Presentation of the annual report 2012

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Presentation of the annual report 2012

  1. 1. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 Annual Report 2012Annual Report 2012
  2. 2. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 2 Outline presentationOutline presentation • Developments in: – Real sector – Public sector – External sector – Monetary and financial sector • Outlook for 2013 & 2014 • Benchmarking in the Caribbean
  3. 3. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 3 Real sectorReal sector
  4. 4. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Developments in the monetary union Developments in the monetary union July 23, 2013 4 2011 2012 Current account balance (in mln NAf.) -1,466.5 -1,382.1 Change in gross foreign reserves of the central bank (in mln NAf)* -48.4 277.4 Change in money supply (%) 1.3 1.8 Change private loans (%) 5.4 4.8 Curaçao 8.9 8.6 Sint Maarten -2.4 -4.7 GDP growth (%) Curaçao 0.6 -0.1 Sint Maarten -1.5 1.5 Inflation (%) Curaçao 2.3 3.2 Sint Maarten 4.6 4.0 *- sign means an increase
  5. 5. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 5 Macro-economic key figures: a comparison Macro-economic key figures: a comparison 5.3%4.4%2.5%2.3%-1.0%1.0% The Netherlands 5.9%6.5%21.1%26.1%5.5%4.2%Venezuela 7.8%8.5%2.1%3.2%2.2%1.8% United States 9.6%8.9%0.6%4.4%-1.2%3.7%Aruba 201220112012201120122011 Unemployment rateConsumer pricesReal GDP
  6. 6. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 6 Main developments Curaçao in 2012Main developments Curaçao in 2012 • Economic contraction of 0.1%. • Inflation rate increased to 3.2% due mainly to the increase in the sales tax rate from 5.0% to 6.0% in 2012.
  7. 7. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Sectoral performance in Curaçao in 2012 (1) Sectoral performance in Curaçao in 2012 (1) • Decline in the manufacturing sector – Decline in output refinery. – Decline in ship repair. • Decline in construction sector – Lack of major construction projects. • Growth slowed in wholesale & retail trade sector – Decline in domestic demand. – Increase in foreign demand (tourists and free zone). July 23, 2013 7
  8. 8. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Sectoral performance in Curaçao in 2012 (2) Sectoral performance in Curaçao in 2012 (2) • Increase in restaurants & hotels sector – Increase stay-over tourism. – Growth cruise tourism. • Increase in transport, storage & communication sector – More passengers handled. – More ships piloted into the port, more cargo movements, and more oil storage activities. July 23, 2013 8
  9. 9. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Economic development CuraçaoEconomic development Curaçao July 23, 2013 9 0.6% -0.1% 2.3% 3.2% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Real GDP Inflation
  10. 10. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Curaçao GDP by expenditureCuraçao GDP by expenditure July 23, 2013 10 Real percentage changes 2011 2012 Domestic expenditure, ofDomestic expenditure, of which:which: --0.20.2 --1.01.0 Private sector 1.8 -0.3 -Consumption 1.4 -0.5 - Investment 0.4 0.2 Public sector -2.0 -0.7 -Consumption -2.0 -0.1 -Investment 0.0 -0.6 Foreign net expenditure, ofForeign net expenditure, of which:which: 2.02.0 0.70.7 -Exports of G&S 8.6 3.8 -Imports of G&S 6.6 3.0 Real GDP by expenditureReal GDP by expenditure 0.60.6 --0.10.1 Source: Estimates by the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten. *Expenditure categories data are weighted contributors to GDP growth
  11. 11. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Main economic developments Sint Maarten in 2012 Main economic developments Sint Maarten in 2012 • Real GDP growth of 1.5%. • Inflation rate decelerated to 4.0% owing largely to a slowdown in the growth in international oil prices. 11
  12. 12. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Sectoral performance in Sint Maarten in 2012 (1) Sectoral performance in Sint Maarten in 2012 (1) • Increase in restaurants & hotels sector – Increase stay-over tourism. – Growth cruise tourism, albeit at slower pace compared to 2011. • Increase in transport, storage & communication sector – More passengers handled. – More ships piloted into the port and more cargo movements. • Growth in wholesale & retail trade sector – More tourism spending. – Less domestic spending. July 23, 2013 12
  13. 13. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Sectoral performance in Sint Maarten in 2012 (2) Sectoral performance in Sint Maarten in 2012 (2) • Growth in utilities sector • Increased production and consumption of water and electricity. • Growth in financial services sector • Increase in net interest income of the domestic banks. • Growth remained flat in the construction sector • Decline in the manufacturing sector • Less ship repair activities on yachts. July 23, 2013 13
  14. 14. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 14 Economic development Sint Maarten Economic development Sint Maarten -1.5% 1.5% 4.6% 4.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2008 2009 2010* 2011* 2012* Real GDP Inflation *Estimate CBCS
  15. 15. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 15 Public sectorPublic sector
  16. 16. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 16 Main developments CuraçaoMain developments Curaçao • Third consecutive government budget deficit. • Negative yet improved primary balance. • In July 2012, the government was instructed by the Kingdom Council of Ministers to balance its 2012 budget and multi-annual projections. • The instruction was removed for the most part early in April 2013.
