Don't Blow Your S.M.A.C. Stack

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As a futurist I am obligated to attempt to identify inflection points — things that fundamentally disrupt the status quo, change the competitive dynamic, call into question existing practices and require a general cognitive reboot. I predict that four disruptive technologies, mnemonically labeled the “S.M.A.C. Stack” [Social, Mobile, Analytics/Big Data, and the Cloud] will shape the next competitive cycle. These technologies need to be understood, mastered and deployed to maximum effect.

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Don't Blow Your S.M.A.C. Stack

  1. 1. Thornton May Part 1 Don’t Blow Your S.M.A.C. Stack [2 April 2014] thorntonamay@aol.com Twitter: @deanitla www.linkedin.com/pub/thornton-may/0/4b2/a22/
  2. 2. I would like to begin… …by saying “Thank You”
  3. 3. A Special Session For a Special Audience On a Critically Important Topic At a Unique Moment in Economic History Honored to be With You…
  4. 4.      I  was  “here”     last  year…   Thank  you  for  having  me  back  
  5. 5. What  do  you   Remember…   …from  my  remarks     last  year?  
  6. 6. Here’s  my  “high  level”  plan     for  this  year’s  “speech”  
  7. 7. I   Promise…  
  8. 8. www.aiim.org/infochaos   Do  YOU  understand  the  business     challenge  of  the  next  10  years?   This  ebook  from  AIIM  President   John  Mancini  explains.  
  9. 9. to  speak     more  meaningfully     &  memorably  
  10. 10. I am a Futurist! 2014+
  11. 11. Not just ANY Futurist… I am an Empirical Futurist… Francis Bacon [1561-1626]
  12. 12. I collect data…
  13. 13. I Collect Data… …by listening to People…
  14. 14. I Collect Data… …by observing what People do… Workplace   Ethnography   I  juxtapose   “What  I  Hear”   With   “What  I  See”  
  15. 15. My data “reeks of human juices”
  16. 16. My Preferred Process… For converting my research data into YOUR actionable insights… In  a  Perfect  World…   Claude Lorrain, Landscape with Aeneas at Delos [1672]
  17. 17. Socratic Exchanges…Would be a Series of…  
  18. 18. In that perfect world, we would… Via a series of time-boxed exercises: Collaboratively create local data Compare local data with global research Collectively ‘map’ the future world of information management
  19. 19. The Plan for our brief time together Share with you the Exercises designed to precipitate Insights which embody the Ideas which lead to the Practices which will define information management excellence in the years to come
  20. 20. Shibe Park, akaConnie Mack Stadium, in Philadelphia, Today I Will Be Making 7 points… Along  the  way  there  will  be:     Take-­‐Aways   AcKon  Items   Models/Frameworks   Exercises   Stories   Lessons   &   Sub-­‐Points  
  21. 21. What Happens to Many People At Technology Lectures Session Roadmap This is not a ‘lecture’.
  22. 22. Your immediate Future Involves Several Quick Exercises…
  23. 23. In  two  [2]  minutes   please  discuss     and  be  prepared  to  list     THE  two  [2]    greatest  changes     ImpacKng  your  career     in  the  next  two  [2]  years  ?   2 x 2 x 2 Exercise thorntonamay@aol.com   @deanitla  
  24. 24. Report Backs
  25. 25. What Patterns/Trends [if any] do you perceive in your responses?
  26. 26. What is the ‘big picture’?
  27. 27. Emily Grenader Crowd Painting (Times Square) [2009] http://emilygrenader.com/crowds02.php Everybody is talking about “Change”
  28. 28. HBO Rome But haven’t people always been talking about “Change”?
  29. 29. 20th Century Fox Cleopatra [1963] always  been     talking  about     “Change”?   But     haven’t  people  
  30. 30. This is not our first “go” with change Point     One  
  31. 31. Prometheus Ted Talk 2023 [28 February 2012] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpYUW0ekPSA This  is  NOT  Humanity’s   First  “Go”  at   Fundamental  Change   Fire. 100,000 B.C. – stone tools. 4,000 B.C. – the wheel. 20th century – the automobile, television, nuclear, spacecraft, internet. 21st century – biotech, nanotech, fusion and fision and M-theory. And that was just the first decade. 9th Century A.D. – gunpowder, bit of a game changer that one. 19th century – Eureka, the light bulb!
