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Using Scenario   Analysis toPredict the Future      of the Semantic Web     August Jackson     Ernst & Young
I work for Ernst & YoungOne of the largest audit, tax and advisory firms inthe worldThis material does not constitute advi...
“Its tough to make   predictions, especially about the   future.”@8of12                                 #slacid
Semantic Web: Threat or   Opportunity?@8of12                       #slacid
Disruptive technologies follow non-   linear improvement curves@8of12                                   #slacid
Questions?
Scenario analysis enabled us   consider possible futures and create   meaningful early warning systems      High          ...
A clear problem statement is critical to   a quality scenario analysis         Subject Domain   Customer Segment          ...
STEEP framework aligns trends and       uncertainties                                                            Environme...
Seek a diversity of expertise to identify                    the critical trends and uncertainties Internal Sources       ...
Isolate the two or three critical   uncertainties to create three to seven   scenarios                 Extreme State Z Ext...
Questions?
Here’s the problem scope we’ll   address in a very high-level analysis          Subject Domain:           Application of  ...
STEEP framework aligns trends and         uncertainties                                                                   ...
STEEP framework aligns trends and         uncertainties                                                                   ...
1. Availability of semantic expertise      2. Adoption of natural language processing      3. Corporate adoption of indust...
We can describe distinct futures                                      based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of se...
We can describe distinct futures                                      based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of se...
We can describe distinct futures                                      based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of se...
We can describe distinct futures                                      based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of se...
We can describe distinct futures                                      based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of se...
Implication wheels can be used to   flesh out the story of each scenario                   Hypothesi                      ...
Implication wheels can be used to   flesh out the story of each scenario                                  Implicatio      ...
Implication wheels can be used to     flesh out the story of each scenario                                 Consequen      ...
What could the “Smart Content” mean   for news media?                 Nearly all                 published                ...
“Smart Content” would see changes   the substance and medium of news                                     Publication      ...
The changes wrought by Smart      Content will have impact far and wide                                     Copyright     ...
Write the future history of each   scenario to drive your early warning   tracking effort            Universities will   P...
Questions?
Thank You!August Jacksonaugust (at) augustjackson (dot) nethttp://augustjackson.net@8of12
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Using Scenario Analysis to Predict the Future of the Semantic Web

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Will the semantic web be a threat or opportunity for information professionals? How do we plan for the future in the face of disruptive change and high uncertainty? This presentation explains how scenario analysis can bring some clarity to the future. We apply these methods to the question of the semantic web to understand where the threats and opportunities exist for information professionals.

