Risk management in kanban using real options - Olav Maassen

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Risk management in kanban using real options - Olav Maassen

  1. 1. 10/8/2010 Risk management in Kanban using Real Options Olav Maassen Xebia Clip of House M.D. 1
  2. 2. 10/8/2010 Let’s play a game Goal: To deliver as quickly as possible Teams • Form teams • Decide on name Who will complete task A and task B first? 2
  3. 3. 10/8/2010 Task A Dear Team, Construct a six sided random number generator. Something like a dice like thingy. Each member of the team should take it in turns to use it until everyone on the team has rolled a "Double 6". Task B Dear Team, Construct a four sided random number generator. Something like a dice like thingy. Each member of the team should take it in turns to use it until everyone on the team has rolled a "Double 6". 3
  4. 4. 10/8/2010 What are options? 8 9 4
  5. 5. 10/8/2010 An Arbitrage (Free Money) © wilhei55 © moonpix7 © Justin Russell Options everywhere © tvol 5
  6. 6. 10/8/2010 100.000 (+/- 5%) barrels of oil for $100 / barrel Total value: $10.000.000 • Price drops to $90 • Price goes to $110 • 95.000 barrels • 105.000 barrels • Cost saving: $10 * 5.000 • Extra profit: $10 * 5000 95.000 barrels plus the option to buy 10.000 more When is something optional? 6
  7. 7. 10/8/2010 What is a commitment? 15 7
  8. 8. 10/8/2010 Black Scholes….. A House of Cards Oops! © shaymus022 8
  9. 9. 10/8/2010 Options Options Never have expire commit value early unless you know why © luismi1985 © givepeasachance © Tub Gurnard Options have value 19 9
  10. 10. 10/8/2010 Options expire 20 Never commit early unless you know why 21 10
  11. 11. 10/8/2010 Real world examples © codyR 22 1. Right 2. Wrong 3. Uncertainty © Bethany L King © Violator3 11
  12. 12. 10/8/2010 A or B? © The Nug WWW. Grid © Uninen Maths 12
  13. 13. 10/8/2010 Options Options Never have expire commit value early unless you know why © luismi1985 © givepeasachance © Tub Gurnard STOP Guessing! © topher76 13
  14. 14. 10/8/2010 Create Options © haydnseek Prepare to run fast. © James Temple 14
  15. 15. 10/8/2010 ……and © lordkirbs have fun. Clip of House M.D. 0:00 – 0:05 15
  16. 16. 10/8/2010 Questions? Contact info: Olav Maassen Xebia olav.maassen@xebia.com twitter.com/olavmaassen 16

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