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Atlanta Regional Commission
For more information, contact:
mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com
All Things Big and Small:
Employ...
About the Data
• Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): We used BLS data to explore up to date
industry sector change in Atlant...
What the data tell us…
• Overall, Atlanta performs well when compared to
other U.S. metros in terms of job change and
empl...
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Total Change
3.2
2
1.2
3.4
2.1
2.6
3.1
1.5
1
3 3
1.8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
% Change(000s...
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Metro Atlanta's Relative Strengths Compared to Other Large Metros
(Location Quotient by ...
Atlanta Boston Chicago Dallas Houston
Los
Angeles Miami New York Philadelphia Phoenix
San
Francisco Washington
Constructio...
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-...
This shows total employment in metro Atlanta from January 2000 to May 2015. The pre-recession peak
employment of 2.48 mill...
This chart looks at business firm size, specifically small firms, as small local businesses are critical to a
sustainable ...
Payroll by Business Firm Size
19.1%
20.6% 21.5%
15.6%
20.9%
14.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Atlanta DC Phoenix Dal...
17.7%
21.0%
19.3%
21.2%
28.6%
19.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
% Employees in Medium Sized Business fir...
Distribution of Employees by Business Firm Size in Metro Atlanta
This chart shows how the distribution of employees has ch...
Percent Change in the Number of
Employees from 2000-2014, by County
74%
70% 71%
79%
58%
69%
74%
61%
73% 72%
81%
67%
69%
72...
Now we will look at the number of business establishments by size (instead of the number of employees
by business firm siz...
Because the definition of metro Atlanta changed in 2012, we can only look at growth in the number of
business establishmen...
129,130
133,087
136,724
134,338
129,429
128,177
127,305
129,287
130,704
122,000
124,000
126,000
128,000
130,000
132,000
13...
Distribution of Business Establishments, by Zip Code
The map on the left shows the total number of business establishments...
Change in the total number of Business Establishments,
2005-2013
This map illustrates the
number of change in
business est...
Focus on small Business Establishments (1-9
Employees), 2013
This map highlights those Zip
Codes where at least 90
percent...
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July Snapshot: Employment Trends & Establishment Growth in Metro Atlanta

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July Snapshot 2015

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July Snapshot: Employment Trends & Establishment Growth in Metro Atlanta

  1. 1. Atlanta Regional Commission For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com All Things Big and Small: Employment Trends & Business Establishment Growth in Metro Atlanta
  2. 2. About the Data • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): We used BLS data to explore up to date industry sector change in Atlanta and the U.S. as a whole. • Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI): A set of economic indicators including employment, job creating, earnings, and other measures of employment flows. We have used the QWI to study and compare business and employment patterns in metro Atlanta to other peer metro areas. • Zip Code Business Patterns: We used Census business establishment/ firm numbers to look at total establishments and change in establishments on the Zip Code level. Note: We mention both firms and establishments numerous times throughout the report. There are subtle differences, but, in general, when using these terms, we simply mean “businesses.” To learn more about the difference between firms and establishments, please visit: https://ask.census.gov/faq.php?id=5000&faqId=487
  3. 3. What the data tell us… • Overall, Atlanta performs well when compared to other U.S. metros in terms of job change and employment. Atlanta ranks 2nd in relative job change against 12 other metros over the past year. • Metro Atlanta exceeded its pre-recession employment peak in May 2014, finally digging out of the hole the Great Recession wrought. • At the county level, Forsyth, Henry, and Paulding counties have had the highest relative increase in employees from 2000 to 2013. • At the Zip Code level, areas in North Fulton, Forsyth, and Hall Counties have the largest increase in business establishments since 2005. Specifically, a Suwanee Zip Code has seen the largest increase. • The Zip Codes with the highest concentrations of small businesses are all clustered along the exurban fringes of the region.
