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Demographic and Enrolment Trends 2013

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Demographic and Enrolment Trends 2013

  1. 1. DEMOGRAPHICS AND ENROLMENT TRENDSAvon Maitland District School Board March 26, 2013 Presented By: Jack Ammendolia, Associate Director Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
  2. 2. Population Trends The National Perspective •The Canadian population grew by almost 12% between 2001 and 2011. • Canada had a higher rate of growth between 2001 and 2011 than any other of the G8 countries. • About 2/3’s of Canada’s growth was due to international migration – the majority of growth in the United States is due to natural increase. While the country continues to experience overall population growth, Canada has been experiencing long term enrolment decline. The number of children aged 4-13 declined by more than 7% between 2001 and 2011.1
  3. 3. Ontario The Province of Ontario’s overall population continues to grow. The Province grew by more than the National average from 2001-2006 (6.6%) as it had for more than a decade. This represented a population increase of about 750,000 people– approximately half of Canada’s total population growth. Between 2006 and 2011 the Province’s population continued togrow but by less than 6% - the first time in more than a decade thatit grew less than the National average. Ontario’s population growth is largely driven by international migration – between 2001 and 2006, 600,000 immigrants settled in Ontario.2
  4. 4. Provincial School Aged PopulationTrends CENSUS POPULATIONS Change 1996- Change Change Age 1996 2001 2001 2006 2001-2006 2011 2006-2011 0-3 581,745 529,145 -52,600 535,210 6,065 560,830 25,620 4-13 1,490,495 1,547,950 57,455 1,507,260 -40,690 1,459,685 -47,575 14-18 702,110 776,600 74,490 838,420 61,820 847,250 8,8301800000160000014000001200000 19961000000 2001 800000 2006 600000 2011 400000 200000 0 0-3 4-13 14-183
  5. 5. Ontario - What To Expect? Ontario births have started to increase over the past several years after more than a decade of significant declines. Between 2000 and 2005 births increased by 5%. Since 2005 births have increased by about 1% per year on average – similar to the population increase. Ontario Live Births 155,000 NUMBER OF BIRTHS 150,000 145,000 140,000 135,000 130,000 125,000 120,000 115,000 1991 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YEAR The increasing trend in the number of births is promising – it should be noted however, that current births are still more than 7% lower than levels from the early 1990’s4
  6. 6. AMDSB Demographic Trends Board Wide 2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of Population Data Census Total Census Total Census TotalTotal Population 132,319 132,505 133,755Pre-School Population (0-3) 6,399 4.8% 6,013 4.5% 5,994 4.5%Elementary School Population (4-13) 19,144 14.5% 17,206 13.0% 15,853 11.9%Secondary School Population (14-18) 10,069 7.6% 10,019 7.6% 9,268 6.9%Population Over 18 Years of Age 96,708 73.1% 99,268 74.9% 102,640 76.7%Females Aged 25-44 17,358 13.1% 16,079 12.1% 14,718 11.0% 2001-2006 2006-2011 Absolute % Share Absolute % Share Population Data Change Change Change Change Change ChangeTotal Population 186 0.1% 1,249 0.9%Pre-School Population (0-3) -386 -6.0% -0.3% -19 -0.3% -0.1%Elementary School Population (4-13) -1,938 -10.1% -1.5% -1,353 -7.9% -1.1%Secondary School Population (14-18) -50 -0.5% 0.0% -750 -7.5% -0.6%Population Over 18 Years of Age 2,560 2.6% 1.8% 3,372 3.4% 1.8%Females Aged 25-44 -1,279 -7.4% -1.0% -1,361 -8.5% -1.1% 5
