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Food Safety Challenges due to Climate Change 2012

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By Professor Park, Ki-Hwan, Department of Food Science & Technology, Chung-Ang University, presented at the Institute of Life Sciences Institute, 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety, November 2012

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Food Safety Challenges due to Climate Change 2012

  1. 1. 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구 Food Safety Challenges due to Climate Change 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Ki-Hwan Park, Professor Dept. of Food Sci. & Tech. Chung-Ang University ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012) http://www.ilsi.org/SEA_Region/Pages/ViewEventDetails.aspx?WebId=4D540914-EEB6-40E4-89EB-0B73BA3D76C1&ListId=478BE3CB-581B-4BA2- A280-8E00CCB26F9C&ItemID=66
  2. 2. 목목목목 차차차차 Global Climate Change CC & Food Safety Overview of Research Group Food Safety Control Strategy
  3. 3. Grinnell Glacier National Park, MT 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Global Climate Change
  4. 4. Enhanced greenhouse effect Climate change 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net cooler warmer storms winds floods droughts 3
  5. 5. Rising temperature Increases in pathogen growth and infection More precipitation more and longer periods with favorable pathogen environments Management practicesRising CO2 level In general… 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Management practices ⇒⇒⇒⇒ Rapid bacterial growth ⇒⇒⇒⇒ rapid host resistance breakdown Frequent strong rainfall ⇒⇒⇒⇒ less effective residues of pesticide Rising CO2 level ⇒⇒⇒⇒ more inoculum levels at the Higher CO2 levels ⇒⇒⇒⇒ lower plant decomposition ⇒⇒⇒⇒ more plant residues for overwinter ⇒⇒⇒⇒ more inoculum levels at the beginning of grwoing season 4
  6. 6. According to 4th IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report, climate change is altering disaster risk patterns in three main ways : Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as more frequent extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation, more intense tropical cyclones and expanded area affected by drought and floods; Changes in geographical distribution of area affected by hazards; Global Climate Change Prediction of Global Climate Change 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Changes in geographical distribution of area affected by hazards; Increase in vulnerability of particular social groups and economic sectors due to sea level rise, ecosystem stress and glacier melting. Hurricane Katrina, U.S.A Tsunami, Asia Earthquake China Flood, U.K Hot Summer, France Drought, Africa Ice Melting, Peru El Nino 5
  7. 7. Global warming will accelerate with predictions of the average increase in global temperature ranging from 1.8 to 4℃℃℃℃(IPCC, 2007) . By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to suffer increased water stress in sub-Saharan Africa and by 2080 2 to 7 million more people per year, will be affected by coastal flooding (Yohe et al., 2007). Global Climate Change Prediction of Global Climate Change 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Of the 262 million people affected annually by climate disasters between 2000 and 2004, more than 98 percent lived in developing countries (UNISDR/CRED, 2007). 6
  8. 8. Temperature: In 2020, +1.5℃℃℃℃ In 2050, +3.0℃℃℃℃ In 2080, +5.0℃℃℃℃ Precipitation: In 2020, +5 % In 2050, +7 % In 2080, +15 % Sea level: Increase 50 cm by 2100 Seasons: Summer increase by 45 days and winter decrease by 63 days in 2080 Climate Change in Korea Climate Change in Korea National Institute of Meteorological Research, 2007 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Han River in 1950 Han River in present 9
  9. 9. 14.514.514.514.5 14.014.014.014.0 13.513.513.513.5 13.013.013.013.0 12.512.512.512.5 12.012.012.012.0 11.511.511.511.5 1500150015001500 1400140014001400 1300130013001300 1200120012001200 1100110011001100 1000100010001000 900900900900 Days(>80mm)Days(>80mm)Days(>80mm)Days(>80mm) Days(>150mm)Days(>150mm)Days(>150mm)Days(>150mm) Climate Change in Korea 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net PrecipitationTemperature Extremes Rising temperatures Changing precipitation Extreme events tropical storms etc. ℃℃℃℃+ 1.8℃℃℃℃ + 217㎜㎜㎜㎜ ⇒⇒⇒⇒ ⇒⇒⇒⇒ 80 ㎜㎜㎜㎜ storm 110 ⇒⇒⇒⇒ 172 days 150 ㎜㎜㎜㎜ storm 16 ⇒⇒⇒⇒ 31 days 11.011.011.011.0 1910s1910s1910s1910s 1920s1920s1920s1920s 1930s1930s1930s1930s 1940s1940s1940s1940s 1950s1950s1950s1950s 1960s1960s1960s1960s 1970s1970s1970s1970s 1980s1980s1980s1980s 1990s1990s1990s1990s 2000s2000s2000s2000s 800800800800 1910s1910s1910s1910s 1920s1920s1920s1920s 1930s1930s1930s1930s 1940s1940s1940s1940s 1950s1950s1950s1950s 1960s1960s1960s1960s 1970s1970s1970s1970s 1980s1980s1980s1980s 1990s1990s1990s1990s 2000s2000s2000s2000s 10
