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FEATURE
Change is in the air
The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on
the horizon?
Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, and Vincent Rutgers
​Hybrid-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles have the power to
transform the air traffic ecosystem. Learn about the challenges aerial transport
faces and how companies can take advantage of new opportunities.
Introduction
A century ago, aviation pioneer Glenn Curtiss
debuted the autoplane, a three-seat car-cum-aircraft
with removable wings.1
Ever since, automobile and
aviation enthusiasts have dreamed of “flying cars”
that can reduce trips that take hours on the ground
to minutes in the air, improving productivity and
quality of life.
After decades of failed projects and false starts, a
new class of vehicle is finally emerging that could to
turn these dreams into reality by transforming the
way people and cargo are moved in cities. To provide
insight into this rapidly progressing space, Deloitte
recently published a five-part series on the elevated
future of mobility. The findings and implications are
summarized in this article.
Almost two years ago, Deloitte published
Elevating the future of mobility, its initial view on a
new class of aircraft that promises to revolutionize
inter- and intra-city mobility.2
These aircraft, gen-
erally known as electric or hybrid-electric vertical
takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles, have the po-
tential to improve the future of elevated mobility by
moving people and cargo more quickly, quietly, and
cost-effectively than traditional helicopters. In the
initial paper, several challenges and/or barriers that
would need to be overcome before seeing the whole-
sale adoption of eVTOL aircraft were identified
(see figure 1).
In a series of articles, the barriers to an elevated
future of mobility have been highlighted, with rec-
ommended approaches provided for surmounting
them. Through this process, we have come to view
regulations as a subset of a holistic air traffic man-
agement system. The safety of eVTOLs will depend
on eVTOL vehicle maturity, ground infrastructure,
and the air traffic management system.
2
Change is in the air
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights
Source: Deloitte analysis.
Regulations
Formulating the regulations for pilotless
vehicles, airworthiness certifications
and the need for a pilot’s license
Air Traffic Management
Creating a robust air traffic
management system integrated
with other modes of transport
Safety
Amassing a flawless
operational and
mechanical safety record
Technology Maturity
Implementing efficient
energy management
systems, onboard sensors,
collision detections systems
and advanced technologies
such as artificial intelligence
Infrastructure
Constructing takeoff
and landing zones,
parking lots, charging
stations and vertiports
Psychological Barriers
Psychological barriers
related to flying in a fully
autonomous aircraft
FIGURE 1
Elevated future of mobility challenges
The eVTOL evolution
Much has happened in just the last two years in
the eVTOL journey. To tell a complete and timely
story, here is a summary highlighting the main find-
ings of the five Deloitte articles published, updating
them where appropriate:w
1.	 Elevating the future of mobility3
: Through
the cumulative efforts of eVTOL manufacturers,
operators, and other key stakeholders, elevated
mobility will likely become a reality over the
next decade. Despite challenges, manufac-
turers have begun testing vehicles; ecosystem
participants are collaborating on developing a
robust regulatory framework; and technology is
advancing swiftly.
Deloitte’s initial review focused on the
movement of people, but over the course of our
research, it became apparent that the move-
ment of cargo is just as important. In fact, it will
likely drive the early adoption of eVTOL aircraft.
Similarly, while the initial focus has been on the
end goal of fully autonomous vehicles, this un-
der-acknowledges the potential that early eVTOL
vehicles will most likely be piloted in order to
accelerate commercialization. Overall, there has
been rapid progress in the last two years, with
many stakeholders believing: “If you build it,
they will come.”4
Overall, there has been
rapid progress in the last
two years, with many
stakeholders believing:
“If you build it, they
will come.”
3
The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon?
2.	 Managing the evolving skies5
: As the skies
get busier, it is expected to be an ongoing chal-
lenge to manage and maintain an increasingly
diverse airspace while keeping all air traffic
moving safely and efficiently. A key enabler for
the future of eVTOLs could be unmanned aircraft
system traffic management (UTM), which would
have to work in conjunction with existing air
traffic management systems.
This “system of systems” is complicated to es-
tablish, but it is being pursued by a diverse group
of stakeholders, including eVTOL operators,
communication system service providers, data
service providers, and regulatory authorities.
Success depends upon all stakeholders having
trust in the essential elements of the air traffic
management system. This will require reliable
and available communication, predictable and
consistent navigation, and accessible, trusted
surveillance. These elements, coupled with
tried-and-tested procedures, coordinated teams,
redundancy, and continuous training, will be
mission-critical in enabling the system to operate
reliably and safely.
3.	 Psychological barriers to the elevated
future of mobility6
: Social acceptance, or over-
coming the psychological barriers, are expected
to play a major role in shaping the
eVTOL industry, as consumers are
at the core of the elevated mobility
ecosystem. For this article, De-
loitte questioned a global group of
10,000 consumers about their per-
ception of fully autonomous eVTOL
aircraft with respect to safety and
perceived utility.