  32. 32. Speaking  Historically…   There  have  been   quite  a  few…   “New  Ages”  
  33. 33. David  ChrisKan  divides  the   totality  of  history   Big  History   into  eight  threshold  moments   David Christian, Deep History [February 2011] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqc9zX04DXs
  34. 34. Threshold 1 Big Bang Threshold 2 The Stars Light Up Threshold 3 New Chemical Elements Threshold 4 Earth & the Solar System Threshold 5 Life on Earth Threshold 6 Appearance of Our Species Threshold 7 Agriculture Threshold 8 The Modern Revolution David  ChrisKan  divides  the  totality  of  history   Big  History   into  eight  threshold  moments   David Christian, Deep History [February 2011] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqc9zX04DXs
  35. 35. Big  History’s  Eight  “Threshold  Moments”   http://www.csusmhistory.org/faulk006/thresholds/
  36. 36. What  is  the     single  most  important     change  management  lesson   you  have  learned     so  far  in  your  career?   3 Minute Exercise  
  37. 37. Report Backs
  38. 38. What Patterns/Trends [if any] do you perceive in your responses?
  39. 39. This is not our first “New Age” Point     Two  
  40. 40. 3 minute exercise What [if anything] is REALLY different about THIS “New Age”? Deep Thinking
  41. 41. Report Backs
  42. 42. What Patterns/Trends [if any] do you perceive in your responses?
  43. 43. Nobody Likes the Status Quo Points   of  Agreement  
  44. 44. Mental     Models   The Mind of Society
  45. 45. Mental     Models   People seem sort of “angry”
  46. 46. 32
  47. 47. Point     Three   We are living in a Confusing Time
  48. 48. For every age, there is a defining technology Point     Four  
  49. 49. The Age we are entering has… FOUR [4] Defining technologies Point     Five  
  50. 50. 41 The Major Waves of Disruptive Technology Change People Agree on the General Shape of the Future Analy&cs   Big  Data   Social  Media   Mobility   Cloud   For  the  1st  Kme     in  a  very  long  Kme…  
  51. 51. “Social media's moment will pass – but when?,” New Scientist [18 February 2012]. http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21328523.300-social-medias-moment-will-pass--but-when.html Technology of the Age "WHEN it's steam engine time, people will invent steam engines.“ Major innovations occur not when an inventor is struck by a bolt from the blue, but when the scientific & social conditions are ripe.
  52. 52. The  Technology  Landscape    is  Changing   John Martin, The Great Day of His Wrath (1851-53).
  53. 53. EVERY organization has to progress through a “wilderness moment” Regarding     The  SMAC   Stack  
  54. 54. “When you know what you’re doing is not the right thing AND You don’t know what the right thing to do is yet H. James Dallas. COO Medtronics [6 November 2013] A Wilderness Moment is…
  55. 55. Leaders   Acknowledge   “Uncertainty”   March 9, 2012 GE's Immelt: Global Economy In 'New Era' Of Instability
  56. 56. An era of great head scratching….
  57. 57. Things  may  be   “blurry”  but  not   “unforecastable”  
  58. 58. While the “future” may not be “Knowable” with decimal-point-precision It is forecastable to the extent that Directionally-non-toxic preparations can be begun Hypothesis  
  59. 59. Some Change Is Forecastable Point  Six    
  60. 60. x Does  Anyone   Recognize    this  PainKng?  
  61. 61. At Eternity’s Gate May 1890 Hint:   A  Complicated  Dutchman  
  62. 62. x Vincent Van Gogh, The Outskirts of Paris [1886]. Some  Change  is  Forecastable  
  63. 63. Alan  Wurtzel,     son  of  the  founder,     20  year  employee,     CEO  &  Board  Member     of  Circuit  City     defines  strategy  as:   “The  art  &  science  of  harmonizing     the  resources,  strengths,  and  capaciKes     of  the  organizaKon     to  the  external  environment.  
  64. 64. From 1983 to 1993 Circuit City was… the best performing Fortune 500 Services company stock on the NYSE
  65. 65. In 2008 the company filed for bankruptcy. In early 2009 creditors liquidated all assets.
  66. 66. Circuit  City   What happened?
