Plan 2040 Goals: Growing a Vibrant Economy in Metro Atlanta

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Looks at one of the five key Plan 2040 goals - the economy. This explores specific data related to the economy of Metro Atlanta.

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Plan 2040 Goals: Growing a Vibrant Economy in Metro Atlanta

  1. 1. Plan 2040 Goal: Economic Recovery and Prosperity Atlanta Regional Commission For more information contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com
  2. 2. Plan 2040 Indicators: www.atlantaregional.com/scorecard
  3. 3. Plan 2040 Indicators: www.atlantaregional.com/scorecard
  4. 4. Is Our Economy Diverse Enough To Compete Globally? • Atlanta is no longer simply competing with other cities in the Southeast or the nation • Global business leaders see Atlanta with international competitiveness • Metro Atlanta’s economy must continue to leverage its assets to stay relevant and thrive in this global context • Key determinants explored here include exports, innovation, competitiveness, employment, Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP), and home price Source: OnTheMap Program, U.S. Census Bureau
  5. 5. Exports • Metro areas that seize opportunities in new markets will help boost the country’s economic competitiveness and create jobs locally • The value of metro Atlanta’s exports has risen by 45% since 2005 • While this is undeniably good, other research suggests that metro Atlanta lags behind other large metro areas in overall export activity • As a share of the Atlanta region’s total metro GDP, only 8% is attributable to exports as of 2010, which ranks metro Atlanta 77th out of the 100 largest metros in the country. Source: International Trade Administration , Brookings Institution “Export Nation 2012”
  6. 6. Patents Metro Atlanta: Percent of All Patents in 99 Large Metro Areas 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% • Patents are a good way to measure economic progress by indicating new knowledge and new innovations • Metro Atlanta has increased its share of all patents developed in the 99 largest metro areas, from about 1.5 percent of all patents in 2000 to 1.9 percent by 2011 1.70% 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% 1.30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office
  7. 7. Patents Patents per 10,000 population, 2010: Top 25 Metros 16.00 14.00 12.00 • Metro Atlanta has taken on an increased role in innovation since 2000, but still ranks fairly low overall • Atlanta ranks 16th out of the top 25 largest U.S. metros on patents per 10,000 people 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 San Francisco Seattle San Diego Boston Minneapolis Portland Detroit Los Angeles Houston Philadelphia Dallas New York Phoenix Pittsburgh Washington Atlanta Chicago Denver Baltimore St. Louis, MO Sacramento Miami Tampa San Antonio Riverside 0.00 Source: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office
  8. 8. Concentration of jobs in key sectors • Metro Atlanta a leader nationally in “knowledge” and logistics jobs Location Quotient by Year: Logistics Hub 1.6 • “Knowledge” jobs include IT, telecom, corporate and regional HQ, professional services and corporate and customer support operations. They are among the highest paying jobs in the region. • Logistics jobs include supply chain management, transportation services, warehousing and storage and wholesale trade. 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.4 1.35 1.3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Location Quotient by Year: Knowledge Hub 1.6 1.55 1.5 1.45 Values larger than 1 mean metro Atlanta has higher concentration than nation as a whole 1.4 1.35 1.3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  9. 9. Employment Change, August 2008 – August 2013 (year-over-year percent change) • During the Great Recession, metro Atlanta’s employment gains lagged those of the nation’s gains. • For the past year, however, metro Atlanta’s job market has been outperforming that of the nation’s on a year-over-year percent change basis. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  10. 10. Employment Change by Industry, August 2012 – August 2013 (year-over-year percent change) In looking at job gains by sector, metro Atlanta is outpacing the nation in jobs added in Construction and Information, which are critical sectors for metro Atlanta. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  11. 11. Employment Change by Large Metro, August 2012 – August 2013 (year-over-year percent change) Nationally, metro Atlanta ranks fourth in the percent change in the number of jobs added over the past year (August 2012 – August 2013). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  12. 12. Employment Change Since Recession, December 2007 – July 2013 (year-over-year percent change) Despite impressive gains recently, there is still a little more work to do to get back to pre-recession levels Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  13. 13. Average Annual Wage Increases, 2000 - 2011 (in 2011 dollars) In many ways, metro Atlanta’s economic struggles began before the official beginning of the Great Recession. Wage increases lagged behind the national average for much of the 2000 decade. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, CA34
  14. 14. Wage and Compensation Change by Large Metro, Sept. 2012 – Sept. 2013 (year-over-year percent change) Since 2012, however, metro Atlanta’s total compensation and wage increases are greater than all other large metro areas. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  15. 15. Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate 12.0 • • Metro Atlanta’s unemployment rate has been consistently higher than national average since the Great Recession, but the gap has been decreasing since the beginning of FY13 October 2013: Atlanta’s UE (7.7%) is 0.4% higher than nation’s UE rate (7.3%) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 ATL U.S. Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 0.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  16. 16. Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) • GMP measures the total economic output of metro areas Atlanta GMP: All Industries 310000 290000 • Atlanta was behind other metros between 2010 and 2011 with stagnant growth • 2012 preliminary data indicates that Metro Atlanta’s GMP has recovered above prerecession levels 270000 250000 230000 210000 190000 170000 2001 Source: Benchmarking Central Ohio, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  17. 17. Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) Change in Gross Metropolitan Product Since The "Trough" 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% • The Trough: lowest point for GMP • Atlanta’s trough was in Q3 of 2009 • Metro Atlanta ranks 10th in GMP recovery among top 25 U.S. metros Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  18. 18. Home Price Index Case Shiller's Home Price Index (January 2000=100) 140 130 120 110 100 90 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 Jul-06 Jan-06 Jul-05 Jan-05 Jul-04 Jan-04 Jul-03 Jan-03 Jul-02 Jan-02 Jul-01 Jan-01 Jul-00 Jan-00 80 • Metro Atlanta is one of the national leaders in home price gains on a year-overyear basis • Prices are down 16.9 percent when compared to peak prices (July 2007), but are up over 13 percent when compared to 2000 Source: Case-Shiller Index
  19. 19. Home Price Index • Metros across the country are showing consistent improvement since the Great Recession Source: Case-Shiller Index -47.1% FL-Miami -39.3% AZ-Phoenix -37.8% FL-Tampa -35.3% MI-Detroit -27.2% IL-Chicago -24.3% CA-San Diego -23.4% CA-Los Angeles -23.2% Composite-20 -20.3% NY-New York -20.1% MN-Minneapolis -19.7% DC-Washington • Although home prices are down about 16.9% since the peak, prices in several metros have been suffering more NV-Las Vegas -18.6% CA-San Francisco -18.2% GA-Atlanta -16.9% WA-Seattle -16.6% OR-Portland -14.7% OH-Cleveland -13.4% NC-Charlotte -8.0% MA-Boston -7.8% TX-Dallas 4.6% CO-Denver 4.8% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%
  20. 20. Summary • Atlanta is improving in exports, but is slightly lagging in terms of national average • Atlanta’s share of patents is increasing, but far from the nation’s patent leaders • Knowledge and Logistics job sectors are above the national average • The unemployment rate has not yet moderated to pre-recession levels, and metro Atlanta's rate remains above the national unemployment rate • Metro Atlanta's recovery from the lowest point (in Q3, 2009) in Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) ranks 10th among the top 25 U.S. metros • Metro Atlanta is among the nation's leaders in recent home price gains as noted in the Case-Shiller Index
  21. 21. Plan 2040 Goal: Economic Recovery and Prosperity Atlanta Regional Commission For more information contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com

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