Strategic Foresight for Ontario’s Cultural Media Industries  What will our media and entertainment look like by 2020? Prin...
What is it that keeps us up at night? What is it that brings us together?  Implications for Action
<ul><li>In the face of internet-driven disruptive change,  </li></ul><ul><li>2020 Media Futures seeks to help our ‘Creativ...
<ul><li>What will our media be like by the year 2020? </li></ul><ul><li>How might the cross-platform Internet environment ...
<ul><li>Partners </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Innovation Lab (sLab), OCAD University </li></ul><ul><li>Achilles Media </li>...
Our Researchers <ul><li>Faculty and students from Canada’s first graduate degree in strategic foresight </li></ul>photo: f...
sLab strategic foresight & innovation model systems thinking visual thinking design  business futures user research busine...
War Games at RAND Corporation, 1958.  Photo Leonard Mccombe, Time Life/Getty images Foresight was born in post-War research
Foresight spun off: from military to commercial
STEEPV/Trends Analysis  Lead by Suzanne Stein (OCAD U), Scott Smith (Changeist) <ul><li>Social </li></ul><ul><li>Remix Cul...
Industry Roundtables Lead by Suzanne Stein (OCAD U) and Karl Schroeder  <ul><li>1. Book, Magazine, Music industries </li><...
Industry Roundtables Drivers of Change Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University  Implications for Action
Industry Roundtables Drivers of Change Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University  Implications for Action
Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University  Implications for Action Delphi Survey Critical Uncertainties with Gabe Sawhney,...
Why scenarios? Lessons from Royal Dutch Shell Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University  Royal Dutch Shell CEO Jeroen van ...
2020 Media Futures Scenarios  Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University  Ministry of  Investment Lords of  the Cloud Wedia...
2020 Media Futures Scenarios  Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University  Ministry of  Investment
2020 Media Futures Scenarios  Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University  Implications for Action Lords of  the Cloud
2020 Media Futures Scenarios  Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University  Implications for Action Ant Hill
2020 Media Futures Scenarios  Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University  Implications for Action Wedia
Workshop  Principal Partner sLab at OCAD University Made possible by OMDC on behalf of the Ministry of Culture 2020 Media ...
<ul><li>Pair off with a neighbour (or two) </li></ul><ul><li>Discuss the four scenarios (You can use the 1-page handout to...
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Digital Download: 2020 Media Futures: Resilient Strategies

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What will our media be like by 2020? If we could envision future technologies, behaviours, products, services, and regulations, how might we adapt our current strategies? In this provocative and engaging presentation by futurist and media designer Greg Van Alstyne (OCAD University) – building on the year-long, OMDC-funded 2020 Media Futures project – we will glimpse Canada's media landscape in 2020, workshoping ideas, strategies and actions we can take today toward resilient, long-term creative and economic success.

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  • I begin with two questions: What is it that keeps us up at night? What brings us together? I will argue it’s this exploding sphere (Opte Project, Barrett Lyon) The answer is: internet-driven digital media and the incredible pace of change
  • In this year-long project we’re asking: How can we help our “Creative Cluster” firms to: -Identify emerging opportunities and challenges -Develop new initiatives, models, partnerships -Compete in demanding global markets-Boost innovation? And the answer we’re developing: “Strategic Foresight”
  • In this year-long project we’re asking: How can we help our “Creative Cluster” firms to: -Identify emerging opportunities and challenges -Develop new initiatives, models, partnerships -Compete in demanding global markets-Boost innovation? And the answer we’re developing: “Strategic Foresight”
  • In this year-long project we’re asking: How can we help our “Creative Cluster” firms to: -Identify emerging opportunities and challenges -Develop new initiatives, models, partnerships -Compete in demanding global markets-Boost innovation? And the answer we’re developing: “Strategic Foresight”
  • What is Strategic Foresight? For those not acquainted with it, strategic foresight involves thinking about, debating, planning, and actively shaping the future. Foresight requires envisioning, understanding and making choices while anticipating and navigating change, recognizing and making sense of emerging signals from science and technology, the socio-cultural domain, the marketplace, the legal and political environments.
