Findings of the AFNIC's "Technology Backdrop" Survey

1. Findings of the AFNIC’s “Technology Backdrop” Survey Mohsen Souissi 1 Feb 2011 AFNIC - R&D

2. Outline <ul><li>Context, motivation & objectives of the technology backdrop survey </li></ul><ul><li>Survey Structure and characteristics of the respondents population </li></ul><ul><li>Backdrop construction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Methodology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consensuses identified </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Divergences identified (Scenario approach) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Zoom inside categories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Are consensuses among the global population still applicable inside categories? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Are the divergence scenarios still applicable to categories? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusion and further work </li></ul>

3. Subject, Context & Objectives of the Survey <ul><li>Subject & Context </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A Survey on a "Technology backdrop" for AFNIC in a medium-to-long term (10-15 years) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carried out from 2008/10/01 2009/01/31 by AFNIC’s R&D team with the help of its Scientific Council </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IT Professionals (engineers, researchers, teachers ...) were asked to answer the online survey </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For data analysis and interpretation: assisted by a Student from ENSAE (a Statistics High School in France) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Main objective </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Get a shared view of the future of IT (trends, uncertainties) to take into consideration when assessing R&D opportunities in the future </li></ul></ul>

5. Structure of the Survey and Covered Themes <ul><li>Three axes for the chosen themes (72 questions) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A: Global Internet Architecture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>B: Internet Naming, Identifiers and Digital Identities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>C: User trends </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Respondents expressed their level of agreement (five levels offered): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1 = I definitely agree </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2 = I rather agree </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3 = Uncertain / No opinion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4 = I rather do not agree </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5 = I do not agree at all </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Added a “Closing Part” (6 classification questions) </li></ul>

6. Characteristics of the Sample of Respondents <ul><li>Not all respondents have completed answering the whole questionnaire </li></ul><ul><ul><li>164 respondents answered Part A ==> “RA” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>137 of “RA” answered Part B ==> “RB” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>135 of “RB” answered part C ==> “RC” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>131 of “RC” answered Part D (classification questions) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Invitation for participation sent by e-mail to AFNIC’s close friends and targeted mailing-lists </li></ul><ul><li>Invited respondent had the permission to spread the invitation on their turn to IP professionals from within their circle of friends/colleagues </li></ul><ul><li>A high propagation level observed within the Irish community (one of AFNIC’s Scientific Council members is Irish ;-)) </li></ul><ul><li>No geographic representativeness is claimed </li></ul>

7. Characteristics of the Respondents: Geographic distribution <ul><li>No geographic representativeness is claimed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Invited respondents had the permission to spread the invitation to IT professionals within their circle of friends/colleagues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A high propagation level observed within the Irish community (note: one of AFNIC’s Scientific Council members is Irish  </li></ul></ul>

8. Characteristics of the Respondents: Type of organization <ul><li>Distribution is quite well balanced </li></ul>

9. Characteristics of the Respondents: Profession <ul><li>Distribution is quite well balanced </li></ul>

11. Backdrop Construction Methodology <ul><li>Aggregation of modalities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Definitely agree” & “Rather agree” ==> “in favor” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Rather do not agree” & “Do not agree at all” ==> “opposed” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Define the notions of consensus and a divergence of opinion </li></ul><ul><li>Consensus </li></ul><ul><ul><li>distribution of responses with a peak for “in favor” aggregate modality, without serious alternative point of view (PoV) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>"alternative PoV" = the one which is not predominant </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A double threshold is set: 60% for the predominant PoV and 20% for the alternative PoV (minority) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For each part (A-C), extract a list of questions leading to a consensus based on the criteria above </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>That make the basis of the backdrop </li></ul></ul>