Published in: Business, Education, Technology

Using Scenario Analysis to Predict the Future of the Semantic Web

  1. 1. Using Scenario Analysis toPredict the Future of the Semantic Web August Jackson Ernst & Young
  2. 2. I work for Ernst & YoungOne of the largest audit, tax and advisory firms inthe worldThis material does not constitute advice related toany of the services the firm providesMentions of firm clients do not constitute anendorsement or recommendation to investAll opinions expressed here are solely my own@8of12 #slacid
  3. 3. “Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”@8of12 #slacid
  4. 4. Semantic Web: Threat or Opportunity?@8of12 #slacid
  5. 5. Disruptive technologies follow non- linear improvement curves@8of12 #slacid
  6. 6. Questions?
  7. 7. Scenario analysis enabled us consider possible futures and create meaningful early warning systems High Significant Disagreement Uncertainty Events@8of12 #slacid
  8. 8. A clear problem statement is critical to a quality scenario analysis Subject Domain Customer Segment Timeframe Geography@8of12 #slacid
  9. 9. STEEP framework aligns trends and uncertainties Environment Social Technological Economic Political al• Demography • IT • Drivers of • Air quality • Laws• Family life • Biotechnology growth • Water quality • Regulation• Public health • Materials • Inhibitors of • Arable land • Elections• Religion science growth • Climate trends • Political power• Culture • Manufacturing • Monetary • Resource distribution• Beliefs environment availability • Conflict • Business • Litigation cycles • International • Wealth Relations distribution@8of12 #slacid
  10. 10. Seek a diversity of expertise to identify the critical trends and uncertainties Internal Sources Sales and Marketing Management R&D External Sources@8of12 Customers Academics #slacid
  11. 11. Isolate the two or three critical uncertainties to create three to seven scenarios Extreme State Z Extreme State A Critical Uncertainty 1 Extreme State A Extreme State Z Critical Uncertainty 2@8of12 #slacid
  12. 12. Questions?
  13. 13. Here’s the problem scope we’ll address in a very high-level analysis Subject Domain: Application of Customer Segment: semantic Knowledge technologies to Professionals and models for research their Stakeholders and analysis Timeframe: Geography: 3-5 years Global@8of12 #slacid
  14. 14. STEEP framework aligns trends and uncertainties Environment Social Technological Economic Political al• Increased use of • Inclusion of • High valuation of Drive to conserve • Public budget social media semantic “big data” energy with smart constraints drive• Corporate standards in companies grids and smart push for cost- adoption of applications • Cloud-based appliances savings industry • Adoption of non- platforms move IT • Regulations standards and relational spend from capex related to general databases to opex personal data ontologies • Adoption of • Availability of • Desire to increase• Growing natural language semantic transparency of frustration of time processing expertise some government spent seeking • Availability of • New revenue operations information easy-to-use tools models and• Consumerization to create services based on of IT ontologies data • Ubiquitous high- speed network connectivity • Growing volumes@8of12 of data #slacid
  15. 15. STEEP framework aligns trends and uncertainties Environment Social Technological Economic Political al• Increased use of • Inclusion of • Valuation of “big Drive to conserve • Public budget social media semantic data” companies energy with smart constraints drive• Corporate standards in • Cloud-based grids and smart push for cost- adoption of applications platforms move IT appliances savings industry standard • Adoption of non- spend from capex • Regulations ontologies relational to opex related to data• Growing databases • Availability of privacy and frustration of time • Adoption of semantic protection spent seeking natural language expertise • Desire to increase information processing • New revenue transparency of• Consumerization • Availability of models and some government of IT easy-to-use services based on operations ontology editing data software • Ubiquitous high- speed network connectivity • Growing volumes@8of12 of data #slacid
  16. 16. 1. Availability of semantic expertise 2. Adoption of natural language processing 3. Corporate adoption of industry standard ontologies 4. Inclusion of semantic standards in applications 5. Adoption of non-relational databases 6. Availability of easy-to-use ontology editing software 7. Valuation of “big data” companies 8. New revenue models and services based on data 9. Regulations related to data privacy and protection@8of12 #slacid
  17. 17. We can describe distinct futures based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of semantic expertise Expertise is Rare Expertise is Common NLP Limited Adoption NLP is Ubiquitous@8of12 Adoption of natural language processing #slacid
  18. 18. We can describe distinct futures based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of semantic expertise Expertise is Rare Expertise is Common Smart Content • Nearly all published sources are semantically modeled • Complex semantic models with deep nuance and meaning • New models for advanced search, research and analysis NLP Limited Adoption NLP is Ubiquitous@8of12 Adoption of natural language processing #slacid
  19. 19. We can describe distinct futures based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of semantic expertise Expertise is Rare Expertise is Common Smart Content • Nearly all published sources are semantically modeled • Complex semantic models with deep nuance and meaning • New models for advanced search, research and analysis Big Data and Little Else • Semantic models applied almost exclusively to structured data • Limited application of semantic- based tools for written text • Existing search and analysis models prevail NLP Limited Adoption NLP is Ubiquitous@8of12 Adoption of natural language processing #slacid
  20. 20. We can describe distinct futures based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of semantic expertise Expertise is Rare Expertise is Common Big Data Everywhere Smart Content • Semantic expertise applied • Nearly all published sources are primarily to structured data semantically modeled • Meaningful ontological models • Complex semantic models with for structured data become the deep nuance and meaning norm • New models for advanced • New search and analysis search, research and analysis models for data, less so for text Big Data and Little Else • Semantic models applied almost exclusively to structured data • Limited application of semantic- based tools for written text • Existing search and analysis models prevail NLP Limited Adoption NLP is Ubiquitous@8of12 Adoption of natural language processing #slacid
  21. 21. We can describe distinct futures based on our chosen uncertainties Availability of semantic expertise Expertise is Rare Expertise is Common Big Data Everywhere Smart Content • Semantic expertise applied • Nearly all published sources are primarily to structured data semantically modeled • Meaningful ontological models • Complex semantic models with for structured data become the deep nuance and meaning norm • New models for advanced • New search and analysis search, research and analysis models for data, less so for text Big Data and Little Else Statistics = Meaning • Semantic models applied • Building ontologies is expensive almost exclusively to structured and requires clear ROI data • Reliance on statistical methods • Limited application of semantic- for concept mapping based tools for written text • New search and analysis • Existing search and analysis methods based on word co- models prevail occurrence NLP Limited Adoption NLP is Ubiquitous@8of12 Adoption of natural language processing #slacid
  22. 22. Implication wheels can be used to flesh out the story of each scenario Hypothesi s@8of12 #slacid
  23. 23. Implication wheels can be used to flesh out the story of each scenario Implicatio n Hypothesi s Implicatio n@8of12 #slacid
  24. 24. Implication wheels can be used to flesh out the story of each scenario Consequen ce Implication Consequen Consequen ce ce Hypothesis Implication Consequen ce@8of12 #slacid
  25. 25. What could the “Smart Content” mean for news media? Nearly all published sources are semanticall y modeled@8of12 #slacid
  26. 26. “Smart Content” would see changes the substance and medium of news Publication s offer APIs Nearly all published Hypothes sources are is semanticall y modeled “Data Journalism” becomes standard@8of12 #slacid
  27. 27. The changes wrought by Smart Content will have impact far and wide Copyright Challenge s Publication s offer APIs Nearly all New Expectatio published Monetizatio ns of Hypothes n Models Empirical sources are Evidence is semanticall y modeled “Data Implicatio Journalism” n becomes Interactive standard Infographi cs@8of12 #slacid
  28. 28. Write the future history of each scenario to drive your early warning tracking effort Universities will People will develop educate people rich semantic Smart about semantics models and tools Content Today Software developers 3 -5 will release years applications with hence NLP capabilities@8of12 #slacid
  29. 29. Questions?
  30. 30. Thank You!August Jacksonaugust (at) augustjackson (dot) nethttp://augustjackson.net@8of12

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