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2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session I–Sustaining Africa’s Agrifood System Transformation: The Role of Public Policies

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2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session I–Sustaining Africa’s Agrifood System Transformation: The Role of Public Policies

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Presentation on "The Past, Present, and Future of Agriculture Policy in Africa" by Ousmane Badiane, AKADEMIYA2063 Executive Chairperson

Presentation on "The Past, Present, and Future of Agriculture Policy in Africa" by Ousmane Badiane, AKADEMIYA2063 Executive Chairperson

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2020 ReSAKSS Annual Conference - Plenary Session I–Sustaining Africa’s Agrifood System Transformation: The Role of Public Policies

  1. 1. The Past, Present and Future of Agriculture Policy in Africa Ousmane Badiane Julie Collins John Ulimwengu
  2. 2. Outline  KEY MESSAGE  REVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH RECOVERY  ROLE OF POLICIES IN GROWTH PERFORMANCE  CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD POLICIES  CREATING THE CONDITIONS FOR GOOD POLICIES CONCLUSIONS
  3. 3. KEY MESSAGES 1. Good Policies may not be a solution for everything 2. But Bad Policies are a problem for everything else  Better policies replaced bad policies ushering in unprecedented, decade-long, broad-based recovery  Further policy improvement required to sustain and accelerate recovery and foster economic transformation
  4. 4. 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa Fastest Growing Agricultural Sector in 2000s Agricultural value added index, 2000-2017 (1=2000) Agricultural Output Growth Agricultural Productivity Growth
  5. 5. Agricultural Sector Growth Trends 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 AgriculturalOutputPerWorker (2004-06constant$) Year Ag output per worker actual, SSA-ZAF 1960s growth path $612 $790 $1,135 1.1% annual growth rate 1.2% annual growth rate 3.8% annual growth rate to catch up Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Nin-Pratt (2015) (the original data are from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). Recent growth has not made up for the lost decades
  6. 6. 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 AgriculturalOutputPerWorker (2004-06constant$) Year $612 Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Nin-Pratt (2015) (the original data are from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 1. Better Managed Exchange Rates 2. Sustainable Fiscal Deficit 3. Lower Inflation 4. Less Market Interference 5. Less Farmer and Private Sector Bias 6. Increased Public Investment HOW DID WE GET HERE ???
  7. 7. HOW DID WE GET HERE ??? -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% NRA all products, including non tradables NRA on Importables NRA on Exportables Implicit taxation agriculture declined after 1990s Implicit subsidies for non-ag. sectors have declined after 1990s NRA data based on Anderson, K., and W. A. Masters. 2007. More Conducive Sector Policies
  8. 8. HOW DID WE GET HERE ??? The Impact Improved Sector Policies and Institutions RRA = Relative Rate of Assistance to Agriculture vs Non-agriculture Not well aligned with agricultural policies
  9. 9. Conclusion Risks of Policy Reversal – Threats to transformation goals  Lack of institutional memory,  New generation of leaders,  More open and pluralistic policy systems  Larger fiscal space Return to the failed policies of the past ??? or Pursue Policy Renewal under CAADP and Agenda 2063 ???  Enhanced Mutual Accountability – Biennial Review; Joint Sector Reviews  Data and Expertise for evidence-based policies  Deepen CAADP agenda
  10. 10. Policies in Support of Transformation What Defines Good Policies? They are based on local / relevant evidence Have clear, measurable targets, milestones Undergo rigorous reviews: technical, social, environmental Are adequately tracked and evaluated Are open to inclusive consultation and dialogue
  11. 11. FINAL MESSAGE Good Policies may not be a solution for everything . But Bad Policies are a problem for everything else

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