Mindfulness inc a strategy for manager-selection

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Project on 'Behavioral Decision Making' exploring the thought process of selecting new managers. Looking at attribution errors, hidden data problems, the paradox of experience, memory biases and confirmation bias.

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  • You had that major meltdown in the Cup Final last week, and this was seen as the last straw by many of your fans, and even some of your players. Your manager has resigned. You have a great, successful past, but just can’t string the wins together in recent times. You’ve been through 7 managers in the past 5 years, and are now looking for your eighth.
  • Speculation is rife about who you are going to pick next. You’re being linked to just about every available manager. It's way too easy to be caught up in the narrative shaping up right now. Whether it's 'halo' effects surrounding these managers because of recent success and media coverage. There's way too much scope for 'confirmation bias' - or, data selection to feed into these existing narratives; and 'group think', which is that you guys have been thinking these problems through for a long time. Which is, of course, why you have hired us.We at Mindfulness Inc, believe that there is a better way to go about picking a manager – one who can not only inspire your fans and your team, but also lead you to victory. We’re going to take you through some of our thinking – about how you can pick a manager who is more likely to succeed, more likely to last.
  • Albert Einstein once said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results. Let's not make the same mistakes. We do this by defining the real problem, and for that I hand you over to Pierre Antoine.
  • Well, you could look at a variety of variables…
  • What makes a good manager?We can easily get caught up in 'narratives', 'stories'. Do these managers make the clubs, or the clubs make the managers? What sort of systems - the youth training programs, the coaching squads, the facilities, star players facilitate their success? We can all too easily make errors in attributing success or failures to the wrong factors. So we would instead flip that question,
  • To reiterate. It’s not about buying the best Manager out there. It’s about buying the best Manager for YOUR TEAM. You don’t want yet another rockstar who will burn out in less than a season, you want someone who can change losses into draws, draws into wins.To do this, you need to explore other *real* -- and perhaps often *hidden* performance data. For example…
  • This may seem obvious, but the teams which keep possession tend to succeed more – they win more games, and if they don’t win, they draw more often than not. http://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/2/Seasons/2935/Stages/5476/TeamStatistics/England-Premier-League-2011-2012
  • And you need to look beyond W/D/L. This is not as relevant …
  • We’ve all heard about the Manchester United manager – Sir Alex Ferguson’s – hairdryer treatment to players during halftime when they aren’t performing up to the mark.Halftime is the point where managers can most influence the game. This is the opportunity for them to intervene with the teams.
  • Where with the Possession and Passing analysis we looked at the sort of preparation the teams had in general, here we analyzed how the performance of teams changed after halftime. And we looked at variables such as no-change (which would imply the manager asking them to carry on as before), change in aggression, change in formation, and substitutions. And this is something that we will share at a future date.Which brings us to our recommendations:
  • Action Learning
  • We have all kinds of biases in thinking that we need to create checks-and-balances to ‘temper’. This is why we prefer to start with evidence. We propose a thorough statistical analysis going beyond the W/D/L paradigm.But we also want to have the broadest possible pool of talented candidates, and also assess a candidate’s ‘fit’ with the firm. Human side.
  • As we’re shortlisting, …
  • Mindfulness inc a strategy for manager-selection

    1. 1. + MindfulnessInc. A Strategy for Manager Selection Mindfulness Inc.
    2. 2. • Team Introduction• Why we‟re here• Defining the real „Problem‟• Recommendations• Q&A Mindfulness Inc.
    3. 3. The Team Tarra Thomas Arturo Gutierrez Pierre-Antoine Giroux Aditya Alexander Kalinin Gurucharan Singh Anupkumar Mindfulness Inc.
    4. 4. Why are we here? Mindfulness Inc.
    5. 5. Mindfulness Inc.
    6. 6. Mindfulness Inc.
    7. 7. Defining the real „Problem‟ Mindfulness Inc.
    8. 8. How does one measure a player? agents Goal assits money league Possession age reception mtr passing %age aggression positions scoring pts career rushing attrushing mtr right or left red card scoring pt Att draft rushing TD passing att possession Att reception International substitute Mindfulness Inc.
    9. 9. But what makes a good Manager? Mindfulness Inc.
    10. 10. What are the variables a managercan have direct impact on that we canmeasure and assess? Mindfulness Inc.
    11. 11. 1. Possession and PassesCompleted Mindfulness Inc.
    12. 12. Mindfulness Inc.
    13. 13. 2. Look Beyond W/D/L Mindfulness Inc.
    14. 14. Mindfulness Inc.
    15. 15. Win/WinningH1Win/LosingH1Lose/WinningH1Lose/LosingH1 Mindfulness Inc.
    16. 16. Recommendations Mindfulness Inc.
    17. 17. Management needs to be trained to tweak theirbehavior to eliminate various biases that exist• One day in-person simulation training with management team• Walk through key decision points and address changes – Simulate the five-step decision making process – Debrief on results – Learn and then analyse the biases – Model the process with behavioral tweaks Mindfulness Inc.
    18. 18. Decision Process 5 4 Selection 3 • Nomination Evaluation 2 • Analyses Interview1 • Interviews Screen • Backgroun Pre-Screen d • Shortlist of interviews candidates with peers/co- workers Mindfulness Inc.
    19. 19. 1. Pre-screening• Statistical Analysis – W/D/L – Team Performance Statistics – Conditionalities (W/W, W/L, L/W, L/L)• Player, Staff, Sponsor, Fan Interviews – Human Side – “Fit” assessment + candidates we haven‟t thought of Mindfulness Inc.
    20. 20. 1. Pre-screening• Counterfactuals – „Flip‟ the narrative. Who else beyond the 7? – What makes them successful? (Systems? Staff?) – Why might they not be the right choice? – If they weren‟t available, who would we get? Mindfulness Inc.
    21. 21. 2. Screening• Background Checks with previous colleagues• Market and peer assessment of competence Mindfulness Inc.
    22. 22. 3. Interview• On-Site• Walk the candidates through the tradition of the club• Probe for „feelings‟, fit• Devil‟s Advocate Mindfulness Inc.
    23. 23. 4. Evaluation• „Unpack‟ your mental baggage – Make experiences, feelings, preconceptions, and assumptions explicit – „First thoughts‟ Mindfulness Inc.
    24. 24. 4. Evaluation• Push for alternatives – Check vigorously for „deal-breakers‟• Juxtapose shortlisted candidate weaknesses and strengths against team weaknesses Mindfulness Inc.
    25. 25. 5. Selection• Notify successful and unsuccessful candidates of decision Mindfulness Inc.
    26. 26. Afterword• Establish clear KPI‟s• Establish a clear line of authority and space for manager to perform• Train new manager on data-driven decision- making methodologies, work on contingent variables with whole team Mindfulness Inc.
    27. 27. Q&A Mindfulness Inc.

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