#4AsTransformation 2013 - March 12 - TVB - Ken Goldstein

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What advertisers can learn about winning from the 2012 Presidential Race (Celestin F-H)

Will Feltus, SVP, National Media
**Ken Goldstein, President, Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group
Moderated by: Jack Poor, VP Marketing Insights, Political Research & Analysis, TVB

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  • In this table the columns are ad categories and the values are that category’s share of market ad time. Reading a column from top to bottom shows how that category responds as political share gets incrementally larger. It shows where the offsetting share declines come from.The Station Promo category maintains its share of ad time – i.e., station owners are preserving their own allocation, leaving the paying advertisers to fight for the rest of the inventory. The “All Other Paid” category is very large and could be broken down into smaller segments. For this analysis I’ve left it as is.
  • Now I’ve converted the category share values to a ratio. The benchmark values are in the first row – in this scenario Political has less than a 2% share of total ad time. We take auto’s share and set it equal to a benchmark of 1. We take telecom’s share and set it equal to a benchmark of 1. And so on.
  • Here’s the table filled in. Go down a column and see the rate of fall-off in a category’s share of ad time as the Political shares in the left hand column get larger.Station Promos – remains unchanged at all levels of political activityAuto – drops sharply when Politics gets past 10% share and then again when it gets past 30%Telecom – takes an immediate hit but then holds steady until politics gets past 20% shareQSR – similar pattern as telecom All Other – share declines across the entire range
  • #4AsTransformation 2013 - March 12 - TVB - Ken Goldstein

    1. 1. What advertisers can learn about winning and losing from the 2012 Presidential campaignWill FeltusSVP, National Media Research, Planning and Placement LLCKen GoldsteinPresident, Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group
    2. 2. Agenda• What political campaigns do.• How voters use media today. Some examples.• Gaining separation: differences between the Obama and Romney campaigns on television.• Don’t run your next campaign like your last one. What’s ahead.
    3. 3. Client Creative &Account Mgt.Media Buyer
    4. 4. Beginning with Bush in 2000, a few large political campaigns began separating the creative and media functions. But most still use the old model. Old Model Modern Model Client Client Creative & Creative Team Media TeamAccount Mgt.Media Buyer
    5. 5. WHAT CAMPAIGNS DO: A MODELDATA ANALYTICS & VOTER COMPETITIVE TRACKINGRESEARCH VOTER TARGETING Define & Redefine INTERNAL TRACKING CREATIVE TESTING MESSAGING COMMUNICATIONS & CREATIVE STRATEGY & STRATEGY BUDGET FUNDRAISING MEDIA RESEARCH DONOR DEVELOPMENT COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS News Paid Internet + Direct voter media advertising social media contact
    6. 6. COMPETITIVE TRACKINGDATA ANALYTICS& VOTER RESEARCH WHAT CAMPAIGNS DO: A MODEL o Forward-looking monitoring ofo Historical voting data. ad dollars ordered by opponentso Demographic and and third-party allies consumer behavior data. o Daily advertising placementso Benchmark polling and and creatives from micro-targeting surveys. Kantar/CMAG VOTER TARGETING o News volume and sentiment.o Enhanced voter file and database. Define & Redefine INTERNAL TRACKINGCREATIVE TESTING MESSAGING COMMUNICATIONS o Tracking of news volume ando Focus and dial groups. & CREATIVE STRATEGY & sentiment, websiteo Field