  4. 4. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Total Change 3.2 2 1.2 3.4 2.1 2.6 3.1 1.5 1 3 3 1.8 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 % Change(000s) Job Change, May 2014- May 2015 Metro Atlanta is adding jobs at a nice clip recently, especially compared with the 11 other large metros in the nation. The chart on the left shows total numbers and the chart on the right shows percentages. For total jobs added, between May 2014 and May 2015, metro Atlanta has added the fourth-most jobs. Metro Atlanta ranks second in percent change of jobs over the past year. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  5. 5. 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Metro Atlanta's Relative Strengths Compared to Other Large Metros (Location Quotient by Super Sector) Strengths of Metro Atlanta’s Economy We examined metro Atlanta’s strengths by comparing the percent of employment by each “super sector” in metro Atlanta to the percentage of employment in each sector in the other 11 large metro areas. Each value above one means that metro Atlanta is relatively stronger in that sector. So Information; Trade, Transportation & Utilities, and Professional & Business Services are metro Atlanta’s relative strengths, according to this analysis. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE: For comparison purposes, Mining and Logging are included with Construction
  6. 6. Atlanta Boston Chicago Dallas Houston Los Angeles Miami New York Philadelphia Phoenix San Francisco Washington Construction 2 1 1 7 7 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 Manufacturing 7 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 7 10 5 10 Trade, trans., and utilities 5 9 4 4 3 5 7 6 5 7 7 4 Information 10 5 7 10 5 9 8 8 9 9 2 9 Financial activities 4 7 9 2 8 8 3 8 6 5 10 8 Professional and bus. services 3 2 2 3 6 6 5 5 10 4 1 3 Education and health services 6 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 4 3 9 1 Leisure and hospitality 1 8 5 1 1 4 3 4 3 6 4 5 Other services 9 3 8 8 9 3 6 3 2 1 6 7 Government 8 5 6 6 4 7 10 7 8 8 8 6 Ranking the Sectors in Each of the 12 Largest Metros: (% Change, May 2014-May 2015) This chart shows which sectors have increased the most in each of the largest 12 metros by ranking the percent increase in each sector. In metro Atlanta, for example, Leisure and Hospitality as well as Construction experienced the largest percent gains in employment. In the table above, greens indicate the largest percent increases, while reds indicate the smallest increases, or, in some cases, declines. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE: For comparison purposes, Mining and Logging are included with Construction
  7. 7. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Year-Over-Year % Change: Total Employment 2008-Present ATL U.S. This chart indicates that Atlanta (Blue trend line) is outperforming the U.S. (Red trend line) in terms of year-over-year employment change. Atlanta’s growth in employment has outpaced the U.S.’s employment growth for almost three years now. Job Change, 2008- Present Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  8. 8. This shows total employment in metro Atlanta from January 2000 to May 2015. The pre-recession peak employment of 2.48 million jobs occurred in December 2007, the month the Great Recession officially began. Metro Atlanta exceeded that pre-recession peak in May 2014, and today is trading well above the December 2007 number. Total Employment, 2000-2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2000.0 2100.0 2200.0 2300.0 2400.0 2500.0 2600.0 2700.0 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Pre-recession peak employment: December 2007
  9. 9. This chart looks at business firm size, specifically small firms, as small local businesses are critical to a sustainable and healthy economy. For this snapshot, small business firms are defined as firms with 0- 49 employees. Of these metros, Atlanta has the second highest percentage of small firms at 23.8%. It is right behind Chicago with 24.4% of firms that are considered “small”. Business Firms by Size 23.80% 24.40% 22.10% 22.50% 21.10% 21.50% 19.00% 20.00% 21.00% 22.00% 23.00% 24.00% 25.00% Atlanta Chicago Dallas Houston Washington Phoenix % Employees in Small Business Firms, 2014 (Q2) Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators (All years show data for Q2)
  10. 10. Payroll by Business Firm Size 19.1% 20.6% 21.5% 15.6% 20.9% 14.6% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Atlanta DC Phoenix Dallas Chicago Houston % Payroll going to Small Business Firms (0-49 Employees) While Atlanta has the second largest percentage of people working in small business firms, QWI payroll numbers tell us something slightly different. In terms of the percent of payroll going to small firms, we fall to 4th in ranking. These data suggest that even though many of our employees work in small firms, they are just not paid as much in comparison to other metros. Of course, cost-of-living differences among the metros explain most of this variation. Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators (All years show data for Q2)
  11. 11. 17.7% 21.0% 19.3% 21.2% 28.6% 19.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% % Employees in Medium Sized Business firms, 2014 58.5% 54.6% 58.6% 56.3% 50.8% 58.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% % Employees in Large Business Firms, 2014 Distribution of Employees in Medium and Large Business Firms- Atlanta and other U.S. Metros Medium Business firms are defined as 50-499 employees and large business firms are defined as 500+ employees In comparing business firm size across large metros, there isn’t much variation of the percentage of employees working for medium or large firms. In general, Atlanta has a lower percentage of employees working in medium-sized firms, and a slightly higher percentage of employees working in large firms. Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators (All years show data for Q2)