  17. 17. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 17 Budget development CuraçaoBudget development Curaçao -110.3 0 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* NAf.mln Budget balance * 2013 Government budget
  18. 18. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 18 Budget development CuraçaoBudget development Curaçao -110.3 0 1,717 1,765 1,610 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* NAf.mln Budget balance Total expenditures * 2013 Government budget
  19. 19. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 19 Budget development CuraçaoBudget development Curaçao -110.3 0 1,717 1,765 1,610 1,564 1,655 1,610 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* NAf.mln Budget balance Total expenditures Total revenues * 2013 Government budget
  20. 20. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 20 Total public debt CuraçaoTotal public debt Curaçao 2,208 1,667 1,667 5,439.3 5,607.9 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2010 2011 2012 NAfmln Total public debt Outstanding government bonds GDP
  21. 21. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 21 Total public debt-to-GDP ratio Curaçao Total public debt-to-GDP ratio Curaçao 41% 39% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2009 2010 2011 2012*
  22. 22. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 22 Interest burden CuraçaoInterest burden Curaçao -154 -110 0 50 50 52 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Budget balance Interest payments
  23. 23. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 23 Main developments Sint MaartenMain developments Sint Maarten • Preliminary budget surplus. • Positive and improved primary balance. • Ongoing focus on establishing the necessary institutions to become a full-fledged government administration. • However, financial constraints form a barrier in this development. • The 2013 budget has not been signed into law yet.
  24. 24. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 24 Interest, debt and GDP Sint MaartenInterest, debt and GDP Sint Maarten 12 11 354 353 1,487.8 1,569.6 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2009 2010 2011 2012 NAfmln Interest Total public debt GDP
  25. 25. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 25 Total public debt-to-GDP ratio Sint Maarten Total public debt-to-GDP ratio Sint Maarten 24% 22% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2009 2010 2011 2012
  26. 26. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 26 External sectorExternal sector
  27. 27. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 27 Main developmentsMain developments • Current account improved in 2012 due to: – improvement in the services balance; – mitigated by deterioration in the trade, current transfers and income balances. • Further decline in net capital transfers. • Increase in external financing moderated due to: – substantial smaller increase in loans and credits balance. • Developments resulted in balance of payments deficit and drop in gross foreign exchange reserves.
