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Reliably Solving Intractable Problems

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Reliably Solving Intractable Problems

  1. 1. ASQ RD Webinar Series: Reliably Solving Intractable Problems by Ivan M. Rosenberg ASQ Reliability Division English Language Webinar Series ©2014 ASQ & Presentation ©2014 Ivan M. Rosenberg,
  2. 2. Webinar Series • Next Sessions English series Thursday, May 8, 2014 TOPIC: Root Cause Analysis – Apollo Method BY: Kevin Stewart Thursday, June 12, 2014 TOPIC: Thermodynamic Reliability BY: Dr. Alec Feinberg Chinese Series TBD Spanish Series TBD
  3. 3. WCQI 2014
  4. 4. 2014 Workshop on Accelerated Stress Testing & Reliability CALL FOR PAPERS SUBMIT YOUR ABSTRACT TODAY! Submit online at ieee-astr.org DEADLINE 30 APRIL 2014! “Delivering assured product reliability in today's economy” September 10-12, 2014 (St. Paul, MN) $500 Best Paper Award Offered! We invite presentations on the following topics: * Reliability in Design * Accelerated testing for design improvement * Integration of design modeling, analysis and accelerated testing * Accelerated testing within a lean culture * Accelerated testing of complex, safety-critical systems * Accelerated testing for aging systems* Highly Accelerated Life Testing / Highly Accelerated Limit Testing (HALT) Please provide abstracts of no more than 300 words, describing your work, its value, context and relevance to the ASTR theme and topics.
  5. 5. Announcements We are looking volunteers to support the following programs: Webinars Social Media activists The Reliability Calendar Websites And other programs Discussion groups (ASQ forums & Linkedin) We invite you to join our ranks as a member visit www.ASQ.ORG/membership Questions, comments, suggestions, or desire to volunteer or presenter, please contact: chair@asqrd.org
  6. 6. Brought to you in part by…
  7. 7. Today’s Speakers IVAN M. ROSENBERG, the President and CEO of Frontier Associates, Inc., has over 30 years experience as a management consultant and change agent. He supports leaders who are committed to achieving breakthrough results in organizational performance, such as sales, efficiency, and profitability results far beyond what might be predictable by past performance (300% improvements are not uncommon). His engagements have included breakthrough problem solving, strategic planning, conflict resolution, executive coaching, and helping to create organization cultures that support change initiatives and mergers.
  8. 8. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 8 Reliably Solving Intractable Problems Ivan M. Rosenberg Frontier Associates, Inc. Valley Village, California April 10, 2014
  9. 9. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 9 The world that we have made as a result of the level of thinking we have done thus far creates problems that we cannot solve at the same level at which we created them. - Albert Einstein
  10. 10. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 10 Problems – What are they? What makes something a “problem”?  Something that is not going according to plan…  An interruption…  An obstacle… They are all interpretations Something doesn’t match the picture in my head about the way it “should” be – and therefore, there is something wrong…with me, them, or “it”
  11. 11. Change of Terms “Problems” => “Obstacles” Solving Intractable Problems => Producing Breakthroughs (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 11
  12. 12. (c) 2008 Frontier Associates, Inc. 12 Past Results After 38% budget cut, in 17 hours produced Starlight Mission design that was better than the original. In 6 months reduced hospital six month deficit from projected $13M to $2.3M In 5 months reduced medical claims processing time from max of 35 days to max of 10 days
  13. 13. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 13 Reliably Producing Breakthroughs Eight Principles for Producing Breakthroughs Outline of the Conversation Resources and Next Steps
  14. 14. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 14 Reliably Producing Breakthroughs Eight Principles for Producing Breakthroughs Outline of the Conversation Resources and Next Steps
  15. 15. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 15 Two Phases to Resolving an Obstacle 1. Figure Out How to Resolve Obstacle: Develop one or more feasible solution methods and select one or more. 2. Resolve the Obstacle: Execute selected solution methods until the solution is realized. This is the issue for breakthroughs
  16. 16. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 16 Convergent vs. Divergent Obstacles Convergent Obstacles: as you study them they get simpler to resolve. Divergent Obstacles: as you study them they get more complex and more difficult to resolve.
  17. 17. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 17 Convergent vs. Divergent Obstacles We have been taught to approach ALL problems as if they were convergent, and thus we always study every problem first. For divergent problems, studying and analysis only makes the problem worse. Divergent problems, i.e., those that require a breakthrough, require a different process.
  18. 18. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 18 Convergent Obstacles Paradigms (The Box) X Solution
  19. 19. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 19 Divergent Obstacles Paradigms (The Box) X Solution
  20. 20. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 20 First Principle Apply the method appropriate to the type of obstacle you are facing.  Don’t apply convergent methods to divergent obstacles.
  21. 21. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 21 Process for Producing Breakthroughs The Truth (A Paradigm) Occurs as Fact a truth (An Assumption) Other Assumptions A Solution (A Breakthrough)
  22. 22. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 22 Second Principle Generate a paradigm shift by distinguishing facts from assumptions (interpretations, opinions).
