Reliability roadmap using quality function deployment

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A project sponsored in 2010 by the Aerospace Vehicle Systems Institute (AVSI), AFE 74, engaged a community of reliability subject matter experts to develop a reliability prediction technology roadmap based on a collaborative quality function deployment (QFD) industry assessment. The QFD provided a means to capture multiple viewpoints in a detailed enumeration of the needs, priorities and potential solutions for new reliability prediction methods to better support reliable system design processes. The discussions that were inspired by conducting this QFD provided an opportunity to open communications on some very divisive reliability prediction issues and helped bring the community together to solve the challenges of improving the utility of reliability predictions for the future. This presentation summarizes the findings of each step of the QFD, the reliability predictions roadmap derived from the QFD and discusses steps being taken to implement the roadmap..

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Reliability roadmap using quality function deployment

  1. 1. Reliability Roadmap Using Quality Function Deployment Lori Bechtold ©2011 ASQ & Presentation Lori Bechtold Presented live on Jan 13th, 2011http://reliabilitycalendar.org/The_Reliability_Calendar/Webinars_‐_English/Webinars_‐_English.html
  2. 2. ASQ Reliability Division  English Webinar Series One of the monthly webinars  on topics of interest to  reliability engineers. To view recorded webinar (available to ASQ Reliability  Division members only) visit asq.org/reliability To sign up for the free and available to anyone live  webinars visit reliabilitycalendar.org and select English  Webinars to find links to register for upcoming eventshttp://reliabilitycalendar.org/The_Reliability_Calendar/Webinars_‐_English/Webinars_‐_English.html
  3. 3. Reliability Roadmap UsingQuality Function Deployment(QFD)April 14, 2011Lori BechtoldBoeing Research & Technologylori.e.bechtold@boeing.com253-657-6131BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved. EOT_ETS_Template_simple.ppt | 1/5/2010 1
  4. 4. AgendaEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy•  Project Background•  Review of Results from each step•  Overall QFD Findings•  Reliability Roadmap•  Next Steps
  5. 5. Situation SummaryEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy•  Traditional handbook reliability methods are inadequate for rapidly changing new technologies•  Customers are seeking new reliability methods that use physics of failure and support Design for Reliability•  DoD, industry and academia are partnering to revise or create new reliability handbooks and standards that address these needs
  6. 6. AVSIEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy•  Aerospace Vehicle Systems Institute (AVSI) •  Chartered to conduct research to benefit aerospace industry •  Research Consortium, based at Texas A&M University •  Member companies include: –  Department of Defense –  FAA –  Boeing –  Honeywell –  Rockwell Collins –  BAE Systems –  Goodrich ECS –  Etc. •  Funding for research is based on shared contributions from companies sponsoring the research
  7. 7. AVSI Research ProjectsEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy•  AFE 17, 71 – Semiconductor Wearout •  Have developed and validated physics of failure models for small scale feature semiconductor wearout effects •  Developing software tools to streamline development and use of physics of failure models•  AFE 16, 72 – Atmospheric Radiation Effects on Semiconductors •  Have characterized the damaging effects of atmospheric radiation for semiconductors •  Developed testing protocols for determining SEE susceptibility•  AFE 74 – Reliability Prediction Framework •  Developing roadmap and framework for utilizing AVSI research results in context of a reliability prediction •  Providing information to MIL-HDBK-217 revision team
  8. 8. Objectives – AFE 74Engineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy • Chart the future of reliability research • Integrate the wisdom and experience of a large number of industry reliability experts • Focus the discussions around the common goal to improve electronics reliability assessment practices • Critically analyze findings, and organize analysis process using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) • Develop a reliability roadmap with broad support Within the scope of AFE 74 s charter to investigate electronic and electromechanical failure rate modeling
  9. 9. Scope of this study and other effortsEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy HB-0009 Reliability effort Program AFE 74 Reliability How it supports Design for Modeling Reliability (electronics, electromechanical devices) (DFR) • Reliability Growth Testing • Environmental testing (mechanical, structural items) • FMEA • FRACAS Reliability modeling provides information for the DFR process, but is not the only activity in the reliability program