  7. 7. Residential Dwellings/Population Per Unit & Participation Rate 2001 2006 2011 2001 - 2006 2006-2011Dwelling Unit Data Census Census Census Change % Change %Total Occupied Dwellings: 49,506 51,034 52,962 1,528 3.1% 1,928 3.8%Total Population/Dwelling: 2.67 2.60 2.53 -0.08 -2.9% -0.07 -2.7%Elementary Pop./Dwelling: 0.39 0.34 0.30 -0.05 -12.8% -0.04 -11.2%Secondary Pop./Dwelling: 0.20 0.20 0.18 -0.01 -3.5% -0.02 -10.9% 2001 2006 2011 Diff. 01-06 Diff. 06-11Total Elementary Enrolment - Headcount 13,152 11,618 10,499 - 1,533 - 1,119Total Elementary Aged Population 19,144 17,206 15,853 - 1,938 - 1,353Elementary Participation Rates 68.7% 67.5% 66.2% -1.2% -1.3% 6
  8. 8. Historical Elementary Enrolment HISTORICAL 2001/02 - 2006/07 - 2006/07 2011/12 GRADES Historical Historical Historical Absolute % Absolute % (Headcount) 2001/2002 2006/2007 2011/2012 Change Change Change Change JK 923 940 973 17 1.8% 34 3.6% SK 1,175 1,042 1,004 -133 -11.3% -38 -3.6% 1 1,380 1,047 1,021 -334 -24.2% -26 -2.4% 6 1,435 1,256 1,043 -179 -12.4% -213 -17.0% 7 1,384 1,247 1,104 -137 -9.9% -143 -11.5% 8 1,312 1,240 1,211 -72 -5.5% -29 -2.3% Total Enrolment 13,152 11,618 10,499 (1,534) -11.7% (1,119) -9.6% GSR 1.19 1.24 1.12 0.05 4.1% -0.12 -9.4% CAPACITY 14,149 14,149 13,458 UTILIZATION 93% 82% 78%7
  9. 9. Projected Elementary Enrolment PROJECTED ENROLMENT 2013/14 - 2027/28 Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 2013 2017 2022 2027 Absolute % /14 /18 /23 /28 Change Change Total Existing 10,170 9,917 9,579 9,314 New Pupils 55 323 682 1,019 Total Pupils 10,226 10,240 10,261 10,333 107 1% New Units 677 2,172 4,183 6,169 Average Yield 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 CAPACITY 12,261 12,124 12,124 12,124 UTILIZATION 83% 84% 85% 85%8
  10. 10. Avon Maitland District School Board - STRATFORD Stratford Elementary Boundaries Elementary Review Boundaries Central Perth ESNorth West Huron Area $ Elementary Schools Downie Central PS North East Huron Area Stratford Elementary Boundaries Hamlet PS North Perth Area Stratford Central (Catchment) Milverton PS Central Huron Area Stratford Northwestern (Catchment) North Easthope PS West Perth Area Anne Hathaway Romeo PS South Huron Area Avon PS Shakespeare PS South Perth Area Bedford PS Sprucedale PS $ Milverton $ Upper Thames $ $ Central Perth $North Easthope Stratford Northwestern P. S. $ $ Bedford Avon $ Stratford Central P.S. $ $ Romeo $ Hamlet $ $ Shakespeare Sprucedale $ Anne Hathaway $ Downie Central . South Perth Centennial $ St. Marys D.C.&V.I. Elem $ Little Falls Elementary School $
  11. 11. Avon Maitland District School Board - STRATFORD FRENCH IMMERSION $ Elementary Schools Stratford Elementary Boundaries Bedford (FI) Downie Central PS th Area Hamlet PS Anne Hathaway (FI) Anne Hathaway Milverton PS North Easthope PS Avon PS Romeo PS Bedford PSerth Area Shakespeare PS Central Perth ES Sprucedale PSStratford Northwestern P. S. $ $ Bedford $ Avon $ Stratford Central P.S. $ Romeo $ Hamlet $ Shakespeare $ Anne Hathaway .