experiments. activity, social media traffic and STRATEGY BUDGET trends, political elite buzz.o Internet surveys & A/B testing.o Polling. o Tracking polls. o Voter contact data and MEDIA RESEARCH analytics. o Nielsen, Arbitron, Comsco FUNDRAISING re. o Scarborough, MRI, Simm ons, Rentrak. DONOR DEVELOPMENT o Field experiments. o Donor relationship management. o Communication costs and o Major donor feedback. fundraising forecasts. o New/repeat donors and dollars. COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS News Paid Internet + Direct voter media advertising social media contact
    7. 7. Voters areconsumers of politics. Consumption level Brand preference
    8. 8. HIGH TURNOUT Voters areVoter Turnout consumers of politics. Index Consumption level Brand preferenceTURNOUT LOW DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    9. 9. High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters HIGH TURNOUTVoter Turnout Index 100TURNOUT LOW Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters 0 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    10. 10. High Turnout Republican Voters Porsche 140 Jaguar Republicans drive more cars HIGH TURNOUT than Democrats. Volvo 130 Lincoln 120 Buick Cadillac Lexus Voter Turnout Index Mercedes Toyota Acura 110 Chrysler Mazda BMW GMC 100 Honda Ford Jeep Chevrolet 90 U.S. Political Profile:TURNOUT LOW 80 Automobile Ownership 70 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    11. 11. High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters Porsche HIGH TURNOUT 140 Jaguar Any Hybrid vehicle Volvo 130 Saab Subaru Lincoln 120 Mini Buick Cadillac Lexus Voter Turnout Index Mercedes Suzuki Toyota Acura Chrysler 110 Audi Mazda Volkswagen BMW GMC Hyundai 100 Honda Ford Jeep Kia Chevrolet Nissan Pontiac Dodge 90 GeoTURNOUT Mitsubishi LOW 80 Plymouth 70 -50 Low Turnout Democrat Voters -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Low Turnout Republican Voters 30 40 50 60 70 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    12. 12. 140 Sauvignon Blanc Political Happy Hour Chardonnay HIGH TURNOUT Cabernet Sauvignon 130 Brut/Brut Extra Dry Shiraz/Syrah Scotch whisky Merlot Any microbrew Pinot Noir Pinot Grigio Labatt Blue Canadian whiskey Gin 120 White Zinfandel Samuel Adams Red Zinfandel Guinness Rolling Rock Bourbon whiskey Voter Turnout Index Michelob Light Michelob Ultra 110 Stella Artois Amstel Light Blue Moon Miller Genuine Draft Brandy Vodka Dos Equis Miller Lite 100 Coors Light Coors Original Milwaukees Best Heineken Corona Light Tequila Rum 90 Cognac Bud Light Budweiser Miller High Life 80 Corona TecateTURNOUT Busch Light LOW Busch Natural Light 70 Any malt liquor 60 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    13. 13. HIGH TURNOUT 130 National/network news Republicans drive more cars, 120 while Democrats watch more television. Local news - evening Local news - morning Documentaries Religious 110 Sports Local news - late Late night talk Dramas Mystery/suspense/crime Voter Turnout Index 100 Game shows Comedies Daytime talk shows Science fiction Reality - adventure 90 Daytime soap operas Reality - talent Court shows 80 Reality - dating 70 Kids shows Music videosTURNOUT 60 LOW 50 Novelas 40 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    14. 14. 130 U.S. Overall Media HIGH TURNOUT Newspaper 1st Quintile (heaviest) Consumption Heaviest and Lightest Users 120 Voter Turnout Index Television 1st Quintile 110 (heaviest) Radio 5th Quintile (lightest) Radio 1st Quintile 100 (heaviest) Internet 1st Quintile (heaviest) Internet 5th Quintile (lightest)TURNOUT 90 LOW Newspaper 5th Quintile Television 5th Quintile (lightest) (lightest) 80 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    15. 15. GOP’s “GRP Gap”: Democrat Base voters are 24% more likelyto be watching broadcast TV Monday-Friday
