Global land area - 13.5 billion hectaresAgricultural area - 5 billion hectareArable area (crop land) - 1.5 billion hectaresTechnically, additional 2 billion hectares available for rain fed crop cultivation.
The role of bio based plastics on global land use change
NNFCCThe changing face of the planet The role of Bio-based Plastics on global land use change Dr Adrian Higson June 2012
NNFCC A specialist bio-based economy consultancy based in York, UK.Company VisionWe view bio-based technologies as keycomponents of the low carbon economydelivering economic, social and environmentalbenefits.We believe the bioeconomy will createsustainable business opportunities forfeedstock suppliers, technology and projectdevelopers, manufacturers and investors.Company MissionTo provide clients with a holistic view of feedstock, technology, policy and marketdevelopment across the bioeconomy, enabling them to make informed businessdecisions and develop sustainable business strategies.
NNFCCTerminology The aggregate set of economic operations in a society that use the latent value incumbent in biological products and processes economy to capture new growth and welfare benefits for citizens and nations. (OECD) Activity associated with the use of biological products (plants, bio- animals, micro-organisms) to economy produce energy and materials bio-based Activity associated with the use economy of biomass to produce energy and materials
NNFCCWhy the interest?Global carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions Europe is on track to spend overfrom fossil-fuel combustion reached a USD500 billion on oil imports this year,record high of 31.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in which is well in excess of the Greek2011 – IEA preliminary estimates government’s USD370 billion debt - IEA
NNFCCBio Chemicals and Bio-Based Polymers(all areas of economy) Chemical Derivatives Naval Stores Natural Products OleochemicalsMarket size Biopolymers Amino Acids~ 50 million tones Alcohols Aliphatic acids Other Fermentation Products 54% 7% 4% 17% 1% 7% 5% 1% 20% 1%
NNFCCMarket expansion and development activityCurrently over 30 companies activelycommercialising over 50 bulk chemicals Gr ee Ca Re nc Gl th Companies working on bio-based chemicals ol ve yc ay Co Ta rd Go Ea M os Gl In lb ia iw od et stm ob Am ol Bi du ( Gl an Gr DS ab tT ye ot al st ob an yr In ee ol Co Na M ec ar ec ria Bi Ge is/ di al ic nB Ch An /R /G hn rp oe hn tu lB Ve Bi Bi aG M Re no Bi Ex Bu No Ze Br Vi oq or em el en Bi M OP ol ne re io oA oc ol io rd Du oc ich m nn Dr pl So lyc ny ac as ta lo oM og at ve lo yr Vi wo ue og te Pu en al rg X e m DO ica Ge or he at AD TM P eli he te DS ov at ke m gic io re lva th ian zy ie do ch ol ph ie t te Bi ies on be ra co rk ica CN er ch hs m ax n ls n vo m nt W a ia ne s s m M M s o O s l y a c t s r t r i ) Methanol Formic Acid Ethanol Ethylene Ethylene Oxide Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Acetic Acid Bio-based chemicals Ethyl acetate Epichlorohydrin Acetone isoPropanol Propylene Propylene Glycol 1,3-Propanediol Lactic acid Acrylic Acid n-Butanol iso-Butanol iso-Butylene Butadiene Succinic acid 2,3-Butanediol 1,4-Butanediol Tetrahydrofuran Isoprene Adipic acid HMDA Benzene Toluene Paraxylene Terephthalic acid Styrene
NNFCCMarket building - European Lead Market Initiative • Standards, labels and certification • Legislation promoting market development • Product specific legislation • Legislation related to biomass • Encourage Green Public Procurement • Financing and funding of research
NNFCCBio-based chemical platforms 60% Ethanol Ethylene Polyethylenes 7% Styrene Polymers/Rubbers MonomerEthanol production ~ 70 million tonnes Ethylene 14% Polyester Oxide/GlycolEthylene production ~ 110 million tonnes 12% EDC PVC 7% Other Alpha Olefins PVA PET Collaborative
NNFCCBio-based chemicals – Novel or drop in? • Drop in – known targets and downstream products Strengths • Novel – exploits attributes of biomass or biological processing • Drop in – number of unit operations required Weaknesses • Novel – requirement for product development • Drop in - rapid route to market through existing Opportunities infrastructure and know how • Novel – provides new or improved functionality • Drop in – production never achieves cost competitiveness Threats • Novel – immature supply chain and market awareness