  10. 10. Roadmap approach - QFDEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology • Quality Function Deployment (QFD) tool selected:Engineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy •  Recognized industry decision making tool •  Organizes a quantified team consensus evaluation •  Maps prioritized needs with design features •  Results in framework for new capability and identifies gaps for future developmental work •  Honeywell expertise in its use – Six Sigma Black Belts 4. Cross-Feature Correlations 2. Technical Response: Features 1. Stake- 3. Relationship of 5. 6. Offering s holder Technical Response to Alternatives Technical Needs & Needs Assessment Features & Priorities Requirements 3. Feature Priorities (output)
  11. 11. QFD Process of EngagementEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy • QFD conducted in a series of questionnaires, each followed by telecon discussions • Data reduction done by AFE 74 core project team • Consensus where possible, Delphi process for resolution of polarized issues, segmentation or adaptation where necessary, continue moving forward
  12. 12. Participation by Business SegmentEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy 9% 23% Integrator Consultant 28% Producer Customer 17% Research 23%
  13. 13. Participation by Market SegmentEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy 18% Military 2% Commercial 3% Both (Mil, Comm) 54% Industrial 15% Consumer Other or Unidentified 8%
  14. 14. Step 1 – NeedsEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy•  Identify and prioritize stakeholder needs (requirements)•  Questionnaire 1 provided a starting list (seed values) of needs – participants asked to modify list and suggest additions•  Questionnaire 1.1 – Recirculation of Q1 for reactions to changes•  Questionnaire 2 – Need priorities and Features
  15. 15. Needs Engineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology PriorityStakeholder Needs / Requirements ID Elaboration Weight Engineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy and near future technologies and their influential factors as understood byCoverage of Legacy, contemporary and near future Models include legacy, contemporary 9 1technologies state of the practice. Reliability models cover a comprehensive range of electronic / electrical device types / functions used in a varietyCoverage of comprehensive range of electronic and 9 2 of applications and environmental stress levels.electromechanical devices. and relevant packaging elements. Includes parts implementing mixed technologies. Models include detailed assessments of physical failure mechanisms, providing results that can be incorporated into the overall reliability assessment and can be used for design or process improvement.Assessments of physical failure mechanisms 9 3 These methods and tools also provide explanations and identification of specific failure mechanisms (i.e. why things break and/or age) Models include wearout impact due to feature size Models account for the impact of transient and possible cumulative damage mechanisms due to atmosphericTransient and cumulative effects due to atmospheric radiation 4 4 radiation, such as those that may be covered under the umbrella of Single Event Effects. Models account for the impact of solder joint fatigue, including the effects of lead-free solders and/or deviceSolder joint integrity including effects of lead-free materials 7 5 termination finishes. This includes mixed technology (PbSn solder with lead free finishes) Models include impact of tin whisker risk due to use of lead-free solder or solder finishes, with consideration ofImpact of lead-free solder/finishes tin whisker risk 7 6 the benefit of preventative measures. If applicable, software/firmware reliability issues are considered. This can be an important issue for systemSoftware/firmware reliability 4 7 reliability modeling. If theres an observed issue with NFFs, models include no fault found "removal rate" This is not applicable ifNo Fault Found removal rate 1 8 contracting language limits countable failures to confirmed primary failures. Results provide timely and useful information to the design process, and support a broader reliability improvementResults support a design for reliability program 8 9 program. Consistent methodology for aggregating detailed results from different statistical distributions in a system levelConsistent methods to aggregate results 7 10 reliability or availability modelTime dependent results & constant, fixed rate 5 11 Models include time dependent results as well as constant, fixed point, rate estimates Models are included for non-operating (storage) and operating conditions and for the combinations of these based on pre-defined (or explicit) operational profile input. (Otherwise models normally provide results on anNon-operating (storage), operating and mixed results 7 12 operating hour basis) (Serves a couple of purposes: Dormant models and ability to mix a dormant and operating model together) Reliability estimates include mean and expected variation or uncertainty. If feasible, variation may be modeled byEstimates of statistical confidence or other uncertainty use of statistical confidence (e.g. confidence or prediction intervals) and / or estimated by a measure of risk 5 13measures. associated with particular results. Estimates of uncertainty and risk are aggregated along with mean, single point values.
