Simulating the Impact of ClimateChange and AdaptationStrategies on FarmProductivity and Income:A Bioeconomic AnalysisPrese...
Simulating the Impactof Climate Change andAdaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity    and Income: ABioeconomic Analysis ...
1.1 Issue and objective2. Methodology   - Biophysical Model    - Economic Model    - Climate Scenarios3. Results
1. Issue and objective•   Our    O r climate is changing more and more                   changing;    evidences on rising ...
1. Issue and objective (cont.)Objective• Better understand the impact of climate change  on farmers and agricultural p    ...
2. Methodology (cont.)                                 S                                 Scenarios on changes i           ...
CropSyst or Cropping Systems Simulation ModelLOCATION   WEATHER   Storms   Evapotranspiration   Freezing climates   W...
CropSyst (cont.)Crop growth
CropSyst (cont.)Soil texture
CropSyst (cont.)Evapotranspiration model
CropSyst (cont.)Irrigation
CropSyst (cont.)                                                  Hard wheat                                              ...
CropSyst (cont.)SimulationSim lation controle
CropSyst (cont.)Crop and management rotation table
CropSyst (cont.)Atmospheric CO2
CropSyst (cont.)Runtime graphic display u t e g ap c d sp ay            Atmospheric conditions graph           • Average d...
Validation                               Real yield   Simulated yield                  50                  45             ...
No modeling of:  •   Tree crops  •   Weeds      W d  •   Diseases  •   Pests  •   Grassland  •   Livestock  •   Physical d...
Crop Development Models (incomplete list)                                          International                          ...
Economic ModelObjective                                                                                                ...
Assumptions (cont.)• Rational decision making with gross margins the  only variable influencing surface allocation• Fixed ...
Climate Change Scenarios                                         Change in daily temperature    CO2          Change inconc...
2. Methodology (cont.)                                A                                Assumption on changes i            ...
2. Methodology    GHG  Emissions                Global/Regional       Future                                      Climate ...
3. ResultsProductivity effects (%)                                     Productivity loss:15 to                            ...
3. Results (cont.)Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%)   Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)• Irrigated crops less affected than ...
3. Results (cont.)Yield of irrigated oat hay ( )             g           y (%)      Yield of irrigated hard wheat ( )     ...
3. Results (cont.)     Hard wheat yield (tons/ha)                                               Compensation              ...
Summary1.1 Yield loss: 1oC    15 20% ; 2oC to 3oC                     15-20%                   35 55%                     ...
Thank you for your attention    More information at       www.ifpri.org     www.agrodep.org          g    p g
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Simulating the Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity and Income: A Bioeconomic Analysis

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Simulating the Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity and Income: A Bioeconomic Analysis

Presented by Ismael Fofana at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis

June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal

For more information on the workshop or to see the latest version of this presentation visit: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop

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Simulating the Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity and Income: A Bioeconomic Analysis

