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MAPD 2010 - Strategic energy & climate planning


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MAPD 2010 - Strategic energy & climate planning

  1. 1. Chris PowickiPrincipal,Water Energy & EcologyInformation Services
  2. 2. Outline • Context • Stakeholder Process – Consensus Visions & Goals • Technology Strategy – Inventory – Transport, Heating & Electricity Photo Credit: NASA/Dan Burbank Modules Design Credit: Hooper Design – Priority Projects & Initiatives • Recommendations
  3. 3. Energy Present• Air & Water Pollution• International Conflict• Climate Change• Global Competition• Resource Depletion• Economic Vulnerability Credits: REUTERS/Daniel Beltra; AP/Gerald Herbert; GETTY/Mira Oberman
  4. 4. Policy & Technology Context – Global & FederalUNFCCC• “…prevent dangerous anthropogenic BAU (6°C+) interference…”Copenhagen (~3°C) (~2°C)Accord• “…the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius…” Cape & Islands implications: Annual emissions must stop increasing, then sharply decrease, necessitating technological transformation.
  5. 5. Policy & Technology Context – State Climate Policy • Reduce emissions by 10-25% below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050 Renewable Energy Policy • Renewable Fuels (RFS): 5% by 2013 • Renewable Generation (RPS): 15% by 2020 Renewable Energy Targets (Gov. Patrick) • Deploy 250 MW of PV by 2017 • Deploy 2000 MW of wind by 2020 Efficiency & Supply Policy • Reduce total consumption by 10% by 2017 and Massachusetts State House building fossil fuel use by 10% by 2020 • Meet 25% of electric load with demand-side measures by 2020 (but net-metered generation is capped)
  6. 6. CIRenew “Beyond Cape Wind” Process &CIGoGreen Goals2005 • “Beyond Cape Wind” Process brings stakeholders to table – “Beyond” = in addition to … or instead of Cape Wind2006 • Facilitated activities spark dialogue and establish “Points of Consensus” – Control costs, improve security, increase independence, create jobs, protect character, reduce emissions – Maximize conservation and efficiency, increase reliance on Cape & Islands renewables, avoid nuclear and coal, localize benefits Renewable Energy Collaborative,2007 • Visioning establishes long-term goals “See I Renew” – Reduce direct fossil fuel use for heating and transport by 50%, relative to baseline (2007) – Harness local renewable resources to meet 100% of net annual electricity needs2008 • Cape & Islands Go Green (CIGoGreen) report provides Cape & Islands Go Green, “See I Go Green!” qualitative action plans and identifies near-term priorities2009 • EPRI-funded Technology Strategy project defines immediate research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) needs and quantitative action plans
  7. 7. CIGoGreen Goals – Technology Implications • Reduce direct fossil fuel use for heating and transport by 50%, relative to baseline – Future consumption, in terms of energy content (MMBtu), is capped based on 2007 use – Conservation, efficiency, and fuel switching are required across both sectors – Fuel switching options include lower-carbon fossil fuels, renewables, and electrification • Harness local renewable resources to meet 100% of net annual electricity needs – Future consumption is not capped – Conservation, efficiency, and net-metered generation are needed to reduce needs – Large-scale renewables deployment is required – Load growth is necessary to allow for electrification and help decarbonize transport and heating sectors
  8. 8. Technology Strategy Elements
  9. 9. Inventory• Energy Supply & Use Cape & Islands Total Energy by Sector & Source, – Fossil Fuels 2007 (MMBtu) – Nuclear – Renewables 25,000,000 – Canal & SEMASS Plants 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000• Energy-Only CO2 Emissions 5,000,000 0• Energy Prices & Bills Electricity 1 Transportation Heating Canal Plant• Primary Sources – EPRI – NStar, National Grid, Cape Light Compact, ISO-NE – Vineyard Energy Project, Mirant, Cape Air, Mass Coastal Railroad, Cape Power Systems – MTC RET, DOER, RMV, DOR, DEP – U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Census Bureau
