DR HAMID HUSSAIN ON AFGHAN PEACE

1. COMMENTS OF DR HAMID HUSSAIN
Thanks Agha for the piece and your very valid comments.
Sam is a good chap but to try to read tea leaves of
Afghanistan is no easy task and surely Staff College
Quetta solutions are not applicable. Majority of Pakistanis
including otherwise well informed Pakistanis know only
basics but not aware of the details (this is based on my
own interactions with a large number of Pakistani officers
who directly dealt with Afghanistan over the last three
decades).
I tend to agree with you that next round of ‘buz kushi’ is
around the corner. The depth of anger and hatred of
many common Afghans as well as those who matter
against Pakistan is not taken into equation by Pakistani
policy makers. We do not need to agree with it but this
factor needs to be taken into the equation. I recall
comments by some Afghans as early as 2002 warning
their neighbors especially Pakistan & Iran. One Afghan
said that last time we simply left our land to become
refugees and neighbors tried to play the war game to the
last Afghan. He warned that this time, if neighbors don’t
change their behavior then we will make sure that winds of
destruction will not be limited to our homeland but will
send this fire right across the border. Food for thought for
Pakistan & Iran especially events of last two years.
There is another school though not influential. According
to this theory why US is sinking blood and treasure into
the bottomless pits of Afghanistan & Syria etc? US is in
competition or clash with many state and non-state actors

2. in both theatres and presence of US is actually beneficial
to all of them. They are gaining strength at US expense.
The ‘Mad House’ theory stipulates that actually by a rapid
withdrawal of US forces from both Afghanistan & Syria will
suck in all foes of America into that vaccum. In case of
Afghanistan, Pakistan and China on one side and Iran,
India and Russia on the other side will spend economic &
diplomatic resources. In case of Syria, Bashar, Iran,
Russia, Turkey, Gulf Sheikhdoms will bleed each other.
Decades of sanctions against Iran were not effective but
sucking Tehran in the sands of Afghanistan & Syria will
surely drain economy that will boomerang with public
anger that can erode the very foundations of the
Ayatollah’s rule.
Countries like Afghanistan & Syria and in fact every nation
with internal conflicts will still have these problems. World
will continue in it’s own ways of small and large wars even
if Americans simply sat on their armchair smoking Cuban
cigars. Imagine the carnage if they decide to use ethnic
and sectarian minorities. At the end of the day, everyone
needs to put their house in order to break this cycle of
violence.
As far as my own views are concerned about Afghanistan,
it has evolved. In the immediate aftermath of 11
September and US decision of marching towards
Afghanistan, I thought for a short while whether this could
be the moment for Afghanistan which Japan had in the
aftermath of defeat in Second World War. Japanese as a
nation took a historical detour that changed the destiny of

3. their people forever. There was hope that Afghanistan
may make that historical detour. In my euphoria, I
probably overlooked everything else especially history of
the region. I fully understood that patience has never
been an American virtue and this cast doubts on my part.
I was blindsided by another fact that American policy
revolved around presidential cycle every four years.
Halfway through the project (somewhere around 2006-07),
I came to the conclusion that US didn’t have the
knowledge, vision and mechanisms in place to carry on
with the project. Now, it was time to start disengagement
process and cut losses. This lingered on for another
decade and now we at the same cross road in 2019. I’ll
now prefer a more quick pull back probably within 2019
along with almost complete evacuation of diplomatic staff.
This will allow for more room of manouvrability in areas
where important US interests are concerned. Let the
smaller nations play the amateur version of the Great
Game that should be re-named Little Game. UN can be
given a larger role of bringing Afghans and their uncles in
the tent to sort things out.
“Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex and
more violent; but it takes a touch of genius and lots of courage
to move something in the opposite direction." Albert Einstein
Regards,
Hamid
comments---The last hurdle to Afghan peace

4. Major A.H Amin (Retired)

The last hurdle to Afghan peace
https://nation.com.pk/02-Feb-2019/the-last-hurdle-to-afghan-peace
Taliban and USA are in constant negotiations over withdrawal of US forces
from Afghanistan. A draft pact addressing mutual sensitivities is concluded.
The two parties facilitated by Pakistan will again meet towards end February
to build a roadmap on the skeletal agreement.
APPEARANCES ARE DECEIVING--- US HAS NO STRATEGY AND ITS
ACTIONS ARE ACTIONS OF A LAME DEPERATE PRESIDENT BESIEGED
BY SCANDALS AND A MINORITY IN CONGRESS--THIS MAKES HIM
MORE DESPERATE THAN THE MOST UNDERFED TALIBAN--MR TRUMP
WANTS TO NEGOTIATE A US WITHDRAWAL WHICH WOULD BE
COMPLETED BY THE TIME ELECTIONS ARE ON THE TOP AND HE MAY
WIN THE ELECTIONS---AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN CAN GO TO
HELL---A.H AMIN
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The best solutions must consider lessons learnt from the Soviet withdrawal in
1989, leaving power in hands of proxies and ignoring a broad based
representative government. A representative government for Afghanistan