NNFCCBio-based chemical outlook • Consumer preference Strengths • Reduced carbon footprints & fossil energy use • Novel / Improved function • Low volume / High costs Weaknesses • Immature supply chain • Market confusion • Oil price volatility Opportunities • Capture C3 and C4 markets • Co-development with fuel industry • Feedstock supply Threats • Alternative feedstock (coal, gas) • Environmental pressure
NNFCCThe value of biomass Increasing value Decreasing volume
NNFCCBiomass – A love hate relationship! • Available on demand Strengths • Carbon source • Cost Weaknesses • Physical nature • Energy generation (heat and power) Opportunities • Liquid transport fuels • Chemicals and materials • Competition for land Threats • Environmental pressure
NNFCCOpportunity, complexity, and confusion Source IEA Task 42, NNFCC
NNFCCClient questions • What’s the value proposition in bioplastics? – Function vs renewable content • What does the environmental footprint look like? – greenhouse gas emissions, water impacts • How big is the potential market opportunity/impact? Time horizons 2020 – niche or mainstream 2030 – true rate of development 2050 • What do the resource requirements look like? – Availability, price, impact on other markets • How will technology develop? – Synthetic biology, biomass crops etc
NNFCC Do we have enough land to feed the planet andproduce the low carbon energy, fuels and materialsneeded by a population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050?
NNFCCLand availability and useGlobal arable land could be doubledHowever, what is the limit of sustainable expansion?What are the environmental and societal implications ofexpansion and land use change?
NNFCCHow to view the future Chemical driven Bioeconomy Political support for bioeconomy Political support for biofuel wanes Biotech breakthroughs expand to Limited commercial biotech breakthroughs chemicals Industry based on arable crops Industry based on biomass & arable crops NNFCC scenarios Biofuels stalled Biofuel driven Current political support for biofuel Political support for biofuel grows remains Biotech breakthroughs limited to biofuel Limited commercial biotech breakthroughs Industry based on biomass crops Industry based on arable crops
NNFCCQuestions, variables and assumptions Biopolymer volume fixed as a % of overall market Plastic market growth rates? Which biopolymers will achieve a significant place in the market? Production technology? Production geography? Feedstock preference? Bio-based content of polymers?
NNFCCFuture development Hurdles • Lignocellulose deconstruction • Fermentation scope and yields • Downstream processing Game changers • Synthetic biology • Synthesis gas fermentation
NNFCCBiopolymer Scenarios - land requirements (2030) 50 % of available land 40 30 Chemical driven 20 Biofuel stalled 10 Biofuel driven 0 Bioeconomy Polymer demand – 428 million tonnes Land availability – 250-800 million ha (Source FAO)
NNFCCRegional Development Sustainable agriculture Established agri supply chains Strong technology base Sustainable agriculture Limited political support Established agri supply chains High residue availability Strong technology base Strong political support Agricultural sustainability? Land availability? Strong political support Access to growing markets Established cultivation and processing Available arable land High crop yields (sugar cane) Large arable land Good residue availability potential (bagasse) Limited access to skills Good access to growing markets Limited access to markets
NNFCC Sustainability through project control Round Table on Sustainable Biofuels12 Principles for sustainable biofuel production – Legality – Planning, Monitoring and Continuous Improvement – Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Human and Labour Rights – Rural and Social Development – Local Food Security – Conservation – Soil – Water – Air – Use of Technology, Inputs and Management of Wastes – Land Rights
NNFCCMitigation Strategies Use our existing resources better by driving innovation Migrate to non-food feedstock like wastes, agricultural residues, algae and lignocellulosic crops Push policies towards sectors with limited alternatives
NNFCCMaximising resource use raw material Material Cycle Energy Cycle
NNFCC The NNFCC provides high quality, industry leading consultancy for more information contact us Email - email@example.com +44 (0) 1904 435182 Follow us on Twitter @NNFCC• Future Market Analysis • Technology evaluation & associated• Feedstock Logistics Planning due diligence• Sustainability Strategy • Project feasibility assessment Development • Policy and regulatory support