  12. 12. Stratford PA Demographic Trends 2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of Population Data Census Total Census Total Census TotalTotal Population 41,854 42,352 42,712Pre-School Population (0-3) 2,067 4.9% 1,869 4.4% 1,708 4.0%Elementary School Population (4-13) 5,716 13.7% 5,367 12.7% 4,852 11.4%Secondary School Population (14-18) 2,945 7.0% 2,887 6.8% 2,911 6.8%Population Over 18 Years of Age 31,126 74.4% 32,229 76.1% 33,240 77.8%Females Aged 25-44 5,912 14.1% 5,549 13.1% 5,087 11.9% 2001-2006 2006-2011 Absolute % Share Absolute % Share Population Data Change Change Change Change Change ChangeTotal Population 498 1.2% 360 0.9%Pre-School Population (0-3) -198 -9.6% -0.5% -161 -8.6% -0.4%Elementary School Population (4-13) -349 -6.1% -1.0% -515 -9.6% -1.3%Secondary School Population (14-18) -58 -2.0% -0.2% 24 0.8% 0.0%Population Over 18 Years of Age 1,103 3.5% 1.7% 1,012 3.1% 1.7%Females Aged 25-44 -363 -6.1% -1.0% -462 -8.3% -1.2%9
  13. 13. Enrolment & Utilization By Area Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change 2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012- 2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027 Total Exist 3,878 3,540 3,320 3,262 3,240 3,036 2,803 2,636 Total New 13 101 256 364Total (Existing + New) 3,878 3,540 3,320 3,262 3,253 3,137 3,059 3,000 -14% -8% New Units 78 199 681 1,353 1,969 Average Yield 0.17 0.18 0.21 0.20 Total Capacity 4175 4175 4175 4198 4175 4175 4175 4175 Total Utilization 93% 85% 80% 78% 78% 75% 73% 72%10
  14. 14. Avon Maitland District School Board - CENTRAL HURON Central Huron Elementary Boundaries Elementary Review Boundaries $ Elementary Schools Central Huron Elementary Boundaries Clinton PS Hullett Central PS Huron Centennial PS Seaforth PS ** School is, or will be closed ** Holmesville School: Enrolment split between Goderich, Clinton and Huron Centennial attendance boundaries Colborne** $ $$GDCI - ElementaryGoderich PS Hullett $ Holmesville** $ Clinton $ Seaforth $ Huron Centennial $ Upper Thames $ . Bluewater Coast ES $
  15. 15. Central Huron PA DemographicTrends 2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of Population Data Census Total Census Total Census TotalTotal Population 17,267 16,517 16,961Pre-School Population (0-3) 800 4.6% 667 4.0% 736 4.3%Elementary School Population (4-13) 2,443 14.1% 2,174 13.2% 1,884 11.1%Secondary School Population (14-18) 1,307 7.6% 1,280 7.7% 1,159 6.8%Population Over 18 Years of Age 12,716 73.6% 12,396 75.0% 13,182 77.7%Females Aged 25-44 2,099 12.2% 1,865 11.3% 1,734 10.2% 2001-2006 2006-2011 Absolute % Share Absolute % Share Population Data Change Change Change Change Change ChangeTotal Population -750 -4.3% 444 2.7%Pre-School Population (0-3) -133 -16.6% -0.6% 68 10.2% 0.3%Elementary School Population (4-13) -269 -11.0% -1.0% -290 -13.3% -2.1%Secondary School Population (14-18) -27 -2.1% 0.2% -121 -9.4% -0.9%Population Over 18 Years of Age -320 -2.5% 1.4% 786 6.3% 2.7%Females Aged 25-44 -234 -11.2% -0.9% -130 -7.0% -1.1%11
  16. 16. Enrolment & Utilization By Area Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change 2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012- 2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027 Total Exist 1,747 1,593 1,329 1,235 1,204 1,213 1,163 1,121 Total New 8 40 64 100Total (Existing + New) 1,747 1,593 1,329 1,235 1,211 1,252 1,228 1,221 -24% -1% New Units 33 67 209 402 601 Average Yield 0.23 0.23 0.18 0.18 Total Capacity 1857 1857 1857 1391 1391 1391 1391 1391 Total Utilization 94% 86% 72% 89% 87% 90% 88% 88%12
  17. 17. Avon Maitland District School Board - SOUTH PERTHNorth West Huron Area North East Huron Area South Perth Elementary Boundaries North Perth Area Elementary Review Boundaries Central Huron Area $ Elementary Schools West Perth Area South Perth Elementary Boundaries Stratford South Huron Area Little Falls AND St. Marys DVCI (shared boundary) South Perth Area South Perth Centennial ES Attendance Boundary $ Downie Central South Perth Centennial $ St. Marys D.C.&V.I. $ $ Little Falls Elementary School .
