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ASEAN Energy Insight Q1 2019 - Coal

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Coal Insight in ASEAN in Q1 2019 based on the news collection by ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE)

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ASEAN Energy Insight Q1 2019 - Coal

  1. 1. ASEAN Energy Insight Q1 2019 Created By:
  2. 2. One Community for Sustainable Energy Coal in ASEAN Cole plays a major role in ASEAN energy sector Coal Production Coal Import Coal Strong hold in power sector
  3. 3. One Community for Sustainable Energy ▪ Indonesia produces nearly 90% of ASEAN’s coal while Vietnam produces only 7%. ▪ ASEAN will see a plateauing of coal production from 2019 due to Indonesia’s plan to cap its coal production at 400 million tonnes per year,, according to Indonesia’s new Energy Plan (RUEN). Advanced Policy Senerio (APS) ASEAN Target Scenerio(ATS) BAU Coal Production Coal in ASEAN Source: AEO5
  4. 4. One Community for Sustainable EnergyCoal Import Coal in ASEAN 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mtoe Coal Import per country Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Thailand Vietnam Source: AEO5
  5. 5. One Community for Sustainable Energy • ASEAN has the CFPP capacity of 63 GW in 2015, 95 GW in 2025 and 196 GW in 2040. • Major contributors from Indonesia and Vietnam. • Notable contributions from Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines. Source: AEO5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2015 2025 2040 GW Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanamr Philippines Thailand Vietnam Coal Strong hold in power sector CFPP Installed Capacity in GW by Country (ATS) Coal in ASEAN
  6. 6. One Community for Sustainable Energy How does ASEAN coal sector look like in Q1 2019? Let’s observe the news we collected in the first quarter of 2019 … While ASEAN reliance on coal is significant, it is a surprise that only 5% of news we found are about coal.
  7. 7. One Community for Sustainable Energy How does ASEAN coal sector look like in Q1 2019? ▪ Coal Production and Price Dynamics in Coal-Producing Countries Indonesia Coal price is seen to continue falling based on coal benchmark price set by the GoI. USD 92.41 per ton (Jan) → USD 91.8 per ton (Feb) → USD 90.57 per ton (Mar) Lowered coal production target in 2019 to 480 million tons to stabilize price, DMO to keep at 25% of production DMO market last year only reached 21.7% of domestic production However, amidst the price volatility & market uncertainty in 2019 Indonesia and Vietnam as coal-rich countries seem to experience dynamics in coal production and trading in this first quarter of 2019. Several big coal producer plans to increase production, in response to China’s and India’s increasing demand
  8. 8. One Community for Sustainable Energy How does ASEAN coal sector look like in Q1 2019? ▪ Coal Production and Price Dynamics in Coal-Producing Countries Vietnam VN aspires to earn higher revenue from coal sector, targeting VND 128 trillion in 2019, half of it is from coal production. (Vinacomin) Coal sector is seen to be blooming Different story is shown in Vietnam… Increasing local demand, which is estimated at 58 million tonnes this year, 90 million in 2025, and 130 million tonnes in 2030. From local demand this year, Vinacomin target to reach 40 million tonnes of local production to cater the demand. The estimated revenue from this production is VNĐ128 trillion (US$5.6 billion) This is due to As result..
  9. 9. One Community for Sustainable Energy How does ASEAN coal sector look like in Q1 2019? ▪ Coal as Major ASEAN Electricity Source Coal is shown to remain as key energy source from ASEAN countries in fuelling its power sector, which is reflected in the government directives under medium-or-long term power development plant. Indonesia Vietnam • Indonesia expects to supply 54.4 per cent of the country’s electricity by 2025 with coal. • For the long-term plan, Indonesia is still boosting coal share by 58.5 per cent in the energy mix, and will keep coal as main energy source until 2050. • Vietnam Electricity (EVN) estimated that coal demand for electricity generation in 2019 will hit 25.84 million tonnes of will be supplied domestically 19 million tonnes coal and import 6.84 million tonnes of mixed coal. • According to the forecast, coal generation will reach 50.5 per cent of the total power mix by 2028, with gas at 22.5 per cent, hydropower at 22.8 per cent and non-hydro renewables at 3.8 per cent.
  10. 10. One Community for Sustainable Energy How does ASEAN coal sector look like in Q1 2019? ▪ Coal as Major ASEAN Electricity Source Malaysia ThailandPhilippines • The Philippines is also predicted to have the highest share of coal among ASEAN Member States in its power mix 12 years from now. • Currently, 75% of the coal in the Philippines is imported, and it is the biggest source of electricity with a capacity of 7,419 MW • Recently introduced its new blended coal-fired power plant in Lumut, Perak, as part of a continuous effort to ensure a sustainable coal supply for electricity generation. • It seems that only Thailand that shows a different stance, as the country has declared to look beyond coal and decrease its share in the energy mix by investing more in natural gas through its state-owned energy group PTT.
  11. 11. In the other hand, there is emerging demand from communities in ASEAN for the region to start shifting away from coal and look for cleanlier and more sustainable alternatives. One Community for Sustainable Energy How does ASEAN coal sector look like in Q1 2019? ▪ Coal as Major ASEAN Electricity Source • A coalition of non-government organisations (NGOs) has called on Southeast Asia’s largest financial services group, DBS Bank, to back out of a 2,000-megawatt coal-fired power project in Indonesia that is close to finalise a financial deal. • In the Philippines, several provincial and municipal governments like San Juan and Negros Occidental recently declared that they will become coal-free and look to renewables as alternatives • Shown last year in Thailand where the government halted the plan to build coal power plants in Krabi and Songkhla provinces due to the communities’ protests over its harmful effect on health and the environment. Thailand PhilippinesIndonesia
  12. 12. One Community for Sustainable Energy Challenges on Coal Coal-producing country (INA & VN): Coal-importing and coal-utilizing country (MLY, THI, PHI): • Market challenge on production & volatility of prices • Domestic Market Obligation (INA) • Long-term plan in developing power sector on coal • Coal supply chain & security of supply • Energy diversification plan • Resource dependency Environment & Sustainability (ASEAN): • Affordability vs Sustainability • Financing New Coal Power Plant & CCT • Global pressure and INDC commitment Image: Greenpeace Image: Antara
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