  67. 67. Did  Senior  Management  Become  Stupid?  
  68. 68. A  Rich  &  Deep  Set  of  Scholarship     Abributes  Enterprise  Demise   to  Management  Incompetence  
  69. 69. resources, strengths, & capacities of the organization Strategic  Success  requires     Two  KNOWs   Deep & brutally honest understanding of the external environment.”
  70. 70. If YOU were asked to choose the movie, TV show or work of literature which comes closest to capturing the Essence of the external environment facing your enterprise today What movie/TV show/book would you pick? 90 Second exercise
  71. 71. Report Backs
  72. 72. What Patterns/Trends [if any] do you perceive in your responses?
  73. 73. The Picture in Our HeadsThere is an island in the ocean where in 1914 a few Englishmen, Frenchmen, and Germans lived. No cable reaches that island, and the British mail steamer comes in but once in sixty days. In September it had not yet come, and the islanders were still talking about the latest newspaper which told about the approaching trial of Madame Caillaux for the shooting of Gaston Calmette. It was, therefore, with more than usual eagerness that the whole colony assembled at the quay on a day in mid-September to hear from the captain what the verdict had been.
  74. 74. The Picture in Our Heads Public Opinion [1922] They learned that for over six weeks now those of them who were English and those of them who were French had been fighting on behalf of the sanctity of treaties against those of them who were Germans. For six strange weeks they had acted as if they were friends, when in fact they were enemies.
  75. 75. The Picture in Our Heads There was a moment when the picture of Europe on which men were conducting their business as usual, did not in any way correspond to the Europe which was about to make a jumble of their lives. did not in any way correspond to the Europe which was about to make a jumble of their lives.
  76. 76. The Picture in Our Heads There was a time for each man when he was still adjusted to an environment that no longer existed.
  77. 77. SMAC STACK Mastery is Achievable Point     Seven  
  78. 78. [2] Wisdom begins by knowing that you don’t know [3] Excellence (ἀρετή- arete) is teachable & learnable
  79. 79. Observation A subset of institutions are on the path to S.M.A.C. Stack Mastery
  80. 80. Howard Payne [Dennis Hopper ] in Speed [1994] “What do you do? What do you do?” taunting police officer Jack Travern [Keanu Reeves] hbp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug2hLQv6WeY  
  81. 81. Patterns of Behavior of Institutions well along the “Path to Mastery” Q4 2013/Q1 014 Research Thornton May, Computerworld [10 February 2014] http://goo.gl/OZXHpk Step 1: Decide to do something. Step 2: Craft a narrative. Step 3: Access Type 1 smartness. Step 4: Inventory S.M.A.C. resources. Step 5: Assess readiness. Step 6: Centrally manage S.M.A.C. resources. Step 7: Create S.M.A.C. capability. Step 8: Obtain the support of senior management. Step 9: Act on insight. Step 10: Link to behavior. ObservaKon  
  82. 82. Your  Choice   Success is a matter of will. The first step to greatness is to decide to be great. Napoleon William Dietrich, Napoleon’s Pyramids [NY: HarperCollins, 2007], 131.
  83. 83. 82 How an organization thinks about S.M.A.C.… Critical Finding …will materially impact the value an organization extracts from S.M.A.C. Remember "light bulb" jokes? My favorite was, "How many shrinks does it take to change a light bulb?” “One, but the light bulb must want to change."
  84. 84. See things as they are and act appropriately Aristotle’s  “Golden  Mean”   AcKon  Item  
  85. 85. Don’t try to control what you can’t control. Seek to be in control only of what you are able. Stoic  Philosopher   Epictetus   AcKon  Item  
  86. 86. This is Not our 1st “Go” with Change This is not our 1st “New Age” We are living in a Confusing Time Every age has a defining technology Our Age has 4 Defining Technologies Some change is forecastable S.M.A.C. Stack Mastery is achievable To  Recap…   Seven Points
  87. 87. 2 x 2 x 2 Change Exercise Change Management Lessons Exercise Essence of External Environment Exercise Stories Exercises To  Recap…   Four Exercises
  88. 88. President Nixon: ‘You dress kind of strange, don’t you?’ White House Oval Office December 21, 1970   Elvis: ‘You have your show and I have mine.’

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