NB Prominent role of scenarios for forecasting changes in futurehazards and as a basis for uncertainty analysis. Scenarios work both ways - because future is in many ways unknowable, and we are thinking 20 years plus ahead. NB Important points at which policy influences. Scenarios determined by current policies and used to investigate the influence of potential policies. Ian M will talk more of scenarios. This project concerned with the right hand side, the parts in yellow. Stress use of tools. Scenarios work both ways - because future is in many ways unknowable, and we are thinking 20 years plus ahead. Concerned with the red bits Use of tools Type 1 decisions Type 2 decisions
So, IAMs must provide insight into the fundamental triad of sustainable development.
Our strategy for the CCC bid is to scale between the local and global, cognisant of different policy needs.
Here is a list of things that IAM modelers (and their critics) suggest are important, roughly organised along a continuum from biophysical (natural science) to geographic and economic systems, and ultimate social and ethical concerns. For example, IAMs generally use reduced form, simplistic climate models, much to the concern of global climate modelers. Surface hydrology is rarely included--such IAMs cannot simulate the potential for disruption to the North Atlantic ocean circulation due to influxes of freshwater. The discount rate is a common issue, recently related to how IAMs could address inter-generational equity the discount rate may not affect the choice of strategies). More difficult would be inclusion of significant changes in technology or consumer demand.
This tool is not an approach to national adaptation planning unto itself. But, used as one of a set of tools, it can have important implications for national adaptation planning processes. In particular, it can enable planners to get at and respond to the needs of vulnerable groups of people that might not otherwise register in standard sectoral or hazards-based assessments. Clearly, identifying the measures and strategies that communities and NGOs use to reduce vulnerability to climate hazards is a key step in determining how these communities can be helped to adapt to climate change; the SL approach can provide a framework for this. As important, this sort of assessment can help to identify the types of policies and socioeconomic conditions that thwart or support community efforts to withstand, cope with and recover from these shocks. In general, this sort of knowledge is not new; such work has been undertaken in other fields (disaster mitigation, food security, poverty alleviation). But by exploring and articulating these ideas within the climate change context, a timely focus on those whose lives and livelihoods are at greatest risk may be achievable.
Developed a framework that describes the process that should be adopted for analysing a climate sensitive decision. The framework is consistent with and developed from the Guidance on Environmental risk Assessment (‘GreenLeaves 2’) recently published by DETR, and largely developed by Simon Pollard and colleagues at NCRAOA. The framework for climate change decision making that includes the analysis of risk with uncertainty. Note that the framework should be used iteratively to represent changes in the future, including changes in our knowledge of actual and future climate change impacts. It can be used hierachically, to analyse decisions taken by different types of decision maker. Finally, it can represent a tiered approach to the assessment of climate adaptation decisions. The supporting guidelines lead the user through a series of steps, each with some associated questions to be answered. These stages also point the user to some relevant tools and techniques to assist the decision-making process. The framework identifies a range of adaptation options available to decision makers, in generic terms, with an emphasis on the recognition of ‘ no ’ or ‘ low regret options’ .