  • sLab’s model addresses complex business problems through design thinking but in going further, we add futures thinking and, integrating the whole, systems thinking
  • In the second great period of learning to pluralize the future, we developed a new form of research and learning. This era takes in an array of post-War settings, beginning with RAND Corporation, and including Herman Kahn’s Hudson Institute, the Stanford Research Institute (SRI), Jay Forrester’s work in System Dynamics at MIT, the multinational oil company, Royal Dutch/Shell, and a small number of consulting organizations including Global Business Network (GBN). RAND was founded in 1946 as a leading think tank for the U.S. military, working under exclusive contract to the Air Force. SRI, founded in 1947 was a university-based institute offering consulting services initially to the oil industry and later to business, the military and scientific organizations. Kahn founded The Hudson Institute in upstate New York after leaving RAND in 1961.In the beginning of my talk I suggested the cinematic origins of the term. But why did scenarios arise in this period?
  • The popularization of scenario planning in the corporate context has been attributed to the Group Planning office at multinational oil behemoth Royal Dutch/Shell, beginning with Shell’s Ted Newland who approached Herman Kahn at his Hudson Institute in the 1960s. In the late 1950s Shell had adopted a radically decentralized and matrixed “group” structure on the advice of McKinsey &amp; Company. As Art Kleiner has written: “Thanks to this structure, anyone like Ted Newland, with an idea that the future might change, could never simply convince one top boss or another to adopt the appropriate policies. Anyone who wanted Shell to change would have to find a way to make the future clearly visible, so a wide range of people within the company could see it coming.” (Kleiner 148) This idea helps to explain the power and relevance of scenario planning today. Our powerful technologies increasingly distribute agency and decision support to more and more levels and players in organizations and society. Communication technologies provide the conduit; but scenarios are need to draw on this diversity and bring coherence to the chaos. When conditions are right this enables the kind of Learning Organization described by Peter Senge in highly regarded works like The Fifth Discipline (Senge 1990), and The Living Company by Arie de Geus.
  • The two separate Roundtables identified more than 60 drivers of which 40 were considered &amp;quot;high impact/importance&amp;quot; in one or more industry-centred discussions. Project researchers synthesized from 40 Drivers to a manageable and distinct list of 20 by mapping together synonymous or highly related issues (for example, &amp;quot;Government Subsidies&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;Continued Government Funding&amp;quot;).  The list of 20 Drivers is prioritized according to number of industries selecting that driver (or a synonym) as &amp;quot;high impact&amp;quot;. Topmost (dark orange) are Drivers selected as &amp;quot;High impact/importance&amp;quot; in 5 the 6 industries. Next drivers (in orange) were &amp;quot;high&amp;quot; in 4 of 6 industries, then 3 (dark yellow), 2 (yellow), and finally (light yellow) are drivers considered &amp;quot;High impact&amp;quot; in 1 of the 6 industries. 
  • Today our focus will be exploratory We need to be creative, open to extremes of thought (On Wednesday we will shift to a more normative perspective) How will we do this? Using the building blocks of scenario thinking
  • Digital Download: 2020 Media Futures: Resilient Strategies

    1. 1. Strategic Foresight for Ontario’s Cultural Media Industries What will our media and entertainment look like by 2020? Principal Partner sLab at OCAD University Made possible by OMDC on behalf of the Ministry of Culture http:// 2020mediafutures.ca Twitter #2020mediafutures
    2. 2. What is it that keeps us up at night? What is it that brings us together? Implications for Action
    3. 3. <ul><li>In the face of internet-driven disruptive change, </li></ul><ul><li>2020 Media Futures seeks to help our ‘Creative Cluster’ organizations—in the book, magazine, music, film, TV, and interactive media industries—to: </li></ul><ul><li>Identify emerging opportunities and challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Develop new initiatives, models, partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Compete in demanding global markets </li></ul><ul><li>Boost innovation </li></ul>Motivation Strategic Innovation Lab OCAD University Barrett Lyon, The Opte Project opte.org
