Tech innovation s4_push_pull

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Analyze the dynamics of innovation and diffusion based technological changes. Technology push vs market pull

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Tech innovation s4_push_pull

  1. 1. Technology and InnovationManagement:S4Technological ProcessRaj C Thiagarajan, PhDToSIBM SIII MBA Students ATOA Scientific Technologies Engineering Simulation For Innovation
  2. 2. Process of Technological Change• Technology Push• Market Pull• Technology Trend Forecasting• Dynamics of Technological Innovation• Dynamics of Market Diffusion ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 2
  3. 3. Technology Push ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 3
  4. 4. Technology Push• Technology driven product development• Technologies are developed first and then clients• The technology competency of firm leveraged for market exploitation.• Solution in search of a problem• Risk: Not finding the market, Large Capital ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 4
  5. 5. Synthetic Dye:1856• 1853: Willam Perkin• Technology state: Atomic Theory, Elements• Hypothesis of Quinine for malaria treatment• Discovered : Aniline from coal tar + potassium dichromate = Synthetic purple dye• At that time mostly natural dye was used. The textile industry was slow to adpat.• The penetration of synthetic dye marked the beginning of the synthetic dye industry, which was the first modern chemical industry.• Structural Color… ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 5
  6. 6. Technology push Examples• Synthetic dye• Penicillin• Nylon• Teflon• Post-it• Magnetic Tapes• Walkman• Botox• IPad ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 6
  7. 7. Market Pull ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 7
  8. 8. Market Pull• Market Research Driven product development• Market potential is sought first before technology development.• Client requirements are captured first and then product• Problem in need of a Solution• Risk: loosing out on a downturn, Competition ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 8
  9. 9. Market Pull: Refrigeration• Preservation of food was one of the first problem• Traditional: drying, salting, acid pickling…• Lower the temperature to slow the bacteria growth• 1748 Vapor compression refrigerator, diethyl ether• Need: Safe non toxic nonflammable Refrigerant• 1930 Thomas Midgley Jr invented Freon• Dominated the Refrigeration industry• Now non CFC, Superinsulation ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 9
  10. 10. Market Pull• Freon• Vulcanized rubber• Celluloid• Aspirin• Incandescent lamp• Chlorination of water• Kevlar• Automobile• Ecommerce• Itunes ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 10
  11. 11. Push vs Pull Find MarketPull:• Market pull Synthetic Dye, 1856 High Penicillin, 1928• What is needed? Teflon, 1978• Practicality Post-It, 1978 Find Technology Technology Push• Looking for Technology Vulcanized Rubber 1839Push Freon, 1928• Technology push Sulfa Drug, 1930 Taxol, 1964• What is possible Kevlar, 1970• Curiosity Low• Looking for market Low Market Pull High ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 11
  12. 12. Successful management• Successful value creation• Managing invention for the market successes• Market driven Technology development• Technology management is to develop the most efficient design solution to fulfill a market need ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 12
  13. 13. Step by Step Process Cus Input from Input Customer Tech from Requirements Assessment Market Research Tech Market Competency Need• Push pull Need and Competency management correlation process Prioritization of market need and Technology capability Product Development and commercialization ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 13
  14. 14. Technology Evolution• Penetration of Technological devices into American Consumers• Pattern• Rate ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 14
  15. 15. Technology Evolution• Business vs Technology cycle• Technological change – Random and spontaneous process – Systematic and planned process• Dynamics of Technological change – S-curve – Technology Progression – Levels of Technology development – Technology change agents – Evolutionary characteristics – Uncertainty and insularity ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 15
  16. 16. Technology Evolution• Stable performance Maturity Decline Characteristics Slow Growth Characteristics• S-curve of evolution Rapid Growth• 4 stages Emergence• Product Evolution – Exploration or discovery or Time invention or concept Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 – Development stage – Commercialization – Monitor and control ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 16
  17. 17. Technology Progression Tech2• Learning or Technical Limit adaptation process Tech1 Characteristics• Limited by Technology or market.• Obsolete• Insularity Time Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4• Progression ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 17
  18. 18. Fields of InnovationTechnological innovation Product• Product Innovation• ProcessNon Technological innovation Process Strategic Organizati onal Innovation Innovation• Organizational Innovation• Market• Strategic Market Innovation 18 ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management
  19. 19. Type of innovation outputs Orgn. Knowledge Requirement• Incremental – Minor change Revolutionary – Aligned Evolutionary• Modular Modular – Significant change Incremental• Evolutionary – Novel change Technological Change• Revolutionary – Breakthrough change – New to the Orgn. ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 19
  20. 20. Technology Diffusion• Diffusion of technology is the process by which technology is communicated among and adopted by the members of a social system.• Elements – Technology, innovation, product – Propagation Channel – Time – Social System ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 20
  21. 21. Dynamics of diffusion• S-curve of Diffusion Saturated Adoption Cumulative Adoption• 4 stages No of Customer Slow Adoption Declining Market Accelerated• Mechanism of Adoption diffusion Few Early• Technology Adaption Frequency of Adoption substitution Time• Tipping point Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 21
  22. 22. Social System: AdaptorsINNOVATORS:• venturesome and educated, take risks, They appreciate technologyEARLY ADOPTERS• Social leaders, popular and educated. Visionary new technology adopters LateEARLY MAJORITY %of Customer Early majority majority (34%)• evolutionary changes, prime movers of (34%) rapid growth. Early Adopters LaggardsLATE MAJORITY (13.5%) (16%)• Skeptical and traditional , price sensitive and total solution. InnovatorsLAGGARDS (2.5%)• Technology skeptics, maintain the status quo. Time ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 22
  23. 23. Five Stages of Adoption modelAwareness 1 Awareness • Exposed but lack information •How •KnowledgeAttitude 2 Attitude • Seeks information and makes an opinion •Favorable •UnfavorableDecision 3 Decision • Weighs the benefits or drawbacks •Adopt • Critical stage: Decides to adopt or reject •Reject 4 ImplementationImplementation •Put to use • Deployment •Purchase • Evaluates the usefulness 5 ConfirmConfirm •Reinforcement • Final decision to continue to use or reject. •Rejection ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management
  24. 24. Adoption model1 Awareness 2 Attitude 3 Decision 4 Implementation 5.Confirm•How •Favorable •Adopt •Put to use •Reinforcement•Knowledge •Unfavorable •Reject •Purchase •Rejection• Technology and market diffusion Market penetration Technology development ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management
  25. 25. Diffusion of innovation model From: Rogers, E.M. (1995). Diffusion of innovations (4th edition). The Free Press. New York. ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 25
  26. 26. Innovation diffusion Trends• Communication Technologies adoption in USA Subscribers per 100 persons 60• Mobile subscription 50 Urban subscribers adoption in India 40 30 20 10 Rural subscribers 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* Source: Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of India ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 26
  27. 27. Trend Prediction• Future Forecasting• Short term Historical Forecasting Growth Data Model Prediction• Long-term Historical Forecasting Growth Data Model Prediction Future data Correlation ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management
  28. 28. Predictive models• The Technology evolution and innovation diffusion follows a S-curve trend.• Predictive Models: Bass, Compertz, Fisher –Pry… where• General form f(e –g(t)) F(t) is the cumulative fraction of adopters f(t) is the rate of diffusion at time t p is the innovation factor q is the imitation factor ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 28
  29. 29. Push Pull + S Curve• Market driven Barrier Technology Market• Industrial Research Driven Barrier Technology Market• Basic Research Overcome the Technology and driven market roadblocks for Barrier breakthroughs Technology Market ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management 29

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