Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

The Interdependence Between Urban and Rural Food Security in Asia 2011

236 views

Published on

By Professor Paul PS Teng, Dr. Margarita Escaler and Dr. Mely Cabellero-Anthony

Published in: Food
  • Be the first to comment

The Interdependence Between Urban and Rural Food Security in Asia 2011

  1. 1. The Interdependence Between Urban and Rural Food Security in Asia Professor Paul PS Teng Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning, NIE Senior Fellow, RSIS, NTU, Dr. Margarita Escaler Research Fellow National Institute of Education, and Dr. Mely Caballero-Anthony RSIS, NTU, Singapore
  2. 2. • Food security landscape in Asia • Importance of urban food security • Multi-dimensional nature of food security • Urban-rural linkages and interdependence • Policies & action interventions • Case study: Singapore Outline of Presentation
  3. 3. Asia: A contrasting scorecard • 60% of world’s population • Six of the top ten most populous countries • Fastest growing economies – “Asia-7” • 3.1B people; GDP $14.2Trillion • 27% of global GDP (rising to 51% in 2050) • Half of world’s urban population • More than half of world’s slum population • Eleven megacities • Large agricultural exporter and importer • 60% of world’s under-nourished Food Security Landscape in Asia
  4. 4. Food Balances in Asia Crop Item Million MT 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 WHEAT Global Production 596 612 682 684 648 Asia Imports (% of Global Exports) 35 (30) 31 (27) 34 (24) 35 (26) 33 (27) RICE (milled) Global Production 421 434 448 440 452 Asia Imports (% of Global Exports) 10 (31) 8.5 (29 6.9 (24) 8.6 (28) 8.7 (29) CORN Global Production 714 795 799 812 814 Asia Imports (% of Global Exports) 34 (37) 35 (36) 34 (40) 37 (39) 36 (39) SOYBEAN Global Production 237 221 212 261 258 Asia Imports (% of Global Exports) 39 (56) 48 (61) 51 (66) 61 (65) 68 (69) Source: USDA FAS
  5. 5. Asia by 2050 Food Security Landscape in Asia Urban 2010 Rural 2010 Total 2010 Urban 2050 Rural 2050 Total 2050 ASIA 1.8 2.4 4.2 3.4 1.7 5.1 WORLD 3.5 3.4 6.9 6.3 3 9.3 Three key drivers • ~20% increase in total population • ~89% increase in urban population • 51% of global GDP (from 27% in 2010) Population
  6. 6. Food Demand Changes in Asia • Reduced per capita consumption of rice • Increased consumption per capita of wheat and wheat-based products • Increased diversity in the food groups consumed • Rise in high proteins and energy dense diets • Increased consumption of temperate zone products • Rising popularity of convenience food and beverages • Westernization of diets Source: Pingali, FAO 2004
  7. 7. • Meat consumption 100 years ago, average 25 kg/person/yr Today, average 80 kg/person/yr (USA – 124 kg/person/yr) China:1962 – 4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 60 kg/person/yr • Fish consumption 1960s – 9.9 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 16.4 kg/person/yr China accounted for most of world growth (26.1 kg/person/yr) • Vegetable consumption - 1970s – 60 kg/person/yr; 2000 – >100 kg/person/yr - China: 1970 – 44.4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 270.6 kg/person/yr Food Demand Changes in Asia (cont’d)
  8. 8. At present, 50% of the world’s population lives in cities – Asia accounts for half the share By 2050, 70% will be urban (mostly in developing countries) with Asia seeing an increase of ~1.7 Billion Shift in the locus of poverty to cities Increase in slum dwellers to 828 M in 2010 from 777 M in 2000; Asia accounts for more than half the world’s total slum population Urbanization of Asia Asian Urbanization 2010 2050 Total Urban Population (millions) 3,486 6,285 East Asia 785 1,189 West Asia 155 296 Southeast Asia 247 501 South Central Asia 571 1,396 Urbanization (%) East Asia 50 79 West Asia 67 75 Southeast Asia 42 66 South Central Asia 32 56 ASIA 1,758 3,382 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision
  9. 9. Importance of Urban Food Security “A hungry person with low blood sugar is a very angry person – virtually ungovernable” Ruth Oniang’o
  10. 10. Why is food a security issue? * Lack of access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food Food Shortages Food Contamination Food Price Increases Deterioration of Health Deterioration of Nutrition Loss of Life Economic Instability Political Instability Conflict Social Instability Food Hoarding Food Insecurity* Globalisation Conflict Climate Change
  11. 11. Unique features of cities - Most food is purchased - Food basket is more varied and more diverse in origin - More vulnerable to changes in the int’l markets - Supermarket chains and control of access - Availability of more processed foods - Higher food prices have greater adverse effects - Poor living conditions for urban poor - Jobs of urban poor and insecure, uncertain
  12. 12. II. Physical Access Production Imports Stockpiles I. Availability Primary Production Crops/Animals III. Economic Access IV. Utilization Demand for Food Inputs Labor Land Water Sunshine Other Uses Fish Distribution Biofuels Animal Feed Poultry Mammals Aquaculture Capture Natural Ecosystems Population Increases Diet Diversification Lifestyle Changes Urbanization Etc. Processing/ Distribution Losses Household Food Security Trade Multi-dimensional Nature of Food Security
  13. 13. Issues of Concern Availability Physical Access Economic Access Utilization • Fragility of agro-systems • Climate change • Competition for land • Changing demographics • Waste • Int’l trade policies • Biofuel policies • Subsidies • Etc. • Poor infrastructure • Conflict • Market imperfections • Waste • Etc. • Health and nutrition • Fortification programs • Education • Etc. • Social programs, safety nets • Employment • Income • Macroeconomic policies • Entrepreneurship • Etc.
