT GEORGE DOES FOR REALTORS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 4 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    6. 6. real estate Agent Redefined? marketing Complete Real Estate Marketing Training for Realtors by George “El Gaupo” Cuevas Zillow & Trulia WHAT Training GEORGE DOES FOR REALTORS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 4 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    7. 7. real estate Agent Redefined? marketing Complete Real Estate Marketing Training for Realtors by George “El Gaupo” Cuevas Zillow & Trulia WHAT Training GEORGE Social Media DOES FOR Training for Real REALTORS ACROSS Estate THE COUNTRY...AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 4 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    8. 8. real estate Agent Redefined? marketing Complete Real Estate Marketing Training for Realtors by George “El Gaupo” Cuevas Zillow & Trulia WHAT Training GEORGE Social Media DOES FOR Training for Real REALTORS ACROSS Estate THE Using Video COUNTRY... in Real EstateAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 4 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    9. 9. real estate Agent Redefined? marketing Complete Real Estate Marketing Training for Realtors by George “El Gaupo” Cuevas Zillow & Trulia Wordpress WHAT Training Real Estate GEORGE Social Media Websites DOES FOR Training for Real REALTORS ACROSS Estate THE Using Video COUNTRY... in Real EstateAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 4 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    10. 10. real estate Agent Redefined? marketing Complete Real Estate Marketing Training for Realtors by George “El Gaupo” Cuevas Zillow & Trulia Wordpress WHAT Training Real Estate GEORGE Social Media Websites DOES FOR Training for Real Realtor REALTORS ACROSS Estate Training Blog THE Using Video COUNTRY... in Real EstateAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 4 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    11. 11. real estate Agent Redefined? marketing Complete Real Estate Marketing Training for Realtors by George “El Gaupo” Cuevas Zillow & Trulia Wordpress WHAT Training Real Estate GEORGE Social Media Websites DOES FOR Training for Real Realtor REALTORS ACROSS Estate Training Blog THE Using Video Marketing COUNTRY... in Real Estate CampaignsAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 4 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    12. 12. real estate The Realtor Training Blog marketing George “El Guapo” Cuevas is also the creator of the Realtor Training Blog!!! The most Access all of my training for FREE on comprehensive my blog, The Realtor Training Blog. training blog for Realtors on Simply go to...... the planet! www.agentredefined.comAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 5 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    13. 13. real estate The Realtor Training Blog marketing George “El Guapo” Cuevas is also the creator of the Realtor Training Blog!!! I train Realtors I travel the country training Real and Brokerage Estate Agents on everything that is offices across online marketing. the country.... I can customize training for any Hire me group, office, or individual agent... today...AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 6 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    14. 14. real estate Selling Residential Real marketing Estate Business & Make your Business Plan for Marketing 2013 first. (just a simple outline keep it simple)Your MarketingActivities are a How many listings did you closedirect result of in prior years, this year, and whatyour Business do you want to close in 2013 andPlanning.... beyond. Goals are needed (Short Term and Long Term)AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 7 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    15. 15. real estate Selling Residential Real marketing Estate Business & Your Marketing Plan is in part the Marketing execution of your Business Plan.Your Marketing Your goals become yourActivities are a benchmarks.direct result of All of your Marketing Activities areyour BusinessPlanning.... executed to meet your Business Plan and the Goals you set forth for your business.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 8 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    16. 16. real estate Business Planning to the marketing upcoming Market Shift... Understand where the Housing A Changing Market Market is headed to build your Adapt to the Marketing & Business Plan. Market... As the Market heats up and Don’t resist it.... changes you must adapt your Add the proper business and planning to it. (remember Skills and 2007-08 and the Realtors who didnt adapt.) Training needed Housing Data is no longer ONLY to prosper in it. controlled by Realtors! (Zillow/Trulia)AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 9 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    17. 17. real estate Housing Recovery 2012 marketing Where the housing market recovery is most prevalent in October 2012 San Francisco Bay Area Several Markets surrounding L.A. Several Markets surrounding San Diego Phoenix Parts of Boston Washington DC & several surrounding areas.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 10 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    18. 18. real estate STATE OF THE MARKET marketing 2013Recovery inProgressThe overall U.S.Housing Markethas been in astate of recoverysince February2012.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 11 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    19. 19. real estate STATE OF THE MARKET marketing 2013Recovery inProgress Recovery is in THE THE progress despite flat GDP GrowthThe overall U.S. RECOVERY RECOVERY under 2%,Housing Market IS NOT IS slowing Privatehas been in a EQUAL IN CAUTIOUS Sector Activity, and ALL LY TEPID Unemploymentstate of recovery MARKETS AND SLOW at around 8%since February officially.2012.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 11 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    20. 20. real estate The Beige Book, Oct. 2012 marketing Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve District.