TAG<br />the ammendolia group ltd.<br />A Demographic Overview and Projected Enrolment<br />Avon Maitland District School Board<br />Tuesday, March 22, 2011<br />Presented By:<br />Jack Ammendolia, Director<br />The Ammendolia Group Ltd.<br />
Projecting School Enrolment<br />Enrolment projections are dependant on a variety of demographic, social and economic factors on a national, provincial and local scale.<br />Things like;<br /><ul><li> Birth trends
Provincial policies</li></ul>Can all affect enrolment for a school board.<br />To understand future enrolment trends for your school board and put them in perspective, it is helpful to understand national and provincial population trends. <br />
Population Trends<br />The National Perspective<br /><ul><li>The Canadian population grew more rapidly between 2001 and 2006 than the previous census period (5.4% compared with 4%).
Canada had a higher rate of growth from 2001 and 2006 than any other of the G8 countries.
About 2/3’s of Canada’s growth was due to international migration – the majority of growth in the United States is due to natural increase.
Alberta and Ontario were responsible for more than 2/3’s of Canada’s population growth.</li></ul>While the country continues to experience overall population growth, Canada has been experiencing long term enrolment decline. The number of school aged children dropped to 5.2 million in 2005-06, down 3% from 1999.<br />
Ontario<br />The Province of Ontario’s overall population continues to grow.<br /><ul><li>The Province grew by more than the National average from 2001-2006 (6.6%) as it has for more than a decade.
This represented a population increase of about 750,000 people – approximately half of Canada’s total population growth.</li></ul>Ontario’s population growth is largely driven by international migration – between 2001 and 2006, 600,000 immigrants settled in Ontario.<br />
Ontario and School Aged Population Trends<br />
Ontario Highlights<br />After more than a decade of declines in the pre-school aged population (0-3), the Province of Ontario experienced a slight increase of just over 1% or approximately 6,000 0-3 year olds from 2001-2006, according to the 2006 Census.<br />The elementary aged population experienced a decline of -2.6% from 2001-2006, while the secondary aged population increased by 8% over the same time period.<br />Larger grade cohorts in the senior elementary grades continue to age and move to secondary and are being replaced by significantly smaller cohorts – accounting for the declines in the elementary population and increases in the secondary. <br />In the short to mid term, historical elementary declines will begin to impact secondary enrolment.<br />
Ontario - What To Expect?<br />Ontario-wide births have started to increase over the past several years after more than a decade of significant declines. From 2002-2005, births have increased by more than 5%.<br />The increasing trend in the number of births is promising – it should be noted however, that current births are still more than 11% lower than levels from the early 1990’s<br />
Cautious Optimism<br />Recent demographic and socio-economic trends, combined with robust growth forecasts for the Province suggest that the declining school age population trends may begin to stabilize in the short to mid term.<br />There are, however, important indicators that should be highlighted and monitored. <br />The table below outlines the female population aged 25-44. The recent increases in births and pre-school aged children is consistent with a slight increase in the 25-44 year old females from 96-01. This same group experienced a decline of 1.2% from 2001-2006.<br />
THE AVON MAITLAND DSB<br />After a decline in 2002, births have been increasing.<br />The pre-school and school aged populations have all declined from 2001 to 2006.<br />The demographics suggest that enrolment declines are likely to continue in the short term but increases in births may stabilize the declines in the mid-term.<br />
Enrolment Projection Indicators<br />Demographic and certain socio-economic characteristics have a significant impact on future enrolment, however there are other factors that can impact projected enrolment.<br />Other important factors that affect the forecasting of school enrolment deal with trends in the enrolment itself.<br /> Junior Kindergarten trends and participation rates<br /> Grade Structure Ratios<br /> Grade 9 participation rates<br /> Returning grade 12’s<br /> ENROLMENT SHARE<br />
Junior Kindergarten Participation Rates<br />The JK grade or entry year into school systems plays an important role in determining future enrolment.<br />
Grade Structure Ratio<br />The grade structure ratio is a comparison of senior elementary students (grade 6-8) to junior elementary students (JK-1). A ratio of 1 means that the senior and junior cohorts are equal to each other. A ratio lower than 1 could indicate short term increases, while a ratio higher than 1 could indicate short term declines.<br />
Secondary Factors<br />The retention of a board’s grade 8 students into grade 9 can have a significant impact on secondary enrolments. Open access allows students to attend the board of their choice for secondary school instruction.<br />The full impact of eliminating OAC’s is still being determined as the percentage of returning grade 12’s varies from board to board and school to school.<br />
Enrolment Share and Participation Rates<br />The participation share of the population and the share of enrolment between school boards can affect future enrolment independent of all other factors.<br />
Enrolment From New Housing Development<br />The projection of new housing growth has a significant impact on projected enrolment.<br /><ul><li>According to County and Municipal growth forecasts approximately 6,364 new housing units are projected to be built in the Board’s jurisdiction over the next 15 years.
68% of future units are expected to be built in Perth County and 32% in Huron County.
The new housing units are expected to generate almost 1,150 new elementary students and more than 550 new secondary students for the Board over the next 15 years.</li></li></ul><li>TOTAL ELEMENTARY<br />Between 2001 and 2009 elementary enrolment declined by 18.5% .<br />
RA01 – Stratford, Parts Perth East & Perth South(Anne Hathaway, Avon, Bedford, Downie, Hamlet, Easthope, Romeo, Shakespeare, Sprucedale, Central, Northwestern, Central Perth)<br />
RA02 – St. Mary’s, Part Perth South(South Perth, Little Falls, St. Mary’s DCVI)<br />