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Nate Silver - What Do Poker, Presidential Elections, & Sports Have in Common with Big Data? - Data Summit

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Nate Silver, Statistician, Author & Founder, ESPN'S FiveThirtyEight blog

His presentation at the 4A's Data Summit on Oct. 16 in NYC. Visit http://datasummit.aaaa.org/ for more information.

Published in: Sports, Technology, Spiritual
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Nate Silver - What Do Poker, Presidential Elections, & Sports Have in Common with Big Data? - Data Summit

  1. 1. Big Data… Big Problems?
  2. 2. Big Data… Big Problems?
  3. 3. Big Data… Big Problems?
  4. 4. The Lessons of 2012 The 538 Method (Simplified) 1. Average the Polls 2. Count to 270 3. Account for Margin of Error
  5. 5. The Lessons of 2012
  6. 6. The Lessons of 2012
  7. 7. The Lessons of 2012
  8. 8. The Lessons of 2012 “nate silver” “joe biden”
  9. 9. The Lessons of 2012 “justin bieber”
  10. 10. Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?
  11. 11. Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?
  12. 12. Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?
  13. 13. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio
  14. 14. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio
  15. 15. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio
  16. 16. Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/sports.png
  17. 17. Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal
  18. 18. Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal
  19. 19. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence” a 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 b c d e f g h
  20. 20. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence” Kasparov +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +3 +5 +9 = 29 Deep Blue +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +5 +5 +9 = 30
  21. 21. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence” a 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 b c d e f g h
  22. 22. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence” a 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 b c d e f g h
  23. 23. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence” a 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 b c d e f g h
  24. 24. Problem #3: Feature or Bug?
  25. 25. Problem #3: Feature or Bug?
  26. 26. Problem #3: Feature or Bug?
  27. 27. Suggestions
  28. 28. Suggestions 1. Think Probabilistically 2. Know Where You’re Coming From 3. Try, and Err
  29. 29. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically Flood Prediction: 49’ Levee: 51’
  30. 30. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically Margin of Error: ±9’ Flood Prediction: 49’ Levee: 51’
  31. 31. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically
  32. 32. Suggestion #2: Know Where You’re Coming From
  33. 33. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err 100% 80% 60% Accuracy 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% Effort 80% 100%
  34. 34. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
  35. 35. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err 100% 80% 60% Accuracy 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% Effort 80% 100%
  36. 36. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
  37. 37. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err 100% 80% 60% Accuracy 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% Effort 80% 100%
  38. 38. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err 100% 80% 60% Accuracy 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% Effort 80% 100%
  39. 39. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err 100% Water level 80% 60% Accuracy 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% Effort 80% 100%
  40. 40. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err 100% Competitive Advantage 80% 60% Accuracy 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% Effort 80% 100%
  41. 41. Suggestions 1. Think Probabilistically 2. Know Where You’re Coming From 3. Try, and Err
  42. 42. Suggestions (Know Your Limitations) 2. Know Where You’re Coming From 3. Try, and Err
  43. 43. Suggestions (Know Your Limitations) (Consider Your Assumptions) 3. Try, and Err
  44. 44. Suggestions (Know Your Limitations) (Consider Your Assumptions) (Refine Your Process)
  45. 45. Suggestions “In Science, We Seek to Balance Creativity and Skepticism” -- Michael Babyak, PhD, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Science, Duke University Medical Center

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