  18. 18. South Perth PA DemographicTrends 2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of Population Data Census Total Census Total Census TotalTotal Population 8,351 8,548 8,471Pre-School Population (0-3) 363 4.4% 411 4.8% 323 3.8%Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,301 15.6% 1,117 13.1% 963 11.4%Secondary School Population (14-18) 618 7.4% 694 8.1% 571 6.7%Population Over 18 Years of Age 6,068 72.7% 6,325 74.0% 6,614 78.1%Females Aged 25-44 1,137 13.6% 1,009 11.8% 906 10.7% 2001-2006 2006-2011 Absolute % Share Absolute % Share Population Data Change Change Change Change Change ChangeTotal Population 197 2.4% -77 -0.9%Pre-School Population (0-3) 48 13.1% 0.5% -88 -21.5% -1.0%Elementary School Population (4-13) -184 -14.2% -2.5% -154 -13.8% -1.7%Secondary School Population (14-18) 76 12.3% 0.7% -123 -17.7% -1.4%Population Over 18 Years of Age 258 4.2% 1.3% 289 4.6% 4.1%Females Aged 25-44 -128 -11.2% -1.8% -104 -10.3% -1.1%13
  19. 19. Enrolment & Utilization By Area Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change 2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012- 2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027 Total Exist 915 785 769 783 788 775 748 720 Total New 7 41 77 128Total (Existing + New) 915 785 769 783 795 816 825 848 -16% 8% New Units 42 88 274 507 739 Average Yield 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.18 Total Capacity 1039 1039 891 891 891 891 891 891 Total Utilization 88% 76% 86% 88% 89% 92% 93% 95%14
  20. 20. Avon Maitland District School Board - WEST PERTH North West Huron Area North East Huron Area North Perth Area West Perth Elementary Boundary Central Huron Area Elementary Review Boundaries West Perth Area Stratford $ Elementary Schools South Huron Area West Perth Elementary Boundaries South Perth Area Upper Thames $Seaforth Upper Thames $ $ Central Perth . H Downie Central $
  21. 21. West Perth PA Demographic Trends 2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of Population Data Census Total Census Total Census TotalTotal Population 8,874 8,630 8,717Pre-School Population (0-3) 464 5.2% 399 4.6% 470 5.4%Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,434 16.2% 1,222 14.2% 1,198 13.7%Secondary School Population (14-18) 749 8.4% 742 8.6% 617 7.1%Population Over 18 Years of Age 6,227 70.2% 6,267 72.6% 6,431 73.8%Females Aged 25-44 1,203 13.6% 1,066 12.4% 1,004 11.5% 2001-2006 2006-2011 Absolute % Share Absolute % Share Population Data Change Change Change Change Change ChangeTotal Population -244 -2.8% 87 1.0%Pre-School Population (0-3) -65 -14.1% -0.6% 72 17.9% 0.8%Elementary School Population (4-13) -212 -14.8% -2.0% -24 -1.9% -0.4%Secondary School Population (14-18) -7 -0.9% 0.2% -125 -16.8% -1.5%Population Over 18 Years of Age 40 0.6% 2.4% 164 2.6% 1.2%Females Aged 25-44 -137 -11.4% -1.2% -62 -5.8% -0.8%15
  22. 22. Enrolment & Utilization By Area Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change 2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012- 2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027 Total Exist 948 804 802 799 790 793 797 808 Total New 5 30 59 92Total (Existing + New) 948 804 802 799 795 822 856 899 -15% 13% New Units 20 40 135 275 425 Average Yield 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.23 Total Capacity 1122 1122 737 737 737 737 737 737 Total Utilization 84% 72% 109% 108% 108% 112% 116% 122%16
  23. 23. Avon Maitland District School Board - NORTH WEST HURON North West Huron Elementary Boundaries Elementary Review BoundariesNorth West Huron Area North East Huron Area $ Elementary Schools North Perth Area North West Huron Elementary Boundaries Central Huron Area Brookside PS West Perth Area GDCI and Goderich Elementary PS (shared boundary) Stratford South Huron Area ** School is, or will be closed South Perth Area ** Colborne School: Enrolment split between Brookside, GDCI, and Goderich Elementary attendance boundaries Brookside $ FE Madill Elementary School $ Wingham $ Turnberry Central PS $ $ Colborne** $$ Goderich PS GDCI - Elementary Hullett $ $ Holmesville** .
