unSEXY Conf 2013: Alex Moore, Baydin

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unSEXY Conf 2013: Alex Moore, Baydin

  1. 1. Alex Moore CEO @awmoore baydin | 2013 Polynomial Growth How to use Calculus 101 to gauge your startup’s early growth trajectory.
  2. 2. VC Math is a Funny Thing
  3. 3. VC Math is a Funny Thing
  4. 4. VC Math is a Funny Thing The next Facebook! Lifestyle Business. Yawn.
  5. 5. Your startup’s user base will not look like either of these
  6. 6. Your startup’s user base will not look like either of these UNLESS • Your product is a free viral consumer app with network effects (why are you here?) • Something is wrong
  7. 7. A Real-World Example: Amazon baydin | 2013 1997 2013
  8. 8. Not Linear baydin | 2013 1997 2013
  9. 9. Not Exponential Either baydin | 2013 1997 2013
  10. 10. Why it matters baydin | 2013 Exponential Growth Amazon Revenue Projections
  11. 11. Boomerang: Not Linear baydin | 2013
  12. 12. Not Exponential Either baydin | 2013 July 2010
  13. 13. Marketing Channel discovery and saturation should dominate your early growth.
  14. 14. baydin | 2013 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 Marketing Channels AdWords
  15. 15. baydin | 2013 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 Marketing Channels AdWords FB Ad
  16. 16. baydin | 2013 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 Marketing Channels AdWords FB Ad Slideshare SEO Landing FB Tweak Banner Ad
  17. 17. baydin | 2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 POLYNOMIALGROWTH!
  18. 18. Boomerang Daily New Users baydin | 2013
  19. 19. baydin | 2013
  20. 20. Some channels that worked baydin | 2013 Chrome Web Store Email Marketing Infographic SEO Landing Pages
  21. 21. Chrome Web Store baydin | 2013 • Up to 12,000 users per day when featured • Consistent 400 users per day
  22. 22. Email Marketing baydin | 2013
  23. 23. Email Marketing baydin | 2013 • Search + Direct traffic increase due to user emails: • 55% • 24% • 18% • 12% • 6% • Super Cheap #1 Tactical Tip: Send More (High-Quality) Email!
  24. 24. Content Marketing Borrow someone else’s audience Great lift (25k visits) but not much sticking power $1200 + 4 days of engineer time
  25. 25. SEO Landing Pages baydin | 2013 • Found 20 good keywords with AdWords + Moz tools • Seeded with AdWords to test conversion rate • Analyzed search terms to find other opportunities • Fixed cost – additional traffic is free and growing
  26. 26. SEO Landing Page Traffic baydin | 2013
  27. 27. Marketing is hard because of Failure baydin | 2013 • Video (clickthrough rate too low) • Display Ads (4% conversion to download) • AdWords (low search volume) • Facebook Ads (only 3rd world clicks were cheap) • Domaining (low pagerank because sites too new)
  28. 28. Mechanics of polynomial growth are easy baydin | 2013 1. Pick a customer acquisition channel See DMC’s AARRR slides for channel ideas Spend at least one month running experiments 2. Measure the results. Invest more? Invest the same? Stop investing? 3. Pick another customer acquisition channel
  29. 29. baydin | 2013 If your growth does not yet look polynomial: Draft or hire someone to focus on marketing! tiny.cc/polynomialgrowth Alex Moore Baydin @awmoore
  30. 30. My Growth Looks Different
  31. 31. Raising Money baydin | 2013 1. The illusion of exponential growth is key to attracting investors. 2. Your lever is your marketing budget. Expect to lose money overall creating this illusion. 3. Don’t believe your own bullshit!
  32. 32. Have not hit Product-Market Fit baydin | 2013 1. Look at conversion metrics 2. Talk to your customers 3. Iterate on your product

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