  10. 10. 2007 Inventory – Cape & Islands DependenceFossil Fuels - 91% Cape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy:1. Gasoline Extent of Dependence, 20072. Natural gas3. Heating oil 4% 5%4. Diesel5. Aviation Fossil6. Propane Nuclear RenewablesNuclear Power – 4% 91%Renewables – 5%1. Bioenergy2. Hydro Fuels derived from crude oil supply vehicles,3. Wind ferries, and planes; heat homes; run power4. Solar plants …
  11. 11. 2007 Inventory – Cape & Islands Consumption Energy Consumption • Per capita – 6,100 kgoe – Less than US (8,367 kgoe) – Greater than Massachusetts (5,775 kgoe) – 3 times the world average (2,000 kgoe) • Total (60.9 TBtu) exceeds that of entire nations in developing world Energy Use (KTOE)Cape & Islands Congo PopulationCape & Islands Congo Credits: WRI, CIA
  12. 12. 2007 Inventory – Cape & Islands Emissions Energy-Related CO2 Emissions These figures are for energy consumption only; they do not reflect life-cycle emissions associated with resource use, emissions from Canal Plant, emissions • Per capita - 16.0 MT attributable to combustion of MSW, etc. – Greater than Massachusetts – Less than United States (19.1 MT) – Global Top 20 • Total (3.9 million MT) exceeds that of many large, undeveloped countries Credit: Wikipedia Commons based 2006 CDIAC/UN Data
  13. 13. Greening Transport: Major ChallengesBig Numbers• 2007: ~250,000 LDVs• 2020: ~300,000 LDVsSlow Turnover• Average vehicle lifetime: >10 yearsOther Barriers 50% Reduction Target: 10.9 TBtu• Limitations of current technologies and fuels• Consumer desires - “Cash for Clunkers” experience• Mixed signals - capital costs vs. life-cycle savings• Auto-centric culture• Chicken vs. egg for advanced technologies
  14. 14. Greening Transport: Technology Priorities High-Efficiency Vehicles • Gas-Electric Hybrids • Diesels • Diesel Hybrids Biofuels • Biodiesel • Advanced Ethanol with Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) Electric Vehicles • Plug-In Hybrids • All-Electric Vehicles Car-Free Travel • Passenger Rail • Intermodal Transit • Green Growth
  15. 15. Greening Transport: Conclusions50% Scenario Cape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy: Possible Mix of Light- Duty Vehicles for 50% Fossil Fuel Reduction 2%• CAFE standards, gas-electric 8% 25% hybrids, clean diesels, and 25% FFVs are important but insufficient• Greening growth has little 20% impact in developed areas 20% Plug Hybrid E85 Biodiesel Hybrid Internal Combustion Car Free• Broad portfolio of new technologies needed – High-efficiency LDVs Progress depends on major – Advanced biofuels technology advances, plus local abilities to plan for and – Plug hybrids and all-electrics accelerate deployment. – Car-free travel – Efficiency/biofuels in trucking, air, rail, marine, etc.
  16. 16. Greening Buildings: Major ChallengesInefficient Stock• Tens of thousands of buildings were constructed years ago, for seasonal living, and/or to inadequate standardsInadequate Capacity• Turning energy audits into action a challenge due to institutional, financing, and workforce limitations 50% Reduction Target: 10.1 TBtuOther Barriers• Mixed signals – installation costs vs. life-cycle savings• Split incentives• Sole-source contracting in efficiency programs
  17. 17. Greening Buildings: Technology PrioritiesBuilding Envelope Solar• Air Sealing & Insulation • Hot Water• Windows & Doors • Heating• Deep RetrofitsHeating Systems Electrification• Replacements • Geothermal Heat• Low-Carbon Fuel Switch Pumps• Cogeneration • Air-Source Heat PumpsBioheat• Biodiesel• Wood & Pellets
  18. 18. Greening Buildings: Conclusions50% Scenario FOSSIL FUEL REDUCTION “WEDGES” Technology Quantity• 30% – air sealing, Building Envelope & Heating 125,000+ weatherization, heating Biodiesel Blend in Heating Oil 30,000 system upgrades in every Solar Thermal (DHW) 25,000 building Solar Thermal (Heating & DHW) 8,000 Air-Source Heat Pump 8,000• 8% – large (20%+) biodiesel Biomass (Pellet/Wood Stoves) 6,000 fraction in all remaining Deep Retrofits 6,000 heating oil Geothermal Heat Pump 2,000• 12% – six additional “wedges” Challenge lies not in technology but in deployment; innovative institutions, policies, and funding and financing methods needed.