  24. 24. NW Huron PA Demographic Trends 2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of Population Data Census Total Census Total Census TotalTotal Population 13,301 13,816 14,043Pre-School Population (0-3) 568 4.3% 462 3.3% 489 3.5%Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,763 13.3% 1,664 12.0% 1,522 10.8%Secondary School Population (14-18) 998 7.5% 1,027 7.4% 924 6.6%Population Over 18 Years of Age 9,972 75.0% 10,662 77.2% 11,109 79.1%Females Aged 25-44 1,588 11.9% 1,521 11.0% 1,345 9.6% 2001-2006 2006-2011 Absolute % Share Absolute % Share Population Data Change Change Change Change Change ChangeTotal Population 515 3.9% 227 1.6%Pre-School Population (0-3) -105 -18.5% -0.9% 26 5.7% 0.1%Elementary School Population (4-13) -99 -5.6% -1.2% -142 -8.6% -1.2%Secondary School Population (14-18) 29 2.9% -0.1% -104 -10.1% -0.9%Population Over 18 Years of Age 690 6.9% 2.2% 447 4.2% 1.9%Females Aged 25-44 -67 -4.2% -0.9% -176 -11.6% -1.4%17
  25. 25. Enrolment & Utilization By Area Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change 2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012- 2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027 Total Exist 1,097 967 852 837 844 789 759 750 Total New 5 24 47 71Total (Existing + New) 1,097 967 852 837 849 812 805 821 -22% -2% New Units 28 55 172 331 494 Average Yield 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 Total Capacity 1343 1343 1185 1185 981 981 981 981 Total Utilization 82% 72% 72% 71% 87% 83% 82% 84%18
  26. 26. Avon Maitland District School Board - NORTH PERTH North Perth Elementary Boundaries Elementary Review Boundaries $ Elementary Schools North Perth Elementary Boundaries Elma Township PS Listowel Central PS Listowel Eastdale PS Wallace PS Mornington Central PS New North Perth Boundary North Woods (Previously Grey Central)hool $ $ Wingham PS $ Turnberry Central PS (Maitland River)ntral PS $ $ Wallace Listowel Central $ $Listowel Eastdale North Woods (Previously Grey Central) $ $Elma Township Mornington Central $ MilvertonMilverton $ .