Linking Policy to Practice Ernest L. Molua Agro-Environmental Economist (University of Buea, Cameroon) Redefining Africa's Agrarian Development Policies in the Face of Climate Change Challenge: AfricaAdapt Climate Change Symposium 2011, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Presentation Outline <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Rural & Agrarian Development Challenge </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change Challenge </li></ul><ul><li>Wither or Weather the storm? </li></ul><ul><li>New Perspectives & Policy Outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>
Introduction… <ul><li>Agricultural productivity growth in Africa during the past 40 years has not kept pace with population growth. </li></ul><ul><li>Cereal yields in the region have stagnated at about 1 metric ton per hectare over this period, while in East Asia cereal yields increased more than fourfold. </li></ul><ul><li>The per capita growth rate of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) in Africa was negative during the 1980s and 1990s, though improvements have been noted since 2000. </li></ul>
Introduction… <ul><li>Climate change is one stress among many now affecting agro-ecosystems and the human beings that depend on them. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change affect agriculture through bio-physical alterations in the agro-ecosystem and through social and economic changes at farm, region, nation, and global scales. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The challenge now is to create a framework for accommodating climate change impacts, adaptation strategies and capacity, and vulnerabilities, in the context of multiple stresses. </li></ul>
Aims & Rationale <ul><li>This discourse aims to reflect on the importance of linking policy making to practical effort on the ground that highlight the roles of institutional and governance arrangements in influencing livelihoods, power and politics to promoting adaptation to climate change. </li></ul>
2. Rural Agrarian Development Challenge <ul><li>Post independence African states have employed diverse actions and initiatives taken to improve the standard of living in non-Urban neighbourhoods, countryside, and remote villages </li></ul><ul><ul><li>rural development intervention, aimed at social and economic development, involved direct provision of amenities to improve living conditions or to enhance production. </li></ul></ul>
… Rural Agrarian Development Challenge…. <ul><li>Challenges: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Developing an integrated vision on agriculture and development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strengthening agricultural sector governance </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Improving rural productivity </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Accessing remunerative markets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Managing the natural resource base in a sustainable manner </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing Vulnerabilities </li></ul></ul></ul>
… Rural Agrarian Development… <ul><li>At the continental level, even NEPAD acknowledges that Agriculture & Rural Development is the key sector in overall development agenda: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Land and water management (pillar 1) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rural infrastructure and market access (pillar 2) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing food supply and reducing hunger (pillar 3) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Agricultural research, technology dissemination and adoption (pillar 4) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cross cutting issues (knowledge) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainable development of livestock, fisheries and forestry </li></ul></ul></ul>
Climate Influence Water level Structure Beach state Overtop Breach Flood Waves Flood event Extreme wave climate Beach morphology Extreme water level climate Changes to structure Mean water level Surges Land level Tides Rainfall, freeze/thaw, wave damage, animal activity, vegetation ‘ Everyday’ wave climate Wind speed direction Global temperature Atmospheric pressure Climate
<ul><li>high dependence on agriculture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>contributes approximately 30% of GDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>70-80% employment opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>low investment </li></ul><ul><li>limited arable land </li></ul><ul><li>reduction in crop yields: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>high mean temperatures; variable climate (precipitation) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>limited surface water availability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>poor soil quality </li></ul></ul><ul><li>force marginal areas out of agricultural production </li></ul><ul><li>increase stress on other fertile areas </li></ul>Africa’s Vulnerability to Climate Change
Reduction in the Area of Lake Chad 25000 km 2 To 1350 km 2 from reduced rain and irrigation The Challenge…
Climate Change Challenge Energy Demand Energy Supply Emissions Sequestration Climate Change Climate Variability Economic and Social Issues and Development Scenarios Scenarios Impacts Adaptation -ve Now, So what? Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Risk Analysis Forecast Models Options Appraisal Policy Analysis Uncertainty Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Evaluation Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty
Integrated actions Economic growth Sustainable environments Social equity 4. Wither or weather the Storm…?
<ul><li>Global </li></ul>- Need for integrated action Regional Local sectoral agriculture Fully integrated Global Warming water coastal health Drought Risk Coastal Risk Flood Risk Epidemic Risk wetter drier
5. New Perspectives for Rural and Agrarian Development
Components of full-scale Policy Containment (Weyant et al., IPCC, 1996) Atmospheric Chemistry Ocean Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Composition Climate <ul><li>Ocean </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Sea level </li></ul>Climate & Sea Level Agriculture, Livestock & Forestry Energy System Other Human Systems Coastal System Human Systems Crops & Forests Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Unmanaged Ecosystems Hydrology Ecosystems
<ul><li>Identification of the most vulnerable groups; articulate unique local vulnerabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Identification of locally-relevant resilience-building options </li></ul><ul><li>Enhanced micro- and macro-level enabling conditions for adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>Built local adaptation awareness and engagement of local stakeholders (potential adaptation project implementers) </li></ul>Expected Policy Outcomes … New Perspectives & Policy Outcomes
Climate Change Policy Decision Making Framework Climate change issue Climate change application Adaptation strategies Climate change research, monitoring Climate change policy Socio-economic scenarios Climate change scenarios Impact assessment Climate change policy Identify problem Implement decision Establish criteria for decision-making Monitor Risk assessment Options appraisal Identify options Vulnerability assessment Problem defined correctly ? Data information collection Yes Yes No No Make decision Objectives met ? 6. Way Forward…..& Conclusion