  14. 14. Urban-Rural Inter-dependence URBAN RURAL - Urban markets spur economic growth in countryside - Urban residents depend indirectly on agriculture - Incomes from non-agricultural activities and remittances help decrease rural poverty & increase agricultural innovation - Commuting and circular migration for rural residents decreases dependence on subsistence production for food security - In times of crisis, urban residents may migrate to countryside - Cities can have a more direct link with agriculture via urban and peri- urban agriculture
  15. 15. URBAN RURAL Threats to Urban Food Security Natural calamities and pest outbreaks Macro-economic policy changes Unseasonal weather patterns Rising energy prices Competition from energy sector Temporary illness/ unemployment Poverty Underinvestment in agriculture Competition for land Changing demographics HIV Climate Change Fragility of agro-ecosystems Agricultural policy Changes
  16. 16. Food Production and consumption At source Food Production and consumption Export of surplus Role of public sector Role of private sector URBAN RURAL RURAL URBAN PERIURBAN Feeding cities requires rural surplus production PERIURBAN
  17. 17. Approaches to ensure future surpluses in the “Hinterland” and in the global food supply chain? • Closing the yield gap – e.g. increasing farmer access to better seeds, fertilizers, water and pest management practices, equipment, training; improving market infrastructure and transport, etc. • Increasing production limits – e.g. modern biotechnology to improve seed • Reducing waste • Changing diets • Expanding aquaculture CHALLENGE: All of the above must be done in an environmentally sustainable manner
  18. 18. Policy & Action Interventions - Examples Availability Physical Access Economic Access Utilization • Increase agricultural productivity • Reduce waste • Encourage sustainable int’l trade • Review agricultural/ biofuel policies • Improve transport and infrastructure • Link farmers to markets • Reduce waste • Biofortification, dietary supple- ments, education • Improve health care • Monitor nutritional security progress • Improve infra- structure/hygiene • Social programs, safety nets • Increase entrepreneurial skills of farmers • Non-farm employment INVESTMENTS
  19. 19. FOOD SECURITY Trade Social developmentEnvironment Energy Agriculture Water Supply Land use Economic development Political stability Finance Interconnected Policy Making Labour & Employment Health & Nutrition National security Migration Education Public works
  20. 20. ASEAN ASIA-PACIFIC EUROPE & AMERICAS Global Food Supply Chain Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food Supply and Demand at regional and global levels -- Distribution Food Security: geographic connectivity
  21. 21. Country Major Ag Commodities Produced World Ranking Brunei rice, vegetables, fruits; chickens, water buffalo Burma rice, pulses, beans, sesame, groundnuts, sugarcane; 2- pigeon pea, cowpeas; 3- sesame Cambodia rice, rubber, corn, vegetables, cashews Indonesia rice, cassava (tapioca), peanuts, rubber, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, copra; poultry, beef, pork, eggs 1- palm oil, cloves, cinnamon, coconuts; 2 – rubber, pepper; 3 – rice, coffee, cocoa Laos sweet potatoes, vegetables, corn, coffee Malaysia rubber, palm oil, cocoa, rice, coconuts, timber, pepper 2 – palm oil; 3 - rubber Philippines sugarcane, coconuts, rice, corn, bananas, cassavas, pineapples, mangoes; pork, eggs 2 – coconuts, pineapple Singapore orchids, vegetables; poultry, eggs; fish, ornamental fish Thailand rice, cassava (tapioca), rubber, corn, sugarcane, coconuts, soybeans 1 – rice & shrimp exporter; 1 – rubber, pineapple; 2- eggs Vietnam paddy rice, coffee, rubber, cotton, tea, pepper, soybeans, cashews, sugar cane, peanuts, bananas; 1- cashew pepper; 2 - coffee; 2 –
  22. 22. Why should Singapore be concerned? • Net food importing country with limited land resources and largely urban environment • Imports over 90% of its food • Local production accounts for 23% eggs, 4% fish, 7% leafy vegetables consumed ASEAN ASIA-PACIFIC EUROPE & AMERICAS Singapore’s food sources
  23. 23. Enhancing local food supply resilience • Increase self production of selected items • Diversify food sources • Develop non-traditional supply chains through smart partnerships • Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture (UPA) – Agroparks; Aquazones – Vertical farming – Roof top aquaponics, aeroponics, etc • Stockpiles • Reduce waste • Etc. “National Food Security depends on Regional and Global Food Security”
  24. 24. Conclusions • Food security in Asia needs to be a priority – threat of hunger & instability could increase • Urban dimensions of food security merit distinct attention • Food security is multi-dimensional • There is no quick fix • More interconnected policy making is critical • More holistic approach is required • For Singapore, a broad-based, multi-sectoral, cross-nation approach is needed to ensure urban food security
  25. 25. AFRIS. AsianFoodRegulationInformationService. We have the largest database of Asian food regulations in the world and it’s FREE to use. We publish a range of communication services, list a very large number of food events and online educational webinars and continue to grow our Digital Library. We look forward to hearing from you soon! www.asianfoodreg.com adrienna@asianfoodreg.com

×