  16. 16. Needs Engineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology PriorityStakeholder Needs / Requirements ID Elaboration Weight Engineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Given the same assumptions, defined level of refinement, and version of model, Technology Strategy results are reproducible across analysts, organizations, implementation vehicle (tool), and time, (implies all factors, their range of values, andResults are reproducible 9 14 prerequisite assumptions are explicitly defined, constrained and quantified through appropriate tables, functions or algorithms. Variation due to implicit assumptions, open-ended model elements, or subjective assessment is minimized.) Models and/or model parameters have been validated, or are traceable or have a documented foundation, orModels are validated 9 15 provide a methodology of validation with data and model outputs are representative of in-service performance Models allow for cost-effective progressive refinement from rough order of magnitude to high fidelity reliabilityProgressive refinement from ROM to high fidelity 5 16 assessments for application throughout the development lifecycle. (e.g. parts count vs. stress) Reliability models apply to a wide range of detailed environments and operating loads, including military andMil-aero environments and operating loads 8 17 aeronautic applications Modeled environmental effects should recognize the applicability of a design to the environment (a full Mil cableModels account for design for environment 7 18 vs. an "office cable" in an outside application. Mil/avionic connector on an avionic environment. Reliability models allow for adjustment based on data such as quantified test and/or in-service results includingAdjustment based on data such as test and/or in-service 7 19 experience with specific parts, manufacturers and system level effects when this data is available. Similarityresults determination method defined within the model.Widely accepted / used in aerospace / Hi Rel 7 20 Use of reliability models and methods that are widely accepted / used in aerospaceWidely accepted / used in general industry 4 21 Use of reliability models and methods that are widely accepted / used in general industry Model assumptions, limitations, and trade-offs are easy to understand and model can be applied correctly by theEasy to use and implement with limited data 5 22 experienced or lightly experienced analyst. Also can be used without excessive cost, research or equipment.Support widely and readily available 5 23 Support is widely and readily (public domain?) available, including comprehensive documentation and training. Technical literature is readily available elaborating the basis and derivation of the models developed, includingLiterature elaborating bases of the models available 7 24 traceability to validated sources Models can be implemented through software (either purchase price of canned/proprietary tools orReadily implemented through software 5 25 implementation cost through common off-the-shelf tools.).
  17. 17. Step 2 – Identified Technical Response (Features)Engineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy•  Questionnaire 2 and 2.1 – Established list of 65 design features•  Continued the discussion of need priorities•  Utilized Delphi method to bring together polarized results
  18. 18. FeaturesEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology Features ElaborationEngineering, Operations & confidence intervals | Enterprise Technology measure of statistical confidence, if based on 1 Results include Technology Model produces results that include Strategy empirical data The level of maturity or conversly the risk in the reliability estimate is defined and applied to each component and aggregated to the system level by some well defined means. Where reliability and/or safety are less critical a lower maturity estimate may be acceptable. Conversely for safety critical or space applications one could foresee using Result includes estimates risk or maturity 2 the highest maturity (lowest risk) estimates. Guidelines for maturity levels can be level defined by factors such as the leve of detail of the analysis, quality of assumptions, the degree of testing and validation, etc. these factors may map directly to a DFR program. The maturity level could potentially be a requirement, providing a basis for the level of effort in the reliability program. Failure rate output is a time-dependent curve from which fixed point estimates may be Component model provides failure distribution 3 taken. Component model provides failure distribution parameters, e.g. Weibull 2 or parameters, e.g. Weibull, where not constant more parameters, where they deviate from constant failure rate assumption Methodology to estimate useful life based on life estimates of individual components 4 Result includes estimate of useful system life and interconnects. Provides explicit conversion method from time- Provides explicit conversion method from time-dependent failure rate, e.g. Weibull, to 5 dependent failure rate to constant failure rate estimated equivalent fixed rate for expected life of system Determine methods to combine multiple distribution types into single