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Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Biotrade 2020+

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Presentación realizada por David Sanchez de CENER y Leire Iriarte de IINAS, en el 10º Congreso Internacional de Bioenergía "Retos de la biomasa hacia 2020" (2015)

Acceso al vídeo en el canal de AVEBIOM en youtube en este link https://youtu.be/tybsf4Xgfe0?list=PLiI9QXKYMxh06h-WnlG7007bUkwPg6sKV

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Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Biotrade 2020+

  1. 1. Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ Leire Iriarte, IINAS David Sánchez, CENER With the contribution of other project partners, especially: Martin Junginger & Thuy Mai-Moulin, Utrecht University(Utrecht, The Netherlands), and Rocio A. Diaz-Chavez Imperial College (London, UK)
  2. 2. Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ Objective: BioTrade2020plus aims at providing guidelines for the development of a European Bioenergy Trade Strategy that ensures that imported bio-resources are sustainably sourced and used in an efficient way, while avoiding distortion of other (non-energy) markets. In the future, probably more biomass also from other region of the word – biomass had a 64 % share of all renewable energy consumption in the EU-27 (2012) • heating and cooling sector (73%), followed by transport (15%) and electricity (12%) – reinforced by other (non-energy) sectors that use biomass as renewable feedstock •  bio-industries but sustainable biomass 2
  3. 3. 3 Outputs: •Definition and application of sustainability criteria and indicators and Analysis of the main economic and market related factors affecting biomass/bioenergy imports to the EU •Assessment of sustainable potentials of lignocellulosic biomass in the main sourcing regions outside the EU •Development of a dedicated and user friendly web-based GIS-tool •Efficient and active engagement and involvement of stakeholders •WG1: Biomass importers and end-users •WG2: Biomass producers and exporters •WG3: Long-term strategies and support frameworks Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+
  4. 4. 4 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ Assessing Sustainable Bioenergy Import Chains Note: From Step 3 onwards, potentials are subject to scenario conditions (BAU…) Main equations: (3) = (2) – unsustainable biomass (4) = (3) * market potential (semiquantitative analysis) (6) = (4) – (5)
  5. 5. 5 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ Scenarios Current (2010/ 2012 and 2014/2015) BAU “Optimistic” Timeline 2020 2030 2020 2030 Aim Anticipate possible changes in local & global biomass markets & trade at different time scales Method Based on : -Socio-economic development -Policies on environment, climate, energy and industrial promotion -Innovative pre-treatment technologies Data - International & national databases (FAOSTAT, national statistics) - Communication with local & international stakeholders Expected outcomes Data for “Current” plus BAU and Optimistic Scenarios for 2020 and 2030 Scenario approach
  6. 6. 6 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ Aim Determine the most promising exporting countries to the EU-28 , and respective lignocellulosic feedstocks to be exported from each country Method in consultation with experts and based on : -National production in agriculture and forestry sectors -Biomass trade patterns -Political situation -Data availability Data - International & national databases (e.g. FAOSTAT, national statistics) - Communication with local experts - Other projects and reports Expected outcomes - Database for the selected indicators - Final selection of the case studies (1) Selection of case studies (I)
  7. 7. 7 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (1) Selection of case studies (II) Feedstock scope: Forest residues Agricultural residues Energy crops (lignocellulosic + woody)
  8. 8. 8 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (1) Selection of case studies (2) Technical potential (3) Sustainable Potential (2) Technical potential
  9. 9. 9 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (3) Sustainable potential 3a. Sustainable potentials for basic/advanced criteria 3b. Industrial development capacity Aim Determine sustainable potential for basic (EU RED) and advanced economic, environmental, social and institutional criteria Determine sustainable potential considering the industrial development capacity Method Same as for Step 2 + reducing thechnical potentials through application of sustainability indicators (GIS and LCA) Project sustainable industrial capacity in 2020 + 2030, taking into account past developments and new technologies for BAU and optimistic scenarios Data Same as for Step 2, plus literature review Past developments of industrial capacity for feedstocks + projected developments, incl. demand for other uses Expected outcomes Aggregated sustainable potential (PJ) by country and feedstock 2020 + 2030, considering basic/advanced sustainability Establish potential sustainable industrial capacity for each type of feedstock for 2020 and 2030 (PJ) (2) Technical potential (3) Sustainable Potential (4) Market Potential (3a) Basic/advanced sust. criteria (3b) Industrial development capacity
