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The Quarter, Economic Indicators for Metro Atlanta (Q1, 2013)


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Looks ata variety of economic indicators for metro Atlanta, including employment, home prices, foreclosures, building permits, as well as office and retail trends.

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The Quarter, Economic Indicators for Metro Atlanta (Q1, 2013)

  1. 1. The Atlanta Regional Commission’s “The Quarter” looks at some of theleading indicators of overall economic health from a non-economist’sview. It compares Atlanta to other metropolitan areas and looks at thecounties within the region where the data allow. While this is not acomprehensive look at the local economy, it is a gauge of the generaldirection the economy is moving.
  2. 2. -8-6-4-20246Jan-00May-00Sep-00Jan-01May-01Sep-01Jan-02May-02Sep-02Jan-03May-03Sep-03Jan-04May-04Sep-04Jan-05May-05Sep-05Jan-06May-06Sep-06Jan-07May-07Sep-07Jan-08May-08Sep-08Jan-09May-09Sep-09Jan-10May-10Sep-10Jan-11May-11Sep-11Jan-12May-12Sep-12Jan-13ATL USDuring the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially) and immediately afterwards, Atlanta wasperforming worse than the nation as a whole when looking at year-over-year employment changes. SinceMarch of 2012, however, Atlanta has outperformed the nation each month.Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary. Shaded areasrepresent recessions this decade)
  3. 3. 2,1002,1502,2002,2502,3002,3502,4002,4502,500Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands)December 2005– March 2013Overall employment levels are nearing the levels last seen in 2008, but we still have a long way to getback to pre-recession levels.Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)
  4. 4. Professional/BusinessAnnual Percent Change:Employment in High-Paying Sectors in Metro Atlanta-8.0-6.0-4.0- FinancePercentChange-12.0-10.0-8.0-6.0-4.0- Wholesale TradePercentChange-10.0-8.0-6.0-4.0- in key sectors continues to remain in positive territory, on a year-over-year basis.Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)
  5. 5. Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims-5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000Jan-01May-01Sep-01Jan-02May-02Sep-02Jan-03May-03Sep-03Jan-04May-04Sep-04Jan-05May-05Sep-05Jan-06May-06Sep-06Jan-07May-07Sep-07Jan-08May-08Sep-08Jan-09May-09Sep-09Jan-10May-10Sep-10Jan-11May-11Sep-11Jan-12May-12Sep-12Jan-13Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due toseasonal layoffs after the holidays. But the latest month, March, has the lowest number of claims sinceFebruary 2008.Source:GA DOL
  6. 6. Monthly Building Permits – Metro Atlanta01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12Mar-13Source: SOCDSThe metro Atlanta housing market is still weak. There were 1,621 residential permits issued in March ofthis year. In contrast, there were almost 7,300 residential permits issued in March of 2006.
  7. 7. Total Building Permits Issues – 2013 YTD (Through March)Top 15 Metros0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000Las VegasBostonPhiladelphiaChicagoOrlandoCharlotteMiamiAtlantaPhoenixLos AngelesAustinWashington DCNew YorkDallasHoustonAlthough permitting activity is WAY off when compared to pre-recession, metro Atlanta still ranks 8th inthe nation in the number of residential permits issued thus far in 2013.Source: SOCDS
  8. 8. County-By County: Total Building Permits Issued2011-2013 (Through March)02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000201120122013Most jurisdictions have seen more permitting activity in 2013 than in the previous year (through March).Fulton County has issued, by far, the most residential permits thus far in 2013.Source: SOCDS
  9. 9. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current8090100110120130140Jan-00Jul-00Jan-01Jul-01Jan-02Jul-02Jan-03Jul-03Jan-04Jul-04Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Home prices have rebounded nicely since the beginning of 2012, although the gains have leveled offsomewhat of late. Still, home prices in metro Atlanta continue to trade below January 2000 prices, wipingout a decade of housing price gains.Source: Case-Shiller Index
  10. 10. -55.0%-45.2%-43.7%-42.7%-36.6%-34.4%-34.3%-33.5%-32.1%-29.6%-28.9%-27.6%-26.7%-26.4%-24.9%-24.0%-19.6%-15.7%-15.4%-5.1%-4.5%-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0%NV-Las VegasFL-MiamiAZ-PhoenixFL-TampaMI-DetroitCA-San DiegoIL-ChicagoCA-Los AngelesCA-San FranciscoComposite-10GA-AtlantaMN-MinneapolisWA-SeattleDC-WashingtonNY-New YorkOR-PortlandOH-ClevelandMA-BostonNC-CharlotteCO-DenverTX-DallasCase-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)Home Price Decline Since PeakWhile a 29 percent decline in Atlanta home prices is not good, it is not as bad as the decline insome other metro areas, particularly in the previously “hot” coastal markets and westernboomtowns.Source: Case-Shiller Index
  11. 11. Foreclosure Filings (Through March)2010 – 201301,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002010201120122013In every county, foreclosures are lower in 2013, thus far, when compared to the same period inthe previous three years.Source: Equity Depot
  12. 12. Office Vacancy Rate – Metro Atlanta2000 - current0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20001Q20002Q20003Q20004Q20011Q20012Q20013Q20014Q20021Q20022Q20023Q20024Q20031Q20032Q20033Q20034Q20041Q20042Q20043Q20044Q20051Q20052Q20053Q20054Q20061Q20062Q20063Q20064Q20071Q20072Q20073Q20074Q20081Q20082Q20083Q20084Q20091Q20092Q20093Q20094Q20101Q20102Q20103Q20104Q20111Q20112Q20113Q20114Q20121Q20122Q20123Q20124Q20131QThe recession earlier this decade drove up office vacancy rates for the next few years, andthey never returned to their pre‐recession levels. Vacancy rates continue to be higher than thehighest levels experienced during the last recession. However, vacancy is trending slightly downward.Source: CoStar
  13. 13. (3,000,000)(2,000,000)(1,000,000)01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,00020001Q20002Q20003Q20004Q20011Q20012Q20013Q20014Q20021Q20022Q20023Q20024Q20031Q20032Q20033Q20034Q20041Q20042Q20043Q20044Q20051Q20052Q20053Q20054Q20061Q20062Q20063Q20064Q20071Q20072Q20073Q20074Q20081Q20082Q20083Q20084Q20091Q20092Q20093Q20094Q20101Q20102Q20103Q20104Q20111Q20112Q20113Q20114Q20121Q20122Q20123Q20124Q20131QTotal Net Absorption of Office Space – Metro Atlanta2000 - currentThere have now been eight consecutive quarters with positive net absorption (more occupied officespace at the end of the quarter compared to the beginning). Absorption levels still are significantlylower than they were pre-recession, however.Source: CoStar
  14. 14. Number of Retail Buildings Under Construction– Metro Atlanta2000 - current05010015020025030035040045050020001Q20002Q20003Q20004Q20011Q20012Q20013Q20014Q20021Q20022Q20023Q20024Q20031Q20032Q20033Q20034Q20041Q20042Q20043Q20044Q20051Q20052Q20053Q20054Q20061Q20062Q20063Q20064Q20071Q20072Q20073Q20074Q20081Q20082Q20083Q20084Q20091Q20092Q20093Q20094Q20101Q20102Q20103Q20104Q20111Q20112Q20113Q20114Q20121Q20122Q20123Q20124Q20131QAs with residential building, construction of retail buildings is also way down whencompared to historical trends, with practically no construction activity observedsince the end of 2008.Source: CoStar