The challenges for the Euro Area, the challenges for the ADEMU Horizon 2020 Reasearch Project

1. “Reassessing
the
EU
Monetary
and
Fiscal
Framework:
a
challenge
for
the
Euro
Area,
a
challenge
for
the
ADEMU
Horizon
2020
Project”
Ramon
Marimon
ADEMU
Project
Scienti4ic
Coordinator,
European
University
Institute
&
UPF
–
Barcelona
GSE

4. ADEMU
4

5.
1. The
Fiscal
Compact
– Eco.
stab.
&
limiting
redistribution
with
4iscal
restraint?
2. The
European
Stability
Mechanism
(ESM)
– As
a
crisis
prevention
or
risk
sharing
mechanism?
3. The
European
Banking
Union
(EBU)
– Financial
stab.
&
breaking
the
link
private–sovereign
debt?
4.
The
Macroeconomic
Imbalance
Procedure
(MIP)
– Peer
or
real
pressure,
to
coordinate
structural
reforms,
4iscal
policies
and
prevent
macroeconomic
imbalances?
+
The
European
Central
Bank
(ECB)
– Providing
‘4iring
power’
to
ESM
&
control
to
EBU?
The strength of the Euro Area: !
The ECB & 4 new pieces since 2010

6. The strength of the ECB through the Euro crisis: !
Spreads in the EA & Draghi’s “whatever it takes”

7. The weakness of our deeper recessions!
(“Five
Presidents’
Report:
Analytical
Note
”,
February
2015)

8. The weakness of moving apart!
(“European
Economic
Snapshot”,
T.
Cooley
et
al.,
Sept.
2015)

9. The weakness of the Human Capital divide: !
Labour productivity in the EA (EU 28 = 100)

10.
1. The
Fiscal
Compact
– Where
is
the
credibility
test?
2. The
European
Stability
Mechanism
(ESM)
– What
about
the
risk
sharing
mechanism?
3. The
European
Banking
Union
(EBU)
– Almost
there…
but
no
need
for
a
4iscal
backup?
4.
The
Macroeconomic
Imbalance
Procedure
(MIP)
–
Too
much
to
be
handled
with
just
peer
pressure?
+
The
European
Central
Bank
(ECB)
–
Monetary
and
Fiscal
policy
without...
The weakness of the Euro Area: !
The ECB & 4 immature and incomplete pieces

11. the missing body?

12. These are questions on the table of

13. ---
...
...
Eurogroup
European Council
Council of the European Union
The Eurogroup is an informal body where the ministers of the euro area member states discuss matters
relating to their shared responsibilities related to the euro.
Its main task is to ensure close coordination of economic policies among the euro area member states. It
also aims to promote conditions for stronger economic growth.
the informal body:

14. the body:

15. them talking:
5 Presidents reporting:
…et al.

16. These are questions that require !
and stimulate research
• On
how
4iscal
and
monetary
policies
interact,
and
should
interact,
in
a
heterogeneous
Fiscal
and
Monetary
Union.
• On
how
to
achieve
debt
sustainability,
risk-­‐sharing
and
4inancial
stability.
• On
the
political
economy,
and
the
legal
requirements,
of
designing
credible
policies
and
institutions.
• On
how
to
avoid
negative
spillovers
and
build
trust.
• On
how
to
learn
from
past
crises
and
jointly
thrive.

17. hFp://ademu-­‐project.eu
Horizon
2020
The
Framework
Programme
for
Research
and
InnovaAon
policy oriented basic research,
as the one of

18. The consortium
List of Participants:
Participant No Participant Organisation name Country
1 (Coordinator) European University Institute (EUI) Italy
2 University of Cambridge (CAM) UK
3 University of Bonn, (BGSE) Germany
4 Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) France
5 University College London (UCL) UK
6 Catholic University of Portugal (CUP) Portugal
7 Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (BcnGSE) Spain
8 Charles University in Prague (CERGE) Czech Republic

19. The structure

20. The people
• 50
researchers
in
the
project
• PhD
students
getting
involved
– ADEMU
Working
Groups
(e.g.
EUI
with
18
PhD
res.)
• 35
Associate
Researchers…
• Support
team:
– Project
manager:
Margherita
Fabbri
– Project
4inance:
Serena
Scarcelli
– Dissemination
team:
Clara
Kirchner
&
Sarah
Grosvenor

21. The ADEMU Advisory Committee
• Thomas
F.
Cooley
(NYU
–
Stern)
[Chair]
• Sir
Charles
Bean
(LSE)
• José
Manuel
Campa
(IESE
&
Grupo
Santander)
• Jean-­‐Pierre
Danthine
(Swiss
National
Bank)
• Lars
Peter
Feld
(Walter
Eucken
Institut
&
University
of
Freiburg)
• Lucrezia
Reichlin
(London
Business
School)
• Thomas
J.
Sargent
(New
York
University)
• René
Smits
(University
of
Amsterdam)

22. The research Work Packages
1. Long-­‐term
sustainability
of
a
monetary
and
fiscal
union
2. StabilisaAon
policy
in
currency
unions
3. Macroeconomic
and
financial
imbalances
and
spillovers
4. Policy
ImplementaAon

23. The horizon
Final Conference:
The
state
of
the
Van
Rompuy
roadmap
in
2018
Florence,
March
2018
Hosted
by
the
European
University
Institute