  12. 12. Distribution of Employees by Business Firm Size in Metro Atlanta This chart shows how the distribution of employees has changed from 2000 to 2014. Due to the recession, not surprisingly, each firm size lost employees around 2010. But businesses have recovered nicely since 2010 as firms of all sizes have more employees in 2014 than in 2000. 465,430 362,422 1,187,053 457,285 340,443 1,121,817 508,715 378,287 1,250,657 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 Small (0-49 Employees) Medium (50-499 Employees) Large (500+ Employees) 2000 2010 2014 Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators (All years show data for Q2)
  13. 13. Percent Change in the Number of Employees from 2000-2014, by County 74% 70% 71% 79% 58% 69% 74% 61% 73% 72% 81% 67% 69% 72% 80% 73% 81% 64% 65% 74% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% We used QWI data to determine the percent change in the number of employees from 2000 to 2014 in each county. We can see that the largest increases in employees are in Forsyth, Henry and Paulding counties, three counties that experienced tremendous population growth during the 2000s as well. Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators
  14. 14. Now we will look at the number of business establishments by size (instead of the number of employees by business firm size) using data from the U.S. Census’ Business Patterns program. Because the data are different, the groupings we use will be different. But, as the pie chart shows, the VAST majority of business establishments employ fewer than 20 employees (almost 86 percent). 57.5% 16.4% 11.6% 8.8% 3.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Number of Business Establishments, 2013 1 to 4 employees 5 to 9 employees 10 to 19 employees 20 to 49 employees 50 to 99 employees 100 to 249 employees 250 to 499 employees 500 to 999 employees 1,000 employees or more Number of Business Establishments by Size, Metro Atlanta (2013) Source: Business Patterns, U.S Census
  15. 15. Because the definition of metro Atlanta changed in 2012, we can only look at growth in the number of business establishments between 2012 and 2013. As the chart and table show, there isn’t a lot of difference in the rates of growth among the different business establishment sizes, although those employing one to four employees had the slowest rate of growth. Change in the Number of Business Establishments by Size, Metro Atlanta, 2012 - 2013 0.8% 1.1% 1.6% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1 to 4 employees 5 to 9 employees All Other Establishment Sizes Percent Change in the Number of Business Establishments 2013 2012 Change % Change 1 to 4 employees 75,789 75,168 621 0.8% 5 to 9 employees 21,617 21,387 230 1.1% All Other Establishment Sizes 34,377 33,834 543 1.6% Source: Business Patterns, U.S Census
  16. 16. 129,130 133,087 136,724 134,338 129,429 128,177 127,305 129,287 130,704 122,000 124,000 126,000 128,000 130,000 132,000 134,000 136,000 138,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 This chart analyzes the total number of business establishments in the 20-county Atlanta region between 2005-2013. As the line shows, the Great Recession destroyed many business establishments, and the 20-county area has yet to recover. There are roughly 6,000 fewer establishments today than in 2007. The good news, however, is that there are about 3,400 more establishments today than during the nadir of 2011. * Zip Codes do not adhere to county boundaries, so we included only Zip Codes that have their center point in one of the 20 counties. Total number of Business Establishments in 20- County Atlanta Region Zip Codes*: 2005-2013 Source: Business Patterns, U.S Census
  17. 17. Distribution of Business Establishments, by Zip Code The map on the left shows the total number of business establishments in 2013, with the bulk of the establishments located in the northern parts of the region, between I-75 and I-85. There is a Zip Code in Henry County that has among the most number of establishments in the region as well. The map on the right shows the number of establishments per 1,000 people. Although there isn’t much difference between the two, the areas with the most establishments per 1,000 people are clustered in the region’s most affluent areas (North Fulton, Buckhead, Decatur and Fayette County). Total Business Establishments, 2013 Total Business Establishments per 1,000 Population, 2013 Source: Business Patterns, U.S Census, via Neighborhood Nexus
  18. 18. Change in the total number of Business Establishments, 2005-2013 This map illustrates the number of change in business establishments from 2005 to 2013. As the map shows, the most dramatic increases the number of establishments are in North Fulton (Alpharetta/Johns Creek area), Forsyth, and Gwinnett (Suwanee/Duluth areas). This map reflects earlier findings in the percent change in employees in each county. Forsyth County and the largest increase in establishments AND the largest percent increase in employees. Business Growth, 2005- 2013 Source: Business Patterns, U.S Census, via Neighborhood Nexus
  19. 19. Focus on small Business Establishments (1-9 Employees), 2013 This map highlights those Zip Codes where at least 90 percent of all business establishments have fewer than 10 employees – so where the heaviest concentrations of small businesses are located. As the map shows, all of these Zip Codes are located on the exurban fringes of the region, which makes some sense given that many small businesses may not require “foot traffic”, thus they don’t necessarily need to be in heavily populated areas. Highest Concentrations of Small Businesses, 2013 Source: Business Patterns, U.S Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

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