Spatial Data andAnalysis in Supportof Improved Policyand PlanningChristopher Aurichtchris@auricht.comJohn DixonJohn.Dixon@...
2Talk outline Context   and Background Needs Issuesand status of spatial data Methodology used in developing an update...
3Facts According     to CGIAR analysis    One billion of the worlds poor within Africa and     Asia (those living on les...
4One Billion People Suffer ChronicHunger and Poverty
5 Scale of Rural Hunger    Nearly one billion people experience     debilitation, health-threatening hunger each year   ...
6Hunger Hotspots Superimposed on FarmingSystems     Source: InterACADEMY Council 2004
8Background   Business as usual investments in agriculture unlikely to    deliver sustainable solutions in many countries...
9Needs Requiresa strategic approach, an appreciation of scale, and an understanding of the interactions between and withi...
10The current ACIAR project Builds       on the work of Dixon et al 2001    www.fao.org/farmingsystems/
112001 Farming Systems and Poverty   Global study – part of the World Bank Rural Sector Review   Widely accepted as pion...
12Program Application        Major rivers       Major Lakes       National Boundaries       Regional Programme       Count...
13Hunger Hotspots and Farming Systems
14Sub-Saharan Update  Farming   systems website in FAO still one of the   most visited sites within the organisation  Pr...
15Current Situation   2012 – Large quantity of potential datasets – approx. 300    alone in the Harvest Choice database ...
16Methodology  Work  in collaborative fashion with authors and other large  data providers e.g. IFPRI – Harvest Choice, U...
17Approach Integration   of new datasets –     LGP and Market access Supporting    Datasets     Population (rural, urb...
18                               Hunger, Poverty & Productivity                        Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analyt...
19Changes between 2001 and 2012
20Updated FS Boundaries and LGP
21Yield Gap – Aggregate of Major Crops
22
23Big questions for management and policy  What is it?  Where is it?  What are its characteristics and how does it   op...
24Spatial data  Tool to support process  Understand  Analyse  Develop interventions  Monitor  Not the answer in itse...
25Thanks Acknowledgements    ACIAR    IFPRI – Harvest Choice    CGIAR    ILRI    ICRAF    FAO    IIASA    others...
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Mapping farming systems in Africa 21 June 2012

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Christopher Auricht and John Dixon

ACIAR

21 June 2012

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  • Yellow is areas where there is potential for improved yields.
  • Mapping farming systems in Africa 21 June 2012