equations, no Allow for combined probability distributions 6 matter how complex that may be. Go beyond the SR-332 methods 1, 2 and 3 and (pdf and cdf) beyond Bayesian Combinations Model results in failure rates in a specific cyclic measure e.g. time (op hours), distance (miles), cycles (revolutions, operations), etc. Knowing the failure rate in multiple cyclic Model results in failure rates directly in a 7 measures e.g. operating time (hours), calendar time (hours), distance (miles), cycles specific cyclic measure, e.g. operating hour (revolutions, operations), etc. the model provides means to determine failure rate in a standard measure, e.g. calendar hours. Results can be adjusted to failures in a specific cyclic measure e.g. time (hours), distance (miles), cycles (revolutions, operations), etc. Knowing the failure rate in Method for adjusting failure rates to a single 8 multiple cyclic measures e.g. operating time (hours), calendar time (hours), distance measure (miles), cycles (revolutions, operations), etc. the model provides means to determine failure rate in a standard measure, e.g. calendar hours. In addition to an overall failure rate, the models include a breakout by failure mode, and Model includes assessment of individual assessments of the impact of dominant failure mechanisms. Assessment of individual 9 failure modes and mechanisms failure mechanisms provides detailed information for mitigation of those mechanisms during design and supports FMEAs, FTAs, RGT and ESS design. Models can be easily manipulated to test "what if" scenarios, such as providing better environmental controls: Testing "what if" scenarios can be used to estimate the effectiveness of mitigation measures on fatigue life, such as controling the thermal or vibration environments. When combined with cost information, a conscious decision 10 Allows for easy "what if" analyses can be made to use or not use the mitigation measure. The ability to perform "what if" CAE simulation scenarios to evaluate reliability performance while operating in various environmental factors, geographic locations among different usage conditions. Models can be used to assess the fatigue life based on combined factors, such as Models include combined environmental 11 thermal/vibration or thermal/humidity. This can be used for creating designed effects experiments during the reliability growth testing phase.
  19. 19. FeaturesEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology Features ElaborationEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy link to tools such as FMEA/FMECA, Output of reliability estimate a form that can directly FTAs, RBDs, ... without "post processing" the reliability estimates (outside the tool). Results seamlessly compatible with other 12 E.g. the numbers "add up", appropriate time domain basis, failure rates for all relevant reliability tools failure modes, ... model could include failure mode distribution, i.e. how the part may fail given that physics of failure are understood. Systems are modelled as integrated elements Systems consist of electronics, electromechanical, human and software elements at a of hardware, software and human interaction 13 minimum. System reliability predictors must assess the interaction and effect of how producing an overall system reliability these different elements operate together. predictor Enables virtual test to field correlation analysis capabilities such as Simulated Guided 14 Supports Simulated Guided Testing Testing (SGT) the ability to optimize an accelerated life test profile for specific devices base on their design, components & architecture. Enables virtual test to field correlation analysis capabilities such as Simulated Aided 15 Supports Simulated Aided Testing Testing (SAT) the ability to interpret/translate life test results into accurate field life estimates. Model utilises a layered approach to consider the SW and all of the environment layers Model considers the SW and all of the 16 (SW environment: operating system, intermediate IO layer, application layer, ...) as environment layers as appropriate appropriate, eg SW language, operating system, HW drivers. Coverage of comprehensive range of software Operational failures are chargeable to software. Reliability predictors must consider all 17 issues and characteristics chargeable categories. Coverage of comprehensive range of human Operational failures are chargeable to operators, training and technical documentation. 18 reliability issues Reliability predictors must consider all chargeable categories. Models include a model based on software assessment, software quality practices, or 19 Models include a component for SW FR empirical data. It may be time dependent/growth model or not Include key physics of failure models for semiconductor failure rates and acceleration Includes comprehensive semiconductor PoF 20 factors, including, EM (Electro Migration), TDDB (Time dependent Dielectric models Breakdown), NBTI (Negative Bias Temperature Instability), HCI (Hot Carrier injection). Instead of listing each part type seperately, e.g. passive and active components, capacitors, resitors, microcircuits, etc. this feature is written. Model coverage for parts and part technologies are expanded beyond those available in current reliability analysis tools and handbooks, Fill gaps driven by new technology devices, new materials (e.g. Comprehensive suite of models for parts in 21 electrolytic caps, high power LEDs, displays,...), mixed technologies (e.g. power and common use. logic, analog and digital, ...), higher degrees of integration, etc. The "part space" for aerospace/hi-rel applications to be effectively covered. This may require surveys of part utilization, gap analyses, and follow-on research integrated with the modeling methodology defined by this effort. Model includes the connector failures due to corrosion, vibration fatigue, thermal 22 Connector Models cycling. 