  23. 23. Typical Approach to Solving Problems (From Present) (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 23 Obstacle Solutions Revised Goal Original Goal
  24. 24. Proposed Approach to Resolving Obstacles (From Future) 24(c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. GoalObstacle
  25. 25. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 25 Third Principle All participants agree on Success Criteria (the real Goal) expressed in objective, measurable terms.
  26. 26. Proposed Approach to Resolving Obstacles (From Future) 26(c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. Commitment GoalObstacle
  27. 27. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 27 Actions, Goals, and Commitments An action is a movement, something that is happening A goal is a condition that someone intends to be true by a specific time in the future A commitment is a state of being emotionally impelled
  28. 28. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 28 Fourth Principle Start with a Commitment for which the group has an unquenchable passion.
  29. 29. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 29 The Fundamental Human Commitment To survive  Physically  After death, to leave a legacy “To make a difference with my life.”
  30. 30. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 30 The Purpose of Organizations The one and only purpose of an organization is to give people the opportunity to experience making a bigger difference than they could as individuals. The difference an organization was created to make is called its vision.
  31. 31. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 31 Organizational Visions A world in which all children have a safe, loving and permanent family. A world of good health and nutrition for all. Building a world where young people reject tobacco, and anyone can quit. A safe and clean environment for all generations. A world in which space enhances the human experience for all.
  32. 32. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 32 Example Commitments for the Breakthrough Process Forward the search for life elsewhere. Everyone who works here experiences being fully appreciated. Produce a breakthrough in cost and schedule for the company’s projects. It’s the right thing to do.
  33. 33. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 33 It’s Only a Flesh Wound
  34. 34. Proposed Approach to Resolving Obstacles (From Future) 34(c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. Commitment GoalObstacle Breakthrough
  35. 35. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 35 Fifth Principle Separate creative thinking from feasibility analysis.  Work from the future (the Goal) backwards  Ask “How did we do it?”  Any answer is OK. Does not have to be feasible (it’s good if some are clearly not).
  36. 36. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 36 Participants Typically, managers meet to solve problems. Even if they produce a breakthrough idea, it lacks buy-in and ownership by those who typically have to implement the idea.
  37. 37. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 37 Sixth Principle Involve all stakeholders in the obstacle resolution process.
  38. 38. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 38 Group Decision-Making Methods groups typically use for making decisions:  Majority vote  Last man standing  Autocratic  Compromise  Other
  39. 39. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 39 Seventh Principle for Producing Breakthroughs Use consensus for group decision- making.
  40. 40. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 40 Requirements to Use Consensus Participants prefer a solution to the status-quo Owner trusts the group to come up with a better solution Group gains experience with consensus Skilled, neutral facilitator
  41. 41. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 41 Eighth Principle Anticipate what could go wrong. In advance: What might prevent people from keeping their promises? Follow-up: How to know if promise was kept or not, and what to do as a result?
  42. 42. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 42 Eight Principles for Producing Breakthroughs 1. Use divergent problem-solving methods 2. Generate paradigm shifts by distinguishing facts from assumptions 3. Agree on the real Success Criteria 4. Start with a Commitment for which the group has an unquenchable passion 5. Separate creative thinking from analysis - work backwards from the future 6. Involve all stakeholders 7. Use consensus for decision-making 8. Anticipate what could go wrong.
  43. 43. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 43 Conversation for Resolving Obstacles Eight Principles for Producing Breakthroughs Outline of the Conversation Resources and Next Steps
  44. 44. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 44 Characteristics of the Conversation 13 specific clear steps. Typical Total Meeting Times: 30 min (easy) to 20 hours (tough). No special attributes needed to facilitate, but does require training. Highly reliable (>95% success). Makes intuitive sense to most people. Participants do not have to understand the process.