    1. 1. Spatial Data andAnalysis in Supportof Improved Policyand PlanningChristopher Aurichtchris@auricht.comJohn DixonJohn.Dixon@aciar.gov.auACIARCanberra21 June 2012
    2. 2. 2Talk outline Context and Background Needs Issuesand status of spatial data Methodology used in developing an updated farming systems dataset and analysis for Sub- Saharan Africa Status and future work
    3. 3. 3Facts According to CGIAR analysis  One billion of the worlds poor within Africa and Asia (those living on less than $1 per day) are fed primarily by:  hundreds of millions of small-holder farmers (often with less than 2 ha of land, several crops, and a cow or two), or  Herders (most with fewer than five large animals)Solution Developsustainable farming systems that improve efficiency gains to produce increased food production
    4. 4. 4One Billion People Suffer ChronicHunger and Poverty
    5. 5. 5 Scale of Rural Hunger  Nearly one billion people experience debilitation, health-threatening hunger each year  4 out of 5 of these people are rural farmers Trends in maize shortage in Zambia Percentage of farm households with maize shortageThe HungerPeriod
    6. 6. 6Hunger Hotspots Superimposed on FarmingSystems Source: InterACADEMY Council 2004
    7. 7. 8Background Business as usual investments in agriculture unlikely to deliver sustainable solutions in many countries Numerous issues often identified as barriers to progress e.g. inefficiencies in program delivery, political uncertainty etc. These are not the only problem! Existing systems (often under stress) have been, and are expected to continue to accommodate large increases in population, increasing urbanisation, rising demand for animal products and competition for land and water Forecasts suggesting that current practices will not stay abreast with population growth, environmental change and increasing demand for animal products.
    8. 8. 9Needs Requiresa strategic approach, an appreciation of scale, and an understanding of the interactions between and within systems
    9. 9. 10The current ACIAR project Builds on the work of Dixon et al 2001 www.fao.org/farmingsystems/
    10. 10. 112001 Farming Systems and Poverty Global study – part of the World Bank Rural Sector Review Widely accepted as pioneering body of work – looked at things as a ‘surface’ across landscape not confined by country borders Largely driven by LGP/AEZ and market access, supplemented by expert opinion Extensively used to guide investment at the program level and frame analysis in numerous global studies Approach focused on high level farming systems within six developing regions Involved use of various thematic data layers to underpin the delineation, characterisation / description and subsequent analysis of systems
    11. 11. 12Program Application Major rivers Major Lakes National Boundaries Regional Programme Countries # Major Farming Systems 1. Irrigation 2. Tree crop 3. Forest based Uganda 4. Rice-tree crop Kenya Rwanda 5. Highland perennial 6. Highland temperate mixed Tanzania Malawi 7. Root crops 8. Cereal-root crops mixed e qu Zambia bi 9. Maize mixed am oz Zimbabwe M 11. Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum 10. Large commercial and smallholder 12. Pastoral N 13. Sparse (arid) 900 0 900 Kilomete rs 14. Coastal artisanal fishing
    12. 12. 13Hunger Hotspots and Farming Systems
    13. 13. 14Sub-Saharan Update  Farming systems website in FAO still one of the most visited sites within the organisation  Previous study 10 years old  Consistent seamless datasets somewhat limited in original work  In need of updating as spatial extent of systems and frame conditions changed e.g. climate, population, urbanisation, market access etc.  Many updated and new datasets available
    14. 14. 15Current Situation 2012 – Large quantity of potential datasets – approx. 300 alone in the Harvest Choice database  longitudinal and some predictive data now available GAEZ 3.0 - 1,000’s of datasets representing 100’s of thematic layers Challenge – which ones to use and how Strategic approach  Access and collation  Assess (fit-for-purpose) and Prioritise (currency, coverage, scale etc)  Process  Products  Disseminate
    15. 15. 16Methodology  Work in collaborative fashion with authors and other large data providers e.g. IFPRI – Harvest Choice, UN-FAO, ILRI, ICRAF, IIASA, CGIAR others Delineate new Farming System Boundaries – Iterative process based on concept of central Spatial tendancy and Tabular Characterise and . Data describe systems Statistics and Analysis
    16. 16. 17Approach Integration of new datasets –  LGP and Market access Supporting Datasets  Population (rural, urban, total)  Livestock – cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, LU and TLU  Crop areas and production  Yield gaps  Protected areas  Poverty  $2.00 and $1.25 /day  Nutrition
    17. 17. 18 Hunger, Poverty & Productivity Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow Terrain, Demograph Production Production Interventions/ Linkage to y, Environment & Systems & Responses Macro Infrastructure, Admi Constraints Performance Models n Units 7 Maize Yield Potential 6 t[DM]/ha 5 4 3 2 40 1 30 20 0 10 Irrigation 0 100 Threshold 80 NA % of Available 60 40 Fertilizer Application Rate 20 Soil Water 0 kg[N]/ha Settlements, ports, & Cropland Runoff Crop Yield Responses to Inputs, Management, CC Slope, travel times marketsDiseases (Maize Stem Farming & Rural of small Aggregate to FPUsPort travel times & costs Drought extent & CropProduction perQuantity of Nutrients RemovedMarket Administrative costsAgroecological intensityBorer) Road, rail, river, ICT networks IncidenceZones Suitability: SystemsFertilizerscale irrigation Elevation aspect, drainage & Pests Units Value of Distribution Rainfed Wheat ofProfitability & Severity Profitability Person Welfare Benefits Distribution YieldsSource: HarvestChoice 2010
    18. 18. 19Changes between 2001 and 2012
    19. 19. 20Updated FS Boundaries and LGP
    20. 20. 21Yield Gap – Aggregate of Major Crops
    21. 21. 22
    22. 22. 23Big questions for management and policy  What is it?  Where is it?  What are its characteristics and how does it operate ?  What are the risks/threats ?  What are the opportunities (Research / Extension) ?  How changing with time ?  Evaluation and Performance
    23. 23. 24Spatial data  Tool to support process  Understand  Analyse  Develop interventions  Monitor  Not the answer in itself   has limitations  Fit for purpose  Complement with expert knowledge
    24. 24. 25Thanks Acknowledgements  ACIAR  IFPRI – Harvest Choice  CGIAR  ILRI  ICRAF  FAO  IIASA  others Questions & Discussion

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