Search: The Big Picture - Danny Sullivan AIM 2010


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Search: The Big Picture - Danny Sullivan AIM 2010

  1. 1. Search: The Big Picture Danny Sullivan Editor-In-Chief Search Engine Land
  2. 2. In The Next 40 Minutes… <ul><li>Developments & Trends In Search </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Skipping Mobile! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Google Boogey Monster </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges To Google </li></ul><ul><li>Followed By Questions! </li></ul>
  3. 3. No longer just pages & ads Each “vertical” is new path into top results News, Shopping, Video, Books… Getting Blended
  4. 4. “ Sitelinks” under your description Getting “Rich” Descriptions You can flag ratings and prices
  5. 5. Getting Fancy Ads
  6. 6. Getting Fancy Ads
  7. 7. Everyone’s results personalized based on location & past 180 days of searches. Signed in? Web history may also be used. Getting Personal
  8. 8. Everyone’s still figuring it out, but there’s business in tweetbooking & searching it! Getting Real Time / Social
  9. 9. The Google World comScore: US Share Of Search Google stable; Bing robbing Yahoo…
  10. 10. By Volume, Even Bigger comScore: Billions Of US Searches Google volume nearly doubled, 6 to 10B!
  11. 11. The Happy Google Habit <ul><li>It’s a great product </li></ul><ul><li>Google loves search </li></ul><ul><li>Google has great signals to mine </li></ul><ul><li>Google’s business strategy is to work in (what it believes) is users’ interest </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Doesn’t believe it’s “out to get” anyone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Google Hive Mind </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. The Unhappy Google Habit <ul><li>There’s no particular need for people to “kick it” or switch </li></ul><ul><li>Chief competitors are weak, though Bing’s getting better </li></ul><ul><li>Result: Google stronger than ever </li></ul><ul><ul><li>And a bigger target for accusations of being too powerful, dominant, controlling, a monopoly… </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Favoring Itself? Then again…
  14. 14. Favoring Itself? Then again…
  15. 15. Favoring Itself? Then again, Knol hardly shows compared to Wikipedia, eHow…
  16. 16. Favoring Itself?
  17. 17. Want These On “Your” Page?
  18. 18. Then Again… Owner-Verified, and has added pics & vid Give owners more control? Ability to eliminate a page, delete reviews (with note this was done?) “ Places” pages can be good search product for searchers – What’s the balance?
  19. 19. How Do You Beat This?
  20. 20. The Decline Of Yahoo <ul><li>Believes can win by having a better search interface (search as “chip”) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Didn’t work for Lycos, AOL, others – not likely to work for Yahoo </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Expect Bing to continue building self as Google alternative & robbing Yahoo share </li></ul>
  21. 21. Bada Bing <ul><li>Growth still minor; will it continue when the TV ads stop? </li></ul><ul><li>Does have Google reacting! </li></ul><ul><li>With Yahoo out, expect it to be #2 in mindshare & eventually in marketshare </li></ul>
  22. 22. Enough With “Google Killers” <ul><li>No new start-up will best Google </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Search is really, really hard </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bigger! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cuil played that card and lost hard </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Natural Language! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Powerset had to be purchased by Microsoft rather than go it alone </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Computational Knowledge Engine! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wolfram Alpha’s not on the radar </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Perhaps Google Killerettes? <ul><li>Not quite death by 1,000 cuts </li></ul><ul><li>More like let 1,000 flowers bloom </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It’s a big field! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Google isn’t the top tool of choice in everything… </li></ul>
  24. 24. Urbanspoon Never wonder where to eat again iPhone app knows where you are, randomly selects a restaurant… Behind the scenes – or on the web, huge database of reviews from newspapers and users Yes, shaking is search
  25. 25. Eventful What’s going on, from music to community events and more App knows where you are, suggests events in your area, as does web site:
  26. 26. Foursquare Checking in is search! Tips, advice, business offers … things you won’t find or find as easily in Google
  27. 27. Facebook’ll Beat Em! <ul><li>Cause they know what everyone “Likes” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google can figure out “Likes” for the entire web, not just pages with buttons </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cause they’ve got that “social graph” stuff so you know what your friends trust… </li></ul>
  28. 28. Social Search, Sans Real Time <ul><li>Social graph (ugh) / social network data is potentially useful </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Watch what others are searching on </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monitor clicks in a more “ trusted ” environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reshape results based on what you friends seem to like </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But who are your friends … </li></ul></ul>
  29. 29. Fake Friends & Privacy <ul><li>Do you have to filter to “ true ” friends? </li></ul><ul><li>Do you then still need to consider what you ’ ll share? </li></ul><ul><li>Do Facebook or others instead work on aggregate level? </li></ul>
  30. 30. Social Search Reality <ul><li>Potential, yes </li></ul><ul><li>Killer, not likely </li></ul><ul><li>Instead, yet another of many signals </li></ul>
  31. 31. The Big Takeaway Search is more than keywords in a search box, more than Google. It's anywhere & way people seek answers. And those many ways are all diverse opportunities for marketers.
  32. 32. <ul><li>Search Engine Land ( </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Stories and news from me and others </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SearchCap ( </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Daily email recap of search news from SEL & across the web </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sphinn ( </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Social site for internet marketers: share news stories </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SMX: Search Marketing Expo ( </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SMX Advanced in Seattle this June </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SMX East in New York this October </li></ul></ul>Questions?