Nearly half of the respondents viewed auton-
omous aerial passenger vehicles as a potentially
viable solution to roadway congestion.7
However,
80 percent of the total either believe that these
vehicles “will not be safe” or are currently uncer-
tain that they will be safe.8
eVTOL aircraft can
become part of the new mobility ecosystem only
when creators and operators convince skeptical
consumers that airborne vehicles are both useful
and safe. Shaping consumer attitudes will be
the joint responsibility of regulators, creators,
and operators of this new breed of aircraft.
4.	 Technological barriers to the elevated
future of mobility9
: Several complex tech-
nological issues need to be addressed before
air taxis and cargo transports take to the skies.
These persistent challenges are primarily related
to propulsion, situational awareness systems,
and advanced detection and collision avoidance
systems. While onboard technology is maturing
quickly, efficient energy management (including
battery capacity, speed of recharging, and cost
per kilowatt-hour) remains a limiting factor and
is proving to be a difficult challenge to solve.
It will likely take a group effort to eliminate
the remaining technological barriers to urban
air mobility.
To strengthen collaboration within the
ecosystem, participants should develop
and work on an integrated framework—
spanning manufacturing, operations, and
certification—to advance technologies in-
volved in eVTOL aircraft. This framework
should provide a structure for encouraging
collaboration within the ecosystem, harnessing
electric propulsion technology through alliances
and partnerships, leveraging advancements in
ground autonomy, and investing in cognitive au-
tomation capabilities.
Social acceptance, or over-coming
the psychological barriers, are
expected play a major role in
shaping the eVTOL industry.
4
Change is in the air
5.	 Infrastructure barriers to the elevated
future of mobility10
: Although pilot projects
are underway in major cities around the world,
the infrastructure necessary to enable large-scale
passenger and cargo transportation in urban and
suburban areas is not yet in place. The missing
pieces include the ground infrastructure (takeoff,
landing, and service areas), a robust communi-
cation and UTM system, and a seamless mobility
operating system. To pave the way for widescale
deployment, eVTOL operators and local author-
ities (such as cities and municipalities) should
start identifying feasible locations for com-
ponents of the ground infrastructure, such as
takeoff and landing, charging/refueling stations,
parking facilities, maintenance, and contingency
landing sites. They should also enlist the help
of information technology providers, who can
assist in building a well-connected infrastruc-
ture, and regulatory authorities, who can assist
in designing a policy and control framework that
is robust, safe, and secure.
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights
Source: Deloitte analysis based on company websites and press releases.
Pipistrel –
eVTOL Concept
Manufacturer –
Vehicle Name
2017
Announcement
Slovenia
Country
Electric
Electric/
Gasoline
Max. speed
(km/h)
n/a
No. of
seats
6
Max. range
(km/h)
n/an/a
Airspace X –
MOBi
2018
United
States
240 44168
Embraer –
DreamMaker
2018 Brazil Electric n/a 4n/a8
Rolls-Royce –
EVTOL
2018
United
Kingdom
Hybrid,
Electric
400 4-58006
VRCO –
NeoXCraft
2018
United
Kingdom
Electric 320 23204
Bell –
Nexus
2019
United
States
Hybrid,
Electric
288 42416
No. of
Rotors
Note: No. of seats may or may not include pilot
Hybrid,
Electric
FIGURE 2
Aerospace manufacturers, automobile companies, and technology start-ups
continue to announce new passenger eVTOL vehicles11
The infrastructure
necessary to enable
large-scale passenger and
cargo transportation in
urban and suburban areas
is not yet in place.
5
The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon?
Navigating the
disruption ahead
Though eVTOLs have yet to be deployed en
masse, a number of successful demonstrations have
taken place. This suggests that urban and suburban
mobility (inter- and intra-city) may be on the preci-
pice of significant disruption.
The emergence of eVTOLs could catalyze trans-
formation across many different areas, with these
being particularly pertinent:
•	 Air traffic management system: Developing
and deploying a new, complete air traffic manage-
ment system is expected to be key. This system
must span airspace allocation and management
as well as airworthiness certifications and pilot
requirements for unmanned autonomous aerial
systems. National governments would need to
work together as well as in conjunction with
local municipalities to settle upon a common
operating concept and establish a universal set
of requirements that would allow eVTOLs to be
widely deployed. This includes ensuring interop-
erability with existing air traffic management
systems globally.
