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Crafting Great Hypotheses - Droidcon 2016

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Building business apps is no joke.
As designers, we are often asked to create apps that have the wow factor, they need to be distinctive, and we are rarely appreciated when we create something pragmatic, something that simply works.
Moving forward in the face of uncertainty, it is essential to devise a plan, an UX roadmap that includes research, objectives and tests.
In a world where success is just when preparation meets opportunity, starting with ready to be validated solid hypotheses is the secret sauce to a project without risks. Are you a risk taker?

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Crafting Great Hypotheses - Droidcon 2016

  1. 1. UX TRACK HOANG HUYNH @aetheros CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
  2. 2. 2 WHAT IF Quantum Break - courtesy of Remedy
  3. 3. ABOUT THIS IS ME 3 HI! My name is HOANG I AM A DESIGNER Experience Strategist, partner PRSD CSPO®, Advisor and Consultant Lecturer, University of Bologna (FAM) Country Manager IDF @aetheros
  4. 4. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES4
  5. 5. courtesy of someone on Ebay5 HI! WE ARE A DESIGNER
  6. 6. courtesy of LADYBEARD6 HI! WE ARE A DESIGNER
  7. 7. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES7 MEANWHILE… ‣ Fact: Observations about the world around us. Example: “It’s bright outside.” ‣ Hypothesis: A proposed explanation for a phenomenon made as a starting point for further investigation. Example: “It’s bright outside because the sun is probably out.” ‣ Theory: A well-substantiated explanation acquired through the scientific method and repeatedly tested and confirmed through observation and experimentation. Example: “When the sun is out, it tends to make it bright outside.” ‣ Law: A statement based on repeated experimental observations that describes some phenomenon of nature. Proof that something happens and how it happens, but not why it happens. Example: Newton’s Law of Universal Gravitation.
  8. 8. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES8 IT’S NOT ABOUT
  9. 9. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES9 A STORY
  10. 10. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES10 A STORY 1880 Otto Frederick Rohwedder
  11. 11. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES11 ‣ 1912 Otto invented the bread slicer machine ‣ He sold everything to fund his new venture ‣ 1916 He created a prototype ‣ 1917 A fire destroyed everything ‣ 1927 He tried again A STORY YAY, OTTO KNOWS BEST!
  12. 12. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES12 ‣ 1928 … and again … and again …. and again… ‣ Once more, with feelings ‣ 1930 Continental Baking Company introduced sliced Wonder Bread ‣ The rest is history… A STORY YAY, OTTO KNOWS BEST!
  13. 13. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES13 ‣ 1928 … and again … and again …. and again… ‣ Once more, with feelings ‣ 1930 Continental Baking Company introduced sliced Wonder Bread ‣ The rest is history… A STORY SAD, OTTO
  14. 14. 14 CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES THE REAL HERO CHARLES IN CHARGE ! Charles Strite
  15. 15. 15 DO NOT RELY ON LUCK CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES THE BOTTOM LINE
  16. 16. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES16 ‣ We track everything on the client (app) and server side. ‣ We track every action, every intent, with their result. ‣ We track the elapsed time ‣ We track the errors and the rebounded actions and all the give ups. 0" 5" 10" 15" 20" 25" 30" 35" 1" 285" 569" 853" 1137" 1421" 1705" 1989" 2273" 2557" 2841" 3125" 3409" 3693" 3977" 4261" 4545" 4829" Number'of'Errors' Number"of"Errors" 0,00%" 50,00%" 100,00%" 150,00%" 200,00%" 250,00%" 300,00%" 350,00%" 1" 285" 569" 853" 1137" 1421" 1705" 1989" 2273" 2557" 2841" 3125" 3409" 3693" 3977" 4261" 4545" 4829" %'of'Errors' %"of"Errors" 0" 0,2" 0,4" 0,6" 0,8" 1" 1,2" 1,4" 1" 270" 539" 808" 1077" 1346" 1615" 1884" 2153" 2422" 2691" 2960" 3229" 3498" 3767" 4036" 4305" 4574" 4843" Average'Time' Average"Time"
  17. 17. courtesy from ADOBE17 A NOT SO FICTIONAL EXAMPLE
  18. 18. Crafting Great Hypotheses18 DEVISE A PLAN
  19. 19. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES19 ‣ What is the problem? ‣ Will it be considered? ‣ Will it sell? How? ‣ Will it be used? HOW? ‣ Will it be appreciated? ‣ Will it be loved? ABOUT THE BUSINESS LOVE MARKS AWARENESS FAMILIARITY CONSIDERATION PURCHASE LOYALTY LOVE WORSHIP
  20. 20. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES20 LEANING LEAN…