  28. 28. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 28 Balance of payments (transaction basis, NAf mln) Balance of payments (transaction basis, NAf mln) 277.4-48.4-27.6-538.9-371.6Change in reserves 573.7182.2-1,529.3-188.7-126.6Portfolio investments 261.61,076.21,456.0786.71,210.2Loans and credits 112.188.4228.6196.4449.0Direct investments 947.41,346.9155.4794.41,532.6External financing 69.8123.11,200.8200.6244.8Capital account -1,382.1-1,466.5-1,427.8-608.6-1,513.9Current account 20122011201020092008
  29. 29. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 29 Balance of payments developments (in % of GDP) Balance of payments developments (in % of GDP) -21.2% -21.3% -18.8% 4.1% 19.0% 12.9% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Current account balance External financing to the private sector
  30. 30. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Contribution to foreign exchange income* in 2012 (Curaçao) Contribution to foreign exchange income* in 2012 (Curaçao) July 23, 2013 30*Income from the export of goods and services Freezone 19% Bunkering 14% Merchandise excl. freezone 7% Transportation 7% Refining 14% Tourism 23% International financial services 4% Other services 11%
  31. 31. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Contribution to foreign exchange income* in 2000 (Curaçao) Contribution to foreign exchange income* in 2000 (Curaçao) July 23, 2013 31*Income from the export of goods and services Freezone 17% Bunkering 6% Merchandise excl. freezone 11% Transportation 7% Refining 16% Tourism 14% International financial services 18% Other services 11%
  32. 32. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Contribution to foreign exchange income* in 2012 (St. Maarten) Contribution to foreign exchange income* in 2012 (St. Maarten) July 23, 2013 32*Income from the export of goods and services Bunkering 1% Merchandise 10% Transportation 3% Tourism 72% International financial services 1% Other services 13%
  33. 33. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 33 Tourism sectorTourism sector 811.4 971.7 1287.3 1506.6 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NAf.million Curacao St. Maarten
  34. 34. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 34 Tourism sectorTourism sector $542.8 $569.7 $841.7 $858.5 0 250 500 750 1,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* US$million Curacao St. Maarten
  35. 35. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 35 International financial sectorInternational financial sector *Projection CBCS 0 150 300 450 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NAf.million Net operational income Profit tax BRK windfall 2010
  36. 36. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Refining feeRefining fee July 23, 2013 36*Projection CBCS 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NAf.million
  37. 37. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 37 Monthly import coverageMonthly import coverage 0 1 2 3 4 5 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Months Import coverage norm Import coverage
  38. 38. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 38 Monetary and financial sectorMonetary and financial sector
  39. 39. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 39 Main monetary developmentsMain monetary developments • Moderate increase in money supply. • Moderation in private credit extension. • Declining trend in interest rates continued.
  40. 40. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 40 Money supplyMoney supply 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NAf.million Net domestic assets Net foreign assets
  41. 41. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 41 Net domestic creditNet domestic credit 84 196 610 218 -162 -100 -1,100 -800 -500 -200 100 400 700 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NAf.million Government Private sector Other
  42. 42. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 42 Domestic interest rates (commercial bank lending rates) Domestic interest rates (commercial bank lending rates) 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Mortgages Time loans
  43. 43. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 43 Domestic interest rates (borrowing rates) Domestic interest rates (borrowing rates) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Passbook savings Time deposits (12 months)
  44. 44. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 44 Domestic interest rates (government securities) Domestic interest rates (government securities) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Gov. bond (5yr, eff. yield) Treasury bills (1 month)
  45. 45. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Loans to the private sector (year-on-year growth) Loans to the private sector (year-on-year growth) July 23, 2013 45 -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Loans to the private sector Loans to the private sector Curaçao Loans to the private sector Sint Maarten
  46. 46. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 46 Main financial developmentsMain financial developments • Banks: – Improved capitalization. – Further increase in non-performing loans. – Decrease in earnings and profitability. • Institutional investors: – Increase in assets. – Decrease in profitability, except non-life insurance industry.
  47. 47. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 47 Capital adequacyCapital adequacy 9.9% 10.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tier 1 capital-to-total assets 4% norm
  48. 48. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 48 Assets qualityAssets quality 3.0% 3.2% 6.8% 8.1% 3.0% 3.1% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Gross specific provisions-to-total loans Non-performing loans-to-total loans Gross general provisions-to-total loans
  49. 49. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 49 Earnings & profitabilityEarnings & profitability 1.9% 1.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Return-on-assets 0.6% norm
  50. 50. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 50 Outlook 2013 & 2014Outlook 2013 & 2014
