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Automated Vehicles: lead or follow

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Zoltan Maklary discussed the government’s role in the transition to autonomous vehicles, at the 2nd International Driverless Vehicle Summit.

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Automated Vehicles: lead or follow

  1. 1. www.advisian.com Zoltan Maklary | Principal, Advisian 17 November 2017 Automated Vehicles: lead or follow Is government ready to decide?
  2. 2. What do we see now? What about the public? What is the role of government? The people will decide Outline
  3. 3. What do we see now?
  4. 4. 3.5 billion live in cities today and 7 billion will live in cities by 2050. 1.2 million people are moving into cities each week. The number of cars on the road will double by 2050, even accounting for new technologies. By 2050 there will be 600% more people on the move every day.
  5. 5. Sustainable energy and climate change Increasing computational power Community expectations New and evolving industries: • Automation • CAVs • Zero emission vehicles • Mobility as a Service • Adaptive traffic management Economics and industry $, Choices, Flexibility Artificial Intelligence Efficiency and Productivity Urbanisation and congestion Many drivers will lead to new technologies and industries
  6. 6. Governments have a major role and will - by action or inaction - strongly influence the outcomes.
  7. 7. Safety Energy Legislation Service Liability Support Employment Land usage Transport Infrastructure Government touch points
  8. 8. What about the public?
  9. 9. What is the opportunity? Will they use AVs? How will they use AVs?
  10. 10. The speed of uptake depends on public acceptance Source: Advisian, IPA, UNSW: Automated Vehicles: Do we know which road to take?
  11. 11. What is the role of government?
  12. 12. Education InfrastructureLegislation and Regulation
  13. 13. A ‘low road’ – where regulation and investment severely lags AV adoption A ‘middle road’ – where regulation is responsive, but follows observed community choices A ‘high road’- where the government sector ‘pick winners’ in advance of community adoption. 1. 2. 3. Driving the middle road
  14. 14. Government should take a path of middle road leadership where transport policy and investment decisions neither significantly lead, nor significantly lag, community choices.
  15. 15. A four phase national process 1. Understand the opportunity 2. Develop legislation and regulation 3. Infrastructure and data collection 4. Planning and choices
  16. 16. Engage with transport industry partners and road users to benchmark community needs, hesitations and choices regarding AVs Understand the opportunity 1
  17. 17. AVs offer opportunities? Road safety Road capacity Productivity Convenience Congestion (?) Car ownership CostsIncreased Decreased
  18. 18. Considerations • How will the public embrace adoption? • How will AVs affect mobility, urban planning, transport? • What new laws and regulations will be required? • How should the introduction of AVs be staged? • Will it begin with short trip shuttles, a right-of-way for AVs on assigned, controlled corridors or a mix?
  19. 19. Possible solutions  Regular benchmarking of community and user group opinions  Consult with industry (local and overseas) to gauge emerging trends and preferences  Significantly increase community engagement and communications during test and trials  Ensure trials have sound scientific and engineering basis
  20. 20. Develop concurrent federal and state legislation and regulations to allow AVs and Driverless Vehicles (DVs) to enter Australian roads Develop legislation and regulation 2
  21. 21. The current situation
  22. 22. Considerations • How and when will AVs operate legally on Australian Roads? • At present fully autonomous vehicles are illegal outside of approved trials • How does the private sector get involved? • What about security and privacy?
  23. 23. Possible solutions  Earn the trust of the community through open communication  Discuss the real issues, removed from the hype  Clarity around certification for vehicles  Prepare coordinated plans to align legislation  Learn from international experience  Harmonise state and federal legislation
  24. 24. Report on the number, type and location of AVs entering the vehicle fleet Plan for the changes we need to make now to capture the full potential of AVs Infrastructure and Data Collection 3
  25. 25. If roads could talk, we could… • Understand and respond to opportunities to enable and enhance the introduction of AVs • Develop smart infrastructure: vehicle to “anything” • Fully leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning • Review and optimise road design • Plan for change
  26. 26. Possible solutions  Road authorities to switch from asset centric to data centric • Real time traffic/road condition data for traffic and asset performance • Adaptive and predictive traffic management • Seamless multi mode transport management  Investigate cyber resilience  Prepare existing infrastructure – future proof
  27. 27. Assess AV uptake in long-term infrastructure, land use and wider strategic planning Identify other opportunities that will emerge Planning and Choices 4
  28. 28. Possible solutions  A national approach to collecting and sharing information broadly  Identify a programme of potential investments  Engage the federal and state Infrastructure “bodies”  Identify possible adjustments to existing regulations or legislation  Explore options to shift the road funding paradigm
  29. 29. Cheap Safe Convenient = Transition to AVs AV The people will decide
  30. 30. Summary
  31. 31. Government should take the middle road Four-phase national process: 1. Benchmark community attitudes 2. Develop concurrent Federal and state legislation and regulations 3. Report on the number, type and location of AVs entering the vehicle fleet 4. Routinely assess AV uptake and constantly identify opportunities
  32. 32. DISCLAIMER This presentation has been prepared by a representative of Advisian. The presentation contains the professional and personal opinions of the presenter, which are given in good faith. As such, opinions presented herein may not always necessarily reflect the position of Advisian as a whole, its officers or executive. Any forward-looking statements included in this presentation will involve subjective judgment and analysis and are subject to uncertainties, risks and contingencies—many of which are outside the control of, and may be unknown to, Advisian. Advisian and all associated entities and representatives make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information in this document and do not take responsibility for updating any information or correcting any error or omission that may become apparent after this document has been issued. To the extent permitted by law, Advisian and its officers, employees, related bodies and agents disclaim all liability—direct, indirect or consequential (and whether or not arising out of the negligence, default or lack of care of Advisian and/or any of its agents)—for any loss or damage suffered by a recipient or other persons arising out of, or in connection with, any use or reliance on this presentation or information. For more information contact: Zoltan Maklary Principal, Advisian Email: zoltan.maklary@advisian.com

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