•	 Physical infrastructure: Significant capital
would be required to acquire the land/space
necessary for building vertiports and other infra-
structure components. Extending existing types
of public/private partnerships or establishing
new models would be required to secure adequate
funding. Without this type of collaboration, in-
frastructure projects may not get off the ground,
thus delaying, limiting, or entirely blocking the
widescale deployment of eVTOLs.
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights
Source: Deloitte analysis.
Degreeofmaturityandpassenger
eVTOLdevelopmentprogress
2019-20 2020–2025 2025–2030 2030+
Passenger eVTOL manufacturers
likely to conduct prototype
testing, while cargo eVTOLs
expected to see
commercialization.
• Creators, operators, and
regulators to work together
to plan for the required
certifications, supporting
infrastructure, and a robust
traffic management system
First phase of commercialization
of passenger eVTOLs–likely to
be piloted vehicles
• Wide use of cargo eVTOLs to
pave the way for
commercialization of
passenger eVTOLs
• Basic infrastructure (such
as vertiports), unified traffic
management system, and
regulatory approvals
expected to be completed
• Advancement in technology
to make these vehicles safe
and reliable
Success of piloted vehicles
to result in autonomous
passenger eVTOLs as well
as greater adoption
• Greater social acceptance
subsequent to successful
flights of manned
passenger eVTOLs
• Production costs of passenger
eVTOLs likely to be much
lower due to economies
of scale and a decline in
battery costs
• Advanced battery technology
likely to increase the
vehicle range
FIGURE 3
Projected passenger eVTOL development timeline (2020–2030+)
6
Change is in the air
•	 Aircraft development: Current helicopter
developers and manufacturers (traditional
VTOLs) are at risk of being disrupted, with the
implications being similar to those incurred by
the automotive sector when new entrants used
electrification and autonomous capabilities to
re-envision the automobile. Parallels can also
be drawn with the taxi and rental car indus-
tries when technology companies used apps
and geo-location capabilities to reimagine ride-
sharing services. The future market for eVTOL
aircraft manufactures could be substantial. For
example, the estimated market size for the US
alone is approximately $17 billion by 204012
(figure 4).
Conclusion
The ecosystem for unmanned aerial transport
is vast, with aerospace manufacturers, ride share
companies, and technology startups all playing in
this space. While the opportunities are relevant to
all participants, the risks appear more pronounced
for traditional aerospace companies. Developments
in the eVTOL arena point to impending disruption
for helicopter manufacturers, who will likely need
to rethink their business models and how they
capture value. Shifting their focus to the evolving
markets for unmanned aerial transport may be an
option. At the least, they will need to re-examine
their product mixes; production rates; and people,
process, and technology requirements, as well as
where they should play in the value chain, so they are
well-positioned to survive and thrive if the eVTOL
market takes off as expected.
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from research and analyst reports.
US Passenger eVTOL Market Size (2025–2040)
(US$billion)
2025
$0
$3
$6
$9
$12
$15
$18
2030 2035 2040
• Intra-city passenger eVTOL market is expected to grow from nearly US$1 billion in 2025 to US$13.8
billion by 2040.
• Meanwhile, inter-city passenger eVTOL market is expected to grow from US$2.6 billion to US$3.9
billion during the same period.
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights
Exponential growth period
$3.4
$5.7
$6.8
$17.7
FIGURE 4
US passenger eVTOL market size could reach US$17.7 billion by 2040
7
The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon?
Endnotes
1.	 Curtiss Autoplane, “Their flying machines,” accessed January 3, 2018.
2.	 Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, Siddhant Mehra, and Derek M. Pankratz, Elevating the future of mobility, Deloitte
Insights, January 18, 2018.
3.	 Ibid.
4.	 Caitlin A. Baggott, “If we build it, they will come,” National Civic Review 98, pp. 30–33, DOI:  10.1002/ncr.262, 2009.
5.	 Robin Lineberger, Chris Metts and Aijaz Hussain, Managing the evolving skies, Deloitte, July 2018.
6.	 Robin Lineberger and Aijaz Hussain, Psychological barriers to the elevated future of mobility, Deloitte Insights,
November 26, 2018.
7.	 Ibid.
8.	 Ibid.
9.	 Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, Vincent Rutgers, and Tim Hanley, Technological barriers to the elevated future of
mobility, Deloitte Insights, April 2, 2019.
10.	 Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, and Vincent Rutgers, Infrastructure barriers to the elevated future of mobility,
Deloitte Insights, May 30, 2019.