  51. 51. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Expected developments in 2013Expected developments in 2013 July 23, 2013 51 2012 2013 Current account balance (in mln NAf.) -1,382.1 -1,258.4 Change in foreign reserves (in mln NAf.)* 277.4 165.2 GDP growth (%) Curaçao -0.1 -0.7 Sint Maarten 1.5 1.1 Inflation (%) Curaçao 3.2 3.0 Sint Maarten 4.0 3.0 *- sign means an increase
  52. 52. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Expected developments in 2013Expected developments in 2013 • Real GDP of Curaçao is expected to contract by 0.7% in 2013. • The economic contraction is due to a decline in domestic demand, mitigated by an increase in net foreign demand. • Inflation will decelerate to 3.0%, owing largely to a projected decline in international oil and food prices. July 23, 2013 52
  53. 53. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Expected developments in 2013Expected developments in 2013 • Sint Maarten’s GDP is estimated to expand by 1.1% in 2013, a deceleration compared to the real growth of 1.5% in 2012. • The economic slowdown is largely attributable to weakened activities in the restaurants & hotels and the wholesale and retail trade sectors. • Inflation will ease to 3.0%, reflecting mainly lower projected international oil and food prices. July 23, 2013 53
  54. 54. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Balance of payments projectionBalance of payments projection July 23, 2013 54 165.2277.4-48.4-27.6-538.9Change in reserves 240.0573.7182.2-1,529.3-188.7Portfolio investments 455.0261.61,076.21,456.0786.7Loans and credits 110.0112.188.4228.6196.4Direct investments 805.0947.41,346.9155.4794.4External financing 12.369.8123.11,200.8200.6Capital account -1,258.4-1,382.1-1,466.5-1,427.8-608.6Current account 2013*2012201120102009
  55. 55. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Expected developments in 2014Expected developments in 2014 • In the baseline scenario, the economy of Curacao is projected to expand by 0.1% in 2014. • Growth will be driven by increased net foreign demand. By contrast, domestic demand will contract. • Inflation will decelerate to 2.8% in line with the development of the inflation rate in the United States. July 23, 2013 55
  56. 56. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Expected developments in 2014Expected developments in 2014 • Assuming the construction of a new hospital will commence in 2014, real GDP will expand by 1.1% • Growth will be driven by increased domestic demand, particularly government investment, mitigated by a decline in net foreign demand. July 23, 2013 56
  57. 57. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Expected developments in 2014Expected developments in 2014 • The economy of Sint Maarten is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2014, driven mainly by the tourism, transportation, and marine trade sectors. • Growth in tourism will stem primarily from more stay-over tourism as cruise tourism is projected to remain flat. • Inflation will ease further to reach 2.7% supported by the projected decline in international oil and food prices. An increase in excises on tobacco and alcohol will contribute to inflationary pressures. July 23, 2013 57
  58. 58. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten Economic developments 2011-2014Economic developments 2011-2014 2011 2012 2013* 2014* Real GDP growthReal GDP growth (%)(%) Curaçao 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 0.1 Sint Maarten -1.5 1.5 1.1 1.0 InflationInflation (%)(%) Curaçao 2.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 Sint Maarten 4.6 4.0 3.0 2.7 Current account balance (in mln NAf) -1,466.5 -1,382.1 -1,258.4 -1,072.8 Current account balance (% GDP) -21.3 -18.8 -17.0 -14.1 July 23, 2013 58 * Estimate CBCS
  59. 59. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten 2011 2012 2013* 2014* Government balanceGovernment balance Curaçao (in mln NAf.) -153.7 -110.3 0 0 % GDP -2.8 -2.0 0 0 Sint Maarten (in mln NAf.) 10.3 27.9 0 0 % GDP 0.7 1.8 0 0 DebtDebt--toto--GDPGDP ratio (%)ratio (%) Curaçao 40.6 39.4 38.5 37.4 Sint Maarten 23.8 22.5 21.4 20.6 July 23, 2013 59* Estimate CBCS Assumption: no debt accumulation in 2013 and 2014 Economic developments 2011-2014Economic developments 2011-2014
  60. 60. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 60 Caribbean benchmarkingCaribbean benchmarking
  61. 61. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten 61 July 23, 2013 GDP growth rate (%)GDP growth rate (%) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba -0.1 1.5 -0.7 1.1 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2012 2013
  62. 62. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten 62 July 23, 2013 Inflation (%)Inflation (%) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba 3.2 4.0 3.0 3.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 2012 2013
  63. 63. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten 63 July 23, 2013 Government expenditure (percentage of GDP) Government expenditure (percentage of GDP) 32 26 28 27 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2012 2013 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba * No estimates for 2013
  64. 64. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten 64 July 23, 2013 Public debt-to-GDP ratio (%)Public debt-to-GDP ratio (%) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba * No estimates for 2013 39 22 39 22 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2012 2013
  65. 65. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 65 -2.8 -18.8 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Antigua and Barbuda Aruba Bahamas Barbados Curaçao & SXM Dominica Grenada 2004 2012 Current account deficit (percentage of GDP) Current account deficit (percentage of GDP) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, estimates CBCS, Central Bank of Aruba
  66. 66. CentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaartenCentraleBankvanCuraçaoenSintMaarten July 23, 2013 66 Thank you for yourThank you for your attentionattention

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