5. does not mean democracy. Besides the people, it also means co-opting
various warring groups, warlords and educated elites. Links with drug mafia
and gun running are intrinsic. So unless these groups are satisfied, they have
many supporters to make them disruptive.
BROAD BASED REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT WAS NEVER THE
LESSON IN SOVIET AFGHAN WAR--- PAKISTAN HAD ITS STOOGES--
LOWEST RUNG MULLAHS LIKE HAQQANI WHO AS PER HIS ISI
HANDLER COL QASIM ABBAS STANK SO MUCH THAT THEN MAJOR
QASIM MADE HIM SIT IN THE OPEN BACK BODY OF HIS VEHICLE--
THERE WAS NO BROAD BASE IN SOVIET AFGHAN WAR AND NO
BROAD BASE NOW--ONLY STOOGES-PAKISTANI STOOGES OR
IRANIAN STOOGES OR AMERICAN STOOGES OR RUSSIAN STOOGES
OR INDIAN STOOGES---A.H AMIN
USA, the Afghan resistance, Taliban and Pakistan have been here before as
a resistance to Soviet occupation and then a broad based alliance approved
by Pakistan and USA.
Return of warlords gave meteoric rise to Taliban. They over ran most
Mujahedeen groups led by warlords and fought fierce battles with Al Qaeda.
AL QAEDA NEVER EXISTED -- FOUGHT AFGHAN WAR AS LOGISTICS
ADVISOR OF A SIDE --NEVER SAW AL QAEDA--BASED IN
AFGHANISTAN SINCE 2001--NEVER SAW AL QAEDA---DAESH IS ALSO
A FICTIONAL ENTITY THAT THE PAKISTANI STATE INVENTS WHEN IT
GUNS DOWN INNOCENTS LIKE AT SAHIWAL
Then came 9/11; a strategic time jump that caught everyone unprepared.
Taliban became the enemy and Pakistan an untrusted ally. The logic of
Afghan invasion was not built on strategic logic. Emotive factors of revenge,
hate and superiority slowly deflated egos. The cost in terms of bloodshed and
human misery has been colossal.

6. PAKISTAN WAS NEVER TRUSTED---BUT REALPOLITIKS HAD ITS
COMPULSIONS AND THE USA HAD DECIDED TO GET RID OF ZIA WELL
BEFORE HIS DEATH---A.H AMIN
The best chance for peace was created by Pakistan in 1996. All Afghan
factions had agreed to peace. During negotiations led by Nasser Ullah Babar,
Taliban agreed to moderating themselves and converting Afghanistan into a
federation with a power sharing formula. Benazir was unceremoniously
removed by President Leghari just a day after the draft agreement had been
agreed. Benazir Bhutto and Babar maintained it was the first non-military
coup. The draft peace agreement was forever lost.
THE TALIBAN HAD NEVER AGREED TO PEACE--THEIRS WAS A CLEAR
GAMBIT ---A COVER TO GAIN TIME IN 1996 AS NOW IN 2019---PLAIN
DECEPTION--BECAUSE TALIBAN WERE PROXIES IN 1996 AND
PROXIES NOW TODAY IN 2019 AND DO AS THEIR STATE HANDLERS
DIRECT THEM--- JUST LIKE PAKISTANI JUDGES FOLLOW THE
HANDLER--A.H AMIN
In 2002, it was with Benazir’s intervention that the Taliban agreed to make a
Lockerberie out of Osama Bin Laden. USA dissented and walked out of
negotiations that could have spared the world this War on Terror. Seymour
Hersh speculated her to be a victim of special assassination squads.FAR
FETCHED -- RIDICULOUS TO CLAIM THAT BENAZIR HAD ANY
LEVERAGE TO PERFORM SUCH A TESTING GYMNASTIC MANOEUVRE-
--A.H AMIN
Instability in Afghanistan provided leverage to intimidate Pakistan and also
checkmate China and Russia. For nearly two decades, Pakistan resisted the
instability trajectories framed against it. It became a nuclear power, endured
over a decade of sanctions, fought a decade long l counter terrorism
campaign and strengthened democracy.