11.	 Deloitte analysis based on: Pipistrell, “2nd UBER elevate summit,” https://www.pipistrel-aircraft.com/2nd-uber-el-
evate-summit/, accessed May 30, 2019; Airspace Experience Technologies, “Mobi-One,” https://www.iflyasx.com/
mobi-one, accessed May 30, 2019; Reuters, “Embraer sees 2024 commercial launch for Uber flying cabs,” Decem-
ber 15, 2017; Rolls Royce, “Blue sky thinking: Rolls-Royce unveils EVTOL concept at Farnborough Airshow,” https://
www.rolls-royce.com/media/our-stories/discover/2018/blue-sky-thinking-rr-unveils-evtol-concept-at-farnbor-
ough-airshow.aspx, accessed May 30, 2019; VRCO, https://vrco.co.uk/#Home, accessed May 30, 2019; Bell, “Ready
to fly to work?,” https://www.bellflight.com/company/innovation/fly-to-work, accessed May 30, 2019.
12.	 Deloitte analysis; Morgan Stanley, Flying cars: Investment implications of autonomous urban air mobility, December
02, 2018; Uber, “Fast-forwarding to a future of on-demand urban air transportation,” October 27, 2016.
8
Change is in the air
ROBIN LINEBERGER is the leader of Deloitte’s Aerospace & Defense (A&D) industry practice. His career
includes 30 years as a consultant to the aerospace and defense sector, having advised and served
companies globally. He was also the CEO of Deloitte’s Federal Government Services practice. Previously,
Lineberger was a commissioned officer in the US Air Force, where he led the software development and
testing for a major command and control platform. He serves on the USO Board of Governors and is very
active in supporting military veteran issues such as mentoring, employment, and medical recovery.
AIJAZ HUSSAIN is a senior manager and leads research for Deloitte US Aerospace and Defense, as well
as Chemicals and Specialty Materials. He has more than 17 years of experience in research, thoughtware
development, market/competitive intelligence, business strategy, and financial analysis. He is based in
Dallas. Connect with him on LinkedIn at www.linkedin.com/in/aijazshaikhussain/.
VINCENT RUTGERS is a partner with Deloitte Consulting Netherlands. He has been the global lead
client partner for Royal Philips since 2013, and leads the Industrial Products and Services sector in the
Netherlands, Northwest Europe and Europe, and the Middle East and Africa. Rutgers studied production
process optimization and initially worked for global manufacturing companies. For the past 25 years,
he has been working with major companies in the manufacturing, telecom, and utility sectors. Rutgers
joined Deloitte in 2012 and led Deloitte Digital in the Netherlands before focusing on Royal Philips.
About the authors
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Siddhant Mehra, Mimi Lee, Kristen Tatro, and Darlene Fiscus for their
contributions to this report.
9
The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon?
Contacts
Canada
Gerald Faustino
Partner, Aerospace & Defense specialist
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
+1 514 390 4566
gfaustino@deloitte.ca
China
Kevin Guo
Partner, ER&I industry leader
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Certified Public
Accountants LLP Beijing Branch
+86 10 85207379
kguo@deloitte.com.cn
France
Jean-Louis Rassineux
Partner
Deloitte Conseil, France
+33 1 55 61 57 00
jrassineux@deloitte.fr
India
Alaric Diniz
Director
Deloitte, India
+91 22 6185 51 17
adiniz@deloitte.com
Italy
Glanluca Di Cicco
Partner, national A&D leader
Deloitte Consulting SRL
+39 0647 805548
gdicicco@deloitte.it
Japan
Yuichiro Kirihara
Partner
Deloitte DTC
+81 8033 672805
ykirihara@tohmatsu.co.jp
The Netherlands
Vincent Rutgers
Partner
Deloitte Consulting B.V.
+31 8828 85894
vrutgers@deloitte.nl
The United Kingdom
Stacey Winters
Partner
Deloitte LLP
+44 20 7007 0275
stwinters@deloitte.co.uk
The United States
Robin Lineberger
Principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP  
US and Global Aerospace & Defense Leader
+1 571 882 7100  
rlineberger@deloitte.com
Deloitte provides industry-leading consulting, tax, advisory, and audit services to many of the world’s
most admired brands. Our people work across more than 20 industry sectors with one purpose: to
deliver measurable, lasting results. Deloitte offers a suite of services to help clients tackle Future of
Mobility–related challenges, including setting strategic direction, planning operating models, and
implementing new operations and capabilities. Our wide array of expertise allows us to become a
true partner throughout an organization’s comprehensive, multidimensional journey of transfor-
mation. Find out more on our website.
10
Change is in the air
Deloitte Insights contributors
Editorial: Sara Sikora
Creative: Mark Milward
Promotion: Maria Martin Cirujano
Cover artwork: Dieter Braun
Sign up for Deloitte Insights updates at www.deloitte.com/insights.
Follow @DeloitteInsight
About Deloitte Insights
Deloitte Insights publishes original articles, reports and periodicals that provide insights for businesses, the public sector and
NGOs. Our goal is to draw upon research and experience from throughout our professional services organization, and that of
coauthors in academia and business, to advance the conversation on a broad spectrum of topics of interest to executives and
government leaders.