    16. 16. MSNBC FOX Business Net HIGH TURNOUT 140 Golf Ch CNBC FOX News Ch 130 Hallmark Ch ESPN2 FSN/FOX Sports Net CNN NBC Sports Net 120 TWC ESPN HGTV CNN Headline News AMC History TV Land Food Net 110Voter Turnout Planet Green A&E Speed Oprah Winfrey Net Discovery Cooking Ch Index 100 Bravo TLC Lifetime Animal Planet FX CMT Comedy Central Syfy 90 Spike Oxygen TruTV ABC Family 80 E! Disney ChTURNOUT 70 FOX Deportes Nick LOW VH1 ESPN Deportes Adult Swim 60 MTV U.S. Political Profile: CNN en Español 50 Cable networks viewed past 7 days -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    17. 17. 150 FNC: OReilly Factor CNBC: Squawk Box Comedy Central: Colbert Report CNBC: Closing BellHIGH TURNOUT CNN: Erin Burnett OutFront FNC: Fox & Friends 140 CNN: Piers Morgan CNBC: Suze Orman Comedy Central: Daily Show HGTV: House Hunters CNN: Anderson Cooper HLN: Morning Express 130 TNT: Rizzoli & Isles CNN: Situation Room AMC: Mad Men ESPN2: Mike & Mike In Morning Food: Diners, Drive-ins & Dives ESPN: PTI 120 CNN: John King History: American Pickers Food: Restaurant ImpossibleVoter Turnout Index USA: Royal Pains Food: Iron Chef Discovery: Deadliest Catch 110 Food: Chopped History: Pawn Stars AMC: Breaking Bad Discovery: Sons of Guns HLN: Nancy Grace History: Ax Men 100 A&E: Storage Wars Lifetime: Project Runway Lifetime: Army Wives Animal Planet: River Monsters AMC: The Walking Dead A&E: Billy the Exterminator History: Top Gear 90 E!: Fashion Police TLC: Cake Boss FX: Sons of Anarchy Spike TV: Bar Rescue TLC: Extreme Couponing Discovery: American Chopper E! News TBS: ConanLOW TURNOUT 80 Animal Planet: Animal Hoarding Comedy Central: Tosh. O Nickelodeon: SpongeBob Bravo: Pregnant in Heels E!: Kardashians Comedy Central: South Park 70 truTV: Operation Repo Syfy: WWE SmackDown U.S. Political Profile: Cable 60 -130 -110 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 Program Audiences 110 50 70 90 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    18. 18. Harrys Law HIGH TURNOUT Blue Bloods 170 Castle The Good Wife The Mentalist 60 Minutes Person of Interest 150 Suburgatory Mike & Molly NCIS The Middle Vegas Rock Center Smash Survivor NCIS: LA Last Man Standing Hawaii Five-OVoter Turnout 130 20/20 Grimm Modern Family Dancing w/ The Stars NBC NFL Sun Night Football Index Dateline Bachelorette Big Bang Theory Glee 2 Broke Girls 30 Rock Criminal Minds ABC Sat Night College Ftbl Parenthood 110 Once Upon a Time Nashville Law & Order: SVU The Voice American Idol Two & a Half Men New Girl The Office AFHV 90 The X Factor How I Met Your Mother Bachelor PadTURNOUT The Vampire Diaries LOW ABC Sat Night Movie Cops 70 Gossip Girl The Simpsons Family Guy U.S. Political Profile: Broadcast American Dad 50 Primetime Audiences -70 -50 -30 -10 Average Program Audience 10 30 50 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    19. 19. 140 PGA TOUR (mens golf) U.S. Political Profile: LPGA Tour (womens golf) HIGH TURNOUT College basketball 130 Sports Audiences High school sports College baseball Olympics College football Horse racing Figure skating IndyCar Series 120 Mens tennis (ATP) MLB Womens tennis (WTA) NHL 110 Gymnastics NFLVoter Turnout WNBA Grand-Am Road Racing NASCAR Formula One (F1) racing Index 100 Pro rodeo Pro Bull Riding (PBR) NBA NHRA Drag Racing 90 Pro boxing Major League Soccer (MLS) 80TURNOUT European soccer UFC (Ultimate Fighting) LOW Extreme/action sports AMA Pro Racing 70 MotoGP (Grand Prix (motorcycle/ATV) motorcycle) WWE (pro wrestling) Monster Trucks Supercross/Motocross 60 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    20. 