Duncan Stewart - Digital Predictions

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Duncan Stewart presentation from BANFF/nextMEDIA 2010 - Digital Predictions

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Duncan Stewart - Digital Predictions

  1. 1. TMT Predictions.The Long View<br />June 14, 2010<br />
  2. 2. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." <br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />1<br />Niels Bohr<br />
  3. 3. 1. All cool technologies don’t succeed<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />2<br />
  4. 4. 2. Everybody knows that one horse runs faster than another. But which horse?<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />3<br />
  5. 5. 3. In other breaking news, the sun will rise in the east<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />4<br />
  6. 6. 4. Great technology…too bad it violates the laws of physics<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />5<br />
  7. 7. How we’re different<br />Eight predictions<br />One, five, ten and ‘never’ time frames<br />Pairs of:<br />Something important that most people expect to happen…but won’t<br />Something important that most people don’t expect to happen…but will<br />And two bonus fact checks (no perpetual motion machines)<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />6<br />
  8. 8. Deloitte’s TMT predictions are now released in 58 countries and expected to launch in 50+ cities in 2010. Predictions was first published in 2001. <br />7<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />
  9. 9. Smart phones: how to stay clever in a downturn <br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />8<br />
  10. 10. Disrupting the PC: The Rise of the Netbook<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />9<br />
  11. 11. The mobile broadband accident in slow motion: traffic jams on cellular networks<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />10<br />
  12. 12. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />11<br />The Long View from 2010<br />
  13. 13. eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />12<br />
  14. 14. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />13<br />
  15. 15. Smaller than a netbook, and bigger than a smartphone – net tablets arrive <br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />14<br />
  16. 16.
  17. 17. $10 per year for print…but $29.95 for the iPad app?<br />16<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />
  18. 18. The Goldilocks Device – additive or substitute?<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />17<br />
  19. 19. 3D TV: objects may be further away than they appear<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />18<br />
  20. 20. 3D TV falls flat<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />19<br />$3,500.00<br />
  21. 21. The dangers of too-literal translation<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />20<br />
  22. 22. Lexicon plus grammar<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />21<br />
  23. 23. Old style text-to-text translation (Babel Fish edition)<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />22<br />
  24. 24. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />23<br />
  25. 25.
  26. 26. Natural tech monopolies?<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />25<br />
  27. 27. Naturally fragmented markets<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />26<br />
  28. 28. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />27<br />
  29. 29. Wrong question. Will there be a de facto standard mobile OS?<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />28<br />
  30. 30. Not if these guys have anything to say about it!<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />29<br />
  31. 31. Will 4G Solve the Congestion Problem?<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />30<br />
  32. 32. Let’s talk about innovative disruption<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />31<br />
  33. 33. The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues <br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />32<br />
  34. 34. 33<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />
  35. 35. 34<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />
  36. 36. Powerful tools<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />35<br />
  37. 37. Unless…<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />36<br />
  38. 38. But child’s play with a 1970s calculator<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />37<br />
  39. 39. Public key cryptography<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />38<br />Diffie, Hellman & Merkle<br />(no idea what happened to Merkle)<br />Rivest, Shamir & Adleman<br />(aka RSA)<br />
  40. 40. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />39<br />
  41. 41. Ugly beast, ain’t it?<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />40<br />
  42. 42. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />41<br />
  43. 43. Not that kind of flux capacitor<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />42<br />
  44. 44. Poynting flux vector<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />43<br />
  45. 45. Oh well, at least it’s stylish<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />44<br />60 microwatts @0.7V<br />
  46. 46. The power of piezo<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />45<br />
  47. 47. The power of piezo<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />46<br />
  48. 48. Harvested energy versus required energy<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />47<br />Volts x amps = watts<br />To fully charge the battery at left at 0.7V by 7 microwatts would take…<br />581,428 hours, or<br /> 24,226 days, or<br /> 66.3 years*<br />
  49. 49. The mobile internet<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />48<br />
  50. 50. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />49<br />
  51. 51. Computing device market <br />Source: actuals IDC & Gartner, forecast Deloitte Canada <br />50<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />
  52. 52. TMT Predictions customized events<br />Duncan Stewart can deliver a tailored presentation for your office/industry!<br />Email Duncan: dunstewart@deloitte.ca<br />The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia<br />51<br />
  53. 53. Questions<br />

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