  10. 10. present ℃℃℃℃4℃℃℃℃ increase℃℃℃℃2℃℃℃℃ increase Increasing temperature makes Korea subtropical 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net ℃℃℃℃ ℃℃℃℃ Increasing temperature 2℃℃℃℃ makes southern part of Korea subtropical area Increasing temperature 4 ℃℃℃℃ makes almost all peninsula subtropical area Summer period is longer than before wintersummer wintersummer 11
  11. 11. 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Climate Change & Food Safety
  12. 12. • Globalisation & changing food trade patterns •• ClimateClimate changechange • Technology development (for example Major drivers of food safety risks 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net • Technology development (for example nanotechnology) • Economy 13
  13. 13. • Temperatures will increase, winters will be wetter, summers drier and there will be an increase in intense rain events • Changes are likely to affect the prevalence of disease and the usage of chemicals Potential impacts on risks of chemicals and pathogens from agriculture 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net • Changes in soil characteristics and hydrology • Climatic changes likely to affect fate and transport of pathogens and chemicals • Risks could be very different from today 14
  14. 14. • Flooding will increase exposure and risk to endemic livestock pathogens (anthrax, liver fluke, fecal/oral pathogens) • Ectoparasitic diseases will increase • Emergence, and increase in prevalence, of some arthropod vector-borne diseases in livestock is likely Impacts of CC on Animal Disease 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net • Prevalence of diseases caused by anaerobic spore-forming bacteria (e.g. botulism and anthrax) may increase due to wetter conditions • The prevalence of liver flukes may increase because of warmer, wetter conditions • The prevalence of endemic diseases (e.g. Escherichia coli O157, Toxoplasma, Giardia, salmonellas, campylobacters) transmitted by fecal-oral routes may increase due to flooding and wetter conditions, although environmental survival is typically less 15
  15. 15. Climate change & Hazards Glacier Melting Changes in the Atmosphere: Composition, Circulation N2, O2, CO2, Ar, N2O, CH4 , O3 etc. Increase Sea level and temp. Changes in the Hydrological Cycle Hazards Outbreaks 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Sea Ice Increase Sea level and temp. Change plankton HAB Contaminating Shellfish Increase Use of Pesticides Enhance pest activity Rapid reproducing Spread after floods Increase vector-borne virus Increase livestock disease Increase use of Vet. drug Increase precipitation, temp. & humidity Poorly dried crop Mycotoxin Produced Increase pesticides 16
  16. 16. • Importance of integrated approach to food safety, animal and plant health, with associated environmental risks • Need to intensify efforts to implement programmes of food safety control system at national level – Application of good practices Climate change related phenomena highlighted… 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net – Monitoring and surveillance (food, environment, animal and human health) • Need of predictive approaches (modelling, strategies) 17
  17. 17. 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Overview of Research Group on Food Safety Control against Climate Change
  18. 18. Name of Research Group : “Research Group on Food Safety Control against Climate Change” Research Group Leader : Prof. Ki-Hwan Park (Chung-Ang Univ.) Research Grant : $2 Million/year Research Period : 2010 ~ 2014 (5 Years) Introduction Climate Change & Food Safety Research 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Research Period : 2010 ~ 2014 (5 Years) No. of Research Sub-projects : 23 projects 19
  19. 19. Strategy & Structure of Research Group 1st Mid Unit Prediction & Model Development Health evaluation and R&D Planning Collaboration and Symposium Food Safety Prediction on Climate Change 2nd Mid Unit Bacteria, Virus, Parasites, Shellfish toxin Mycotoxin, Pesticides, Vet. Drug, Rapid Detection Method Control and Analysis of Hazards thru Simulation and Monitoring Food Safety Control 1 2 3 4 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net 3rd Mid Unit 4th Mid Unit Development of Safety Control Process Technology Consumer Awareness Survey Risk Communication with Expert Education and Public Relation Consumer Awareness and Risk Communication Low Co2 Tech. & Green foods Policy Control Technology in Manufacture Process Distribution, Foreign Materials System on Climate Change Hazards Climate Change 1 2 3 4 Risk Communication ProcessingPrediction Model 20
