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PPWNov13- Day 2 am- R.Parra-Pena- CIAT

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Day 2 am session: “Colombian Agricultural Supply Chain Organizations: How Public Policy Shapes Agriculture and how value chain actors shape policy,” Rafael Parra-Pena, CIAT

Workshop on Approaches and Methods for Policy Process Research, co-sponsored by the CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM) and Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) at IFPRI-Washington DC, November 18-20, 2013.

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PPWNov13- Day 2 am- R.Parra-Pena- CIAT

  1. 1. Rafael Isidro Parra-Peña S. and Mark Lundy CIAT Policy Analyst and Senior Researcher Presentation @ IFPRI November 2013
  2. 2. Rural Colombia While in urban areas, 30% of the population is considered poor, 7% extremely poor, in rural areas poverty is at 65% and 33% are extremely poor. • In the last decade rural GDP increased 2.8% • Land concentration and inequality has increased in rural areas. The Gini index of rural areas of land owners increased from 0.74 to 0.88 • 60% of rural employment is in the informal sector • 55% of poor peasants have never received any kind of technical assistance or training • 11% do not have a home, and 16% live in homes in disrepair • The average income of a peasants in 2009 was 220,000 pesos, while their urban counterparts earned an average of 668,000 pesos • Illiteracy rate is 18.5% and 60% do not have access to potable water
  3. 3. Since the early 1990's, Colombia has pursued an innovative policy agenda to promote the competitiveness of agricultural supply chains, with a particular focus on programs and initiatives that support rural smallholder farmers Has the time come to ask “has this policy been effective?” In terms of: Competitiveness Alleviating rural poverty OBJECTIVE: to analyze the results of public supply chain policies in Colombia
  4. 4. Timeline
  5. 5. A typical Supply Chain Organization Committee or thematic table National Council Regional Committee Regional Committee National technical secretariat Regional Committee
  6. 6. Competitiveness Agreement Diagnostic Strategy Operative Plan Future Vision SWOT Analysis Strategic Plan
  7. 7. Vegetable Committee of Boyacá Assuming that increased contact between national and local actors will facilitate the adoption of technologies, access to training , technical assistance, access to state programs at the local level, the policy ultimately aims to improve market competitiveness and, in turn, generate higher incomes for the region's vegetable producers.
  8. 8. 37 Supply Chain Organizations – – – – – – – – – – – – – Aquaculture Avocado Cotton-textiles Basic goods Rice Banana Cacao Coffee Farmed shrimp Sugar cane Beef Pork Natural rubber – – – – – – – – – – – – Citrus Coconut Beekeeping Equine Fibers Flowers and foliage Forestry Bamboo Guava Herbs Dairy Mango – – – – – – – – – – – – Sheep and goat Palm Panela Potato Aromatic plants Plantains Aloe Tobacco Yucca Passionfruit Deciduous Blackberries
  9. 9. What frameworks did you use to frame your study? I- Macro Analysis - Geographic focus - Institutional Strength Index (ISI) - ISI and competitiveness - Selection of case studies
  10. 10. II-Mezzo Analysis - Supply chain performance in terms of competitiveness, institutional strength, equity and social inclusion - Key factors such as success, limitations, lessons learned, and challenges that help generate recommendations for improved design
  11. 11. III- Microeconomic Analysis - The impact of supply chain policy on the livelihood of an average farmer - The tomato supply chain organization as a case study
  12. 12. A mix of qualitative and quantitative analysis Statistical analysis of available hard data • Correlations between policy focalization and performance of social indicators Qualitative analysis • Semi-structured interviews - SWOT Analysi. Household surveys and econometrics • Determinants of Production (MCO) Associated probability (Probit) Assessing the impact on poverty, income and productivity (PSM) Changes in poverty levels (Probit)
  13. 13. How do you identify and engage different actors in the policy process research? • Donors / government / Researcher interest must match • Offer support in the identification of themes that have the biggest potential to impact on policies
  14. 14. Empirical Findings/Reflections on Policy Process Research Average ISI and Variability by Supply Chain Organization
  15. 15. COMPETITIVE RESULTS
  16. 16. Case Studies • Cacao in Santander – ISI: 21 – 48% of national production • Plantains in Quindío – ISI: 8.3 – 11% of national production • Vegetables in Boyacá – ISI: does not exist – 24% of national production
  17. 17. Concepts
  18. 18. SANTANDER REGIONAL CACAO COMMITTEE: SWOT
  19. 19. Changes in the poverty level (PPI score) Dependent Variable: Positive changes in PPI (Yes=1; No=0) Policy Variable: Membership with a producer association Methodology: Probit  A unit increase in the index of training given by a producer association to the tomato producers represents an increase of 1.38% in the probability that the household PPI score experiment a positive change, on average ceteris paribus  If the farmer diversifies, an additional crop apart from tomato, increased the probability by 9.24% of having higher PPI score  When the proportion of male in the household increases, it is more likely to escape poverty
  20. 20. What worked well about your methods? • Research is focused on identifying, designing and communicating products as inputs for decision making. “3PBs” + “WORKSHOP” + “Meetings” + “Blogs” • Defining a Scope: the work is geographic- and themespecific • The best approach is a combinations of methods. Quantitative data may hide farmers realities • Dialogue with the actors and design of an ad hoc survey.
  21. 21. What still needs improvement? • Incidence on policy requires research by Demand. Donor interest may be not enough… Example: • Improving the ISI index must have public support
  22. 22. Unanswered questions/new research topics? We don’t have the right to impose our conclusions. Indeed, the Ministry of Agriculture is quite adverse to impact assessments of its policies. We need more data. For example, at the macro level Colombia has serious data gaps. A way to measure competiveness is with indicators/data but there is no…lack of agricultural census.. More case studies. One case study can not speak for the whole
  23. 23. How can we move from research to action on policy processes? 1. We need a theory of change of the research; 2. Identification of key people to influence and how; 3. Systematic interchanges with these groups to identify research demands and potential clients for current and new research outputs. Example Rural Development Group in Colombia supported by Rimisp • Caveats : Research is a public good. Not all research is indented to impact policy.
  24. 24. Thank You!
  25. 25. Impact on Poverty, Income and Productivity Methodology: Propensity Score Matching Propensity score: the estimated probability to associated given observble characteristics Impact Method Revenue per cycle (millions of COP) Productivity (canastillas/ m2) Control Difference T-stat 48.82 44.51 4.32 1.66 PTT Kernel Treatment Unpaired Progress out of Poverty Index(PPI) Sample 48.25 46.42 1.83 0.53 Unpaired 46.28 42.46 3.83 0.45 PTT 46.79 48.35 -1.57 -0.14 Unpaired 0.61 0.76 -0.15 -0.78 PTT 0.63 0.73 -0.1 -0.5
  26. 26. Institutional Strength Index (ISI) • ISI evaluates the implementation of supply chain policy at the regional level • Defined positively on a scale from 0 to 3, with higher scores indicating better performance of supply chain policy
  27. 27. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PRODUCTION, PERFORMANCE AND SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS

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