Deloitte Insights is an imprint of Deloitte Development LLC.
About this publication
This publication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its
and their affiliates are, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other
profes¬sional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be
used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your finances or your business. Before making any decision or taking
any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser.
None of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their respective affiliates shall be responsible for any
loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication.
About Deloitte
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its
network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent
entities. DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients. In the United States, Deloitte refers to
one or more of the US member firms of DTTL, their related entities that operate using the “Deloitte” name in the United States
and their respective affiliates. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public
accounting. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms.
Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.

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The elevated future of mobility

  • 1. FEATURE Change is in the air The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon? Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, and Vincent Rutgers
  • 2. ​Hybrid-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles have the power to transform the air traffic ecosystem. Learn about the challenges aerial transport faces and how companies can take advantage of new opportunities. Introduction A century ago, aviation pioneer Glenn Curtiss debuted the autoplane, a three-seat car-cum-aircraft with removable wings.1 Ever since, automobile and aviation enthusiasts have dreamed of “flying cars” that can reduce trips that take hours on the ground to minutes in the air, improving productivity and quality of life. After decades of failed projects and false starts, a new class of vehicle is finally emerging that could to turn these dreams into reality by transforming the way people and cargo are moved in cities. To provide insight into this rapidly progressing space, Deloitte recently published a five-part series on the elevated future of mobility. The findings and implications are summarized in this article. Almost two years ago, Deloitte published Elevating the future of mobility, its initial view on a new class of aircraft that promises to revolutionize inter- and intra-city mobility.2 These aircraft, gen- erally known as electric or hybrid-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles, have the po- tential to improve the future of elevated mobility by moving people and cargo more quickly, quietly, and cost-effectively than traditional helicopters. In the initial paper, several challenges and/or barriers that would need to be overcome before seeing the whole- sale adoption of eVTOL aircraft were identified (see figure 1). In a series of articles, the barriers to an elevated future of mobility have been highlighted, with rec- ommended approaches provided for surmounting them. Through this process, we have come to view regulations as a subset of a holistic air traffic man- agement system. The safety of eVTOLs will depend on eVTOL vehicle maturity, ground infrastructure, and the air traffic management system. 2 Change is in the air
  • 3. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights Source: Deloitte analysis. Regulations Formulating the regulations for pilotless vehicles, airworthiness certifications and the need for a pilot’s license Air Traffic Management Creating a robust air traffic management system integrated with other modes of transport Safety Amassing a flawless operational and mechanical safety record Technology Maturity Implementing efficient energy management systems, onboard sensors, collision detections systems and advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence Infrastructure Constructing takeoff and landing zones, parking lots, charging stations and vertiports Psychological Barriers Psychological barriers related to flying in a fully autonomous aircraft FIGURE 1 Elevated future of mobility challenges The eVTOL evolution Much has happened in just the last two years in the eVTOL journey. To tell a complete and timely story, here is a summary highlighting the main find- ings of the five Deloitte articles published, updating them where appropriate:w 1. Elevating the future of mobility3 : Through the cumulative efforts of eVTOL manufacturers, operators, and other key stakeholders, elevated mobility will likely become a reality over the next decade. Despite challenges, manufac- turers have begun testing vehicles; ecosystem participants are collaborating on developing a robust regulatory framework; and technology is advancing swiftly. Deloitte’s initial review focused on the movement of people, but over the course of our research, it became apparent that the move- ment of cargo is just as important. In fact, it will likely drive the early adoption of eVTOL aircraft. Similarly, while the initial focus has been on the end goal of fully autonomous vehicles, this un- der-acknowledges the potential that early eVTOL vehicles will most likely be piloted in order to accelerate commercialization. Overall, there has been rapid progress in the last two years, with many stakeholders believing: “If you build it, they will come.”4 Overall, there has been rapid progress in the last two years, with many stakeholders believing: “If you build it, they will come.” 3 The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon?