  27. 27. North Perth PA Demographic Trends 2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of Population Data Census Total Census Total Census TotalTotal Population 17,231 17,172 17,688Pre-School Population (0-3) 971 5.6% 975 5.7% 1,078 6.1%Elementary School Population (4-13) 2,713 15.7% 2,493 14.5% 2,518 14.2%Secondary School Population (14-18) 1,479 8.6% 1,390 8.1% 1,340 7.6%Population Over 18 Years of Age 12,069 70.0% 12,314 71.7% 12,752 72.1%Females Aged 25-44 2,331 13.5% 2,144 12.5% 2,080 11.8% 2001-2006 2006-2011 Absolute % Share Absolute % Share Population Data Change Change Change Change Change ChangeTotal Population -59 -0.3% 516 3.0%Pre-School Population (0-3) 4 0.4% 0.0% 103 10.6% 0.4%Elementary School Population (4-13) -220 -8.1% -1.2% 25 1.0% -0.3%Secondary School Population (14-18) -88 -6.0% -0.5% -50 -3.6% -0.5%Population Over 18 Years of Age 245 2.0% 1.7% 438 3.6% 0.4%Females Aged 25-44 -188 -8.0% -1.0% -64 -3.0% -0.7%19
  28. 28. Enrolment & Utilization By Area Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change 2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012- 2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027 Total Exist 1,878 1,731 1,569 1,597 1,529 1,449 1,422 1,432 Total New 11 54 110 156Total (Existing + New) 1,878 1,731 1,569 1,597 1,540 1,503 1,532 1,588 -16% -1% New Units 65 131 394 725 1,057 Average Yield 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 Total Capacity 1852 1852 1852 1852 1852 1715 1715 1715 Total Utilization 101% 93% 85% 86% 83% 88% 89% 93%20
  29. 29. Avon Maitland District School Board - SOUTH HURON South Huron Elementary Boundary Elementary Review Boundaries $ Elementary Schools South Huron Elementary Boundaries Exeter PS Bluewater Coast (Previously Hensall) Stephen Central PS **SHDHS Boundary (South Huron 7 & 8 Grades): Includes all 3 elementary boundaries shown Huron Centennial $ $ Bluewater Coast ES $ Exeter Elementary School $ **South Huron Elementary (7/8) School (SHDHS) Stephen Central $ .
  30. 30. South Huron PA DemographicTrends 2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of Population Data Census Total Census Total Census TotalTotal Population 14,263 14,196 14,130Pre-School Population (0-3) 559 3.9% 575 4.1% 543 3.8%Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,953 13.7% 1,627 11.5% 1,416 10.0%Secondary School Population (14-18) 1,048 7.3% 1,004 7.1% 949 6.7%Population Over 18 Years of Age 10,703 75.0% 10,990 77.4% 11,222 79.4%Females Aged 25-44 1,771 12.4% 1,591 11.2% 1,378 9.8% 2001-2006 2006-2011 Absolute % Share Absolute % Share Population Data Change Change Change Change Change ChangeTotal Population -67 -0.5% -66 -0.5%Pre-School Population (0-3) 16 2.9% 0.1% -33 -5.7% -0.2%Elementary School Population (4-13) -326 -16.7% -2.2% -211 -13.0% -1.4%Secondary School Population (14-18) -43 -4.1% -0.3% -55 -5.5% -0.4%Population Over 18 Years of Age 286 2.7% 2.4% 232 2.1% 2.0%Females Aged 25-44 -180 -10.2% -1.2% -213 -13.4% -1.5%21
  31. 31. Enrolment & Utilization By Area Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change 2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012- 2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027 Total Exist 1,366 1,066 851 814 807 840 780 761 Total New 3 16 35 53Total (Existing + New) 1,366 1,066 851 814 810 856 815 814 -38% 0% New Units 27 53 168 323 484 Average Yield 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 Total Capacity 1376 1376 1376 1186 1186 1186 1186 1186 Total Utilization 99% 77% 62% 69% 68% 72% 69% 69%22
  32. 32. Avon Maitland District School Board - NORTH EAST HURON North East Huron Elementary Boundaries Elementary Review Boundaries $ Elementary Schools North East Huron Elementary Boundaries FE Madill 7/8 Attendance Boundary and Maitland River Howick Central PS Attendance Boundary Future Boundary for Turnberry & Wingham (Maitland River) Campusokside FE Madill Elementary School $ Wingham PS $ $ Howick PS Turnberry Central PS $ Listowel Central $ $Listowe North Woods (Previously Grey Central) $ Hullett $ . $Elma Township $