  20. 20. Patent application! Centralized DatabaseCentralized Database Big dataBig data--mining (data analysis)mining (data analysis) CCCC--MIMSMIMS ccfsccfs--DMCDMC Data collection, analysis and construction of statistical basis for climate change information 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net • Multi-dimensional data merging, processing between climate change and hazard variables • Statistical data-mining Descriptive analysis Predictive analysis Lag-time effect processing • Risk Profile D/B against climate change Cause/Effect tracking approach Provide visual database service (Monitoring Information Management System due to climate change) (Data Mining Center for food safety against climate change) [Features] CONTAMINANET DATABASE Web based data- warehouse system Complete, consistent and deducted data acquisition Systemic database based on hazard and food code system Versatile data searching and downloading system CLIMATE DATABASE Past 13yrs. weather database in Korea Prediction database by future scenario in Korea Support qualitative and quantitative climate observation variables (16 factors) Special retrieval of eventual variable (eg, typhoon) Food-climate Composition database [Features] 21
  21. 21. PG-ⅣⅣⅣⅣ PG-ⅢⅢⅢⅢ PG-ⅡⅡⅡⅡ Prediction & Impact Assessment on Food Safety due to Climate Change 2010 Project2010 Project 『Impact Assessment on Food Safety by Factor Analysis of Climate Change』 Identification of Direct & Indirect Impacts on Food Safety in Korea due to Climate Change Integrated Impact Assessment on Food Safety due to CC for Adaptation Development of 2012 Plan2012 Plan 『Integrated Impact Assessment on Food Safety in Korea due to Climate Change』 20112011 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Paradigm of Strategic Plan Development Mitigation → Adaptation ↓ Development of Adaptation Strategies Development of model- & Simulation based Scenarios of Food Safety in Korea due to CC Development of Impact Assessment Frame on Food Safety due to Climate Change 2011 Project2011 Project 『Prediction & Impact Assessment on Food Safety due to Climate Change』 22
  22. 22. 2 Area 1 Area Su-Won Won-ju Gang-Neung I-Cheon Pyeong-Chang Po-Hang Yang-Pyeong |||| Foodborne Pathogen monitoring on sample in each 3 area |||| Development of Predictive Model Inoculation : S. aureus etc. Humidity : 40~80% Temp : 4~45℃ Incubation 0 2 4 6 8 0 20 40 60 80 100 Time (hr) logCFU/g 80%RH 70%RH 60%RH Growth curve |||| Microbiological Risk Assessment MRA simulation model Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Foodborne Pathogens 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net 3 Area Dae-Jeon Bu-San Ul-San Mil-Yang Nam-Won Sun-Cheon Sample : Vegetables Microorganism : Total bacteria, Coliform, E. coli Foodborne pathogen : S. aureus, B. cereus, Salmonella spp., L. monocytogenes, E. coli O157:H7 ModifiedGompertzmodel Y=N0+C*exp{{{{-exp((2.718*SGR/C)*(LT-X)+1)}}}} N0,loginitialnumberofcells -C:differencebetweeninitialandfinalcellnumbers -LT:delaybeforegrowth,sameunitsasX -SGR:maximumspecificgrowthrate -X:time/Y:logcell GR=0.37103+0.0282*T-2.278*RH+0.01157*T*RH-0.0003822*T2+1.6355*RH2 LT=40.904-1.135*T-55.58*RH-0.1278*T*RH+0.01653*T2+44.94*RH2 Development of Primary predictive model Development of Secondary predictive model R2 = 0.951 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Observed LT PredictedLT ) n )/log( ( observedpredicted 10 ∑ = µµ fB ) n |)/log(| ( observedpredicted 10 ∑ = µµ fA nAverage SEP dpredictiveobserved observed ∑ − = 2 )( )( 100 % µµ µ Validation of secondary predictive model y=a*exp(b/(x+c)) R2 =0.9934 Temperature (C) 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Time(hr) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Predicted line Estimated values 95% Prediction Band y = 1.5509*exp(36.6583/(x+0.1213)) y(hr): Time, x(℃): Current temp Time-temperature criterion 23
  23. 23. Home Page |||| www.climate-food.net 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net 24
  24. 24. 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net Food Safety Control Strategy
  25. 25. • An action (ignoring washing hands) – Carrier of pathogens; cause of consumer health problems in several regions, even several countries • Factors affecting food safety – Origin: Imported foods and ingredients – Consumer: Increase of immigrant, elder people Food Safety – Butterfly Effect 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net – Consumer: Increase of immigrant, elder people – Science: Organic product, minimally processed food, resistant microorganism, seasonal foodborne outbreak, weather change (El nino) • We can't always know what impact our day-to-day decisions will have farther down the line, but we do know that a small event can have a big impact. 26
  26. 26. • Climate change likely to affect pathogen types and spread as well as chemical use and inputs in agriculture • Fate and transport of contaminants in the environment will change Food Safety Control against CC 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단 www.climate-food.net • Highly complex problem – some changes could reduce risks other might increase the risks • Need to take a whole system approach 27
  27. 27. AFRIS. AsianFoodRegulationInformationService. We have the largest database of Asian food regulations in the world and it’s FREE to use. We publish a range of communication services, list a very large number of food events and online educational webinars and continue to grow our Digital Library. We look forward to hearing from you soon! www.asianfoodreg.com adrienna@asianfoodreg.com

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