23 Electrolytic capacitor life model operating and storage (shelf) life models for electrolytic capacitors where applicable. Means defined to integrate into overall system reliability, life or failure rate estimates. cells used in aero/high rel environments are covered by models addressing their special 24 Reliability, durability & life models for considerations. Means defined to integrate into overall system reliability, life or failure electrochemical cells rate estimates.
  20. 20. FeaturesEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology Features ElaborationEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy 25 Photonics Model includes photonics, LEDs, fiber optic cables, fiber switches, etc. with regard to thermal loads, memory usage, processor demands, and other HW 26 capacity limited characteristics to predict system generated processing delays. Predict SW impact on HW architecture SW errors can be separated into SW specific failure mode features. Show regression rate drop predictors of SW with reliability growth tracking for successive version releases. Consider speed of self boot error handling directions at component level and 27 Provide SW errors per single lines of code. impact on signal processing. Consider programmable components stability and retention of program. Consider organizational practices and maturity for SW development. Programmable device data retention/wearout 28 Model includes programmable device data retention/wearout term modeled Model considers human in the loop in Model predict errors in the cognitive informaiton processing with regard to knowledge individual capability and response. based errors, skill based errors, mistakes, slips, lapses. Consider the effects of stressors such as time pressure on working memory, attention, performance 29 expectation. Note that depending on structure / writing objectives these human errors can be readily reworked into an overivew statement for general system failure mode, and then break out the elaboration statement into human specific failure modes as has been done for semi-conductors in rows 25-35 Model considers human in the loop in the Predict errors relating to human system interface with regard to physical operator operating environment. station ergonomics, signal processing, workload intensity/complexity/quantity, emergency (rare event) response, fatigue, vigilance, circadian rhythm, comfort levels, 30 degree of automation. Consider the effects of noise, vibration, light, heat, time of day, frequency of activity, sleep factors, personal motivation and others on performance. Model consider human in the loop in the Model consider effects of team interaction, and allows for scenarios of under manning, 31 organizational context. and under skilled operators. Consider leadership, organization goals, responsibility, communication, Model includes consideration of conformal coatings, both in terms of the benefit of moisture protection and the cost in terms of potential exacerbated thermal cycling 32 Conformal Coat Model fatigue. Different materials will have different effects, and the model should be capable of comparing different options. Tin whisker models, including stress- Tin whisker model includes model parameters for Pb-free solder alloys for PWB level. 33 dependent failure mechanisms for SnPb and (in addition to standard SnPb solder) Pb-free solder Includes time-dependent radiation failure Time dependent radiation failure modes and rates. Failure modes that result in 34 modes permanent cumulative change in device characteristics to the point of failure. Atmospheric radiation environment factor relationships SEU, MBU, SEL and guidance Includes SEE upset models for SEU, MBU, & 35 for driving factors (e.g. altitude, latitude), with defaults for applications (for example SEL cross-section vs technologies and feature sizes). Solder joint models, including temperature- Solder joint FR fatigue model includes fatigue ductility coefficient for Pb-free solder 36 dependent failure mechanisms for Pb-free alloys for each component and possibly PWB level. (in addition to standard SnPb solder solder) Provides a comprehensive package model that addresses legacy and new package technologies (i.e. BGA, CGA, SOIC, etc), perhaps a physics of failure model.. Includes Provides Package model, e.g.config & 37 provision for package configuration factors, e.g. differentiating full BGAs vs perimeter complexity factors BGAs. Model to include package related failure mechanisms (i.e. loss of hermiticity, corrosion, etc).
