Future of Open Source 5TH
Annual Leadership Keynote Michael Skok

The Panel Jim Whitehurst Tom
Erickson Michael Skok Mike Olson Adrian Kunzle President & CEO CEO General Partner CEO Managing Director @entrecapitalist 2

Welcome! Industry Investment Impact Direction
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Collaborators
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Who we heard from. (you!)
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Survey Response
455
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Survey Respondents Vendors Non-Vendors 4060
% 7

Survey Respondent’s Titles
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Agenda Industry Impact Investment Direction
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Is a Turbulent Economy Good
or Bad for Open Source? 100% 2009 2010 2011 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Good Bad 10

What Makes OSS Attractive? 2008
2009 2010 2011 Lower costs Lower costs Lower costs Freedom from VENDOR lock-in Freedom from Superior security Freedom from VENDOR Lock-in VENDOR lock-in Lower costs Access to code Freedom from Rapid pace of libraries VENDOR lock-in innovation Flexibility 11

Tipping Point – What’s Driving
Adoption? Other Mobility Vendor 3% 7% Lock-in 18% Quality 13% Economic 15% Downturn 14% Private Sector Adoption 15% 15% Public Sector OSS Adoption Experience 12

Top 5 Barriers to OSS
Selection Lack of internal technical skills 126 responses Unfamiliarity with open source solutions 122 Lack of formal commercial vendor support 98 Legal concerns about licensing 84 Does not conform to internal policies 65 13

Agenda Industry Investment Impact Direction
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What Sectors will be Disrupted
by OSS Over the Next 5 Years? Mobile MOST Database OS

What Sectors will be Disrupted
by OSS Over the Next 5 Years? MOST = Mobile New Mobile OSS Projects 4,000 3,000  3,800 new mobile projects in 2010 2,000  94% speficied, target 1,000 Apple iOS or Android 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Thanks to our collaborator Black Duck

What Sectors will be Disrupted
by OSS Over the Next 5 Years? “Code can be Office commoditized more Productivity easily than trained people, ingrained ERP/CRM LEAST business processes Business and mission critical Intelligence data” Michael Skok 17

How is The Use of
OSS Components Impacting the Manageability of Applications? More Less None 18

Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today
Other Custom 8% Development Ad-hoc 26% Support 17% Value-add 15% Subscriptions 20% Support 14% Subscriptions “Closed-source” Licensing 19

Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today,
and 2 years out… Other Advertisements Custom 8% Development Ad-hoc 4% 26% Support 17% 9% 17% 18% +2 Years 25% Value-add 15% 20% Subscriptions 7% 20% Support 14% Subscriptions “Closed-source” Licensing 20

What Licensing Strategy do you
use? (vendor only question) 45 Responses 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 For definitions refer to 21

Impact on OSS Vendors? Mobile
Devices SaaS App Stores Public Cloud Private Cloud 22

Impact on OSS Vendors –
Cloudy… 200 500 160 400 120 300 80 200 40 100 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 New OSS Cloud Projects Cumulative Projects *Projects specifically referencing cloud. Many OSS projects are suitable for cloud but don’t specify it. Thanks to our Collaborator Black Duck

Cool OSS Projects mentioned…
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Up & Coming OSS Companies
2009 2010 2011 25

OSS Investment – by the
numbers $466M $7.0M $112M 24% 22% 72% Dollars Deals Ave Deal Seed, Invested Completed Size Series A 2009 $375M 73 $5.7M $65M 2.7% 71 26

OSS Deployed in Your Organization
96 94 89 85 75 Responses 67 62 42 0%- 25% 25% 75%-100% -50% 50%-75% In 5 Today Years Percentage of OSS is Deployed 27

IN 5 YEARS: What %
of Software Purchases Will be OSS? 50% or more on OSS 2016 2015 2014 2013 28

Wrap-up: The Open Source Path
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OSS in the Mainstream… Growing
Public Sector Investments Private Sector Adoption Adoption Avoid Vendor Lower Lock-In Costs 30

… But Not Yet Mature!
 Internal technical skills  Unfamiliarity  Vendor support 31

Watch for Path Traps 
Innovation vs. bloat  Maintenance costs  DevOps 32

Opportunities… OSS can: • Innovate
• Lead 33

A big thank you from
North Bridge to… Jim Whitehurst Tom Erickson Michael Skok Mike Olson Adrian Kunzle President & CEO CEO General Partner CEO Managing Director 34

FutureOpensource.net
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