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Connecting the Dots Between
Online Media and Offline Purchases

Casey Carey, CMO
@caseycarey

1
2
A simple idea... to change the
output,

you may need to change some
of the inputs.

@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

3
Let’s Test the Notion

@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

4
Find the Numbers in Sequential
Order Starting with 1
97
89
13
77
41
63
75
3
83
55

21
49
57
33
69
7
47
43
11
95

37
1
25
73
85
79
27
23
91
51

9
53
17
45
29
39
59
19
35
99

61
81
65
93
5
15
31
71
87
67

14
34
90
38
98
76
100
4
72
20

74
82
22
78
50
48
24
52
28
88

26
46
70
2
62
12
36
40
80
44

6
66
30
42
54
16
56
32
8
92

94
18
58
86
10
96
68
60
84
64

5
Same Goal With More Information
53
29
17
45
9
99
59
39
35
19

81
5
65
93
61
67
31
15
87
71

89
41
13
77
97
55
75
63
83
3

49
69
57
33
21
95
47
7
11
43

1
85
25
73
37
51
27
79
91
23

46
62
70
2
26
44
36
12
80
40

66
54
30
42
6
92
56
16
8
32

18
10
58
86
94
64
68
96
84
60

34
98
90
38
14
20
100
76
72
4

82
50
22
78
74
88
24
48
28
52

6
What is the Opportunity?
Traditionally, digital attribution only accounts for online
purchases and other “soft” online conversions, yet offline
transactions account for a large portion of the overall
business.
Examples of offline transactions
influenced by online media
• Retail – store and call-center
purchases
• FSI – loan, credit card applications,
and new account applications
• Auto – test drives and purchases
• Telecom – in-store and kiosk
purchases

@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

7
Case Study –
Big Box Specialty Retailer

@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

8
Case Study – The Situation Report
Offline
•Large Specialty Retailer
• 2000+ stores
• North America

•Offline Marketing
• 4 page FSIs
• In-store promos and events
• Loyalty card

•POS Data
• Credit-card look-up
• Email receipt
@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

Digital
• Digital Marketing Channels
•
•
•
•
•
•

Display
Organic Search
Paid Search
Email
Direct navigation
Social

• Online Conversion Events
•
•
•
•
•

Email sign-up
Coupon download/print
Store locator
Gift card purchase
Event registration

9
The Question? How Does This
Sequence of Events

@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

Impact This?
10
Most Common Techniques for
Connecting Offline to Online
•A complete toolbox depending on
business and data collection constraints
• Account creation
• Online surveys
• Email subscriptions
• Product registrations
• Loyalty programs
• Special offers, discounts
and events
• Services and support
• Email receipts/promos
@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

11

11
Integrating the Offline Conversion
into Digital Attribution

Send
Transaction
File
Email

Ongoing
Cookie Sync

Name
Al Smith
Susan Lee

janej@gmail.com

@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

Jane Jones

Match Offline
to Online

Postal Address
1401 Adams St
Denver, CO 80208
520 Broadway
New York, NY, 10012
1600 Barton Springs Rd
Austin, TX 78704

Attribution
Processing

Date

Segment

Amount

01/12/13

HV501

$143.23

01/12/13

NC202

$65.89

01/12/13

AV304

*$36.45

12
Simple vs. Data-Driven Attribution

LAST
EVENT
0%

0%

0%

100%

25%

25%

25%

25%

30%

15%

15%

40%

EVEN

Simple
Rules-Based
AD-HOC

Data-Driven
@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

(Algorithmic)
45%

15%

10%

30%
13
Next-Generation Attribution Provides
Greater Clarity Into Performance
 Data-driven, probabilistic
model
 Leverages all user-level
interactions including
impressions
 Full-funnel view of media
performance
 Can include both online
and offline conversion
events
14
12% of POS Revenue Attributed to
Online Media

Representing 550K Transactions
Worth $63M in Sales
15
Two-Thirds are Multi-Touch
Journeys

1-in-5 are Multi-Channel
@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

16
Email

Organic Search

Direct Navigation

Paid Search

Display

Channel Performance
•Conversion to
Cost Index
•Display – 1.1
•PPC – 0.07

•Email – ???