  21. 21. FeaturesEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology Features ElaborationEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy 38 Includes models for <130nm IC technology Includes models for <130 nanometer IC technologies 39 Model accounts for die complexity Models include terms for die complexity 40 Include storage / dormant environment models Models include Storage / dormant environment model Provides temperature cycling fatigue model at Models include temperature cycling fatigue between extreme cold and hot conditions 41 hot/cold extremes that are typical for Mil-Aero environments (and ramp rates). Includes method to quantify Model includes method to quantify removal rate - includes NFF (transient effects (SEE), 42 transient/intermittent failures weak bit, tolerance stackup, …) Provides coverage for hot/cold extreme 43 Acceleration factors for at least -55 to 125°C temperature effects Provides shock/vibration (high-cycle) fatigue 44 Models include shock and vibration effects at levels typical for mil-aero environments effects 45 Provides a humidity factor Models include a humidity factor including humidity cycling profiles. Model includes environment defined by application - e.g. AIF, AUC, and choice to tailor Provides tailorable environments defined by 46 specific environmental factors for custom applications: altitude, location in platform, and application modification of defaults of temperature, vibration, etc. Basic electrical operating load/stress relationships - includes operating frequency 47 Provides for electrical operating load/stress (Oscillator frequency, clock frequency, signal switching, etc) Provides ability to account for device operating 48 Explicit method to adjust results based on duty cycle (ontime/(on-time and off-time)) duty cycle 49 Takes into account power cycling rate Model takes into account power cycle rate The ability to rank and prioritize reliability risks identified in CAE simulations in terms of 50 Facilitates risk identification time to first failure, failure rate, mean life . . . etc. Models include a simplified version (e.g. parts Models include a simplified version (e.g. support for parts count model) for early 51 count method) assessments Defaults are provided for factors for early assessments. Knowing the application, Context driven defaults are provided for 52 environment and part characteristics - provide the ability to use default values for factors factors that may be unknown. Predicted or estimated subassembly, assembly and system failure rates (based on the sum of component failure rates) are positively or negatively impacted by the relative level of robustness used in the design, development and manufacturing processes. As Addresses variability in design, development 53 these processes become progressively more robust, achieved field reliability can be and manufacturing processes expected to approach maximum projected reliability potential. As these processes become progressively less robust, achieved field reliability will not realize or approach full projected reliability potential. Outputs from models that treat materials properties as constants or static variables will 54 Addresses variability in materials properties not reflect the reliability impact that can occur as a result of variability in materials properties during the component manufacturing and assembly processes. Outputs from component models that address only a subset of the expected field failure mechanisms (specific failure mechanisms are not modeled), that do so statically Addresses impact of complexities in the (mechanisms are treated as constants or fixed variables, not statistically-distributed 55 "natural" environment variables), or that do not consider the impact of combined environments (e.g., variability in material property responses over combined temperature/vibration/humidity ranges) can be misinterpreted or lead to erroneous results.