  1. 1. Simulating the Impact of ClimateChange and AdaptationStrategies on FarmProductivity and Income:A Bioeconomic AnalysisPresented by: Ismael Fofana International Food Policy Research Institute - Dakar www.agrodep.org AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal Please check the latest version of this presentation on: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
  2. 2. Simulating the Impactof Climate Change andAdaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity and Income: ABioeconomic Analysis Ismaël Fofana International Food Policy Research Institute West and Central Africa Dakar, Senegal
  3. 3. 1.1 Issue and objective2. Methodology - Biophysical Model - Economic Model - Climate Scenarios3. Results
  4. 4. 1. Issue and objective• Our O r climate is changing more and more changing; evidences on rising temperature, sea-levels, frequency and severity of droughts and floods … floods,• Agricultural A i lt l sector i hi hl climate sensitive t is highly li t iti• Climate defines production areas for crops• Climate’s effect on yield is important
  5. 5. 1. Issue and objective (cont.)Objective• Better understand the impact of climate change on farmers and agricultural p g production• Help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to optimize food production• Analysis at the farm level is a crucial step before moving into a large and general analysis
  6. 6. 2. Methodology (cont.) S Scenarios on changes i i h in temperature, precipitation, & CO2 Gross Profit Margin 6 Future Climate Scenarios S i Farm Econ. Model Biophysical(Linear optimization) Model (CropSyst) Fixed Prices Crop yields Inputs use Price taking assumption
  7. 7. CropSyst or Cropping Systems Simulation ModelLOCATION WEATHER Storms Evapotranspiration Freezing climates WindCROP Classification Planting Growth Morphology MANAGEMENT Phenology  Harvest Vernalization  Irrigation Photoperiod  Clipping Harvest  Nitrogen g Residue  Conservation Nitrogen  Tillage Salinity CO2 DormancySOIL Leaching Runoff RUSLE Volatilization Texture Hydraulics
  8. 8. CropSyst (cont.)Crop growth
  9. 9. CropSyst (cont.)Soil texture
  10. 10. CropSyst (cont.)Evapotranspiration model
  11. 11. CropSyst (cont.)Irrigation
  12. 12. CropSyst (cont.) Hard wheat (RL 39% + IL 16%) [Crop+Location+Soil+Manage] Fodder barley SIMULATION CONTROLE (RL 2%) Rotation Soft wheat[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage] Soil profile (RL 4%) Residue [Crop+Location+Soil+Manage] Nitrogen Runoff Fava beans CO2 (RL 2%) [Crop+Location+Soil+Manage] Validation Oat hay Chi k Chickpeas (IL 8%) [Crop+Location+Soil+Manage] (RL 1%) [Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
  13. 13. CropSyst (cont.)SimulationSim lation controle
  14. 14. CropSyst (cont.)Crop and management rotation table
  15. 15. CropSyst (cont.)Atmospheric CO2
  16. 16. CropSyst (cont.)Runtime graphic display u t e g ap c d sp ay Atmospheric conditions graph • Average daily temperature • Actual evapotranspiration Growth • Potential evapotranspiration stage • Precipitation Atmospheric conditions graph graph • Runoff • Plant height • Actual transpiration • Biomass • Potential transpiration • Leaf area index • Green area index • Total stress • Nitrogen stress • Light stress g • Water stress Harvest • Temperature stress Totals Display Plant  Pl t Plant Available  Pl t A il bl Available  Nitrogen graph Water graph [ammonium & nitrate]
  17. 17. Validation Real yield Simulated yield 50 45 40 35 Calibration results Yield (ton/ha) 30 25 for irrigated hard g 20 15 wheat 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years Real yield Real yield Simulated yield Simulated yield 60 50Calibration results /ha) 40 Yield (ton/ for rainfed hard 30 wheat 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Year
  18. 18. No modeling of: • Tree crops • Weeds W d • Diseases • Pests • Grassland • Livestock • Physical damage (soil) • Plant characteristics • Intercropping system • Food quality q y
  19. 19. Crop Development Models (incomplete list) International I i l Decision Support System for Consortium for http://www.icasa.neDSSAT Agrotechnology Transfer Agricultural Systems t/dssat Applications The Commonwealth Agricultural Production Scientific and http://www.apsim.inAPSIM Systems Simulator Industrial Research fo Organization Cropping Systems Washington State http://www.bsye.CropSyst Simulation Model University wsu.edu/cropsyst wsu edu/cropsyst United States Erosion Productivity Impact http://epicapex.brc.EPIC Department of Calculator tamus.edu Agriculture http://wwww.fao.orAquacrop crop water productivity model FAO g Wageningen http://www.wofost. http://www wofostWOFOST WOrld FOod STudies University wur.nl
  20. 20. Economic ModelObjective    max     c , m  Tc , m  with  c , m    y c , m , j  pc , j     qc , m , i  pc , i  L c ,m  j   i ConstraintsSoil occupation:  Tc,m  T S c m min5 years max5 yearsRotation: Scc,mi  Scf ,mi and S c  Sc  S cWater:  Wc ,t  Wt s c Surface allocated to barley fodder compensated for theAnimal food: change in supplies of animal food (stubbles)
  21. 21. Assumptions (cont.)• Rational decision making with gross margins the only variable influencing surface allocation• Fixed products and factor prices (price taker)• No constraint on the farm’s access to other productive factors e g labor and capital factors, e.g.• Water supply mostly comes from surface water and its availability is proportionally affected by the change in rainfall g
  22. 22. Climate Change Scenarios Change in daily temperature CO2 Change inconcentration daily precipitation +1°C C +2°C C +3°C 3C -10% Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5 700 ppm -20% Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 6
  23. 23. 2. Methodology (cont.) A Assumption on changes i ti h in temperature, precipitation, & CO2 Gross Profit Margin 6 Future Climate Scenarios S i Farm Econ. Model Biophysical(Linear optimization) Model (CropSyst) Fixed Prices Crop yields Inputs use Price taking Assumption
  24. 24. 2. Methodology GHG Emissions Global/Regional Future Climate Circulation Models Scenarios5 Future Climate Scenarios Micro- BiophysicalBehavioral Model Model Crop yields Inputs use Prices GHG emissions 2 4 Multi-Sectoral Partial/General Crop yields Inputs use Pi Prices Equilibrium GHG emissions Model
  25. 25. 3. ResultsProductivity effects (%) Productivity loss:15 to 20% in the near-term; 35 to 55% in the long run Income effects (%) Income loss: 5 to 20% in the near-term; 45 to 70% in the long run
  26. 26. 3. Results (cont.)Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)• Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed crops (with 10 percentage points of productivity gap)• Precipitation-induced Precipitation induced productivity gap lessens as the climate warms up
  27. 27. 3. Results (cont.)Yield of irrigated oat hay ( ) g y (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat ( ) g (%)Yield of rainfed fava beans (%) Yield of rained fodder barley (%)
  28. 28. 3. Results (cont.) Hard wheat yield (tons/ha) Compensation for the negative effects of climate change li t h through irrigation isPercentage variation of hard wheat yield (%) worthwhile only for a 1°C increase in temperature
  29. 29. Summary1.1 Yield loss: 1oC 15 20% ; 2oC to 3oC 15-20% 35 55% 35-55%2. Rev.2 Rev loss: 1oC 5-20% ; 2oC to 3oC 5 20% 45-70% 45 70%3. Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed crops g p p4. Precipitation-induced productivity gap lessen as p p yg p the climate warms up5. Some crops less affected than others6. Irrigation, as an adaptation strategy, i worthwhile6 I i ti d t ti t t is th hil only for a 1°C increase in temperature
  30. 30. Thank you for your attention More information at www.ifpri.org www.agrodep.org g p g

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