12. Backdrop Construction Methodology (cont’) <ul><li>Divergence: 2 scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Two schools (“ 2S ”): 2 peaks of opposite PoV. Such difference of PoV reflects the existence of "two schools" of thought about the question, which leads us to consider two conflicting scenarios in our technology backdrop </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ No visibility” (“ NV ”): One a peak of uncertainty highly dominant with relation to the opposed PoV. There is no conclusion one can draw. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Indicators defined </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ ad”: The “absolute difference between the opposed PoV”. (difference between the two alternative peaks) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The higher this difference, the more strongly one of these two opinions prevails over the other </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ r”: The weight of alternative PoV compared to the “uncertainty level”. If this ratio is low, that means there is a low visibility in the future on that question </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Thresholds and criteria </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ 2S” is deemed met if ad < 20% and r > 1.5 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ NV” is deemed met if “uncertainty level” > 33% and ad < 20% </li></ul></ul>

14. Results: Consensus on part A (“Global Internet Architecture”) 8% 19% 73% 4. Mobile phone services will be based on IP 10% 17% 73% 27. Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against Internet infrastructure and applications will increase 9% 9% 82% 24. Open standards will remain dominant for Internet applications 9% 7% 85% 2. The Internet will remain the dominant infrastructure for worldwide data exchange Threshold: <= 10% Threshold: >= 70% (4 consensus) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question

15. Results: Consensus on part A (cont’) (“Global Internet Architecture”) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question 11% 24% 65% 5. IPv6 will be more widely used than IPv4 on the Internet 12% 23% 65% 15. Many new customer services will be based on sensor networks and RFID 15% 20% 65% 1. The number of regular users of the Internet will exceed 4 billion 13% 21% 66% 31. IP mobility services ("Mobile IP" or some alternative solution) will be widely deployed 13% 18% 69% 19. Pervasive environmental concerns will push Internet architects and equipment vendors to seek and adopt "green" solutions both for hardware components and for communication protocols Threshold: <= 15% Threshold: >= 60% (9 consensus)

16. Results: Consensus on part B (“Internet naming, identifiers and identities”) 12% 19% 69% 45. The DNS will be more secure than it is today 12% 16% 72% 33. Internet naming will continue to be based on the current hierarchical and distributed structure 12% 15% 73% 46. The domain name will remain the basis of the majority of identification systems used by Internet applications (for example: URL, URN, URI...) 14% 8% 78% 54. The Internet user will use multiple digital identities Threshold: <= 15% Threshold: >= 60% (9 consensus) 9% 17% 74% 36. The DNS, as an infrastructure, will be considered even more critical than it is today Threshold: <= 10% Threshold: >= 70% (1 consensus) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question

17. Results: Consensus on part B (cont’) (“Internet naming, identifiers and identities”) 12% 26% 62% 43. The root and the majority of DNS zones will be signed with DNSSEC 11% 27% 62% 37. Besides its well-known role, the DNS will increasingly be used as a "mapping" system by new Internet infrastructure protocols(routing, multi-homing...) 10% 26% 64% 34. The DNS resolution mechanism currently based on "Client-Server" architecture and requiring a DNS tree traversal will remain dominant 15% 16% 69% 56. Privacy and "User's choice" will be at the center of Society's debate on the evolution of digital-identity technologies Threshold: <= 15% Threshold: >= 60% (9 consensus) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question

18. Results: Consensus on part C (“User trends”) Threshold: <= 10% Threshold: >= 70% (4 consensus) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question 7% 18% 76% 67. The need for traceability of goods will spread to all economic sectors 9% 7% 84% 61. Geolocation-based services will be integrated in a wide variety of mass consumer products 9% 5% 86% 66. Cars, trains, planes and ships will provide to travelers the same electronic services (including Internet access) as at the office or at home, in an almost transparent way (without taking the quality of service into account) 8% 2% 90% 59. A computer, a phone, a personal digital assistant (PDA) as well as new (forthcoming) types of equipment will support a wide set of common features for the general public

19. Results: Consensus on part C (cont’) (“User trends”) minority PoV (%) Uncertainty (%) prevailing PoV (%) Question 15% 12% 73% 60. Home automation services will reach maturity and will be affordable by all (at least in developed countries) 13% 15% 73% 58. The number of mobile phone (all generations included) subscribers will exceed 6 billion Threshold: <= 15% Threshold: >= 60% (6 consensus)