  21. 21. BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros21 THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS
  22. 22. BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros22 THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS WE ARE WRONG ’TIL “reasonably” PROVEN RIGHT WE ARE RIGHT UNTIL PROVEN WRONG
  23. 23. BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros23 THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS WILL BE TESTED (for sure) WE ARE ALREADY RIGHT (who cares?)
  24. 24. 24 If we believe there is even a one percent chance that he is our enemy, we have to take it as an absolute certainty. ~ Daredevil ” ASSUMPTIONS BY SHEER WILL BvS - courtesy of Warner Bros
  25. 25. Breaking Bad - courtesy of AMC25 DING. ASSUMPTIONS BY MEMORY OR EXPERIENCE
  26. 26. FOOTNOTE or SECTION TITLE26 ASSUMPTIONS BY CONTEXT
  27. 27. SHERLOCK - courtesy of BBC127 ‣ DEDUCTION:
 using general rules to m a k e a p r e d i c t i o n about a future event or action. ‣ INDUCTION:
 drawing new (hopefully) conclusions or rules based on observations or patterns of behavior. HYPOTHESES THE SMARTEST WAY
  28. 28. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES28 ‣ 1. Systems Analysis
 analyzing the parts of a system and how they interact; simulations ‣ 2. Problem Solving
 overcoming constraints or limiting conditions to achieve a goal ‣ 3. Experimental Inquiry
 generating and testing explanations of observed phenomena ‣ 4. Investigation
 identifying and resolving issues regarding past events that have confusions or contradictions THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD
  29. 29. 29 BIAS ARE ALWAYS BEHIND THE CORNER CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES NASSIM TALEB’S BLACK SWAN
  30. 30. 30 CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES BIASES
  31. 31. FINAL DESTINATION, courtesy of New Line31 ‣ The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It c a u s e s p e o p l e t o u n d e re s t i m a t e b o t h t h e possibility of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. BIASES - BEFORE
  32. 32. Dr. WHO’s Perception Filter - courtesy of BBC132 ‣ Somebody / Someone else's problem (also known as SEP) is a psychological effect where people choose to dissociate themselves from an issue that may be in critical need of recognition. BIASES - BEFORE
  33. 33. From TUMBLR33 ‣ Dunning-Kruger effect
 T h e t e n d e n c y f o r unskilled individuals to overestimate their own ability and the tendency f o r e x p e r t s t o underestimate their own ability BIASES - DURING A TEST
  34. 34. courtesy of James Clear34 ‣ Confirmation bias
 The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. ‣ Congruence bias
 T h e t e n d e n c y t o t e s t hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, instead of testing possible alternative hypotheses BIASES - DURING A TEST
  35. 35. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES35 ‣ Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all- along effect or creeping d e t e r m i n i s m , i s t h e inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it BIASES - AFTER
  36. 36. 36 GAMES, SIMULATION, INQUIRY CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES WITH YOUR COMPANY / CLIENTS THE RIGHT WAY
  37. 37. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES37 ‣ SIMPLE, CLEAR, CONCISE ‣ TESTABLE ‣ FALSIFIABLE
 (the opposite exists) ‣ CANNOT BE PROVEN
 (It’s philosophical) HYPOTHESES’ FEATURES
  38. 38. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES38 ‣ FORMULATE THE NULL HYPOTHESES (H0) ‣ CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE ALTERNATIVES ‣ DEFINING VARIABLES ‣ SPECIFY THE LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE ( THRESHOLD ) ‣ VALIDATE LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW CRAFTING HYPOTHESES BACK IN THE MATH CLASS
  39. 39. from DAVID SHERWIN39 ‣ Attitude-related hypothesis
 “TV watchers who use social networks like to hear about their friends’ favorite TV shows.” ‣ Behavior-related hypothesis
 “TV watchers only want to share clips from shows they watch most frequently.” ‣ Feature-related hypothesis
 “TV watchers are more likely to share a highlight from a show if it’s popular with other viewers as well.” IF WE DO [THIS] , [VARIABLE] of CUSTOMERS WILL [BEHAVIOUR] CRAFTING HYPOTHESES DOMAINS
  40. 40. ONE CLICK CUSTOMER CARE CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES40 THE SCENARIO ‣ One action bluetooth button
  41. 41. Hoang Huynh @aetheros CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES THANK YOU

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