7. PAKISTAN GAINED THE MOST ---ITS PUNJAB AND SINDH PROVINCES
GAINED INFRASTRUCTURE--- PAKISTANS ECONOMY SHOWED
HIGHEST GROWTH RATE IN SOVIET AFGHAN WAR AND US AFGHAN
WAR---PAKISTANI STATES MOST CREDIBLE INTERNAL THREAT
PASHTUN SEPARATISM WAS DEFEATED AND PASHTUNS DEGRADED
TO MOST MENIAL PAWNS OF THE PAKISTANI STATE---ALL WENT
WELL TILL MUSHARRAF AND KIANIS UNPROVOKED FABRICATED
FATA WAR MADE THE PASHTUNS ONCE AGAIN CHALLENGERS OF
THE PAKISTANI STATE
Objectives of keeping Afghanistan destabilised with domino effect on Pakistan
were never served. Though President Trump wants to get out, his logic may
not be shared by most around him. In the interim, various state and non-state
actors are positioning themselves for the ‘good, bad and ugly’.
ALL ALONG USA AS A STATE LACKED THE STRATEGIC RESOLUTION
TO CONFRONT THE PAKISTANI STATE OR EVEN DESTABILISE IT--- AT
THE HIGHEST LEVEL US DECISION MAKERS SPURNED INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY SUGGESTIONS TO FULLY FINANCE BALOCH
SEPARATISTS ETC
AS A DECLINING STATE USA WAS MEEK AND TIMID IN CONFRONTING
PAKISTAN THROUGHOUT---A.H AMIN
Vibes coming from Taliban are encouraging. They have shown readiness
towards moderation, power sharing and building an inclusive Afghanistan.
They are unwilling to talk to the Afghan government labelling it a US puppet.
Zalmay Khalilzad is back cajoling and convincing the Afghan government.
This is an onerous task for a diplomat notorious for his anti-Taliban and anti-
Pakistan stance. Most likely, he is once again adjusting his sails. Not to lag
behind, former President Hamid Karzai is also busy making himself relevant.
THERE ARE NO VIBES FROM TALIBAN---THEY ARE PAWNS AT
STRATEGIC LEVEL AND HAVE TO DO AS PAKISTANI HANDLERS TELL
THEM --- THE PRESENT SITUATION IS A STRATEGIC BLUFF AND
TALIBAN WILL ESCALATE AFTER USA LEAVES AFGHANISTAN

8. COMPLETELY--BY THAT TIME 2020 ELECTIONS WOULD HAVE BEEN
DECIDED-- EITHER TRUMP WOULD HAVE WON ELECTIONS OR LOST
THEM AND OF NO CONSEQUENCE--A.H AMIN
HOWEVER TALIBAN WILL NOT HAVE A CLEAN RUN AND WILL BE
CONTESTED AT LINE KABUL SHINDAND EVEN IF USA ABANDONS
AFGHANISTAN--THIS WOULD HAPPEN AS ANTI TALIBAN FORCES
WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY RUSSIA--IRAN--INDIA ETC--A.H AMIN
The prospects of ‘finally the peace’ are raised by President Trump who wants
his troops back home. There is some engagement in US-Pakistan military
diplomacy. Pakistan and USA air forces held a joint drill exercise to raise the
confidence building bar. The Taliban agreement with USA will not be possible
without Pakistan’s inclusion as a guarantor. It seems that in tandem, USA will
also reach consensus with Pakistan over mutually agreeable sensitivities. This
implies a major shift in US policy that kept the region unstable after withdrawal
of USSR. This major shift will be the biggest tumbling block to peace.
THIS IS AGAIN A TOTALLY FALLACIOUS PREMISE---US WITHDRAWAL
WOULD MULTIPLY INSTABILITY TEN FOLD AND FORCE THE INDIANS ,
IRANIANS AND RUSSIANS TO ACT 1000 TIMES MORE DESPERATELY
SO THAT TALIBAN ARE CONTAINED AT LINE KABUL SHINDAND--A.H
AMIN
There is no doubt that Pakistan is facilitating this latest round of diplomacy.
Indirectly, Pakistan’s proactive engagements and diplomacy in the Gulf is also
bearing fruit. Economic engagements provide multiple proportions to
economic corridors. This is a very positive sign; only so if it reaches its logical
conclusion. Pakistan is unilaterally allaying US fears.
AFGANISTAN WOULD REMAINED CONDEMNED TO WAR AS
PAKISTANI STATE CAN NEVER ACHIEVE COMPLETE DOMINATION ---
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TALIBAN ARE NOT WANTED BY AT LEAST