    4. 4. <ul><li>What will our media be like by the year 2020? </li></ul><ul><li>How might the cross-platform Internet environment shape our media & entertainment in the next decade? </li></ul><ul><li>How can Ontario firms can take action today toward capturing and maintaining positions of national and international leadership? </li></ul>2020 Media Futures asks: Strategic Innovation Lab OCAD University Barrett Lyon, The Opte Project opte.org
    5. 5. <ul><li>Partners </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Innovation Lab (sLab), OCAD University </li></ul><ul><li>Achilles Media </li></ul><ul><li>Association of Canadian Publishers (ACP) </li></ul><ul><li>Breakthrough New Media </li></ul><ul><li>Canadian Media Production Association (CMPA) </li></ul><ul><li>Corus Entertainment </li></ul><ul><li>CRTC </li></ul><ul><li>GestureTek </li></ul><ul><li>GlassBOX Television </li></ul><ul><li>Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment (MLSE) </li></ul><ul><li>Marblemedia </li></ul><ul><li>National Film Board of Canada (NFB) </li></ul><ul><li>Nordicity </li></ul><ul><li>Ontario Centres of Excellence (OCE) </li></ul><ul><li>Screen Industries Research and Training Centre (SIRT) </li></ul><ul><li>St. Joseph Media </li></ul><ul><li>Universal Music Canada </li></ul><ul><li>York University </li></ul>Project Partners and Contributors Contributors Survey participants Wiki contributors Roundtable attendees Workshop attendees Unconference delegates Interviewees Strategic Innovation Lab OCAD University Barrett Lyon, The Opte Project opte.org
    6. 6. Our Researchers <ul><li>Faculty and students from Canada’s first graduate degree in strategic foresight </li></ul>photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/
    7. 7. sLab strategic foresight & innovation model systems thinking visual thinking design business futures user research business & policy models strategic foresight
    8. 8. War Games at RAND Corporation, 1958. Photo Leonard Mccombe, Time Life/Getty images Foresight was born in post-War research
    9. 9. Foresight spun off: from military to commercial
    10. 10. STEEPV/Trends Analysis Lead by Suzanne Stein (OCAD U), Scott Smith (Changeist) <ul><li>Social </li></ul><ul><li>Remix Culture </li></ul><ul><li>Education 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Game of Life </li></ul><ul><li>Attention Fragmentation </li></ul><ul><li>Language Clash </li></ul><ul><li>Ecological </li></ul><ul><li>Green Considerations </li></ul><ul><li>The Problem of Stuff </li></ul><ul><li>Toxic Tech </li></ul><ul><li>Visualizing the World </li></ul><ul><li>Political </li></ul><ul><li>A Neutral Net or Not? </li></ul><ul><li>IP Challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance </li></ul><ul><li>Gov 2.0 </li></ul>Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Technological Hybrid Technologies Network as Platform Atoms to Bits Data Traffic Crunch Portability and Mobility Economic Agile vs. Formal Production DIY Distribution Aggregation Prosumers DIY Technology Transmedia Values Blurring Life and Work Inverting Privacy Social Collectivity Generational Differences
    11. 11. Industry Roundtables Lead by Suzanne Stein (OCAD U) and Karl Schroeder <ul><li>1. Book, Magazine, Music industries </li></ul><ul><li>2. Film, TV, Interactive Media industries </li></ul>Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University
    12. 12. Industry Roundtables Drivers of Change Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action
    13. 13. Industry Roundtables Drivers of Change Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action
    14. 14. Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action Delphi Survey Critical Uncertainties with Gabe Sawhney, sLab
    15. 15. Why scenarios? Lessons from Royal Dutch Shell Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Royal Dutch Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer http://media.csis.org/podcast/080401_p_energy_part1.mp3
    16. 16. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Ministry of Investment Lords of the Cloud Wedia Ant Hill diffusion of innovation measured, risk averse rapid, disruptive value generation commercially driven socially driven
    17. 17. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Ministry of Investment
    18. 18. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action Lords of the Cloud
    19. 19. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action Ant Hill
    20. 20. 2020 Media Futures Scenarios Strategic Innovation Lab, OCAD University Implications for Action Wedia
    21. 21. Workshop Principal Partner sLab at OCAD University Made possible by OMDC on behalf of the Ministry of Culture 2020 Media Futures
    22. 22. <ul><li>Pair off with a neighbour (or two) </li></ul><ul><li>Discuss the four scenarios (You can use the 1-page handout to refer to the scenarios) – 5 mins </li></ul><ul><li>What signposts point to one of the scenarios as possibly coming true? – 5 mins </li></ul><ul><li>Report back to the group – 5 mins </li></ul>Workshop Activity

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