  22. 22. FeaturesEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy Features Elaboration Model allows for adjustment based on test/in- Method allows for adjustment of parameters by specificying the data required, method 56 service results of adjustment, and limitations to adjustment. Field experience reliability data can be combined with the initial empirical or Provides capability to incorporate field 57 deterministic model, using techniques such as Bayesian, to improve model results to experience reliability data. include data based on the complex "natural" environment. Model includes similarity methodology Model includes similarity methodolgy. Includes definition of what the similarity 58 (definition & adjustment) determinants (power, complexity, etc.) are and how to adjust for differences. Modeled environmental effects should recognize the appliability of a design to the 59 Models account for design for environment enviroment (a full Mil cable vs an "office cable" in an outside application. Mil/avionic connector on an avionic environment. Models are self-contained – Factors are explicitly defined, constrained and quantified 60 Models are self-contained through appropriate tables, functions or algorithms Models provide broad coverage of common IC technologies: CMOS; bipolar, GaAs, 61 Mechanism for review and update of models digital, analog, NAND Flash as the industry changes. Other component types are updated periodically or as required. Models include substantiation - bases for models elaborated. References in the model 62 Models are substantiated to available papers, publications. 63 Validated by test Models have been validated through test Correlation with simulation & analytical tools used in industry such as CALCE solder 64 Validated by industry accepted models / tools joint models; proposed FaRBS; etc. 65 Validated by field performance Correlation with in-service experience
  23. 23. Step 3: Needs/Features CorrelationsEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology Relationships between Customer Needs and Design Parameters (Features)Engineering, Operations &well the design variables predict the customer needs Strategy Determine relationships to see how Technology | Enterprise Technology Design Features Component model provides failure Relationship Scoring: failure rate to constant failure rate Result includes estimate of useful Result includes estimates risk or Framework 9 = Direct and Strong Effect Allow for combined probability measure, e.g. operating hour method from time-dependent Model results in failure rates Provides explicit conversion distribution parameters, e.g. Weibull, where not constant 3 = Moderate Effect Results include confidence directly in a specific cyclic distributions (pdf and cdf) 1 = Remote Effect 0 = No Effect … blank = default to seed score maturity level system life Stakeholde intervals Stakeholder Requirements r Priority Coverage of Legacy, contemporary and near future technologies 0 9 0 1 1 1 1 0 Initial values Score-> Coverage of comprehensive range of electronic and electromechanical devices. and relevant packaging elements. 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 provided as Assessments of physical failure mechanisms Score-> 8 0 0 1 1 3 3 0 starting point Score-> Transient and cumulative effects due to atmospheric radiation 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 or seed Score-> Solder joint fatigue including effects of lead-free materials 7 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 score Score-> Impact of lead-free solder/finishes tin whisker risk 7 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 Score-> Input Software/firmware reliability 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Score-> requested in space below…
  24. 24. Features PrioritizedEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800Engineering, Operations & Technologyy  |ield  pmerformance Enterprise Technology Strategy Individual  failure  modes  and   echanisms Validated  b f Validated  by  test Models  are  substantiated FRs  directly  i n  a  specific  c yclic  measure Package  model:  config  &  complexity  factors Includes  combined  environmental  effects Temperature  cycling  fatigue,  hot/cold  extremes Programmable  device  data  retention/wearout Validated  by  i ndustry  accepted  models  /  tools Models  account  for  design  for  e nvironment Addresses  c omplexities  i n  the  "natural"  e nvironment Tailorable  e nvironments  defined  by  application Estimate  of  useful  system  l ife   Provides  shock/vibration  fatigue  e ffects   Mechanism  for  review  and  update  of  models Addresses  variability  i n  design,  dev  &  mfg  processes Provides  for  e lectrical  operating  l