  19. 19. Greening Power: Major ChallengesTechnology Limitations• Supply, delivery, utilization are not smart• Siting projects is extremely difficult• Wind and solar have low energy density• Biomass fuel supply insufficient• Offshore wind limited to shallow water at present• Wave and tidal not commercially available today• Costs exceed those fossil generation
  20. 20. Greening Power: Technology PrioritiesEfficiency Solar• End Uses • Consumer Sited• Demand Response • Supply SideOffshore Wind Cogeneration• Shallow Water • Fossil• Transitional • Biopower• Deep WaterWind Ocean• Supply Side • Tidal• Consumer Sited • WaveBioenergy Green Grid• Landfill/Digester Gas • T&D & Interfaces• Waste to Energy • Fast-Response Supply • Storage
  21. 21. Greening Power: Conclusions• Conservation, efficiency, solar, and onshore wind are not enough• Cape Wind meets needs only if sales decline by about 25%• “Beyond Cape Wind” deployment required … • To meet stable or Challenge lies both in technology growing load and in deployment; community • To electrify transport: benefits are critical. (~100 MW for 25%) • To achieve state goal: “2000 MW by 2020”
  22. 22. Greening Power – Community Benefits“Visions of Success” - 6/18/09 Forum• Community-based siting, planning, construction, and operations• Creation of jobs and additional economic activity• Beneficial effects on security, climate change issues• Stabilization/reduction of electric rates through long-term contracts• Minimal or no adverse impacts on community character and cultural values• No adverse impacts on navigation and sustainable fishing• Protection of habitats and species• Positive effects on real estate market and recreational fishing• Revenues for addressing energy justice and environmental issues Talisman Energy
  23. 23. Greening Power: Offshore Planning• Federal offshore renewables task force established for waters outside state limit• State Ocean Management Plan provides opportunities to determine siting and sizing and maximize community benefit for projects within state waters• Cape Cod Commission has established Ocean Management Planning DCPC – 24 turbines allowed (85 to 120 MW)• Provisional area, innovation zone present opportunities• Public outreach, education, engagement, empowerment must be part of future decision-making
  24. 24. Greening Power - Conclusions• Community- Cape & Islands Energy Technology Strategy: O ffshore Wind Turbines for Local Electricity Independence (3.6-MW Units; CF = 38%) scale projects could meet 40 35 current needs Number of Turbines 30 of most 25 20 individual 15 towns and the 10 islands 5 0 BREWSTER DENNIS BARNSTABLE MASHPEE O RLEANS WELLFLEET NANTUCKET BO URNE EASTHAM SANDWICH CHATHAM FALMO UTH HARWICH PRO VINCETO WN YARMO UTH TRURO VINEYARD• Localizing benefits is critical for future projects Community-Sized Projects Reduce Economies of Scale in state waters and beyond
  25. 25. Greening Power: Electrifying TransportPlug Hybrids & All-Electric Vehicles: 25% ofPersonal Vehicle Use in 2020• Nantucket: 12,500 MWh • ~4 MW offshore wind• Martha’s Vineyard: 18,000 MWh • ~6 MW offshore wind• Cape Cod: 265,000 MWh • ~80 MW offshore windIndividuals: 4400 kWh - 14,000 miles • 3.6 kW of rooftop PV Benefits: “fuel” cost savings of ~25 to 75%, no reliance on imports, no emissions Credits: Alison Alessi, GM, GE
  26. 26. Greening the Cape & Islands – Top 10 Projects& InitiativesGreening Buildings1. Building Envelope: Promote air sealing, insulation, and sustained action2. Heating Plant: Promote retrofits and lower-carbon fuel switching3. Solar Thermal: Promote domestic hot water and heating uses4. Electrification: Promote air-source and geothermal heat pumpsGreening Transportation5. Biofuels: Deploy infrastructure, explore algal biofuel production6. Electrification: Demonstrate charging stations at transport terminals7. Car-Free Travel: Restore passenger rail service to North Falmouth and HyannisGreening Power8. Offshore Renewables: Secure benefits from Cape Wind, develop community- based projects, and demonstrate advanced technologies9. Intelligrid: Integrate end uses and renewables with delivery infrastructure10. Infrastructure: Incorporate advanced technologies in wastewater and solid waste management Credits: Joan Muller, Toyota, BusinessWire, Chevy, GE, MCT, Pelamis
  27. 27. Greening the Cape & Islands – Benefits • Huge Progress Toward Independence – 70% • Major Cut in Carbon Emissions – 61% • Large Reductions in Energy Bills • Price Stabilization, Insulation Against Fuel & Carbon Markets • Job Creation
  28. 28. Recommendations for Strategic Energy/ClimatePlanning 1. Engage stakeholders, experts, and public – Educate and empower constituents 2. Set energy and climate objectives – Adopt vision and stretch goals 3. Get organized – Establish committee or task force addressing energy/climate response 4. Start counting – Develop comprehensive energy/emissions inventories across all sectors and at different scales 5. Explore opportunities – Evaluate conservation, efficiency, fuel switching, and renewable generation options and assess quantitative impacts 6. Identify priorities – Define discrete projects and initiatives 7. Engage stakeholders, experts, and public – Take coordinated action
  29. 29. Questions? Contact Information: Chris Powicki Principal, Water Energy & Ecology Information Services Brewster, MA 774.487.4614