Search Underperforming While
Opportunities Exist in Display
17
Conversion to
Cost Index

general

brand

Paid Search Performance

Brand – 2.35
General – 2.16
Category 3

Category 2

Category 1

Category 1– 0.73
Category 2 – 0.20
Category 3 – 0.90

Shift from Click-Based Optimization
to Sales-Based
18
Funnel Stage Analysis
Channel

Display Credited with 68% of
Conversions – Lower Funnel
19
Display Lift Analysis
Offline Sales – Assisted Channel: Organic Search

Display Lift
Organic Search – 23%
Paid Search – 23%

Offline Sales– Assisted Channel: Paid Search

Email – 46%

Offline Sales – Assisted Channel: Email Click

@caseycarey
#iMediaSummit

20
Funnel Stage Analysis
Site

Adjust Creative Based on Site
Audience
21
Washington DC

New York

Los Angeles

Display Geo Performance
Conversion to
Cost Index
SFO – 0.51
NYC – 0.55

San Francisco

Atlanta

Chicago

CHI – 1.18
ATL – 1.19
DC – 1.30

Rebalance Investments by
Geographies
22
Next Steps
•Begin testing budget shift from FSI to digital
•Expanded display program
• Upper funnel creative
• Increase overall spend

•Re-image PPC program
• Optimize for both online and offline conversions
• Adjust spend in low-performing ad groups

•Incorporate additional data
• Overlay audience data to better understand segments
• Fully integration email and social channels

23
Casey Carey
CMO, Adometry
casey.carey@adometry.com

24

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Connecting Online Media and Offline Purchases