  • 4. 2. Managing the evolving skies5 : As the skies get busier, it is expected to be an ongoing chal- lenge to manage and maintain an increasingly diverse airspace while keeping all air traffic moving safely and efficiently. A key enabler for the future of eVTOLs could be unmanned aircraft system traffic management (UTM), which would have to work in conjunction with existing air traffic management systems. This “system of systems” is complicated to es- tablish, but it is being pursued by a diverse group of stakeholders, including eVTOL operators, communication system service providers, data service providers, and regulatory authorities. Success depends upon all stakeholders having trust in the essential elements of the air traffic management system. This will require reliable and available communication, predictable and consistent navigation, and accessible, trusted surveillance. These elements, coupled with tried-and-tested procedures, coordinated teams, redundancy, and continuous training, will be mission-critical in enabling the system to operate reliably and safely. 3. Psychological barriers to the elevated future of mobility6 : Social acceptance, or over- coming the psychological barriers, are expected to play a major role in shaping the eVTOL industry, as consumers are at the core of the elevated mobility ecosystem. For this article, De- loitte questioned a global group of 10,000 consumers about their per- ception of fully autonomous eVTOL aircraft with respect to safety and perceived utility. Nearly half of the respondents viewed auton- omous aerial passenger vehicles as a potentially viable solution to roadway congestion.7 However, 80 percent of the total either believe that these vehicles “will not be safe” or are currently uncer- tain that they will be safe.8 eVTOL aircraft can become part of the new mobility ecosystem only when creators and operators convince skeptical consumers that airborne vehicles are both useful and safe. Shaping consumer attitudes will be the joint responsibility of regulators, creators, and operators of this new breed of aircraft. 4. Technological barriers to the elevated future of mobility9 : Several complex tech- nological issues need to be addressed before air taxis and cargo transports take to the skies. These persistent challenges are primarily related to propulsion, situational awareness systems, and advanced detection and collision avoidance systems. While onboard technology is maturing quickly, efficient energy management (including battery capacity, speed of recharging, and cost per kilowatt-hour) remains a limiting factor and is proving to be a difficult challenge to solve. It will likely take a group effort to eliminate the remaining technological barriers to urban air mobility. To strengthen collaboration within the ecosystem, participants should develop and work on an integrated framework— spanning manufacturing, operations, and certification—to advance technologies in- volved in eVTOL aircraft. This framework should provide a structure for encouraging collaboration within the ecosystem, harnessing electric propulsion technology through alliances and partnerships, leveraging advancements in ground autonomy, and investing in cognitive au- tomation capabilities. Social acceptance, or over-coming the psychological barriers, are expected play a major role in shaping the eVTOL industry. 4 Change is in the air
  • 5. 5. Infrastructure barriers to the elevated future of mobility10 : Although pilot projects are underway in major cities around the world, the infrastructure necessary to enable large-scale passenger and cargo transportation in urban and suburban areas is not yet in place. The missing pieces include the ground infrastructure (takeoff, landing, and service areas), a robust communi- cation and UTM system, and a seamless mobility operating system. To pave the way for widescale deployment, eVTOL operators and local author- ities (such as cities and municipalities) should start identifying feasible locations for com- ponents of the ground infrastructure, such as takeoff and landing, charging/refueling stations, parking facilities, maintenance, and contingency landing sites. They should also enlist the help of information technology providers, who can assist in building a well-connected infrastruc- ture, and regulatory authorities, who can assist in designing a policy and control framework that is robust, safe, and secure. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights Source: Deloitte analysis based on company websites and press releases. Pipistrel – eVTOL Concept Manufacturer – Vehicle Name 2017 Announcement Slovenia Country Electric Electric/ Gasoline Max. speed (km/h) n/a No. of seats 6 Max. range (km/h) n/an/a Airspace X – MOBi 2018 United States 240 44168 Embraer – DreamMaker 2018 Brazil Electric n/a 4n/a8 Rolls-Royce – EVTOL 2018 United Kingdom Hybrid, Electric 400 4-58006 VRCO – NeoXCraft 2018 United Kingdom Electric 320 23204 Bell – Nexus 2019 United States Hybrid, Electric 288 42416 No. of Rotors Note: No. of seats may or may not include pilot Hybrid, Electric FIGURE 2 Aerospace manufacturers, automobile companies, and technology start-ups continue to announce new passenger eVTOL vehicles11 The infrastructure necessary to enable large-scale passenger and cargo transportation in urban and suburban areas is not yet in place. 5 The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon?