20. HIGH TURNOUT Travel reservations National news 120 Financial info/services Local/community events Podcasts Consumer reviews Sports scores/updates Local news Auction site 110 Blogs (read/contribute) Maps/GPS Traffic Cable TV network siteVoter Turnout Index Restaurant info Banking Search 100 Listen to a local radio station Automobile info Daily deals (LivingSocial, etc.) Watch video clips Fantasy sports IM Social networking Sports scores/updates E-mail 90 News/weather/traffic Watch TV programs Maps/GPS Listen to Internet radio Search Download apps Video gamesLOW TURNOUT Shopping Music Job/employment search 80 Banking Games (play/download) Watch video clips Personal ads/dating Music Social networking U.S. Political Profile: Ways 70 Take college courses Internet/Mobile used past 30 days Blue bubbles = Internet use; Green bubbles = Mobile use -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 DEMOCRAT SKEW Republican Index Minus Democrat Index REPUBLICAN SKEW
    21. 21. Two things consumer campaigns can do that political campaigns cannot: 1. Plan and implement over a multi-quarter time horizon. 2. Continually monitor ROI based on sales data.DATA ANALYTICS & VOTER RESEARCH COMPETITIVE TRACKING VOTER TARGETING Define & Redefine INTERNAL TRACKING MESSAGING & COMMUNICATIONS CREATIVE TESTING CREATIVE STRATEGY & BUDGET STRATEGY MEDIA RESEARCH FUNDRAISING DONOR DEVELOPMENT COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS News Paid Internet + Direct voter media advertising social media contact
    22. 22. Gaining Separation Market TimeShow or show genre Message © 2010 Kantar Media
    23. 23. Presidential TV Advertising By TypeSelect Markets
    24. 24. DEM GOPCleveland $24,900,000 $25,600,000Denver $21,800,000 $19,300,000Las Vegas $13,200,000 $16,100,000Orlando $22,200,000 $17,800,000Richmond $7,900,000 $9,100,000
    25. 25. Obama bought more spots on expensive prime and sports, but still paid less per spot than Romney. Local Broadcast TV As % of As % of Average Local Spots Estimated Local Spot Total Total Cost per Aired Spending Aired Spending SpotBarack Obama 553,782 46.0% $ 261,767,528 36.8% $ 473Mitt Romney 250,876 20.9% $ 180,875,414 25.4% $ 721Obama + Ally 618,681 51% $ 297,403,284 42% $ 481Romney + Allies 584,466 49% $ 413,711,009 58% $ 708 1,203,147 100% $711,114,293 100% $ 591Competitive spending estimates from Polaris/NMRPP
    26. 26. Anti-Romney vs. Pro-Romney TV Ads
    27. 27. Impact of Political on Other Advertising Category Share of Market Ad TimePolitics Politics Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos TotalShare< 2% 0.5% 13.7% 9.5% 4.3% 54.4% 17.7% 100.0%2-5% 3.2% 13.8% 8.1% 4.4% 53.2% 17.3% 100.0%5-10% 7.1% 13.4% 7.9% 3.7% 50.2% 17.8% 100.0%10-20% 13.7% 10.1% 7.7% 3.5% 47.0% 18.0% 100.0%20-30% 24.0% 9.7% 6.5% 2.7% 39.1% 18.0% 100.0%>30% 38.3% 6.0% 5.0% 2.6% 30.7% 17.4% 100.0%How To Read: In weeks when political share of ad time is less than 2%, autoshare of ad time average 13.7 % 32
    28. 28. Impact of Political on Other Advertising Category Share Ratio Of Market Ad TimePolitics % Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos Share < 2% 13.7% 9.5% 4.3% 54.4% 17.7% Ratio 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2-5% 5-10%10-20%20-30% >30% 33
    29. 29. Impact of Political on Other Advertising Category Share Ratio of Market Ad TimePolitics % Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos Share <2% 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2-5% 1.01 0.85 1.03 0.98 0.98 5-10% 0.98 0.82 0.87 0.92 1.0110-20% 0.74 0.81 0.83 0.86 1.0220-30% 0.71 0.69 0.64 0.72 1.02 >30% 0.44 0.53 0.60 0.56 0.98 34

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