African Agricultural Futures: Opportunities, Challenges & Priorities

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African Agricultural Futures: Opportunities, Challenges & Priorities - Dr Siwa Msangi, Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and AIFSC Project Coordinator for "Strategic Foresight for African Agriculture"

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African Agricultural Futures: Opportunities, Challenges & Priorities

  1. 1. African Agricultural Futures: Opportunities, Challenges & Priorities Siwa MsangiEnvironment & Production Technology Division, IFPRI
  2. 2. In this presentation, I will… Provide brief overview of the important drivers of change in African agriculture Make an argument for future-oriented assessments and point to the kinds of studies that have been done Show why they have not given an adequate treatment of African agriculture Point to some key areas of uncertainty that remain about Africa’s agricultural future Discuss some insights from Africa-focused studies and an expert assessment on foresight for Africa Draw some final conclusions and recommendations Page 2
  3. 3. Why do future studies for agriculture?To explore areas of uncertainty to better understandwhich might be the real ‘game changers’ in future In the business world – foresight is used as a way of challenging assumptions about future growth potential The future of agriculture will be shaped by uncertain driving forces of supply and demand Focus on the most important drivers of change to see their influence under alternative trajectories Helps in the process of planning and prioritizing investments that take a long time to have effect Page 3
  4. 4. Importantdrivers ofchange inagriculture &food systems
  5. 5. Key drivers of future agricultureSome drivers of change act on a short and fast timescale – while others act over a longer time period Short-term drivers (export bans, crop failures) lead to near-term ‘blips’ and market shocks that allow limited time for adjustment More substantial changes in policies (shift in trade regime) take time to implement will exert effects w/in a longer time frame The very slow-moving drivers (climate change & the impacts of ag R&D) will take much longer to be felt – and need a much longer-term perspective for analysis Page 5
  6. 6. Characterizing drivers of change Page 6
  7. 7. The type of assessment varies by timescaleStudies will differ according to whether they want toconsider shorter- or longer-term forces of change Short-term outlooks might consider outcomes over a year or two ahead (market intelligence) Medium-term outlooks will consider a ‘baseline’ trend over 10-15 years under current policies and contrast that with alternative policy impacts (OECD-FAO, FAPRI, USDA outlooks) Longer-term studies of 20-30 years look at effects of more gradual drivers of change w/in complex storylines of political-economic change (GEO-4, Millennium Assessment, IAASTD, IPCC) Page 7
  8. 8. What do these assessments say about Africa? Many of these global assessments tend to be rather coarse in their treatment of agriculture in SS Africa  Since Africa’s share of global trade is relatively small – it tends to get highly aggregated (single region or part of RoW)  Coverage of data in SS Africa tends to be relatively poor compared to other regions  The underlying driving forces and production systems tend not to be well understood  The tremendous heterogeneity w/in SS Africa tends to get missed in these studies Page 8
  9. 9. Key messages from IFPRI assessmentsIFPRI has undertaken more detailed medium- to long-term outlooks of African agriculture & its key drivers Reflects a steady growth in cereals consumption patterns – mostly as food (incl coarse grains like millet & sorghum which are feed elsewhere) Lots of un-tapped potential for irrigation remains – requires more to come from rainfed production Meat consumption also projected to grow steadily, although from lower per capita levels compared with other regions of the world Calorie availability improves to 2030 and beyond (with acceleration after 2015) – overall reduction in malnutrition progress (but not as fast as in Asia) Page 9
  10. 10. Changing population – both size and composition Total population growth (2000-2030) Urbanization growth (2000-2030)
  11. 11. Food consumption growth to 2030 Total cereals consumptionTotal meat consumption Page 11
  12. 12. Production growth to 2030 Cereals productionMeat production Page 12
  13. 13. Sources of cereal production growth to 2030 Page 13
  14. 14. Key sources of uncertainty in African AgThere are a number of key areas of uncertainty thatneed exploration in the future of African agriculture The implications for urbanization and wider socio-economic growth on diets & demand The effects that agribusiness & commercial interests will have on value chains & the rural sector (‘land grabs’, farm size trends) How important will Africa’s internal trade be in future compared to exchange with RoW? The impacts of climate change & incr variability on various regions of SS Africa Page 14
  15. 15. Exploration of African agricultural futuresHeld a recent expert consultation to discuss somecritical future drivers of change & their implications Get a perspective of major issues driving change in Eastern, Southern & West Africa Identify some common challenges faced in quantifying African agricultural futures in terms of data and methodology In addition to the issues of urbanization, agribusiness and climate change • The importance of the informal sector • The needed ‘pull’ of non-agricultural sectors Page 15
  16. 16. Some insights from Southern Africa Consistent demand growth expectedConsumption Growth in demand for potatoes (18%) and wheat-based patterns products (20%) -- while maize meal demand remains stagnant Demand for beef expected to grow at annual rate of 3% p.a.,Resource use Resource constraints will continue to heavily revolve around patterns land and water availability Production Sources of increased production likely to come from patterns intensification and not land expansion Close linkage b/w dynamics of commodity and energy markets Slowed domestic and global economic growth will keep SA rand Market strong with very gradual depreciation in exchange rateenvironment Uncertainty will persist over policy environment with market deregulation and changes in trade tariff regime From BFAP 2012 Outlook Page 16
  17. 17. Important messages for AIFSC There are gains to be made in improving ag performance in SS Africa – that ACIAR & partners can contribute towards • Low-hanging fruit remains in terms of closing yield gaps • Better market connections can help farmers to do this • More irrigation potential can be exploited but more will still need to come from rainfed production Patterns of urbanization & socio-economic growth will provide important sources of future demand Some of Africa’s best market potential in future will be within its own borders and between neighbors – regional bodies (ECOWAS, COMESA, EAC) can help Agribusiness (foreign & domestic) will continue to be an important player in shaping value chains w/in Africa
  18. 18. THANK YOU!

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