20. Outline <ul><li>Context, motivation & objectives of the technology backdrop survey </li></ul><ul><li>Survey Structure and characteristics of the respondents population </li></ul><ul><li>Backdrop construction for the global population </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Methodology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consensuses identified </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Divergences identified (Scenario approach) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Zoom inside categories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Are consensuses among the global population still applicable inside categories? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Are the divergence scenarios still applicable to categories? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusion and further work </li></ul>

21. Results: Divergence on part A (“Global Internet Architecture”) 0.76 10% 25% 40% 35% NV 9. A new type of architecture for Internet applications will be discovered and will be dominant 0.76 10% 35% 40% 25% NV 8. The majority of Internet applications will be based on peer-to-peer (P2P) architecture 2.06 6% 43% 20% 37% 2S 20. Energy consumption will be the main limitation on development of network *infrastructure* Threshold: > 2 (2S) Threshold: < 20% Threshold: > 33% (NV) (3 divergences) r ad Opposed (%) uncertainty (%) In favor (%) PoV Divergence Type Question

22. Results: Divergence on part A (cont’) (“Global Internet Architecture”) 1.66 1% 39% 23% 38% 2S 21. Attention to energy saving will be the main driving force for development of network *infrastructure* 1.55 1% 37% 24% 38% 2S 18. Proprietary standards, competing with the Internet ones, will emerge in order to facilitate development of the Internet of Things 1.55 5% 35% 24% 40% 2S 11. The "end-to-end" principle will be re-established and will underpin again Internet communications to the detriment of gateways (such as NAT) which will gradually disappear Threshold: > 1.5 (2S) (6 divergences) r ad Opposed (%) uncertainty (%) In favor (%) PoV Divergence Type Question

23. Results: Divergence on part B (“Internet naming, identifiers and identities”) Threshold: > 2 (2S) Threshold: < 20% Threshold: > 33% (NV) (2 divergences) r ad Opposed (%) uncertainty (%) In favor (%) PoV Divergence Type Question 1.95 8% 36% 20% 44% 2S 49. In telephony networks, the phone number will remain the most used identifier by both end-user and intermediate systems Threshold: > 1.5 (2S) (3 divergences) 0.66 10% 23% 43% 34% NV 52. The Semantic Web will govern information exchange between people 2.76 10% 47% 15% 37% 2S 55. Concerns about privacy will be eroded due to widespread uptake of services based on digital identities

24. Results: Divergence on part C (“User trends”) Threshold: > 2 (2S) Threshold: < 20% Threshold: > 33% (NV) (2 divergences) r ad Opposed (%) uncertainty (%) In favor (%) PoV Divergence Type Question 2.0 3% 41% 20% 39% Deux écoles Most of face-to-face meetings/conferences will be replaced by (network) remote-meetings/remote-conferences Threshold: > 1.5 (2S) (3 divergences) 0.43 6% 20% 54% 26% NV 70. A new model for Internet applications (as seen by users) will emerge and will subsequently become dominant 0.75 11% 36% 40% 24% NV 69. The majority of Internet applications (as seen by users) will follow a peer-to-peer model

25. Outline <ul><li>Context, motivation & objectives of the technology backdrop survey </li></ul><ul><li>Survey Structure and characteristics of the respondents population </li></ul><ul><li>Backdrop construction for the global population </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Methodology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consensuses identified </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Divergences identified (Scenario approach) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Zoom inside categories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Are consensuses among the global population still applicable inside categories? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Are the divergence scenarios still applicable to categories? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusion and future work </li></ul>

26. Results: Consensus within professional categories Conss “in favor” Conss if thr of pr PoV=60% Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 27. Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against Internet infrastructure and applications will increase Conss “in favor” Conss if thr of pr PoV=60% Conss if thr minority PoV=15% Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 36. The DNS, as an infrastructure, will be considered even more critical than it is today Conss “in favor” Conss if thr minority PoV=15% Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 24. Open standards will remain dominant for Internet applications Conss “in favor” Conss if thr of pr PoV=60% 4. Mobile phone services will be based on IP Conss “in favor” Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 2. The Internet will remain the dominant infrastructure for worldwide data exchange Global population (reminder) (131) Other (15) Engineer (52) Professor-researcher (14) Technology advisor (28) Decision-maker (22) <ul><li>Reminder for the default thresholds for consensus: </li></ul><ul><li>thr for prevailing PoV: 70% </li></ul><ul><li>thr for minority PoV: 10% </li></ul>