oad/stress   Adjustment  based  on  test/in-­‐service  results Capability  to  i ncorporate  field  e xperience Combined  probability  distr  (pdf  and  c df) Model  i ncludes  similarity  methodology   Model  accounts  for  die  c omplexity Addresses  variability  i n  materials  properties   Eelectrochemical  cells Account  for  device  operating  duty  cycle "What  i f"  analyses Electrolytic  capacitor  l ife  model Provides  a  humidity  factor SEE  upset  models:  SEU,  MBU,  &  SEL Systems  model  hw;  sw;  human  i nteraction coverage  for  hot/cold  e xtreme  temp  e ffects Models  for  < 130nm  IC  technology Conversion  time-­‐dependent  to  c onstant  fr Time-­‐dependent  radiation  failure  modes Comprehensive  model  suite,  parts  i n  c ommon  use. Comprehensive  semiconductor  PoF  models Provides  failure  distribution  parameters   Photonics Models  i nclude  a  simplified  version Context  driven  defaults  provided  for  factors Account  for  power  c ycling  rate Models  are  self-­‐c ontained   Solder  j oint  models,  including  Pb-­‐free  solder   Connector  Models Storage  /  dormant  e nvironment  models Tin  whisker  models   Seamlessly  compatible  with  reliability  tools Estimates  of  risk  or  maturity  l evel   Facilitates  risk  i dentification Conformal  Coat  Model Method  adjusting  FRs  t o  a  single  measure Supports  Simulated  Guided  Testing Supports  Simulated  Aided  Testing Method  to  quantify  transient/intermittent  failures Include  a  c omponent  for  SW  FR Model  for  SW  &  e nvironment  l ayers Includes  c onfidence  i ntervals Predict  SW  i mpact  on  HW  architecture   Comprehensive  range  of  human  reliability  i ssues Human  e rgonomic  e rrors Human  c ognition  e rrors Human  manning  and  skill  definition SW  e rrors  per  single  lines  of  code.   Comprehensive  range  of  SW  i ssues
  25. 25. Prioritized Needs, Coverage by FeaturesEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & Technology Needs  -­‐ Weighted  CoverageEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Widely  accepted  /  used  in  aerospace  /  Hi  Rel Mil-­‐aero  e nvironments  and  operating  loads Assessments  of  physical  failure  mechanisms Models  are  validated Results  support  a  design  for  r eliability  program Models  account  for  design  for  e nvironment Adjustment  based  on  data  such  as  test  and/or  in-­‐service  r esults Results  are  r eproducible Coverage  of  L egacy,  c ontemporary  and  near  future  technologies   Non-­‐operating  (storage),  operating  and  mixed  r esults   Widely  accepted  /  used  in  general  industry Coverage  of  c omprehensive  r ange  of  e lectronic  and  e lectromechanical  … Total Easy  to  use  and  implement  with  limited  data Solder  joint  integrity  including  e ffects  of  lead-­‐free  materials Time  dependent  r esults  &  c onstant,  fixed  r ate   Impact  of  lead-­‐free  solder/finishes  tin  whisker  risk   Progressive  r efinement  from  ROM  to  high  fidelity   Estimates   of  statistical   confidence  or  other  uncertainty  measures. Software/firmware  reliability Literature  e laborating  bases  of  the  models  available Consistent  methods  to  aggregate  results Support  widely  and  r eadily  available Transient  and  c umulative  effects  due  to  atmospheric  radiation No  Fault  Found  r emoval  r ate Readily  implemented  through  software
  26. 26. Step 4 – Feature CorrelationsEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy•  Questionnaire 4 – Feature/Feature correlations •  Discussed in Telecon August 4•  Purpose: Identify conflicts and design trade-offs – Does implementing this feature help or hinder implementing the other feature?•  Feature to feature scoring:•  Seed scores provided, respondents provided recommended changes and comments
  27. 27. Questionnaire 4 – Summary of ResultsEngineering, Operations & Technology | Boeing Research & TechnologyEngineering, Operations & Technology | Enterprise Technology Strategy•  Strong correlation provides potential for joint implementation, for taking advantage of synergy•  Features that are strongly correlated are candidates for joint development - a consideration for the reliability roadmap•  Strong correlation (++) examples: •  Provides capability to incorporate field experience reliability data strongly correlates with: –  Results include confidence intervals –  Result includes estimate of useful system life –  Supports Simulated Aided Testing –  Provides tailorable environments defined by application –  Model allows for adjustment based on test/in-service results –  Mechanism for review and update of models –  Validated by field performance

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