  10. 10. 10 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ How to translate technical potentials into sust. potentials? Indicators to be included depending on the sustainability set (basic vs. advanced) e.g. constraints on biodiversity: “no-go” areas and sustainable management on go áreas. This would result in the sustainable potential regardless the end-use (bioenergy or other uses) and the consumption place (producing country or exported to EU) For the evaluation of some indicators such as GHG emission savings or indicators related to employment and labor conditions the results of the value chain up to ARA has to be considered. The key question is whether the thresholds established for any bioenergy carrier to be sustainable should apply as well to other end- uses and the sourcing regions, that is for these bioenergy carriers to be considered sustainable when consumed in sourcing regions. From Technical Potentials to Sustainable Potentials.
  11. 11. 11 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (4) Market potential Aim Determine the total market potential of a given feedstock in any country. Market potential is meant as the (market) conditions under which sustainable potentials could be mobilized. Method Qualitative argumentation on current market situation and future demands Data - Current use of feedstocks and characterization - Expected domestic demand - Policies (and its stability) in third countries (e.g. EU-28 or EU MS) Expected outcomes Aggregated market potential (PJ) by country and feedstock for base year (2010 or 2012) + 2020 and 2030 (3) Sustainable Potential (6) Sustainable Feedstock Surplus (4) Market Potential (5) Domestic Demand
  12. 12. 12 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (5) Domestic demand Aim Understand demand of lignocellulosic feedstocks for energy & various uses at sourcing countries: - Traditional non-energy uses - Traditional energy uses - New biomass applications Method in consultation with expert opinion and based on: -Socio-economic development (living standards, GDP…) -Policies in energy, environment & climate Data - International & national databases (e.g. FAOSTAT, national statistics) - Communication with local experts - Results from other projects/studies Expected outcomes Domestic demand for all uses (energy and non-energy uses, new biomass applications) for 2020 and 2030 (6) Sustainable Feedstock Surplus (5) Domestic Demand (4) Market Potential
  13. 13. 13 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (6) Sustainable feedstock surplus (6) Sustainable Feedstock Surplus (5) Domestic Demand (4) Market Potential (8) Net sustainable potential to be exported to EU-28 (7) Global Demand- Supply Aim Identify surplus of sustainable feedstock potential Method (6)= (4)-(5) Data Same as for (4) and (5) Expected outcomes Inventory of feedstock surplus in scenarios
  14. 14. 14 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (7) Global demand & supply Aim Understand biomass demand and supply flow at global level Method Consult external sources & data: -IEA World Energy Outlook -IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (2014) -Global demand by model estimation Data - IEA World Energy Outlook + ETP studies - Eurostat, FAOSTAT - Related reports Expected outcomes - Overview of global demand & supply of biomass for different time frames - Outline of EU position in global biomass trade map (6) Sustainable Feedstock Surplus (8) Net sustainable potential to be exported to EU-28 (7) Global Demand- Supply
  15. 15. 15 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (8) Net sustainable potential for exports to EU28 (6) Sustainable Feedstock Surplus (8) Net sustainable potential to be exported to EU-28 (7) Global Demand- Supply (9) Bioenergy carriers and transport route
  16. 16. 16 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (9) Biomass carriers + transport route (8) Net sustainable potential to be exported to EU-28 (9) Bioenergy carriers and transport route (10) Demand- Supply Cost Curve and GHG balances (9c) Transport Route
  17. 17. 17 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ (10) Supply & demand cost curve + GHG balances of bioenergy imports (9) Bioenergy carriers and transport route (10) Demand- Supply Cost Curve and GHG balances (10a) Demand- Supply Cost Curve (10b) GHG balances (10a) Demand-Supply Cost Curve (10b) Determine GHG emissions Aim Estimate total cost of biomass in the supply chains Combine with supply over time to create cost-supply curves Determine GHG emissions in whole supply chain Method Use cost balance equation Use GHG emissions equation in RED Annex V + C stock change/iLUC Data - Cost in the different stages of biomass supply chains - Cost drivers in different scenarios - Emissions in different processes - Literature reviews and external sources Expected outcomes Cost of biomass supply over time Options to reduce GHG emissions & amount of importable solid bioenergy
  18. 18. 18 Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+ Online tool
  19. 19. Metodología para la determinación del potencial de biomasa sostenible: Proyecto Biotrade 2020+19 Thank you :: Gracias • Leire Iriarte / David Sánchez • IINAS/CENER • li@iinas.org & dsanchez@cener.com • www.biotrade2020plus.eu

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