  • 6. Navigating the disruption ahead Though eVTOLs have yet to be deployed en masse, a number of successful demonstrations have taken place. This suggests that urban and suburban mobility (inter- and intra-city) may be on the preci- pice of significant disruption. The emergence of eVTOLs could catalyze trans- formation across many different areas, with these being particularly pertinent: • Air traffic management system: Developing and deploying a new, complete air traffic manage- ment system is expected to be key. This system must span airspace allocation and management as well as airworthiness certifications and pilot requirements for unmanned autonomous aerial systems. National governments would need to work together as well as in conjunction with local municipalities to settle upon a common operating concept and establish a universal set of requirements that would allow eVTOLs to be widely deployed. This includes ensuring interop- erability with existing air traffic management systems globally. • Physical infrastructure: Significant capital would be required to acquire the land/space necessary for building vertiports and other infra- structure components. Extending existing types of public/private partnerships or establishing new models would be required to secure adequate funding. Without this type of collaboration, in- frastructure projects may not get off the ground, thus delaying, limiting, or entirely blocking the widescale deployment of eVTOLs. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights Source: Deloitte analysis. Degreeofmaturityandpassenger eVTOLdevelopmentprogress 2019-20 2020–2025 2025–2030 2030+ Passenger eVTOL manufacturers likely to conduct prototype testing, while cargo eVTOLs expected to see commercialization. • Creators, operators, and regulators to work together to plan for the required certifications, supporting infrastructure, and a robust traffic management system First phase of commercialization of passenger eVTOLs–likely to be piloted vehicles • Wide use of cargo eVTOLs to pave the way for commercialization of passenger eVTOLs • Basic infrastructure (such as vertiports), unified traffic management system, and regulatory approvals expected to be completed • Advancement in technology to make these vehicles safe and reliable Success of piloted vehicles to result in autonomous passenger eVTOLs as well as greater adoption • Greater social acceptance subsequent to successful flights of manned passenger eVTOLs • Production costs of passenger eVTOLs likely to be much lower due to economies of scale and a decline in battery costs • Advanced battery technology likely to increase the vehicle range FIGURE 3 Projected passenger eVTOL development timeline (2020–2030+) 6 Change is in the air
  • 7. • Aircraft development: Current helicopter developers and manufacturers (traditional VTOLs) are at risk of being disrupted, with the implications being similar to those incurred by the automotive sector when new entrants used electrification and autonomous capabilities to re-envision the automobile. Parallels can also be drawn with the taxi and rental car indus- tries when technology companies used apps and geo-location capabilities to reimagine ride- sharing services. The future market for eVTOL aircraft manufactures could be substantial. For example, the estimated market size for the US alone is approximately $17 billion by 204012 (figure 4). Conclusion The ecosystem for unmanned aerial transport is vast, with aerospace manufacturers, ride share companies, and technology startups all playing in this space. While the opportunities are relevant to all participants, the risks appear more pronounced for traditional aerospace companies. Developments in the eVTOL arena point to impending disruption for helicopter manufacturers, who will likely need to rethink their business models and how they capture value. Shifting their focus to the evolving markets for unmanned aerial transport may be an option. At the least, they will need to re-examine their product mixes; production rates; and people, process, and technology requirements, as well as where they should play in the value chain, so they are well-positioned to survive and thrive if the eVTOL market takes off as expected. Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from research and analyst reports. US Passenger eVTOL Market Size (2025–2040) (US$billion) 2025 $0 $3 $6 $9 $12 $15 $18 2030 2035 2040 • Intra-city passenger eVTOL market is expected to grow from nearly US$1 billion in 2025 to US$13.8 billion by 2040. • Meanwhile, inter-city passenger eVTOL market is expected to grow from US$2.6 billion to US$3.9 billion during the same period. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights Exponential growth period $3.4 $5.7 $6.8 $17.7 FIGURE 4 US passenger eVTOL market size could reach US$17.7 billion by 2040 7 The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon?
  • 8. Endnotes 1. Curtiss Autoplane, “Their flying machines,” accessed January 3, 2018. 2. Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, Siddhant Mehra, and Derek M. Pankratz, Elevating the future of mobility, Deloitte Insights, January 18, 2018. 3. Ibid. 4. Caitlin A. Baggott, “If we build it, they will come,” National Civic Review 98, pp. 30–33, DOI: 10.1002/ncr.262, 2009. 5. Robin Lineberger, Chris Metts and Aijaz Hussain, Managing the evolving skies, Deloitte, July 2018. 6. Robin Lineberger and Aijaz Hussain, Psychological barriers to the elevated future of mobility, Deloitte Insights, November 26, 2018. 7. Ibid. 8. Ibid. 9. Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, Vincent Rutgers, and Tim Hanley, Technological barriers to the elevated future of mobility, Deloitte Insights, April 2, 2019. 10. Robin Lineberger, Aijaz Hussain, and Vincent Rutgers, Infrastructure barriers to the elevated future of mobility, Deloitte Insights, May 30, 2019. 11. Deloitte analysis based on: Pipistrell, “2nd UBER elevate summit,” https://www.pipistrel-aircraft.com/2nd-uber-el- evate-summit/, accessed May 30, 2019; Airspace Experience Technologies, “Mobi-One,” https://www.iflyasx.com/ mobi-one, accessed May 30, 2019; Reuters, “Embraer sees 2024 commercial launch for Uber flying cabs,” Decem- ber 15, 2017; Rolls Royce, “Blue sky thinking: Rolls-Royce unveils EVTOL concept at Farnborough Airshow,” https:// www.rolls-royce.com/media/our-stories/discover/2018/blue-sky-thinking-rr-unveils-evtol-concept-at-farnbor- ough-airshow.aspx, accessed May 30, 2019; VRCO, https://vrco.co.uk/#Home, accessed May 30, 2019; Bell, “Ready to fly to work?,” https://www.bellflight.com/company/innovation/fly-to-work, accessed May 30, 2019. 12. Deloitte analysis; Morgan Stanley, Flying cars: Investment implications of autonomous urban air mobility, December 02, 2018; Uber, “Fast-forwarding to a future of on-demand urban air transportation,” October 27, 2016. 8 Change is in the air