27. Results: Consensus within professional categories (cont’) Conss “in favor” 67. The need for traceability of goods will spread to all economic sectors Conss “in favor” Conss if thr minority PoV=15% Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 66. Cars, trains, planes and ships will provide to travellers the same electronic services (including Internet access) as at the office or at home, in an almost transparent way (without taking the quality of service into account) Conss. “in favor” Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 61. Geolocation-based services will be integrated in a wide variety of mass consumer products Conss. “in favor” Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 59. A computer, a phone, a personal digital assistant (PDA) as well as new (forthcoming) types of equipment will support a wide set of common features for the general public Global population (reminder) (131) Other (15) Engineer (52) Professor-researcher (14) Technology advisor (28) Decision-maker (22) <ul><li>Reminder for the default thresholds for consensus: </li></ul><ul><li>thr for prevailing PoV: 70% and </li></ul><ul><li>thr for minority PoV: 10% </li></ul>

28. Results: Consensus within organization categories Conss. “ i n favor” Conss if thr minority PoV=15% Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 36. The DNS, as an infrastructure, will be considered even more critical than it is today Conss. “ i n favor” 27. Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against Internet infrastructure and applications will increase Conss. “ i n favor” Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 24. Open standards will remain dominant for Internet applications Conss. “ i n favor” Conss if thr of pr PoV=60% 4. Mobile phone services will be based on IP Conss. “ i n favor” Unanimous 2. The Internet will remain the dominant infrastructure for worldwide data exchange Global population (reminder) (131) Other (15) Freelance (7) Prvt. enterp. / lab. (45) Non-profit org. (27) Pub. enterp. / lab. (29) Gover. agency (10) <ul><li>Reminder for the default thresholds for consensus: </li></ul><ul><li>thr for prevailing PoV: 70% and </li></ul><ul><li>thr for minority PoV: 10% </li></ul>

29. Results: Consensus within organization categories (cont’) Conss. “ i n favor” 67. The need for traceability of goods will spread to all economic sectors Conss. “ i n favor” Unanimous Conss if thr minority PoV=15% Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 66. Cars, trains, planes and ships will provide to travellers the same electronic services (including Internet access) as at the office or at home, in an almost transparent way (without taking the quality of service into account) Conss. “ i n favor” Unanimous Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 61. Geolocation-based services will be integrated in a wide variety of mass consumer products Conss. “ i n favor” Unanimous Conss if thr minority PoV=15% 59. A computer, a phone, a personal digital assistant (PDA) as well as new (forthcoming) types of equipment will support a wide set of common features for the general public Global population (reminder) (131) Other (15) Freelance (7) Prvt. enterp. / lab. (45) Non-profit org. (27) Pub. enterp. / lab. (29) Gover. agency (10) <ul><li>Reminder for the default thresholds for consensus: </li></ul><ul><li>thr for prevailing PoV: 70% and </li></ul><ul><li>thr for minority PoV: 10% </li></ul>

31. Results: Divergence within professional categories NV No concl. ( thr not reached) 52. The Semantic Web will govern information exchange between people 2S “ 2S” if r=1.5 “ 2S” if r=1.5 No concl. ( thr not reached) 20. Energy consumption will be the main limitation on development of network *infrastructure* NV No concl. ( thr not reached) “ 2S” (instead of “NV”) 9. A new type of architecture for Internet applications will be discovered and will be dominant NV No concl. ( thr not reached) No concl. ( thr not reached) 8. The majority of Internet applications will be based on peer-to-peer (P2P) architecture Global population (reminder) (131) Other (15) Engineer (52) Professor-researcher (14) Technology advisor (28) Decision-maker (22) <ul><li>Reminder : </li></ul><ul><li>thr for the “absolute difference between the opposed PoV”: ad = 20% </li></ul><ul><li>thr for uncertainty level: 33% (for the “No visibility” scenario) </li></ul><ul><li>thr for the rate “alternative PoV / uncertainty level”): r =2 (for the “2 Schools” scenario) </li></ul>