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 12 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    21. 21. real estate The Beige Book, Oct. 2012 marketing Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve District. Economic Activity was modestsince last report which indicated aslowing economy.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 12 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    22. 22. real estate The Beige Book, Oct. 2012 marketing Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve District. Economic Activity was modestsince last report which indicated aslowing economy. Residential Real Estateconditions continued to improve.Prices were remaining “steady toincreasing”.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 12 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    23. 23. real estate The Beige Book, Oct. 2012 marketing Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve District. Economic Activity was modestsince last report which indicated aslowing economy. Residential Real Estateconditions continued to improve.Prices were remaining “steady toincreasing”. Declining inventories noted inBoston, Atlanta, Minneapolis,Dallas, & All of the San FranciscoDistricts.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 12 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    24. 24. real estate The Beige Book, Oct. 2012 marketing Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve District. Economic Activity was modest Residential construction wassince last report which indicated a also described as rising in theseslowing economy. districts and continuing in Residential Real Estate California and Phoenix.conditions continued to improve.Prices were remaining “steady toincreasing”. Declining inventories noted inBoston, Atlanta, Minneapolis,Dallas, & All of the San FranciscoDistricts.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 12 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    25. 25. real estate The Beige Book, Oct. 2012 marketing Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve District. Economic Activity was modest Residential construction wassince last report which indicated a also described as rising in theseslowing economy. districts and continuing in Residential Real Estate California and Phoenix.conditions continued to improve. Real Estate Contracts arePrices were remaining “steady to expected to continue to grow. Theincreasing”. recovery remains fragile and could Declining inventories noted in be derailed by deterioration inBoston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, economic conditions.Dallas, & All of the San FranciscoDistricts.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 12 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    26. 26. real estate The Beige Book, Oct. 2012 marketing Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve District. Economic Activity was modest Residential construction wassince last report which indicated a also described as rising in theseslowing economy. districts and continuing in Residential Real Estate California and Phoenix.conditions continued to improve. Real Estate Contracts arePrices were remaining “steady to expected to continue to grow. Theincreasing”. recovery remains fragile and could Declining inventories noted in be derailed by deterioration inBoston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, economic conditions.Dallas, & All of the San Francisco Housing Market will contributeDistricts. positively to the GDP in 2012.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 12 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    27. 27. real estate Shiller Housing Price Index marketing Where housing prices have been and where they are going...AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 13 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    28. 28. real estate Existing & New Home marketing Sales 1980 - 2012 Housing Units Sold New Home SalesAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 14 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    29. 29. real estate Existing & New Home marketing Sales 1980 - 20126,350,000 6180000 5958000 Housing Units Sold5,725,000 5677000 New Home Sales 54460005,100,000 4939000 4649000 4603000 4603000 4566000 44700004,475,000 4350000 43090003,850,0003,225,000 3010000 2973000 28290002,600,0001,975,0001,350,000 1 2 0 3 0 0 01 2 8 3 0 0 0 1086000 1051000 886000 880000 877000 776000 725,000 639000 650000 545000 485000 375000 323000 350000 1980 1985 1990 1999 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 AgentRedefined Contact Us: 1980 - 2012 Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 14 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.com complete real estate marketing training
    30. 30. real estate Number of Realtors in marketing NAR Total Realtors at NARAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 15 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    31. 31. real estate Number of Realtors in marketing NAR 1,400,000 1357732 Total Realtors at NAR 1338001 1265367 1,225,000 1197529 1112645 1066658 1,050,000 1009940 875,000 803803 718599 700,000 525,000 1996 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 1996 - 2012 15 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    32. 32. real estate Short Sales Taking Over marketing REO’sAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 16 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    33. 33. real estate 2012-2013 Short Sales marketing will dominate the market Foreclosure Status Illinois | OCT 2012 Short Sales now dominate over both Auctions and REO’s in the State of Illinois. This trend is seen throughout the country.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 17 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    34. 34. real estate 2012-2013 Short Sales marketing will dominate the market Foreclosure Status Illinois | OCT 2012 Short Sales now 31% dominate over both 43% Auctions and REO’s in the State of Illinois. This trend is seen throughout the country. 