9. 50 % OF THE POPULATION---USA OR NO USA AFGHANISTAN WOULD
BE DIVIDED IN TWO PARTS--A.H AMIN
But there are detractors eager to subvert this diplomacy and throw it on a
tangent.
India and Afghanistan are not happy. It is evident that terrorist attack in Loralai
Pakistan was allegedly backed by Afghanistan as retaliation to a Taliban
attack on NDS headquarters in Wardak Afghanistan. Within the region, it is
street talk that NDS provides a cover to Indian RAW for terrorism inside
Pakistan.
SO MUCH WEEPING ABOUT LORALAI---AFGHAN STATE HAS BEEN
CONSTANTLY UNDER ATTACK SINCE 1978 BY PROXIES OPERATING
FROM PAKISTAN---IF POOR AMRULLAH SALEH VISITED LORALAI
TWICE WHY SO MUCH HUE AND CRY ? A.H AMIN
If peace does prevail in Afghanistan, India will be deprived of its major
springboard against Pakistan. India will also find itself isolated from the
economic activity in the region. How India will reposition itself is a question
that shall impact stability in Afghanistan. US director of National Intelligence
(DNI) did not mince his words in support of India.
INDIA AND IRAN WILL RETAIN THEIR POSITION IN AFGHANISTAN
WITHOUT US SUPPORT--- EVEN AFGHANS KNOW THAT THEY CANNOT
FACE THE TALIBAN WITHOUT INDIAN OR IRANIAN SUPPORT--- THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT COMPLETE TALIBAN VICTORY (ULTERIOR AIM
OF RAWALPINDI-ISLAMABAD) WILL NOT BE IN (1) RUSSIA (2) IRAN OR
(3) INDIAS INTEREST SO AFGANISTAN WOULD REMAIN CONTESTED--
A.H AMIN
Both Russia and China are also backing the peace process and reportedly in
constant contact with the Taliban leadership. Iran cannot be far behind. So

10. while Zalmay Khalilzad is busy with the Afghan government, Russia will be
hosting the Taliban and Afghan politicians opposed to President Ashraf Ghani
on Tuesday. The list includes former President Hamid Karzai. Russian role as
power broker is considered as muddling by a US official.
RUSSIA IS BACKING PEACE AS IT WANTS TO HAVE ITS OWN
TALIBAN-- ALREADY RUSSIANS AVE CREATED KHUD SAAKHTA
TALIBAN IN NORTH USING DOSTUM, NORTHERN ALLIANCE ETC--
CHINA AND PAKISTAN ARE ONE ENTITY --PAKISTAN BEING FUTURE
AUTONOMOUS REGION OF CHINA
The signals coming from USA are confusing. Many segments of US policy
making are not satisfied with the latest developments. This indicates
disagreements within the US establishment on the course of future policy
objectives.
THE INTELLLIGENCE COMMUNITY IS DAGGERS DRAWN WIT TRUMP
AND USA WOULD REMAIN DIVIDED AND CONFUSED--A.H AMIN
The offic of the Special Inspector General Afghanistan Reconstruction
(SIGAR) does not present a healthy picture of Afghan stability. Recently, US
director of DNI, Mr. Daniel Coats presenting a threat assessment said,
“Militants groups in Pakistan will continue to take advantage of their safe
havens there to plan and conduct attacks in neighbouring countries and
possibly beyond”. Pakistan was quick to retort to this insult calling it politically
motivated and counterproductive to trust building between the two countries.
SIGAR IS A TRADITIONAL SCEPTIC BUT SIGARS ASSESSMENTS ARE
NOT 100 % REALISTIC--SAFE HAVENS ARE VERY MUCH THERE-- THE
USA KNOWS IT AND PAKISTAN KNOWS IT -- WITHOUT SAFE HAVENS
IN PAKISTAN TALIBAN COULD NOT HAVE LASTED 3 TO 7 DAYS---.A.H
AMIN

11. All may not be well. Thinkers in Capitol Hill remain in awe of Russia, China
and Pakistan. They are still insisting on factorising India in the equation.
Russia having learnt from history does not want India around.
AGAIN FAR FETCHED---RUSSIAN INDIAN RELATIONS ARE TOO
STRONG .--A.H AMIN
The intensity of this opposition is evident in a turnaround of President Trump
who has declared that he is in agreement with his intelligence chiefs. Does
this concurring includes Pakistan in ‘threat perception’ will become evident as
negotiations proceed?
Herein rest the future of Afghan diplomacy and peace.
POOR TRUMP IS DEEPLY DISTURBED - EATING TOO MUCH FAST
FOOD AND ONLY WANTS TO WIN THE NEXT ELECTIONS WHICH
APPEARS TO BE A FAR FETCHED AIM---BUT TO DO THAT TRUMP
WOULD GLADLY DITCH AFGHANS AND THROW THEM FOR TALIBAN
TO DEVOUR AND EAT---BUT TALIBAN WOULD NOT STILL HAVE A
CLEAN RUN AS MANY STATES WOULD STILL SUPPORT ANTI TALIBAN
FORCES---A.H AMIN
The writer is a political economist and a television anchor person
samson.sharaf@gmail.com
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