  45. 45. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 45 The Process Phase 1: Establish Foundation for the Process Phase 2: Get into the Future Phase 3: Establish a Solution from the Future Phase 4: Support the Solution
  46. 46. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 46 Phase 1: Establish Foundation 1. Briefly Specify the Situation 2. Validate there is an Obstacle 3. Establish Process Guidelines 4. Establish Success Criteria for the Process
  47. 47. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 47 Phase 2: Get into the Future 5. List Interpretations 6. List Facts 7. Create a Commitment
  48. 48. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 48 Phase 3: Establish a Solution 8. Create Possible Solutions 9. Analyze Feasibility 10.Establish Promises for Actions and Accountability
  49. 49. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 49 Phase 4: Support the Solution 11. Resolve Potential Obstacles to Promises 12. Establish Follow-Up Mechanism • If Promises Kept • If Promises Not Kept 13. Acknowledge and Appreciate
  50. 50. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 50 The Process Phase 1: Establish Foundation for the Process Phase 2: Get into the Future Phase 3: Establish a Solution from the Future Phase 4: Support the Solution
  51. 51. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 51 Very Briefly (1 or 2 sentences) Avoid adding “assumptions” or speaking in a controversial manner Tips: 1. Briefly Specify Situation
  52. 52. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 52 No observers – all participants must have an interest in the obstacle being resolved (problem being solved). Insure that all participants don’t want the predictable future and/or the future to be like the present. Tips: 2. Validate There Is An Obstacle
  53. 53. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 53 Very briefly, not a big deal. Use consensus for decision-making End: When is consensus on guidelines. Tips: 3. Establish Process Guidelines
  54. 54. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 54 “If this problem were successfully resolved, what would be the characteristics of the solution?” Specific, objective, measurable and in time. These criteria are used during the Analysis of Feasibility step. End: When there is consensus on a set of criteria. Tips: 4. Establish Success Criteria
  55. 55. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 55 The Process Phase 1: Establish Foundation for the Process Phase 2: Get into the Future Phase 3: Establish a Solution from the Future Phase 4: Support the Solution
  56. 56. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 56 Attitudes, beliefs, feelings, opinions. Anything anyone says is OK. No discussion. In headline form (5-10 words). End: When there is nothing more to be added. Tips: 5. List Interpretations
  57. 57. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 57 Criteria to be a Fact:  Is “video-tape’able” AND  Everyone in conversation agrees is true Otherwise is interpretation. Be very rigorous (This is a crucial step). Put Facts and Interpretations on separate sheets. End: When participants see their own interpretations as interpretations and not facts (can see outside the box). Tips: 6. List Facts
  58. 58. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 58 The “why” behind the Goal. Is not a new promise or goal. “Outsiders” are not a consideration. Process: gather suggestions, narrow down to one that everyone agrees on, the one with the most “power”. End: When the group has selected a single commitment. Tips: 7. Create A Commitment
  59. 59. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 59 The Process Phase 1: Establish Foundation for the Process Phase 2: Get into the Future Phase 3: Establish a Solution from the Future Phase 4: Support the Solution
  60. 60. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 60 “What are all the possible ways we could have used to fulfill the success criteria?” Typically use brainstorming process. Anything anyone says is OK; speak in headline form; no discussion. End: When the “popcorn” stops popping. Tips: 8. Create Possible Solutions
  61. 61. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 61 Select some possibilities and analyze their feasibility and desirability using the Success Criteria. Lots of different methods available, e.g., affinity grouping, ranking. May involve “off-line” analysis by subgroups. End: When the group has reached consensus and is ready to move into action. Tips: 9. Analyze Feasibility
  62. 62. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 62 Select one or more solutions. Establish promises to get into action.  A promise = who, what, by when End: When are sufficient promises to implement the solution, i.e.,  “Does everyone agree that the proposed Action Plan will inevitably produce the Success Criteria and is feasible?” Tips: 10. Establish Promises for Action and Accountability
  63. 63. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 63 The Process Phase 1: Establish Foundation for the Process Phase 2: Get into the Future Phase 3: Establish a Solution from the Future Phase 4: Support the Solution
  64. 64. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 64 For each promise, ask: “What could happen that might keep you from keeping your promise?” End: When all obstacles resolved and promisers are confident of their ability to keep their promises. Tips: 11. Resolve Potential Obstacles to Promises
  65. 65. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 65 For each promise: How will the group know if the promise was kept or not? What will be done when the promise is kept (how will next steps be determined)? What will be done if the promise is not kept? Tips: 12. Establish Follow-up Mechanism
  66. 66. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 66 Acknowledge:  Explicitly get agreement that the obstacle has been resolved.  Recognize contributions that people have made.  Recognize what has been learned. Appreciate: thank people for their courage, commitment, etc. Tips: 13. Acknowledge and Appreciate
  67. 67. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 67 Conversation for Resolving Obstacles Eight Principles for Producing Breakthroughs Outline of the Conversation Resources and Next Steps
  68. 68. Available Literature Copies of the webinar slides. “Reliably Producing Breakthroughs” “Producing Results #12: Problems with Problem-Solving” “Producing Results #13: Seven Principles for Producing Breakthroughs” “Producing Results #14: Process for Producing Breakthroughs” (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 68
  69. 69. Available Literature “Effective Meetings #7: Consensus - Creativity and Win-Win” “Effective Meetings #8: Effectively Using Consensus” For copies and/or access to the Frontier Associates’ On-Line Library contact: irosenberg@frontier-assoc.com (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 69
  70. 70. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 70 Get Experience Practice with 5 or less people with a common issue (versus holding different positions). Be coaches for each other in real time. Available through Frontier Associates:  Watch an experienced facilitator resolve a real problem.  Get formal training.
  71. 71. (c) 2014 Frontier Associates, Inc. 71 Reliably Solving Intractable Problems Ivan M. Rosenberg Frontier Associates, Inc. 4804 Laurel Canyon Blvd., Suite 804 Valley Village, CA 91607 818-505-9915 irosenberg@frontier-assoc.com www.frontier-assoc.com

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