32. Results: Divergence within professional categories (cont’) NV No concl. ( thr not reached) No concl. ( thr not reached) 70. A new model for Internet applications (as seen by users) will emerge and will subsequently become dominant NV No concl. ( thr not reached) No concl. ( thr not reached) No concl. ( thr not reached) 69. The majority of Internet applications (as seen by users) will follow a peer-to-peer model 2S No concl. ( thr not reached) “ 2S” if r=1.5 No concl. ( thr not reached) 55. Concerns about privacy will be eroded due to widespread uptake of services based on digital identities Global population (reminder) (131) Other (15) Engineer (52) Professor-researcher (14) Technology advisor (28) Decision-maker (22) <ul><li>Reminder : </li></ul><ul><li>thr for the “absolute difference between the opposed PoV”: ad = 20% </li></ul><ul><li>thr for uncertainty level: 33% (for the “No visibility” scenario) </li></ul><ul><li>thr for the rate “alternative PoV / uncertainty level”): r =2 (for the “2 Schools” scenario) </li></ul>

33. Results: Divergence within “organization” categories NV No concl. ( thr not reached) 52. The Semantic Web will govern information exchange between people 2S No concl. ( thr not reached) “ 2S” if r=1.5 NV (instead of 2S) 20. Energy consumption will be the main limitation on development of network *infrastructure* NV No concl. ( thr not reached) No concl. ( thr not reached) 9. A new type of architecture for Internet applications will be discovered and will be dominant NV No concl. ( thr not reached) 8. The majority of Internet applications will be based on peer-to-peer (P2P) architecture Global population (reminder) (131) Other (15) Freelance (7) Prvt. enterp. / lab. (45) Non-profit org. (27) Pub. enterp / lab. (29) Govern. agency (10) <ul><li>Reminder : </li></ul><ul><li>thr for the “absolute difference between the opposed PoV”: ad = 20% </li></ul><ul><li>thr for uncertainty level: 33% (for the “No visibility” scenario) </li></ul><ul><li>thr for the rate “alternative PoV / uncertainty level”): r =2 (for the “2 Schools” scenario) </li></ul>

34. Results: Divergence within “organization” categories (cont’) NV No concl. ( thr not reached) No concl. ( thr not reached) 70. A new model for Internet applications (as seen by users) will emerge and will subsequently become dominant NV No concl. ( thr not reached) 69. The majority of Internet applications (as seen by users) will follow a peer-to-peer model 2S Conss “opposed” with thr 60% / 20% Conss ”in favor” with thr 70% / 20% 55. Concerns about privacy will be eroded due to widespread uptake of services based on digital identities Global population (reminder) (131) Other (15) Freelance (7) Prvt. enterp. / lab. (45) Non-profit org. (27) Pub. enterp / lab. (29) Govern. agency (10) <ul><li>Reminder : </li></ul><ul><li>thr for the “absolute difference between the opposed PoV”: ad = 20% </li></ul><ul><li>thr for uncertainty level: 33% (for the “No visibility” scenario) </li></ul><ul><li>thr for the rate “alternative PoV / uncertainty level”): r =2 (for the “2 Schools” scenario) </li></ul>

36. Conclusion <ul><li>A technology backdrop may be useful for an IT company’s strategic plan </li></ul><ul><li>Consensuses may help to take the “right orientation” </li></ul><ul><li>In the presence of divergences or in the absence of visibility: opportunities & risks should be assessed </li></ul><ul><li>Consensuses and divergence scenarios have been identified </li></ul><ul><li>Some consensuses and divergence cases do not equally apply when respondents in a single category are considered </li></ul>

37. Further work <ul><li>Retry the survey? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Compare trends for the same questions (on a sliding 10-15-year window)? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Add new questions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Periodic basis? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hire many more participants next time? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Try to get a much more representative sample on various criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Share results and thoughts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What about a regularly updated technology backdrop for CENTR members? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Learn from other’s backdrop </li></ul>

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