  • 9. ROBIN LINEBERGER is the leader of Deloitte’s Aerospace & Defense (A&D) industry practice. His career includes 30 years as a consultant to the aerospace and defense sector, having advised and served companies globally. He was also the CEO of Deloitte’s Federal Government Services practice. Previously, Lineberger was a commissioned officer in the US Air Force, where he led the software development and testing for a major command and control platform. He serves on the USO Board of Governors and is very active in supporting military veteran issues such as mentoring, employment, and medical recovery. AIJAZ HUSSAIN is a senior manager and leads research for Deloitte US Aerospace and Defense, as well as Chemicals and Specialty Materials. He has more than 17 years of experience in research, thoughtware development, market/competitive intelligence, business strategy, and financial analysis. He is based in Dallas. Connect with him on LinkedIn at www.linkedin.com/in/aijazshaikhussain/. VINCENT RUTGERS is a partner with Deloitte Consulting Netherlands. He has been the global lead client partner for Royal Philips since 2013, and leads the Industrial Products and Services sector in the Netherlands, Northwest Europe and Europe, and the Middle East and Africa. Rutgers studied production process optimization and initially worked for global manufacturing companies. For the past 25 years, he has been working with major companies in the manufacturing, telecom, and utility sectors. Rutgers joined Deloitte in 2012 and led Deloitte Digital in the Netherlands before focusing on Royal Philips. About the authors Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Siddhant Mehra, Mimi Lee, Kristen Tatro, and Darlene Fiscus for their contributions to this report. 9 The elevated future of mobility: What’s next on the horizon?
  • 10. Contacts Canada Gerald Faustino Partner, Aerospace & Defense specialist Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited +1 514 390 4566 gfaustino@deloitte.ca China Kevin Guo Partner, ER&I industry leader Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Certified Public Accountants LLP Beijing Branch +86 10 85207379 kguo@deloitte.com.cn France Jean-Louis Rassineux Partner Deloitte Conseil, France +33 1 55 61 57 00 jrassineux@deloitte.fr India Alaric Diniz Director Deloitte, India +91 22 6185 51 17 adiniz@deloitte.com Italy Glanluca Di Cicco Partner, national A&D leader Deloitte Consulting SRL +39 0647 805548 gdicicco@deloitte.it Japan Yuichiro Kirihara Partner Deloitte DTC +81 8033 672805 ykirihara@tohmatsu.co.jp The Netherlands Vincent Rutgers Partner Deloitte Consulting B.V. +31 8828 85894 vrutgers@deloitte.nl The United Kingdom Stacey Winters Partner Deloitte LLP +44 20 7007 0275 stwinters@deloitte.co.uk The United States Robin Lineberger Principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP US and Global Aerospace & Defense Leader +1 571 882 7100 rlineberger@deloitte.com Deloitte provides industry-leading consulting, tax, advisory, and audit services to many of the world’s most admired brands. Our people work across more than 20 industry sectors with one purpose: to deliver measurable, lasting results. Deloitte offers a suite of services to help clients tackle Future of Mobility–related challenges, including setting strategic direction, planning operating models, and implementing new operations and capabilities. Our wide array of expertise allows us to become a true partner throughout an organization’s comprehensive, multidimensional journey of transfor- mation. Find out more on our website. 10 Change is in the air
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  • 12. Deloitte Insights contributors Editorial: Sara Sikora Creative: Mark Milward Promotion: Maria Martin Cirujano Cover artwork: Dieter Braun Sign up for Deloitte Insights updates at www.deloitte.com/insights. Follow @DeloitteInsight About Deloitte Insights Deloitte Insights publishes original articles, reports and periodicals that provide insights for businesses, the public sector and NGOs. Our goal is to draw upon research and experience from throughout our professional services organization, and that of coauthors in academia and business, to advance the conversation on a broad spectrum of topics of interest to executives and government leaders. Deloitte Insights is an imprint of Deloitte Development LLC. About this publication This publication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their affiliates are, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other profes¬sional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your finances or your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. None of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their respective affiliates shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication. About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients. In the United States, Deloitte refers to one or more of the US member firms of DTTL, their related entities that operate using the “Deloitte” name in the United States and their respective affiliates. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms. Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.