  33. 33. NE Huron PA Demographic Trends 2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of Population Data Census Total Census Total Census TotalTotal Population 11,179 11,275 11,033Pre-School Population (0-3) 606 5.4% 654 5.8% 647 5.9%Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,822 16.3% 1,542 13.7% 1,500 13.6%Secondary School Population (14-18) 924 8.3% 993 8.8% 797 7.2%Population Over 18 Years of Age 7,827 70.0% 8,086 71.7% 8,090 73.3%Females Aged 25-44 1,316 11.8% 1,334 11.8% 1,184 10.7% 2001-2006 2006-2011 Absolute % Share Absolute % Share Population Data Change Change Change Change Change ChangeTotal Population 96 0.9% -242 -2.1%Pre-School Population (0-3) 48 7.9% 0.4% -7 -1.1% 0.1%Elementary School Population (4-13) -280 -15.3% -2.6% -43 -2.8% -0.1%Secondary School Population (14-18) 68 7.4% 0.5% -196 -19.8% -1.6%Population Over 18 Years of Age 259 3.3% 1.7% 4 0.0% 1.6%Females Aged 25-44 18 1.3% 0.1% -150 -11.2% -1.1%23
  34. 34. Enrolment & Utilization By Area Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change 2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012- 2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027 Total Exist 1,324 1,133 1,007 942 970 1,023 1,107 1,087 Total New 3 18 34 54Total (Existing + New) 1,324 1,133 1,007 942 973 1,040 1,142 1,141 -24% 21% New Units 22 45 140 268 400 Average Yield 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.15 Total Capacity 1385 1385 1385 1092 1048 1048 1048 1048 Total Utilization 96% 82% 73% 86% 93% 99% 109% 109%24
  35. 35. Historical Secondary Enrolment HISTORICAL 2001/02 - 2006/07 - GRADES Historical Historical Historical Absolute % Absolute % 2001/2002 2006/2007 2011/2012 Change Change Change Change Grade 9 1,598 1,469 1,290 -129 -8.1% -179 -12.2%Total Enrolment 7,188 6,626 6,356 -562 -7.8% -270 -4.1% CAPACITY UTILIZATION 8,256 87% 80% 77%25
  36. 36. Projected Secondary Enrolment PROJECTED ENROLMENT 2013/14 - 2027/28 Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 2013 2017 2022 2027 Absolute % /14 /18 /23 /28 Change Change Total Existing 5,868 5,068 5,009 4,831 New Pupils 26 198 293 487 Total Pupils 5,894 5,266 5,302 5,318 -576 -10% New Units 677 2,172 4,183 6,169 Average Yield 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.08 CAPACITY UTILIZATION 7,841 75% 67% 68% 68%26
  37. 37. Secondary By School On-The- Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Projected Enrolment Ground 2007/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ Capacity 2008 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028South Huron District High School 870.0 806 657 588 406 526 469Mitchell District High School 516.0 425 374 371 346 363 377St. Marys District Collegiate and Vocational Institute 672.0 547 470 461 454 488 483Stratford Central Secondary School 789.0 686 812 813 755 654 698Stratford Northwestern Secondary School 1,155.0 963 947 886 841 830 774Central Huron Secondary School 921.0 587 610 589 491 509 519F.E. Madill Secondary School 1,041.0 921 773 688 587 571 615Goderich District Collegiate Institute 684.0 594 572 551 468 446 446Listowel District Secondary School 1,193.0 1,114 976 947 921 913 939 TOTAL PUPILS (Existing + New) 7,841 6,643 6,191 5,894 5,267 5,301 5,320 On-The- Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Projected Utilization Ground 2007/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ Capacity 2008 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028South Huron District High School 870.0 93% 76% 68% 47% 60% 54%Mitchell District High School 516.0 82% 72% 72% 67% 70% 73%St. Marys District Collegiate and Vocational Institute 672.0 81% 70% 69% 68% 73% 72%Stratford Central Secondary School 789.0 87% 103% 103% 96% 83% 88%Stratford Northwestern Secondary School 1,155.0 83% 82% 77% 73% 72% 67%Central Huron Secondary School 921.0 64% 66% 64% 53% 55% 56%F.E. Madill Secondary School 1,041.0 88% 74% 66% 56% 55% 59%Goderich District Collegiate Institute 684.0 87% 84% 81% 68% 65% 65%Listowel District Secondary School 1,193.0 93% 82% 79% 77% 77% 79% TOTAL PUPILS (Existing + New) 7,841 85% 79% 75% 67% 68% 68% 27

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