26% Auction REO Short SaleAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 17 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    35. 35. real estate Housing Supply/ marketing Inventory (MRED) 2010 2011 2012AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 18 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    36. 36. real estate Housing Supply/ marketing Inventory (MRED) 16.0 14.4 14.1 13.9 12.8 12.5 11 . 9 11.1 2010 2011 9.5 2012 7.9 6.6 6.3 5.9 4.6 September October 19AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 18 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    37. 37. real estate Listings Currently Under marketing Contract 2010 2011 2012AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 19 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    38. 38. real estate Listings Currently Under marketing Contract 12,000 11,278 10,667 9,610 2010 9,333 2011 2012 8,000 6,667 6,160 6,226 5,333 5,215 5,134 September OctoberAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 19 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    39. 39. real estate New Listings Coming on marketing the Market.. 2010 2011 2012AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 20 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    40. 40. real estate New Listings Coming on marketing the Market.. 17,500 16,228 16,000 14,500 14,013 14,188 2010 13,533 13,190 2011 13,000 13,081 2012 11,500 10,000 September OctoberAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 20 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    41. 41. real estate Total Sales Closed marketing 2010 2011 2012AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 21 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    42. 42. real estate Total Sales Closed marketing 10,000 9,000 8,753 7,971 2010 8,000 2011 7,000 2012 6,557 6,292 6,000 5,728 5,068 5,000 September OctoberAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 21 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    43. 43. real estate Average Days on Market marketing 2010 2011 2012AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 22 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    44. 44. real estate Average Days on Market marketing 200 168 166 165 1 6 7 159 139 140 2010 137 2011 105 2012 73 42 September OctoberAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 22 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    45. 45. real estate Naperville Housing marketing Supply Months of SupplyAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 23 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    46. 46. real estate Naperville Housing marketing Supply15.0 Months of Supply12.810.7 9.4 8.5 6.3 6.1 5.8 6.1 4.2 $229,899 and Below $229,900 to $357,899 $357,900 to $524,899 $524,900 and Above AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 23 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.com complete real estate marketing training
    47. 47. real estate Market Trends 2012 & marketing What to expect in 2013Recovery inProgressWe are seeingseveral trendstake hold in thismarketrecovery...AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 24 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    48. 48. real estate Market Trends 2012 & marketing What to expect in 2013Recovery inProgress REO’s are There is a drop Decreasing in New ListingsWe are seeing Overall bothseveral trends Sales Traditional andtake hold in this Activity is Distressed Short Sales coming onto to Increasingmarket are the market at Increasing the same time...recovery...AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 24 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    49. 49. real estate The Results of these marketing Market Trends... Recovery in ProgressIf current trendscontinue we willsee shrinkinghousing supplyin theChicagolandArea...AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 25 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    50. 50. real estate The Results of these marketing Market Trends... Recovery in Expect the Progress MRED area Focus should Housing to get down be on ListingsIf current trends Inventories to take to 2-3 advantage of acontinue we will are Months of tight housingsee shrinking Decreasing Housing supply cominghousing supply Supply in to the the 4th QTR Chicagolandin the 2013 Area.ChicagolandArea...AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 25 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    51. 51. real estate Adapting to the marketing Changing Marketplace... Listings become GOLD in a heated Marketing Techniques market. Re-Make your listing presentations. Start to utilize techniques to Online Property Searches are take advantage dominated by Zillow & Trulia: of the changing EMBRACE THIS. marketplace. Traditional Marketing Techniques Get the training with a Twist: Just Sold, Just Listed, you need. Open Houses, Expired, FSBO’sAgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 26 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    52. 52. real estate 2013 Trends & What to marketing Expect If the current trends continue Trends expect housing inventories in the Short Sales will Chicagoland area to drop to 2-3 continue to months of supply by the 4th Quarter of dominate and 2013. inventories continue to Short Sales will continue to shrink... dominate the market over REO’s and start to drop off in 2014, 2015.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 27 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    53. 53. real estate Pricing Increases marketing The 54K Question? There is a time lapse between Pricing shrinking inventories and pricing Trends increases. Expect pricing to Pricing increases take time to take rise slowly and hold and measure. cautiously. Expect to start seeing more definitive %’ in price increases in the 4th Quarter of 2013. Remember, this is a slow recovery.AgentRedefined Contact Us: Chicago, IL | Phone: 312.320.8274 28 www.agentredefined.com, george@agentredefined.comcomplete real estate marketing training
    54. 54. THANK YOU

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