  • 1. Connecting the Dots Between Online Media and Offline Purchases Casey Carey, CMO @caseycarey 1
  • 2. 2
  • 3. A simple idea... to change the output, you may need to change some of the inputs. @caseycarey #iMediaSummit 3
  • 4. Let’s Test the Notion @caseycarey #iMediaSummit 4
  • 5. Find the Numbers in Sequential Order Starting with 1 97 89 13 77 41 63 75 3 83 55 21 49 57 33 69 7 47 43 11 95 37 1 25 73 85 79 27 23 91 51 9 53 17 45 29 39 59 19 35 99 61 81 65 93 5 15 31 71 87 67 14 34 90 38 98 76 100 4 72 20 74 82 22 78 50 48 24 52 28 88 26 46 70 2 62 12 36 40 80 44 6 66 30 42 54 16 56 32 8 92 94 18 58 86 10 96 68 60 84 64 5
  • 6. Same Goal With More Information 53 29 17 45 9 99 59 39 35 19 81 5 65 93 61 67 31 15 87 71 89 41 13 77 97 55 75 63 83 3 49 69 57 33 21 95 47 7 11 43 1 85 25 73 37 51 27 79 91 23 46 62 70 2 26 44 36 12 80 40 66 54 30 42 6 92 56 16 8 32 18 10 58 86 94 64 68 96 84 60 34 98 90 38 14 20 100 76 72 4 82 50 22 78 74 88 24 48 28 52 6
  • 7. What is the Opportunity? Traditionally, digital attribution only accounts for online purchases and other “soft” online conversions, yet offline transactions account for a large portion of the overall business. Examples of offline transactions influenced by online media • Retail – store and call-center purchases • FSI – loan, credit card applications, and new account applications • Auto – test drives and purchases • Telecom – in-store and kiosk purchases @caseycarey #iMediaSummit 7
  • 8. Case Study – Big Box Specialty Retailer @caseycarey #iMediaSummit 8
  • 9. Case Study – The Situation Report Offline •Large Specialty Retailer • 2000+ stores • North America •Offline Marketing • 4 page FSIs • In-store promos and events • Loyalty card •POS Data • Credit-card look-up • Email receipt @caseycarey #iMediaSummit Digital • Digital Marketing Channels • • • • • • Display Organic Search Paid Search Email Direct navigation Social • Online Conversion Events • • • • • Email sign-up Coupon download/print Store locator Gift card purchase Event registration 9
  • 10. The Question? How Does This Sequence of Events @caseycarey #iMediaSummit Impact This? 10
  • 11. Most Common Techniques for Connecting Offline to Online •A complete toolbox depending on business and data collection constraints • Account creation • Online surveys • Email subscriptions • Product registrations • Loyalty programs • Special offers, discounts and events • Services and support • Email receipts/promos @caseycarey #iMediaSummit 11 11
  • 12. Integrating the Offline Conversion into Digital Attribution Send Transaction File Email Ongoing Cookie Sync Name Al Smith Susan Lee janej@gmail.com @caseycarey #iMediaSummit Jane Jones Match Offline to Online Postal Address 1401 Adams St Denver, CO 80208 520 Broadway New York, NY, 10012 1600 Barton Springs Rd Austin, TX 78704 Attribution Processing Date Segment Amount 01/12/13 HV501 $143.23 01/12/13 NC202 $65.89 01/12/13 AV304 *$36.45 12
  • 13. Simple vs. Data-Driven Attribution LAST EVENT 0% 0% 0% 100% 25% 25% 25% 25% 30% 15% 15% 40% EVEN Simple Rules-Based AD-HOC Data-Driven @caseycarey #iMediaSummit (Algorithmic) 45% 15% 10% 30% 13
  • 14. Next-Generation Attribution Provides Greater Clarity Into Performance  Data-driven, probabilistic model  Leverages all user-level interactions including impressions  Full-funnel view of media performance  Can include both online and offline conversion events 14
  • 15. 12% of POS Revenue Attributed to Online Media Representing 550K Transactions Worth $63M in Sales 15
  • 16. Two-Thirds are Multi-Touch Journeys 1-in-5 are Multi-Channel @caseycarey #iMediaSummit 16
  • 17. Email Organic Search Direct Navigation Paid Search Display Channel Performance •Conversion to Cost Index •Display – 1.1 •PPC – 0.07 •Email – ??? Search Underperforming While Opportunities Exist in Display 17
  • 18. Conversion to Cost Index general brand Paid Search Performance Brand – 2.35 General – 2.16 Category 3 Category 2 Category 1 Category 1– 0.73 Category 2 – 0.20 Category 3 – 0.90 Shift from Click-Based Optimization to Sales-Based 18
  • 19. Funnel Stage Analysis Channel Display Credited with 68% of Conversions – Lower Funnel 19
  • 20. Display Lift Analysis Offline Sales – Assisted Channel: Organic Search Display Lift Organic Search – 23% Paid Search – 23% Offline Sales– Assisted Channel: Paid Search Email – 46% Offline Sales – Assisted Channel: Email Click @caseycarey #iMediaSummit 20
  • 21. Funnel Stage Analysis Site Adjust Creative Based on Site Audience 21
  • 22. Washington DC New York Los Angeles Display Geo Performance Conversion to Cost Index SFO – 0.51 NYC – 0.55 San Francisco Atlanta Chicago CHI – 1.18 ATL – 1.19 DC – 1.30 Rebalance Investments by Geographies 22
  • 23. Next Steps •Begin testing budget shift from FSI to digital •Expanded display program • Upper funnel creative • Increase overall spend •Re-image PPC program • Optimize for both online and offline conversions • Adjust spend in low-performing ad groups •Incorporate additional data • Overlay audience data to better understand segments • Fully integration email and social channels 23

Editor's Notes

  1. Rules based models = pre determined. These are the models that ad servers and site analytics provide.Data driven vs Pre-determined models. Important because we look at our clients data to understand performance.
  2. “Last Touch” story is incomplete and Advance Attribution tells a more complete storyHow to actually apply Attribution data to optimize campaigns?You can’t buy a sequence, so how can marketer’s properly optimize the entire purchase path?Scion has come to depend on Adometry’s Attribution data to properly allocate dollars and assign KPIs to each vehicle based on each vehicle’s unique ability to performCut tether from One-Metric-Fits-All OptimizationOptimize metrics based on position in the purchase path
  3. Video’s value is not at the end of the purchase path, but at the TOP of the funnelWithout attribution, many high impact vehicles like video simply don’t appear to generate sufficient ROASAttribution allows Opti to make a favorable ROI case for video which supports both brand and response goalsVideo’s true ROI matters to Scion because high impact creative has always been brand-appropriateUnder a last-touch model, we lose significant opportunities to leverage all our brand assets
  4. Video’s value is not at the end of the purchase path, but at the TOP of the funnelWithout attribution, many high impact vehicles like video simply don’t appear to generate sufficient ROASAttribution allows Opti to make a favorable ROI case for video which supports both brand and response goalsVideo’s true ROI matters to Scion because high impact creative has always been brand-appropriateUnder a last-touch model, we lose significant opportunities to leverage all our brand assets